Great Snow 1717 Posted February 7, 2023 Share Posted February 7, 2023 1 minute ago, Snowcrazed71 said: Who am I kidding, I'm not going anywhere..... Whether we get something or not. 25 years ago I would have been able to do these adventures with no problem as I wasn't tied down. It'll come to us at some point ( My life is actually very good, so I don't mind being tied down now ) .....just tell her you are going to visit your aunt Agnes who is ill.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jbenedet Posted February 7, 2023 Share Posted February 7, 2023 It's actually really warm out ahead of the front. 50 in Rochester NY last hour. Evening highs on deck before the peltfest? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted February 7, 2023 Share Posted February 7, 2023 34 minutes ago, SnowGoose69 said: Correct...09-10 was by a whisker weak enough it did not torch but most of those snow events in 09-10 the air was barely cold enough...it was quite close to being a 97-98 repeat but things were just weak enough the pattern did not get overwhelmed It wasn't that it was "a whisker weak enough". It was a totally different type of el nino from the ones that torch. It was the polar opposite of 97-98..not remotely close and total opposite from it on the modoki spectrum. A better way to phrase it is that if it were slightly stronger, than it probably would have been more east based and canonical on the modoki spectrum. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
STILL N OF PIKE Posted February 7, 2023 Share Posted February 7, 2023 58 minutes ago, powderfreak said: Why do we care so much if it shows snow down there? Lol. Couldn’t give 2 shiats. Let it snow there , it ain’t coming here Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Torch Tiger Posted February 7, 2023 Share Posted February 7, 2023 15 hours ago, George001 said: You excited about the weather the next week or 2? A run at 70 isn’t out of the question, might be able to get some golfing in. Yeah, we're all very excited for Spring things. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted February 7, 2023 Share Posted February 7, 2023 15 minutes ago, STILL N OF PIKE said: Couldn’t give 2 shiats. Let it snow there , it ain’t coming here It adds insult to injury IMO. I'd rather just torch the whole east coast. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Great Snow 1717 Posted February 7, 2023 Share Posted February 7, 2023 Just now, Torch Tiger said: Yeah, we're all very excited for Spring things. it's been spring since early november.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HIPPYVALLEY Posted February 7, 2023 Share Posted February 7, 2023 2 minutes ago, Great Snow 1717 said: it's been spring since early november.. It’s been November since early November Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Sey-Mour Snow Posted February 7, 2023 Share Posted February 7, 2023 EPS much more interested in Saturday PM. She’s on life support but it’s all we have for 10-15 days. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
STILL N OF PIKE Posted February 7, 2023 Share Posted February 7, 2023 11 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said: It adds insult to injury IMO. I'd rather just torch the whole east coast. If i was following this for several days and it slipped just south and hit Philly to NYC / Long Island that would bother me , This has been trending south for days , I hope some weenie in Raleigh is born , but even so I’m not buying this storm doing much for anyone as of now Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted February 7, 2023 Share Posted February 7, 2023 Nice model war in clown range. EPS way colder than GEFS. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted February 7, 2023 Share Posted February 7, 2023 2 minutes ago, Sey-Mour Snow said: EPS much more interested in Saturday PM. She’s on life support but it’s all we have for 10-15 days. I think that is more for the 13th. But it's on real life support. I saw the member distribution. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowGoose69 Posted February 7, 2023 Share Posted February 7, 2023 1 minute ago, ORH_wxman said: Nice model war in clown range. EPS way colder than GEFS. The GEFS IMO the last 6 weeks has been a bit too strong with the SER in the D10-15 time period...it probably has still overall been winning the war on the idea but I think for sure the less happy EPS/GEPS (most of the time anyway) on the SER idea have been better since December 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted February 7, 2023 Share Posted February 7, 2023 7 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said: Nice model war in clown range. EPS way colder than GEFS. Switch 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Sey-Mour Snow Posted February 7, 2023 Share Posted February 7, 2023 8 minutes ago, CoastalWx said: I think that is more for the 13th. But it's on real life support. I saw the member distribution. It’s the Saturday night through Sunday night threat on guidance. EPS is more of a Sunday deal the 12th. 10 of 51 ensembles have a warning snow from me to you. Let’s see if the signal can at least hold or intensify at 00z, every other threat just vanishes after showing a positive run. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Sey-Mour Snow Posted February 7, 2023 Share Posted February 7, 2023 5 minutes ago, Typhoon Tip said: Switch 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted February 7, 2023 Share Posted February 7, 2023 5 minutes ago, Typhoon Tip said: Switch EPS still has the potential heat burst before that…but beyond 2/20, EPS looks to go for a much colder CONUS look…we’d still get some mild wx at times through 2/23ish, but then it looks a lot colder after that. We’ll see. I don’t trust any LR guidance at the moment for good reason…but that look is starting to become somewhat persistent on the Euro products. GEFS still not buying it. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted February 7, 2023 Share Posted February 7, 2023 5 minutes ago, Sey-Mour Snow said: It’s the Saturday night through Sunday night threat on guidance. EPS is more of a Sunday deal the 12th. 10 of 51 ensembles have a warning snow from me to you. Let’s see if the signal can at least hold or intensify at 00z, every other threat just vanishes after showing a positive run. Yeah I'd say Sunday into Monday-ish....but I'll sell that for now. A few drunk members skewing it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted February 7, 2023 Share Posted February 7, 2023 3 minutes ago, Sey-Mour Snow said: Yeah good illustration of the differences. Look at the ridge axis on EPS…it’s in the gulf of Alaska versus the Aleutians on GEFS. About a 600-800 mile difference and it matters. EPS has a hint of an Aleutian low forming way on the left side of that image whereas none in site on GEFS. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Sey-Mour Snow Posted February 7, 2023 Share Posted February 7, 2023 6 minutes ago, CoastalWx said: Yeah I'd say Sunday into Monday-ish....but I'll sell that for now. A few drunk members skewing it. Well Let’s get them all some roofies and get a Super Bowl Sunday snowstorm. 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted February 7, 2023 Share Posted February 7, 2023 2 minutes ago, Sey-Mour Snow said: Well Let’s get them all some roofies and get a Super Bowl Sunday snowstorm. Hopefully they can Sey-Mour snow. 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted February 7, 2023 Share Posted February 7, 2023 20 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said: EPS still has the potential heat burst before that…but beyond 2/20, EPS looks to go for a much colder CONUS look…we’d still get some mild wx at times through 2/23ish, but then it looks a lot colder after that. We’ll see. I don’t trust any LR guidance at the moment for good reason…but that look is starting to become somewhat persistent on the Euro products. GEFS still not buying it. yup...last 10 days of the month. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
STILL N OF PIKE Posted February 7, 2023 Share Posted February 7, 2023 13 minutes ago, Typhoon Tip said: yup...last 10 days of the month. Or 8 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
wxeyeNH Posted February 7, 2023 Share Posted February 7, 2023 Meanwhile here are the have's and have nots. My pack is like a glacier. It has so much frozen water and sleet mixed in. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EastonSN+ Posted February 7, 2023 Share Posted February 7, 2023 1 hour ago, Sey-Mour Snow said: The EC has the MJO wave progress steadily into phase 8 while the GEFS kills the wave in 7 (Typhoon said this would happen). Likely the reason for the difference in the ensembles. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Snowcrazed71 Posted February 7, 2023 Share Posted February 7, 2023 18 minutes ago, EastonSN+ said: The EC has the MJO wave progress steadily into phase 8 while the GEFS kills the wave in 7 (Typhoon said this would happen). Likely the reason for the difference in the ensembles. So the question is which way will it go. Is there one that would be more reliable than the other? Does one have more support than the other? 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
The 4 Seasons Posted February 7, 2023 Share Posted February 7, 2023 1 hour ago, Sey-Mour Snow said: Well Let’s get them all some roofies and get a Super Bowl Sunday snowstorm. All rain and no snow makes Jack a dull boy All rain and no snow makes Jack a dull boy All rain and no snow makes Jack a dull boy All rain and no snow makes Jack a dull boy All rain and no snow makes Jack a dull boy All rain and no snow makes Jack a dull boy All rain and no snow makes Jack a dull boy All rain and no snow makes Jack a dull boy 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted February 7, 2023 Share Posted February 7, 2023 2 hours ago, Sey-Mour Snow said: It’s the Saturday night through Sunday night threat on guidance. EPS is more of a Sunday deal the 12th. 10 of 51 ensembles have a warning snow from me to you. Let’s see if the signal can at least hold or intensify at 00z, every other threat just vanishes after showing a positive run. Sell hard 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted February 7, 2023 Share Posted February 7, 2023 3 hours ago, Hoth said: 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted February 7, 2023 Share Posted February 7, 2023 2 minutes ago, Ginx snewx said: Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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