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February 2023 Obs/Discussion


Baroclinic Zone
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  On 2/8/2023 at 1:21 AM, WinterWolf said:

18z Shenanigans as usual? Or legit trend?  

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12z trended better now 18z as well if 00z continues then I’d call it legit. Going to need all models to come to some sort of slight consensus the next 24-48 hours before any of us really bite. In the mean time there is literally nothing else for us to look at weather wise so we track. 

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  On 2/8/2023 at 1:34 AM, Sey-Mour Snow said:

12z trended better now 18z as well if 00z continues then I’d call it legit. Going to need all models to come to some sort of slight consensus the next 24-48 hours before any of us really bite. In the mean time there is literally nothing else for us to look at weather wise so we track. 

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Oh I agree…and that’s what we do here. But I’d have to agree that if 0z continues then it’s definitely a trend.  
 

As TBlizz said above, you’d think we’d have to run into something at some point? I mean to run the whole winter and dodge every single snow chance is almost impossible for SNE…even in a ratter. 

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  On 2/8/2023 at 1:57 AM, RUNNAWAYICEBERG said:

When we salivate over >1” probability maps….

Yours truly,

winter of 22/23

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Tales from "you know winter is bad when..." the saga continues

Something to keep an eye on obviously but chances are very low imo consider the airmass, ensemble support etc but atleast its trending the right direction. 

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  On 2/7/2023 at 6:41 PM, Typhoon Tip said:

May come stormin' back N whence the relay gets underway this evening and overnight. 

Not a forecast - but there is a non-zero probability that this thing's missing something due to assimilation over the E Pac. 

Some of this system's getting lost to us in recent runs is also related to the handling of the western ridge and the N/stream sliding over top of it.  We had some implications for phasing up through a couple day's ago, but now the ridge is positively tilting and the N/stream is displacing E of the southern aspect ...thus missing phasing.  Not sure if that part can correct and probably won't, but in the off chance the southern aspect relays in stronger it could adjust that along the EC.

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Bump for relevancy … we’ll have see if the N reposition by GFS was just a coincidence 

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Poor BOX. My Lord have they gone downhill . Sleet and zr to the south coast  . How about stop making love to their pike north love affair and looking at actual surface obs and wet bulbs . Embarrassing 

The CT river valley
and locations south of the MA/CT border should remain warm enough to
support mostly rain.

R2rclPd.png

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  On 2/8/2023 at 2:11 AM, Damage In Tolland said:

Poor BOX. My Lord have they gone downhill . Sleet and zr to the south coast  . How about stop making love to their pike north love affair and looking at actual surface obs and wet bulbs . Embarrassing 

The CT river valley
and locations south of the MA/CT border should remain warm enough to
support mostly rain.

R2rclPd.png

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Didn’t the WWA go right to the MA/CT border? 

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