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February 2023 Obs/Discussion


Baroclinic Zone
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1 minute ago, Snowcrazed71 said:

Who am I kidding, I'm not going anywhere..... Whether we get something or not. 25 years ago I would have been able to do these adventures with no problem as I wasn't tied down. It'll come to us at some point ( My life is actually very good, so I don't mind being tied down now )

.....just tell her you are going to visit your aunt Agnes who is ill..

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34 minutes ago, SnowGoose69 said:

 

Correct...09-10 was by a whisker weak enough it did not torch but most of those snow events in 09-10 the air was barely cold enough...it was quite close to being a 97-98 repeat but things were just weak enough the pattern did not get overwhelmed 

It wasn't that it was "a whisker weak enough". It was a totally different type of el nino from the ones that torch. It was the polar opposite of 97-98..not remotely close and total opposite from it on the modoki spectrum.

A better way to phrase it is that if it were slightly stronger, than it probably would have been more east based and canonical on the modoki spectrum. 

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11 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

It adds insult to injury IMO. I'd rather just torch the whole east coast.

If i was following this for several days and it slipped just south and hit Philly to NYC / Long Island that would bother me , This has been trending south for days , I hope some weenie in Raleigh is born , but even so I’m not buying this storm doing much for anyone as of now 

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1 minute ago, ORH_wxman said:

Nice model war in clown range. EPS way colder than GEFS. 

 

The GEFS IMO the last 6 weeks has been a bit too strong with the SER in the D10-15 time period...it probably has still overall been winning the war on the idea but I think for sure the less happy EPS/GEPS (most of the time anyway) on the SER idea have been better since December

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8 minutes ago, CoastalWx said:

I think that is more for the 13th. But it's on real life support. I saw the member distribution. 

It’s the Saturday night through Sunday night threat on guidance. EPS is more of a Sunday deal the 12th. 10 of 51 ensembles have a warning snow from me to you.  Let’s see if the signal can at least hold or intensify at 00z, every other threat just vanishes after showing a positive run. 

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5 minutes ago, Typhoon Tip said:

Switch

EPS still has the potential heat burst before that…but beyond 2/20, EPS looks to go for a much colder CONUS look…we’d still get some mild wx at times through 2/23ish, but then it looks a lot colder after that. We’ll see. I don’t trust any LR guidance at the moment for good reason…but that look is starting to become somewhat persistent on the Euro products. GEFS still not buying it. 

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5 minutes ago, Sey-Mour Snow said:

It’s the Saturday night through Sunday night threat on guidance. EPS is more of a Sunday deal the 12th. 10 of 51 ensembles have a warning snow from me to you.  Let’s see if the signal can at least hold or intensify at 00z, every other threat just vanishes after showing a positive run. 

Yeah I'd say Sunday into Monday-ish....but I'll sell that for now. A few drunk members skewing it.

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3 minutes ago, Sey-Mour Snow said:

 

49AA001D-8718-4669-883E-1C4E973A3A8A.png

DB7BE220-728D-46D2-A934-C1C493C06D51.png

Yeah good illustration of the differences. Look at the ridge axis on EPS…it’s in the gulf of Alaska versus the Aleutians on GEFS. About a 600-800 mile difference and it matters. EPS has a hint of an Aleutian low forming way on the left side of that image whereas none in site on GEFS. 

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20 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said:

EPS still has the potential heat burst before that…but beyond 2/20, EPS looks to go for a much colder CONUS look…we’d still get some mild wx at times through 2/23ish, but then it looks a lot colder after that. We’ll see. I don’t trust any LR guidance at the moment for good reason…but that look is starting to become somewhat persistent on the Euro products. GEFS still not buying it. 

yup...last 10 days of the month. 

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18 minutes ago, EastonSN+ said:

The EC has the MJO wave progress steadily into phase 8 while the GEFS kills the wave in 7 (Typhoon said this would happen).

Likely the reason for the difference in the ensembles.

So the question is which way will it go. Is there one that would be more reliable than the other? Does one have more support than the other?

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1 hour ago, Sey-Mour Snow said:

Well Let’s get them all some roofies and get a Super Bowl Sunday snowstorm. 

All rain and no snow makes Jack a dull boy All rain and no snow makes Jack a dull boy All rain and no snow makes Jack a dull boy All rain and no snow makes Jack a dull boy All rain and no snow makes Jack a dull boy All rain and no snow makes Jack a dull boy All rain and no snow makes Jack a dull boy All rain and no snow makes Jack a dull boy 

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2 hours ago, Sey-Mour Snow said:

It’s the Saturday night through Sunday night threat on guidance. EPS is more of a Sunday deal the 12th. 10 of 51 ensembles have a warning snow from me to you.  Let’s see if the signal can at least hold or intensify at 00z, every other threat just vanishes after showing a positive run. 

Sell hard 

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