February 2023 Obs/Discussion

[CoastalWx]

10 minutes ago, Ginx snewx said:

Sad winter in SNE. Well I guess I could look at it this way. 7 years ago today, heavy heavy wet snow. No power 2 days

Yeah that was a nice event. Absolute paste job if I’ve ever seen one. 
 

 

[JKEisMan]

I was mildly hopeful for the upcoming stretch, but the trend this season has been undeniable.

This winter has blown its chunks, head stuck in the toilet and fingers trembling on the lever to flush this piece of trash into the abyss.

[Typhoon Tip]

20 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said:

Yeah that event is likely toast. But I’ll give it another cycle or two. Then we deal with a monster SE ridge for the next week beyond that…next potential for snow would be last week of Feb imho if 2/12 doesn’t produce. 

That looks gaining traction and is intriguing - imho...

I'm still unsure on the mid month 'warm burst' potential - the scale and degree of that. It may only be a series or rotted warm sectors ... with putrid cool backs, while the TV sees a run at 70 F...or, recent history combined with ...blah blah blah telecon spread certainly would allow for bigger balloon. 

After that, the GEFs and the GEPs suggest the entire NH PV slips off it's axis and winds up situated over the N archipelago of Canada... This was hinted over the last several days ...but at 300+ hours, it could just be the entropic state from all the noise of spaghetti averaging... etc.   This last night, though ... it has take on real/more structure ...   We'll see -

The distant numerical indexes did not really reflect that look, but ... it's almost a look that fits inside a neutral field. The PNA looks so-so +, the EPO so -, the AO flat-lined. But the PV is just tilted off the axis of the typical geography, and repositions on our side of the hemisphere, by just enough.   interesting...

[wxeyeNH]

32 minutes ago, dendrite said:

21° here and 34° for Gene. This should mix out quickly this morning. 

Yeah,nice and warm on the hill this AM

[ORH_wxman]

1 minute ago, Typhoon Tip said:

That looks gaining traction and is intriguing - imho...

I'm still unsure on the mid month 'warm burst' potential - the scale and degree of that. It may only be a series or rotted warm sectors ... with putrid cool backs, while the TV sees a run at 70 F...or, recent history combined with ...blah blah blah telecon spread certainly would allow for bigger balloon. 

After that, the GEFs and the GEPs suggest the entire NH PV slips off it's axis and winds up situated over the N archipelago of Canada... This was hinted over the last several days ...but at 300+ hours, it could just be the entropic state from all the noise of spaghetti averaging... etc.   This last night has take on real structure though..   We'll see -

The distant numerical indexes did not really reflect that look, but ... it's almost a look that fits inside a neutral field. The PNA looks so-so +, the EPO so -, the AO flat-lined. But the PV is just tilted off the axis of the N on our side of the hemisphere, by just enough.   interesting...

Yeah the ridge is a little offshore so it sort of renders the PNA neutral...but we have cross polar flow and a pretty robust PV on our side of the hemisphere....so I could definitely see a wintry stretch in late Feb/early Mar for one last run at something meaningful. It could easily crap out though....so people shouldn't start expecting a grand finale....though in this winter, an 8 inch snow event would be considered a "Grand finale"....so we'll see. I'd obviously wait until we're much closer to put more definitive odds on seeing something wintry.

[40/70 Benchmark]

36 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said:

Yeah that event is likely toast. But I’ll give it another cycle or two. Then we deal with a monster SE ridge for the next week beyond that…next potential for snow would be last week of Feb imho if 2/12 doesn’t produce. 

Some locales are going to be primed for a run at futility.

[40/70 Benchmark]

29 minutes ago, Typhoon Tip said:

That looks gaining traction and is intriguing - imho...

I'm still unsure on the mid month 'warm burst' potential - the scale and degree of that. It may only be a series or rotted warm sectors ... with putrid cool backs, while the TV sees a run at 70 F...or, recent history combined with ...blah blah blah telecon spread certainly would allow for bigger balloon. 

After that, the GEFs and the GEPs suggest the entire NH PV slips off it's axis and winds up situated over the N archipelago of Canada... This was hinted over the last several days ...but at 300+ hours, it could just be the entropic state from all the noise of spaghetti averaging... etc.   This last night, though ... it has take on real/more structure ...   We'll see -

The distant numerical indexes did not really reflect that look, but ... it's almost a look that fits inside a neutral field. The PNA looks so-so +, the EPO so -, the AO flat-lined. But the PV is just tilted off the axis of the typical geography, and repositions on our side of the hemisphere, by just enough.   interesting...

It's a good example of why I keep telling that snowman dude to stop cramming tweets of PV charts down people's throats....you don't need a complete evisceration of the arctic to see snow in New England.

[mahk_webstah]

55 minutes ago, dendrite said:

I’d have to rate this winter an A+ so far. 2 11”+ events, a deep pack the past couple of weeks, a warm and snowy January, and a brief record cold airmass to start Feb.

I guess it all depends on what the criteria are. From a snow perspective I would imagine that the only A+ season is really 2007 2008 with 2010-11 as an A.  But if your criteria is not too much intense cold, a period of deep winter, with a snow pack to get out and enjoy, and then some nice warm ups then this winter might turn out to be a really good one. A B so far, with points taken off for the slow start, and the number of days with no sun.  A warm-up soon, followed by another week or two of deep winter, and then a quick transition to spring would make this a A for me.

[mahk_webstah]

45 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said:

Yeah that event is likely toast. But I’ll give it another cycle or two. Then we deal with a monster SE ridge for the next week beyond that…next potential for snow would be last week of Feb imho if 2/12 doesn’t produce. 

If these systems this week all go liquid, we could really melt out quite a bit this week although there will still be snow in the woods for sure because it doesn’t look to get that warm. But it’s also quite possible that we have snow to rain and we stayed pretty cold and mostly keep our 10 to 18 inch snow pack.  It is a very resilient pack.

[CoastalWx]

Rains to Lewiston Maines.

[HoarfrostHubb]

Kevin might get his 4 pack of Julius

[ORH_wxman]

13 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

Some locales are going to be primed for a run at futility.

If we get through the final week of February, then maybe....but nobody is really that compelling at the moment in the BOX stations....I think BDR (OKX office) has a non-hail mary shot though. They are sitting at 0.8 inches right now with their record at 8.2 inches.

[STILL N OF PIKE]

7 minutes ago, mahk_webstah said:

If these systems this week all go liquid, we could really melt out quite a bit this week although there will still be snow in the woods for sure because it doesn’t look to get that warm. But it’s also quite possible that we have snow to rain and we stayed pretty cold and mostly keep our 10 to 18 inch snow pack.  It is a very resilient pack.

I favored you being at peak pack last week , but it can still break either way . Thou I wouldn't change my semi educated guess 

[Cold Miser]

1 hour ago, The 4 Seasons said:

 

Yup.  Pretty much.  Tuned up snow blower looking for something to chew up...might as well be me, while enjoying that wiener in the balmy February sun.  
I will be putting her back in the shed pretty soon. Usually I wait until the beginning of April. Not this god forsaken year. 

[Hoth]

I just noticed some little red buds on the maple outside my bedroom. That's insane. Something one would more typically expect in April.

[forkyfork]

look at it this way. it snowed 7 years ago

[ORH_wxman]

2 minutes ago, SnoSki14 said:

The futility zone is further south. Most places south of 41N have seen less than an inch.

Yeah hopefully you can set a new record there. S CT into Mid-atlantic has an outside shot this year.

[SnoSki14]

3 minutes ago, Hoth said:

I just noticed some little red buds on the maple outside my bedroom. That's insane. Something one would more typically expect in April.

With near 60 in the forecast and days getting longer I anticipate a lot more budding 

[Sey-Mour Snow]

1 minute ago, ORH_wxman said:

Yeah hopefully you can set a new record there. S CT into Mid-atlantic has an outside shot this year.

Next 10-15 days look shot too. This is a truly impressive mean to be this snowless.  .8” mean over my hood. 

[Hoth]

1 minute ago, SnoSki14 said:

With near 60 in the forecast and days getting longer I anticipate a lot more budding 

Hearing a lot of spring-like birdsong, too. Just a real anachronistic feel to things right now.

[STILL N OF PIKE]

2 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said:

Yeah hopefully you can set a new record there. S CT into Mid-atlantic has an outside shot this year.

Ya I mean there is such a large difference between a ratter and futility . Plenty of ratters, and this is likely a strong one for all 4 SNE stations 

[CoastalWx]

1 minute ago, STILL N OF PIKE said:

Ya I mean there is such a large difference between a ratter and futility . Plenty of ratters, and this is likely a strong one for all 4 SNE stations 

It's a lock to rat. We might have 1-2 week window late Feb into early month before a retorch. 

[Great Snow 1717]

1 minute ago, STILL N OF PIKE said:

Ya I mean there is such a large difference between a ratter and futility . Plenty of ratters, and this is likely a strong one for all 4 SNE stations 

As things stand right now this has been one of the "easiest" winters ever..

[Rtd208]

8 minutes ago, forkyfork said:

look at it this way. it snowed 7 years ago

It might not snow for another 7 years the way things are going. 

[Rtd208]

7 minutes ago, SnoSki14 said:

With near 60 in the forecast and days getting longer I anticipate a lot more budding 

I anticipate alot more bitching. 

[CoastalWx]

1 minute ago, Rtd208 said:

I anticipate alot more bitching. 

60? Won't hear me complain.

[Damage In Tolland]

13 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said:

Yeah hopefully you can set a new record there. S CT into Mid-atlantic has an outside shot this year.

All 4 SNE sites have a very decent chance 

[ORH_wxman]

5 minutes ago, CoastalWx said:

60? Won't hear me complain.

I'd love to dry out the ground a bit....With all the rain we've had, plus the recent freeze (now thawing) and the small amount of snow we had in late January....the ground is pretty damp. I'd take 60 and dry....but 46F and rain will just make me want to stick needles in my eyes, lol

[dendrite]

41 minutes ago, mahk_webstah said:

I guess it all depends on what the criteria are. From a snow perspective I would imagine that the only A+ season is really 2007 2008 with 2010-11 as an A.  But if your criteria is not too much intense cold, a period of deep winter, with a snow pack to get out and enjoy, and then some nice warm ups then this winter might turn out to be a really good one. A B so far, with points taken off for the slow start, and the number of days with no sun.  A warm-up soon, followed by another week or two of deep winter, and then a quick transition to spring would make this a A for me.

My criteria is a blend of my old winter weenie ways and what’s good for my birds and plants. So basically not too cold, a decent pack to insulate the ground, and then maybe a 2 week stretch of deeper winter with a good storm in there. So you can check all of those boxes off. I would probably have preferred a little less QPF this winter, but you can’t have it all. I don’t like the big cold anymore, but I used to weenie out over it so if it’s going to be brutal at least make the airmass record breaking. So another check mark there.

Yeah it has sucked a bit south of here, but I’ve seriously been enjoying it up here. The snow banks are still really damn high as of this morning. It’s a deep winter look. 

[CoastalWx]

8 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said:

I'd love to dry out the ground a bit....With all the rain we've had, plus the recent freeze (now thawing) and the small amount of snow we had in late January....the ground is pretty damp. I'd take 60 and dry....but 46F and rain will just make me want to stick needles in my eyes, lol

Definitely need to dry it out. Back to mud again.