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February 2023 Obs/Discussion


Baroclinic Zone
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2 hours ago, CoastalWx said:

Friday will be a true downslope dandy.

First nape day ?

Btw (you’ll love this) … today marks the end of the perennial solar minimum … begins the solar transition. It’s like saying it’s the first day of ‘sun spring’.  

Subtle at first will ensue a steadily increasing but noticeably warmer and warmer direct sun sensation. And yes .., exposed parked cars … even on cold days … will tend to toast inside. HAHA the best part!

I’ve noticed this many years ago as pretty coherent upon this time every February … Then upon later learning of the solar min/tran/max.  It was like a ‘whoa. right!’ moment. Made perfect sense. 

Anyway … it’s probably as good a date as any to designate the beginning of ‘nape season’. It’s when light wind sunny moments … even in comparably cold air gives that allusion …almost “protection” inside a fragile soothing bubble. And the car thing. Etc. I’ve walked down the street in calm, 33 F air under cobalt blue sky, immersed in mid February sun and could swear it must be much warmer. 

Actually ...Friday looks too breezy for the direct exposure aspect.
 

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Fwinotw - the 12z NAM is about 5 to 10kts stronger with the wind max carving down the Rockies at 18 hours... I'm not on Pivotal or faster intake sites - relying on TT at the moment... but that "could" translate favorably along the EC out in time.  we'll see -

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49 minutes ago, WinterWolf said:

Let em enjoy a couple warm days here and there…it won’t last. I’ll enjoy them too…but ya, we all would rather it be snowing at the snowiest time of the year. 

“couple warm days here and there”

Denial ain’t a river in Egypt.

I just make the best of what I can’t control. Misery is close otherwise.

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1 hour ago, WinterWolf said:

Ya..I think everybody knows the caveats and low chances.  But you’ll be here for 12z to see what the next cycle shows, and so will I. 

Yep...all the Tblizz's of the world will be dutifully clicking on the 12z runs regardless of what they say about it having no chance.

They like preaching to the choir though....as if 90+% of the posters here don't already know it's a long shot. :lol:

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25 minutes ago, jbenedet said:

“Few warm days here and there”

Denial ain’t a river in Egypt.

I just make the best of what I can’t control. Misery is close otherwise.

Actually I believe the saying goes…Denial IS a River in Egypt. 
 

It’s been mild obviously, but the days haven’t been to warm or nice overall. It’s sucked actually. 

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28 minutes ago, TauntonBlizzard2013 said:

What are the chances of that in central Maine? Lol

 

Sounds like you are above normal YTD

See 2006.  Thru Jan 31 that winter we were 1" AN.   Feb 1 onward, 36" BN - FMA avg 44.3", 2006: 7.8", biggest storm (and only one 2"+) was 2.8".

Currently 7" AN YTD.

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1 minute ago, Typhoon Tip said:

12z GFS is the more likely solution for that thing...  which, not without sensitivity to the matter, is like a maleficent turn through a burn ward with a spritzer of rubbing alcohol ... oh well.

No other guidance is really even close to what the eps are selling.

 

good luck to the folks riding the euro 

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