February 2023 Obs/Discussion

[NorEastermass128]

I lost track. Did BOS beat futility with 1/23?  

[ORH_wxman]

1 minute ago, NorEastermass128 said:

I lost track. Did BOS beat futility with 1/23?  

What futility are you referring to

[Typhoon Tip]

Hm  -14 F was my bottom temperature during that day and half cold blast, registered around 5:15 am yesterday morning.  

It is now 49.   That is a 63 pt temperature recovery in < 36 hours.    You know, I could see this spring hosting another big correction.  Some kind of unusually nasty back door event. 

Late on March 31, 1997, ended an astounding early, historic heat burst throughout much of New England, when a potent BD front brought shock and awe.  It was 91 F at 3pm on the UML Weather Lab station monitor, while CAR, ME was reporting 40 KT NE gusts with temperatures in the 30s - not exact numbers but close to it...  I've waxed nostalgia over that event before. Needless to say, ... it was 38 F by the next morning on that same monitor under slate gray pall sky out the windows.   We know BDs can do it going in that direction...  I can imagine a nasty BD air mass with 38 F in Boston in early April, while it's 74 at ALB and 88 at PIT.  ...Maybe not the next day, but the day after, it's 89 at Logan with flags waving offshore.

There's been notable corrections going in both directions.  I've also spun history regarding the late January 1994 day up in Lowell, when a cutter low through the eastern Lakes corrected a dawn reading of 9 F ( 9!) all the way to 62 F with southerly gales, within the same 12 hour span of time.  Steam billows rolled off snow banks and piles like Kelvin Hemholt clouds over a mountain range.   Not sure which scenario was more impressive, this one, or the March 31 BD in '97. 

So... looks like the head scratching might come to an end.  The D8 + cinema from all deterministic guidance, is finally coming around to the overwhelming telecon aspects.   I would not be surprised if a 2017 type warm burst may be trying to formulate out there.  For now...not as is. But the background scaffolding is highly convergent in the prognostics.   +AO/+NAO/-PNA/MJO in superposition with the longer term Nina climatology/recent decadal precedence for warm bursting in Feb/Mar/Apr...  I could see the following D10 synoptic aspect getting more impressive in future guidance cycles.  

[weathafella]

10 minutes ago, NorEastermass128 said:

I lost track. Did BOS beat futility with 1/23?  

I think it's still on the table.

[moneypitmike]

4 hours ago, Typhoon Tip said:

EPS was the most use for winter enthusiasts...

GEFs and GEPs, ... not so much.   And of these two, the GEPs vs the EPS may as well be modeling a different year - 0 likeness within the Lakes - M/A - NE triangulum.   None as far as I can see.  

Longer op ed ... That, in itself, is unusually highly dispersed even considering it is a cross guidance comparison.   They don't "have to" be the same, and typically there'll be some variance, but at D7 ...the weight of the entire ensemble cluster of each "tends" to at least present that they are f'ing modeling on the same planet when it comes to that range.   

But this...

 

...is definitely a bit unusual for an entire modeling system comparison to be that diametric.  I'm sure it's happened before, but as someone who is fairly diligent in checking/comparing all three, GEFs, GEPs, and EPS... I can say with confidence this is pushing it.  

The GEFs is just about exactly between these extremes.

Anyway, enough of that... The bottom line, this is a scenario next week plagued by two issues, simultaneously:  

1 .. Difficult trough handling due to varying degrees of model-self-imposed destructive interference; we can see that with the lead wave vs the aft wave. The Euro cluster puts more mechanically conserved weight on the aft. At the other ends... the GEPs put almost none there, and uses the front side wave almost entirely.  Again, the GEFs really looks evenly split.  

2 .. I suspect pattern change is also throwing a non-linear ( unseen) disruption with model performance.  Folks may not like it - or if they are human, they may even have breached the ''nough is a 'nough' threshold and may even embrace it. I don't know...but all this could go away after this particular threat if the long term global scaled telecons drop the other shoe.  That "might" be trying to assert as we head through the next 7 days...  It's like trying to finish a building when the scaffolding is changing.

In practical terms... the EPS has a better performance record in the late mid/early extended range.  Don't quote that.. it is just based on my anecdotal observation in comparing over the years when needed.   It's not a hugely better, but edges. The above solution variance ...heh, just a weee bit more than edging difference, though. That's going to be an interesting contest this time.  Not sure with the GEFs vs, any longer, as NCEP is "ensemble" ( puns are free!) line releasing new versions of the deterministic, it seems, every 18 months. I don't know if that effects any of the individual members? I don't think so - don't see why they'd need to do that. At a 101 perspective, the intent there is to offer dispersed solutions.  Anyway,  I wanna say the GEFs may be edging the EPS a little more these days, anyway, jjust because I know first hand that the GEFs went west with the Buffalo Bomb back in Dec before the EPS did. That was kind of an important specter to f-up, huh. It's like remembering a really amazing tasting meal ... except for that fly's wing you found in the sauce. You don't tend forgot such details ...  

The 12z to 00z EPS was a solid trend in the right direction, with spatial (location) showing exceptional continuity between those two cycles. Also, while deepening ( in the means) the surface pressure.  That's like powdered 'construction of coastal', just add water ( ...well, "snow" would be preferred).   But as you can see above ...it is situating the low in the climate wheel-house for much of the area.   The only draw down in this illustration is that the 850 mb is challenged for cold air... that pesky metric at this range/product typically used.  The 00z run/mean cuts the 0c isotherm from just N of HFD to just S of BOS ..with +1 over N CT/RI SE zones... and -1 up to the NH border.  That's a marginal atmosphere by definition - weak thermal gradient + or - 0C

Did Tip's teachers ever read his papers or did they just write an "A" and move on to the next one?

 

1 hour ago, Damage In Tolland said:

Three things in life that are so satisfying 

1) Admiring the lawn after a fresh mowing especially in May into June 

2) Admiring freshly and exquisitely sculpted snow banks after shoveling 

3) Admiring freshly washed , waxed and shined up vehicles 

 

You forgot:  

4) admiring installed window-units in March

5) admiring uninstalled window units in September

[Great Snow 1717]

30 minutes ago, moneypitmike said:

Did Tip's teachers ever read his papers or did they just write an "A" and move on to the next one?

 

 

You forgot:  

4) admiring installed window-units in March

5) admiring uninstalled window units in September

They did something even worse than that, they used his papers as examples for how all of the other students in class should write papers...

[512high]

3 minutes ago, Great Snow 1717 said:

They did something even worse than that, they used his papers as examples for how all of the other students in class should write papers...

I said it before, he is a bright individual he would have made a great MET professor , very thorough, although half the time I am lost, but love the flashback or stories to compare past future events etc

[Great Snow 1717]

Just now, 512high said:

I said it before, he is a bright individual he would have made a great MET professor , very thorough, although half the time I am lost, but love the flashback or stories to compare past future events etc

He is a talented writer!

[NorEastermass128]

55 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said:

What futility are you referring to

 

47 minutes ago, weathafella said:

I think it's still on the table.

 

[Typhoon Tip]

10 minutes ago, NorEastermass128 said:

 

 

I think he meant snow ... ?  

I thought Boston got a couple inches -no?  

First of all, what is considered 'futility'?        If it is zero snow at all, that's going to be next to impossible when by policy a flurry under a busted open virga CU counts as a trace.    If it is short seasonal totals, ...what qualifies.  I think anything under 20" does.  But I suppose that's just getting into subjectivity.  

I'm sitting at 18" ( give or take an inch) for the season, and I consider this futile - to date.  Much of the snow that has happened is aggregated < 3" occurrences - in other words, nearly meaningless impact.   A winter with so low if not no impact from winter weather ( and mere cold doesn't count), is - to me - by definition a futile trip. 

 

[40/70 Benchmark]

Things I missed while having the kids all day and being off line.....

0

[NorEastermass128]

41 minutes ago, Typhoon Tip said:

I think he meant snow ... ?  

I thought Boston got a couple inches -no?  

First of all, what is considered 'futility'?        If it is zero snow at all, that's going to be next to impossible when by policy a flurry under a busted open virga CU counts as a trace.    If it is short seasonal totals, ...what qualifies.  I think anything under 20" does.  But I suppose that's just getting into subjectivity.  

I'm sitting at 18" ( give or take an inch) for the season, and I consider this futile - to date.  Much of the snow that has happened is aggregated < 3" occurrences - in other words, nearly meaningless impact.   A winter with so low if not no impact from winter weather ( and mere cold doesn't count), is - to me - by definition a futile trip. 

 

By futility, I mean has BOS surpassed 1936-37 (?) seasonal SF. I think it’s right around 9.5”, give or take a couple tenths of an inch. I’m not sure where BOS stands on the season right now. 

[Modfan2]

Low of 9 this am to a high of 52, not to shabby!

[ORH_wxman]

15 minutes ago, NorEastermass128 said:

By futility, I mean has BOS surpassed 1936-37 (?) seasonal SF. I think it’s right around 9.5”, give or take a couple tenths of an inch. I’m not sure where BOS stands on the season right now. 

They are at 7.9” I think. Almost no chance for futility record. 

[78Blizzard]

2 hours ago, ORH_wxman said:

Outside of the 2/12 situation, looks quite boring until maybe late in the month. 

Attempting to close the blinds:

[40/70 Benchmark]

27 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said:

They are at 7.9” I think. Almost no chance for futility record. 

I think everyone of us would sign on the dotted line to worm-hole our way out of this god forsaken cold season, at this point. There is no bigger meteorological purgatory than a cold season that won't produce.

[Cold Miser]

6 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

I think everyone of us would sign on the dotted line to worm-hole our way out of this god forsaken cold season, at this point. There is no bigger meteorological purgatory than a cold season that won't produce.

...Only to be dumped into April, with backdoors, and continued missery.  This year, for many, misery from January, through April.  The definition of a perfect, Tobin-Swan-Dive storm. 

[ORH_wxman]

13 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

I think everyone of us would sign on the dotted line to worm-hole our way out of this god forsaken cold season, at this point. There is no bigger meteorological purgatory than a cold season that won't produce.

Yep. Unfortunately we prob have another 10 weeks of horseshit weather. Maybe we’ll get a good April for once but I usually assume it will suck and be pleasantly surprised if it doesn’t. 

[WinterWolf]

Just now, ORH_wxman said:

Yep. Unfortunately we prob have another 10 weeks of horseshit weather. Maybe we’ll get a good April for once but I usually assume it will suck and be pleasantly surprised if it doesn’t. 

Do you think we can pull off a warning event between now(2/5) and the end of March?  

[40/70 Benchmark]

7 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said:

Yep. Unfortunately we prob have another 10 weeks of horseshit weather. Maybe we’ll get a good April for once but I usually assume it will suck and be pleasantly surprised if it doesn’t. 

I still think March can be decent, but I'm done holding my breath and arguing against the ratter camp.

[Typhoon Tip]

18z GFS is trying ...sooo close. It's already got an ALB-CON (~) axis in 4 ...maybe 6"... pretty good frontogenic sig, too, so some banding in that swath probably.  

I think, also, we're battling that aspect I mentioned this morning, re the background pattern might also be attempting to pull the rug out from under matters, too.  The trough keeps getting more positively tilted, and "squeezed" from W-> <-E as well.   The ridge is the west is also getting more progressive on each run - probably atoning for the compression...  Anyway, this may actually be an avenue to getting some snow into the SNE, too, if this flattens out a little more.  We'd trade a lot of intensity off for a cold solution.  So you end up with oversold 3-5" deal - but that's 3-5" of fun before the Valentine's Day massacre change ( maybe..) sets in.  

The other notion surrounds the models tending to rush in pattern modulations so...we could see this tip back - not implausible.

I dunno... I sense many of us have fatigue at this point.   I can mention clad reasons for optimism, and have at times as of late     ... crickets.  I can mention in equal proportion, reasons to dread and that seems to follow a fervor of statements LOL.   .. I get it.  I'm objective about this though. Learning to compartmentalize hopes dreams wants and inspirations from aspects of reality, that inevitability dash those in seemingly perfect proportion to exact the sorest butt imaginable, is probably the greatest of all my unsung talents... haha

[Damage In Tolland]

42 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

I think everyone of us would sign on the dotted line to worm-hole our way out of this god forsaken cold season, at this point. There is no bigger meteorological purgatory than a cold season that won't produce.

It’s quite possible all 4 Climo sites set record low snow years . Right now we are shut out thru Feb 21… so that means we lost all Dec, Jan and first 3 weeks Feb. . At that point Foc it . Even the most diehard will admit it’s over and end it. 

[ORH_wxman]

25 minutes ago, WinterWolf said:

Do you think we can pull off a warning event between now(2/5) and the end of March?  

Yeah sure. Of course we could. 

[powderfreak]

27 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said:

Yep. Unfortunately we prob have another 10 weeks of horseshit weather. Maybe we’ll get a good April for once but I usually assume it will suck and be pleasantly surprised if it doesn’t. 

Reminds me of your constant wisdom that might as well still try to root for snow if it’s possible because the alternative is just horrible weather.  Everyone is just over rooting for it though.

[STILL N OF PIKE]

37 minutes ago, WinterWolf said:

Do you think we can pull off a warning event between now(2/5) and the end of March?  

Do You mean “do you think we will “ 

anyone down to the Deep South can 

I would bet that  say SE of  Portland to Concord/MHT to the Berks Will not  see a Wide spread warning event 

[powderfreak]

1 minute ago, STILL N OF PIKE said:

You mean “do you think we will “ 

anyone down to the Deep South can 

lol yeah that’s a loaded question.

Can a climo area that routinely pulls warning events in Feb and March possibly do it in those months?

[STILL N OF PIKE]

6 minutes ago, powderfreak said:

lol yeah that’s a loaded question.

Can a climo area that routinely pulls warning events in Feb and March possibly do it in those months?

I would put the betting odds at less than 50% that BOS/ PVD pulls a warning event 

[powderfreak]

8 minutes ago, STILL N OF PIKE said:

I would put the betting odds at less than 50% that BOS/ PVD pulls a warning event 

Yeah I would too but still very “possible.”

[Torch Tiger]

[CoastalWx]

Today felt really nice. Was good to get outside.