February 2023 Obs/Discussion

[WxWatcher007]

 

Was just talking about this the other day. It’s up there too with some of the CT greats but kinda gets lost in the shuffle with the other big dogs. 

 

 

[Sey-Mour Snow]

  On 2/11/2023 at 2:40 PM, ORH_wxman said:

Most in here would prefer snow but since there’s no chance anyway, give us the 65-70….beats garbage 40s/50s and clouds/showers. 
 

Then hopefully we can grab a big dog before calling it a season. 

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Exactly. 

[ORH_wxman]

  On 2/11/2023 at 2:44 PM, WxWatcher007 said:

 

Was just talking about this the other day. It’s up there too with some of the CT greats but kinda gets lost in the shuffle with the other big dogs. 

 

 

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ORH had 24.5” from the Feb 1899 storm. Not sure why their graphic says 13.5….even the map shows 20s over central MA. 
 

But yeah….that one was a doozy. Already a lot of snow OTG prior to it too. 

[Sey-Mour Snow]

Weenie range of ensembles still looking cold. Let’s see how long this lasts and if we can get it into day 10. Would be nice to sneak in a wintry few weeks from Feb 25-March 15th then flip warm in a perfect world. 
 

 

[Typhoon Tip]

  On 2/11/2023 at 2:31 PM, CoastalWx said:

Seems like good chance 65-70 Thursday and maybe Friday. Can’t wait for the nudity to envelop us all.

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It's sooo close to being a legit 'heat burst'   - not that there is any kind of formal definition for what heat burst means.  I figure it's gotta feel actually really warm, and not just high 'nape' value - not that there is any kind of formal definition for what nape means ... etc etc.  LOL. 

Seriously though, it's a new kind of phenomenon, the likes of which - for me anyway... - I had never experienced in my ...ah, let's call it 'multi-decades' life span.  Anyway, its when any winter month hosts a period of summer temperatures. It's obviously less likely in Dec and Jan.  Those two months don't have the advantage of the sun leaving the solar minimum era of the total solar calendar - which is the case in February.   That's prooobably a prerequisite for this sort of thing.  Although, I've seen it be 74 in Dec... once, back in 1999 I think it was.

Even if it's only 12 hours... I figure 75 is the fair distinction.  Otherwise it's just global warming in the air  - haha. 

Probably shouldn't refer to these sudden synoptic heat plume events as heat bursts, though, as the name is already designated in the AMS Glossary. Thermodynamics are complex, but outflow from convection causes an explosive rise in temperatures - counter intuitive to the idea of cold outflow.  But what happens is, the air goes through extreme/rapid drying, and then is compressed. It's more common where mountain topography vanishes out into a lower planar region - I've heard of heat bursts raising the temperature from 55 to 103 in S. Dakota for example...

what the f am I talking about.     I just wanted a distinction for the 'special' 2017, 2018, and 2020 type summer flash synoptics.  That as a specific characterization separates its self from like yesterdays 'historic' aspects.

[Damage In Tolland]

  On 2/11/2023 at 2:51 PM, Typhoon Tip said:

It's sooo close to being a legit 'heat burst'   - not that there is any kind of formal definition for what heat burst means.  I figure it's gotta to feel actually really warm, and not just high 'nape' value - not that there is any kind of formal definition for what nape means ... etc etc.  LOL. 

Seriously though, it's a new kind of phenomenon, the likes of which - for me anyway... - I had never experienced in my ...ah, let's call it 'multi-decades' life span.  Anyway, its when winter month host a period of summer temperatures.

Even if it's only 12 hours... I figure 75 is the fair distinction.  Otherwise it's just a global warming - haha. 

Probably shouldn't refer to these sudden synoptic heat plume events as heat bursts, though, as the name is already designated in the AMS Glossary. Thermodynamics are complex, but outflow from convection causes an explosive rise in temperatures - counter intuitive to the idea of cold outflow.  But what happens is, the air goes through extreme/rapid drying, and then is compressed. It's more common where mountain topography vanishes out into a lower planar region - I've heard of heat bursts raising the temperature from 55 to 103 in S. Dakota for example...

what the f am I talking about.     I just wanted a distinction for the 'special' 2017, 2018, and 2020 type summer flash synoptics.  That as a specific characterization separates its self from like yesterdays 'historic' aspects.

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It’s a Sonoran 

[ORH_wxman]

  On 2/11/2023 at 2:43 PM, rimetree said:

Congrats NS on the NAM

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Too bad this one couldn’t back up 50-100 miles. We had just enough cold in place to produce a fun event if it had. Nice little feed of low DP air down the Maine coast. 
 

Oh well….in other winters maybe it would have. No SE ridge to bump it north when we need it…but the SE ridge returns to push the next 3 or 4 systems through the St Lawrence valley. 

[jbenedet]

  On 2/11/2023 at 2:50 PM, Sey-Mour Snow said:

Weenie range of ensembles still looking cold. Let’s see how long this lasts and if we can get it into day 10. Would be nice to sneak in a wintry few weeks from Feb 25-March 15th then flip warm in a perfect world. 
 

 

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What am I missing. This looks a lot like persistence. Gradient oriented with climo over northeast. Very Workable for interior NNE. Everyone else fighting warm sectors and ptype issues.

[ORH_wxman]

  On 2/11/2023 at 3:15 PM, jbenedet said:

What am I missing. This looks a lot like persistence. Gradient oriented with climo over northeast. Very Workable for interior NNE. Everyone else fighting warm sectors and ptype issues.

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It’s an H5 map…not a temp map. That’s cold for New England. I’m skeptical of it verifying but when you look at the temp level, it’s cold. 
 

 

[SnoSki14]

  On 2/11/2023 at 2:34 PM, MJO812 said:

Who wants that ?

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I agree it's not healthy. It's going to throw everything out of whack 

A day or two of 60+ is fine but we've already had a record warm Jan. GFS gives us multiple rounds of 60+ and even 70+ temperatures in mid Feb.

[Ginx snewx]

  On 2/11/2023 at 2:44 PM, WxWatcher007 said:

 

Was just talking about this the other day. It’s up there too with some of the CT greats but kinda gets lost in the shuffle with the other big dogs. 

 

 

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That was perhaps the greatest snowstorm and Arctic outbreak in the countries history. Every single Gulf state had heavy snow.

[jbenedet]

  On 2/11/2023 at 3:15 PM, ORH_wxman said:

Too bad this one couldn’t back up 50-100 miles. We had just enough cold in place to produce a fun event if it had. Nice little feed of low DP air down the Maine coast. 
 

Oh well….in other winters maybe it would have. No SE ridge to bump it north when we need it…but the SE ridge returns to push the next 3 or 4 systems through the St Lawrence valley. 

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The NAM is literally all alone, and has been for 48 hrs. Now it’s pulling NS’ leg.  
 

BS threat isn’t close on the GFS or Euro. Needed 100 miles; bc the south coast MA and RI is warm. 

[Typhoon Tip]

  On 2/11/2023 at 2:55 PM, Damage In Tolland said:

It’s a Sonoran 

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Sort of ..yeah.  

The total Sonoran heat release model is - to me ... because I'm a staggering dork - fascinating synoptically.  What actually happens is, it is led off by a period of +PNAP. 

Not necessarily a "+PNA"    - there is an important distinction between the two.  The +PNA involves the total local hemispheric manifold/circulation mode, from basically the Date Line across N/A.  I think the exact coordinates can be found ..etc.  But when we say PNAP, we refer to the Perennial North American Pattern.  That pattern is described by a modest 'bulge' in the basal flow characteristics, in the heights over western N/A, due to the prevailing westerly flow incurring upon the western N/A mountain cordillera.  The flow rises over it, and then the C-force causes it to turn polarward.  A standing ridge becomes discernible over the perennial mean.   The flow then tapers back S as it's leaving eastern N/A.   

That distinction offers an opportunity to distinguish 'event machinery' - PNA tied to total atmospheric modes/modality, whereas + OR - PNAP can move with that, or just be transitively influenced ... Similar to the NAO in that respect.  The NAO demos more stochastic observation of its mode states because these stem wound maritime bombs occasionally sequence through that domain space ... setting off quickly recovering negative and positive index values. They may not represent the longer term return mode, either... - gets into headaches.  

So anyway, with the "SHR" ... the modest +PNAP    "caps" heat and it cooks over couple of few days... really loading an H850 level kinetically charged layer..  This layer is pretty evident on soundings; often associated with an EML type profiles... but the two can exists independently..   So what happens is, the +PNAP gets perturbed and tries to go negative - if not succeeding.  This dislodges said plume of KC8 air ...  Given the amount of -PNAP determines the arc in which the KC8 ejection moves down stream... Sometimes it's south through the TV ...Other times it takes the N route -   "Hot Saturday"/ Aug '75 was an ejected plume that got caught up and rattled around the N route and came down from the NW.  That's why our hottest summer events come from a W or W/NW direction. 

That whole long-ass sermon above may or may not have preceded the 2017, 2018, 2020 events...etc.  It is likely too early in the year to cook up the KC8 layer ..etc.  But, we can certainly get a very amplified -PNAP and/or -PNA, that pulls air out of Tx ( for example ...) - 'quasi' creates a weak variation on the same overall theme. 

[jbenedet]

  On 2/11/2023 at 3:17 PM, ORH_wxman said:

It’s an H5 map…not a temp map. That’s cold for New England. I’m skeptical of it verifying but when you look at the temp level, it’s cold. 
 

 

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No kiddin’. It also looks like this is “as good as it gets” —next panel at hr 384 already near normal.

The deepest cold is still way out west. The big troughing still out west. Storms are going to want to amplify early just east of the Rockies and bend back, producing high risk of warm sectoring, around here. 
 

This look is shit for 75%. The hope should be that it’s wrong. 

[Ginx snewx]

  On 2/11/2023 at 3:20 PM, jbenedet said:

The NAM is literally all alone, and has been for 48 hrs. Now it’s pulling NS’ leg.  
 

BS threat isn’t close on the GFS or Euro. Needed 100 miles; bc the south coast MA and RI is warm. 

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How much of your forecasted snow did Atlanta get?

[snowman19]

  On 2/11/2023 at 3:15 PM, jbenedet said:

What am I missing. This looks a lot like persistence. Gradient oriented with climo over northeast. Very Workable for interior NNE. Everyone else fighting warm sectors and ptype issues.

The thing that’s striking is that if the widely hyped SSW is going to downwell to the troposphere and do something to the polar/arctic fields you want to start seeing some sort of response with the NAM/AO and NAO. That’s not happening on the models through 2/28. It’s +AO/+NAO right through. If we get to the 1st week of March and there’s still no response or at least one definitely imminent, I doubt it’s ever going to happen

[jbenedet]

  On 2/11/2023 at 3:28 PM, Ginx snewx said:

How much of your forecasted snow did Atlanta get?

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Yea I was wrong about Atlanta. Thanks for remembering. Right about this crap staying south of northeast though.

You have been wrong the whole season though. So cheers. 

 

[WinterWolf]

  On 2/11/2023 at 2:50 PM, Sey-Mour Snow said:

Weenie range of ensembles still looking cold. Let’s see how long this lasts and if we can get it into day 10. Would be nice to sneak in a wintry few weeks from Feb 25-March 15th then flip warm in a perfect world. 
 

 

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As you said…can we get that closer?  Never seems to happen this year.  At this point I won’t be disappointed if it shits the bed like it has all season(or the nuances Fook us again like in December).  The persistent and constant ways that we’ve been screwed is quite the enigma in and of itself this year.  Sad for winter lovers in SNE. 

[WinterWolf]

  On 2/11/2023 at 3:26 PM, jbenedet said:

No kiddin’. It also looks like this is “as good as it gets” —next panel at hr 384 already near normal.

The deepest cold is still way out west. The big troughing still out west. Storms are going to want to amplify early just east of the Rockies and bend back, producing high risk of warm sectoring, around here. 
 

This look is shit for 75%. The hope should be that it’s wrong. 

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At 384 hrs…it probably is wrong. And if that SSW has any affect at all, it will probably be morphing into something different than what this shows out in clown range. 
 

Bottom line…it’s been the worst winter of my lifetime here in SNE…it can’t get any worse from here on out. And the next 5.5 weeks of winter either stays the same(horrible), or it gets a lil better.  But we are rock bottom now. So thats the only good thing at the moment.

[40/70 Benchmark]

  On 2/11/2023 at 2:12 PM, snowman19 said:

@40/70benchmark Your idea of a slow downwelling of the warming to the troposphere is looking pretty good. What actually happens in March ??? I would think the AO/NAO at least become less hostile and maybe some blocking develops but I seriously doubt the RNA goes away.

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If you read my last blog update, RNA is here to stay. That is on par with 1956 analog. I was right about the break from it in January, but unfortunately is was heavily west-based.

 

[WxWatcher007]

  On 2/11/2023 at 2:47 PM, ORH_wxman said:

ORH had 24.5” from the Feb 1899 storm. Not sure why their graphic says 13.5….even the map shows 20s over central MA. 
 

But yeah….that one was a doozy. Already a lot of snow OTG prior to it too. 

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Where does that snow total rank all time for ORH?

[jbenedet]

  On 2/11/2023 at 3:42 PM, WinterWolf said:

At 384 hrs…it probably is wrong. And if that SSW has any affect at all, it will probably be morphing into something different than what this shows out in clown range. 
 

Bottom line…it’s been the worst winter of my lifetime here in SNE…it can’t get any worse from here on out. And the next 5.5 weeks of winter either stays the same(horrible), or it gets a lil better.  But we are rock bottom now. So thats the only good thing at the moment.

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I’m most concerned by this look as it means more pack building in Northern ME, QC and NB, which I think is a harbinger of a significant -NAO developing in March. This in turn keeps storm tracks Mid Atlantic—>south.
 

If you’re looking for mean reversion - N to BN and dry would be it. And that’s also multi year persistence. I hope this is dead wrong.

[40/70 Benchmark]

  On 2/11/2023 at 4:04 PM, jbenedet said:

I’m most concerned by this look as it means more pack building in Northern ME, QC and NB, which I think is a harbinger of a significant -NAO developing in March. This is in turn keeps storm tracks Mid Atlantic—>south.
 

If you’re looking for mean reversion - N to BN and dry would be it. And that’s also multi year persistence. I hope this is dead wrong.

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That would be a reapest of my futility season of 1979-80.

[40/70 Benchmark]

  On 2/11/2023 at 9:39 AM, moneypitmike said:

There was one probably 7-10 years ago at the Northampton Brewery to assist CT and WOR folks.

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I was there. 

[40/70 Benchmark]

  On 2/11/2023 at 3:29 PM, snowman19 said:

The thing that’s striking is that if the widely hyped SSW is going to downwell to the troposphere and do something to the polar/arctic fields you want to start seeing some sort of response with the NAM/AO and NAO. That’s not happening on the models through 2/28. It’s +AO/+NAO right through. If we get to the 1st week of March and there’s still no response or at least one definitely imminent, I doubt it’s ever going to happen

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I have never expected it until March...transition is last week of Feb. Guidance is often slow to respond to the strat stuff even when it works out. 

[40/70 Benchmark]

  On 2/11/2023 at 3:30 PM, WinterWolf said:

As you said…can we get that closer?  Never seems to happen this year.  At this point I won’t be disappointed if it shits the bed like it has all season(or the nuances Fook us again like in December).  The persistent and constant ways that we’ve been screwed is quite the enigma in and of itself this year.  Sad for winter lovers in SNE. 

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Its tough to remind people of this during the winter of Murphy's law, but RNA/-NAO can be glorious when the energy doesn't dig to baja. Keep rifling PAC waves into a block.

I do agree that if we are spinning our wheels first week of March, then its over.

[40/70 Benchmark]

  On 2/11/2023 at 3:30 PM, jbenedet said:

Yea I was wrong about Atlanta. Thanks for remembering. Right about this crap staying south of northeast though.

You have been wrong the whole season though. So cheers. 

 

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To be fair, this season has made many look bad.

[40/70 Benchmark]

  On 2/11/2023 at 4:04 PM, jbenedet said:

I’m most concerned by this look as it means more pack building in Northern ME, QC and NB, which I think is a harbinger of a significant -NAO developing in March. This in turn keeps storm tracks Mid Atlantic—>south.
 

If you’re looking for mean reversion - N to BN and dry would be it. And that’s also multi year persistence. I hope this is dead wrong.

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RNA/-NAO is not a mid atl pattern.  Not saying they won't see some snow, but it's not the type of pattern in which I generally fear suppression. 

[STILL N OF PIKE]

  On 2/11/2023 at 2:50 PM, Sey-Mour Snow said:

Weenie range of ensembles still looking cold. Let’s see how long this lasts and if we can get it into day 10. Would be nice to sneak in a wintry few weeks from Feb 25-March 15th then flip warm in a perfect world. 
 

 

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Just tilt that last image to the left and you will see the Trough dig in SW and the ridge pop a bit more off SE coast , hope that PV shows up with some press . Has been tenor of the season with so many of the good looks 10 days out this season . Won’t continue till we die but that’s my default till I see more of a change 

[ORH_wxman]

  On 2/11/2023 at 4:03 PM, WxWatcher007 said:

Where does that snow total rank all time for ORH?

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That would be 6th or 7th I think.