kdxken Posted February 7, 2023 Share Posted February 7, 2023 1 hour ago, RUNNAWAYICEBERG said: This has been the strangest winter in my lifetime. Lows along the BM with no cold to tap into, continuous WC troughing, plenty of rain to satisfy Stein, and when we finally get cold it’s dry Siberia. 80s on roids. The good news is the atmosphere is capable of being ultra persistent so you have to think one winter it could be this favorable for us…with continuous EC troughing and trains of snows. A lighter Feb15 type of persistency but longer. We tried to tell ya. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jbenedet Posted February 7, 2023 Share Posted February 7, 2023 1 hour ago, RUNNAWAYICEBERG said: This has been the strangest winter in my lifetime. Lows along the BM with no cold to tap into, continuous WC troughing, plenty of rain to satisfy Stein, and when we finally get cold it’s dry Siberia. 80s on roids. The good news is the atmosphere is capable of being ultra persistent so you have to think one winter it could be this favorable for us…with continuous EC troughing and trains of snows. A lighter Feb15 type of persistency but longer. Pretty sure that’s just the definition of a ratter. Some call it an odd winter; others call it a rat. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jbenedet Posted February 7, 2023 Share Posted February 7, 2023 1 hour ago, powderfreak said: -2F Wasn’t really expecting that this morning. It’s actually cold out. -4F and -5F for HIE/BML while MWN is 27F. Meh. It’s bottled up north and heading east. Western upstate NY says “what cold”. Normal low here. Normal high on tap. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Sey-Mour Snow Posted February 7, 2023 Share Posted February 7, 2023 14 minutes ago, jbenedet said: Pretty sure that’s just the definition of a ratter. Some call it an odd winter; others call it a rat. You seem angry this morning. Sorry for the rough morning. Well as others have said, in many rats you get a complete shit pattern with zero potential for snow, but this winter in December and then late January we actually had serviceable patterns, very favorable actually in December. So you'd expect us to be at least in the slightly below average to average in snowfall department compared to the 0-10" for many on the season. 2 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Sey-Mour Snow Posted February 7, 2023 Share Posted February 7, 2023 14 minutes ago, jbenedet said: Meh. It’s bottled up north and heading east. Western upstate NY says “what cold”. Normal low here. Normal high on tap. Nothing to write home about but definitely cold and average to below average for many away from the warm lakes. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted February 7, 2023 Share Posted February 7, 2023 50 minutes ago, Allsnow said: Your bet looking better and better by the day I see you have said the same thing 4 times. You want in? Offer still stands as the original bet. BOTH ORH and BDL futility put up or SU 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted February 7, 2023 Share Posted February 7, 2023 Scooter trying hard to troll NNE peeps. 2 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted February 7, 2023 Share Posted February 7, 2023 1 hour ago, ORH_wxman said: GFs is trying to cancel it. Still there on euro though. Haha... I was just going to say... well, actually, I was going to say, "the GFS has no interest in a warm up at all" ... In fact, that looks like a steady diet of flat waves capable of snow right through the SE ridge flex. ...actually it does have a cutter, too. little hyperbole. Re the Euro: its precarious synoptics, nearing D10 ( high confidence, I know!), totes an 850 mb continental WCB with 850mb of +13C. The PGF suggests 15-20 kts of tumbling mix, too. I checked the RH fields just for shits and giggles and they're nada on clouds. 700, 500, 300's all < 50% RH at 18z preceding... That would be probably 74F day. Yep... here we go again. Just like to remind, ...we put up mid 80s off 13C at 850, as we went super adiabat - dry air heat late winter into early spring, prior to green up, can mix BL very tall. That was in 2017. The point is...it can happen, not claiming any analog. So ironically, heat has a mechanism for over producing prior to the continental DP sucking kinetic heat. That said, precarious should be underscored. The entire Canadian shield is actually -20 or lower at 850 mb, if/when very stupidly using the Euro at this range. And actually ...the gradient between the warm tongue of air described above, and that cold mass near by in Canada, is very steep. This is like sniffing out a mere warm sector to me ( wrt the Euro...), more so than defining an extended pattern stay. I mean it seems that way.. That cold lurking by, which is present in GEFs ensemble systems too... so a smidge of cross guidance support on the gradient idea.., is a mere synoptic giga movement from ending any debate. Well anyway... I realize the La Nina climo this, and historic precedence for torching that... yup, all that. But we have to pay attention to metrics too, and a progressive pattern trend with embedded opportunities for amplitude, with so much cold loaded not far away, could also lend to GFS type evolution - even if its perhaps overdoing it. The funny thing is... if you took the GFS' 00z snow event around that time, and averaged with the Euros 74 F utopia, what do you get? The same 42 F cloudy p.o.s. agonizingly uninspired boring winter we've had all along. Yup...that's my official forecast... piece of shit. LOL 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted February 7, 2023 Share Posted February 7, 2023 10 minutes ago, Sey-Mour Snow said: You seem angry this morning. Sorry for the rough morning. Well as others have said, in many rats you get a complete shit pattern with zero potential for snow, but this winter in December and then late January we actually had serviceable patterns, very favorable actually in December. So you'd expect us to be at least in the slightly below average to average in snowfall department compared to the 0-10" for many on the season. Hey did you know CT has dial up wx stations in Hamden Windsor Griswold? Also links to like 8 years of data for every day. https://portal.ct.gov/CAES/Weather-Data/Weather/Remote-Weather-Data 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mahk_webstah Posted February 7, 2023 Share Posted February 7, 2023 50 minutes ago, CoastalWx said: I’d rather you guys keep it. Going up north in less than two weeks. That could be quite shitty timing, unless the next winters period has starting. Potentially could be very good timing. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted February 7, 2023 Share Posted February 7, 2023 5 minutes ago, Sey-Mour Snow said: Nothing to write home about but definitely cold and average to below average for many away from the warm lakes. Nothing but heat Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Sey-Mour Snow Posted February 7, 2023 Share Posted February 7, 2023 1 minute ago, Ginx snewx said: Hey did you know CT has dial up wx stations in Hamden Windsor Griswold? Also links to like 8 years of data for every day. https://portal.ct.gov/CAES/Weather-Data/Weather/Remote-Weather-Data Awesome thanks cool to have that link. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted February 7, 2023 Share Posted February 7, 2023 2 minutes ago, Sey-Mour Snow said: Awesome thanks cool to have that link. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted February 7, 2023 Share Posted February 7, 2023 wouldn't that be hilarious... I can see that in the opening scene of a comedic genre film, where there's rush to cut to commercial because the star of the movie, a hapless on-camera talen, loses it, and his/her exit interview is an extended outlook that that says, "piece of shit" for the next 10 days 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RUNNAWAYICEBERG Posted February 7, 2023 Share Posted February 7, 2023 35 minutes ago, jbenedet said: Pretty sure that’s just the definition of a ratter. Some call it an odd winter; others call it a rat. Stay angry your holiness. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
STILL N OF PIKE Posted February 7, 2023 Share Posted February 7, 2023 Ratter Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted February 7, 2023 Share Posted February 7, 2023 21 minutes ago, Ginx snewx said: Scooter trying hard to troll NNE peeps. You missed my last post I guess. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jbenedet Posted February 7, 2023 Share Posted February 7, 2023 20 minutes ago, Sey-Mour Snow said: Nothing to write home about but definitely cold and average to below average for many away from the warm lakes. Did I meh this already? Those single digits are way up an in. By and large pretty close to normal by the looks of it. PSM: 34/16 normal high/low. Bottomed out at 21 at PSM; 21 even up to DAW. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Sey-Mour Snow Posted February 7, 2023 Share Posted February 7, 2023 2 minutes ago, jbenedet said: Did I meh this already? Those single digits are way up an in. By and large pretty close to normal by the looks of it. PSM: 34/16 normal high/low. Bottomed out at 21 at PSM; 21 even up to DAW. Ya these were the 7am temps Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HIPPYVALLEY Posted February 7, 2023 Share Posted February 7, 2023 24 minutes ago, mahk_webstah said: That could be quite shitty timing, unless the next winters period has starting. Potentially could be very good timing. Beginning of MA school vacation week and Presidents Weekend. We are heading up to see friends in North Conway. I half expect a torching cutter. Seems to happen frequently for that weekend just like our Christmas grinch storms. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted February 7, 2023 Share Posted February 7, 2023 5 minutes ago, CoastalWx said: You missed my last post I guess. Did not see it saw the 10 others. Have fun up there. Should be nice and snowy 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted February 7, 2023 Share Posted February 7, 2023 32 minutes ago, Sey-Mour Snow said: You seem angry this morning. Sorry for the rough morning. Well as others have said, in many rats you get a complete shit pattern with zero potential for snow, but this winter in December and then late January we actually had serviceable patterns, very favorable actually in December. So you'd expect us to be at least in the slightly below average to average in snowfall department compared to the 0-10" for many on the season. Every year has it's own 'personality' ... I agree this year's been a little unusual - to put it softly ... - wrt to the bold statement. I mentioned this to Will when commiserating yesterday, that this year has been strangely failing in despite some more advantaged/conventional aspects. Take 2006-2007.. At least through mid January, that year had no conventional aspects. Nothing... it was utterly shut completely down, both pattern, and contained events. 0 winter definition. Period. For 45 days... This year, that was not true... yet, may as well be the same result. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted February 7, 2023 Share Posted February 7, 2023 1 minute ago, Ginx snewx said: Did not see it saw the 10 others. Have fun up there. Should be nice and snowy Not sure about that lol. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jbenedet Posted February 7, 2023 Share Posted February 7, 2023 I was just doing a cursory check of the temp guidance for highs today - AGAIN looks really low vs 850 temps, and no surface CAD and lots of sun until afternoon. What gives? 33 for a high at PSM ??? 40 seems pretty damn doable. 42 makes more sense to me than 33. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted February 7, 2023 Share Posted February 7, 2023 Just now, CoastalWx said: Not sure about that lol. Little Snow tonight for the interior peeps with just a little ice a good bet. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RUNNAWAYICEBERG Posted February 7, 2023 Share Posted February 7, 2023 38 minutes ago, Sey-Mour Snow said: You seem angry this morning. Sorry for the rough morning. Well as others have said, in many rats you get a complete shit pattern with zero potential for snow, but this winter in December and then late January we actually had serviceable patterns, very favorable actually in December. So you'd expect us to be at least in the slightly below average to average in snowfall department compared to the 0-10" for many on the season. Yea, that was my point. It wasn’t a 11/12 rat. WC troughs aren’t a death sentence but it certainly was in Jan with no cold in SE Canada. Dec was super odd we couldn’t cash in either. It’s a rat no doubt, just a strange one. Pope is doing what the pope does..berate others opinions, chastise snow lovers, and stroke his little goose in the process. 1 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted February 7, 2023 Share Posted February 7, 2023 I want to think that Sunday or Monday tries for us. I want to believe lol. But, 2022-2023. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jbenedet Posted February 7, 2023 Share Posted February 7, 2023 1 minute ago, RUNNAWAYICEBERG said: Yea, that was my point. It wasn’t a 11/12 rat. WC troughs aren’t a death sentence but it certainly was in Jan with no cold in SE Canada. Dec was super odd we couldn’t cash in either. It’s a rat no doubt, just a strange one. Pope is doing what the pope does..berate others opinions, chastise snow lovers, and stroke his little goose in the process. Nah man. Just calling a spade a spade. Literally a ratter is N to BN when there are no storm threats, and AN when there are storms. That is it. Don't make it complicated. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted February 7, 2023 Share Posted February 7, 2023 7 minutes ago, jbenedet said: I was just doing a cursory check of the temp guidance for highs today - AGAIN looks really low vs 850 temps, and no surface CAD and lots of sun until afternoon. What gives? 33 for a high at PSM ??? 40 seems pretty damn doable. 42 makes more sense to me than 33. I've been noticing this for years, actually. I don't look at any MOS or 2-meter T products anymore, as my ability to quick calc the adiabat and adding some perfunctory ( CC ?) five. That does vastly superior to any of those machine interpolations. It's weird that all modeling technology, despite any source ... is low on 2-m, always. Well - not always... If it's inundated saturation, sure. I don't believe - seriously - that's CC.. I think there's a systemic problem in mixing/BL handling. It's hard to know for certain what drives that. It's also typically worse from roughly now through early August... every year. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted February 7, 2023 Share Posted February 7, 2023 9 minutes ago, CoastalWx said: Not sure about that lol. Period surrounding the 18th looks pretty good for a major and plenty of cold up there to tap. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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