CoastalWx Posted February 5, 2023 Share Posted February 5, 2023 1 minute ago, RUNNAWAYICEBERG said: Nice to see the shifts east but gl trying to sparse through that wave spacing. Yeah messy for sure. Not sure about you, but I’d rather a whiff than more rain. 6 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RUNNAWAYICEBERG Posted February 5, 2023 Share Posted February 5, 2023 47 minutes ago, CoastalWx said: It’s as if the ensembles have been the most consistent beyond a week out and the op runs unstable. Wow. What an amazing concept! 1. Geese 2. ensembles 3. OP 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RUNNAWAYICEBERG Posted February 5, 2023 Share Posted February 5, 2023 Just now, CoastalWx said: Yeah messy for sure. Not sure about you, but I’d rather a whiff than more rain. 100% 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginx snewx Posted February 5, 2023 Share Posted February 5, 2023 1 hour ago, Baroclinic Zone said: Meh? 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted February 5, 2023 Share Posted February 5, 2023 4 minutes ago, Ginx snewx said: Meh? Lots of depression in TAN. 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mahk_webstah Posted February 5, 2023 Share Posted February 5, 2023 I feel kind of optimistic 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted February 5, 2023 Share Posted February 5, 2023 4 minutes ago, mahk_webstah said: I feel kind of optimistic Shocked 2 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jbenedet Posted February 5, 2023 Share Posted February 5, 2023 Basically waking up to a normal morning temp wise. Arctic air booted. SW winds. Nice. A little bit of sun will go a long way today. Guidance today overplaying the clouds in SNE again it seems. Looks like more sun than clouds all day, and with 850’s cooked, even SE NH will flirt with 50. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted February 5, 2023 Share Posted February 5, 2023 14 minutes ago, mahk_webstah said: I feel kind of optimistic WPC writing AFD naked on folding metal chairs? 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted February 5, 2023 Share Posted February 5, 2023 13 minutes ago, Damage In Tolland said: WPC writing AFD naked on folding metal chairs? He completely disrobes for those. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Baroclinic Zone Posted February 5, 2023 Author Share Posted February 5, 2023 37 minutes ago, Ginx snewx said: Meh? 32 minutes ago, CoastalWx said: Lots of depression in TAN. Rinse and repeat pattern. Yeah, MEH Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Baroclinic Zone Posted February 5, 2023 Author Share Posted February 5, 2023 My temp jumped from 24F to 37F between 730 and 830. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
STILL N OF PIKE Posted February 5, 2023 Share Posted February 5, 2023 1 hour ago, CoastalWx said: I don’t mind the ensemble look for a week out. hows the tropical forcing ..have you taken a looksie 1 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted February 5, 2023 Share Posted February 5, 2023 2 minutes ago, STILL N OF PIKE said: It’s ok for ski areas I agree Seemed ok here a week out. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mahk_webstah Posted February 5, 2023 Share Posted February 5, 2023 28 minutes ago, CoastalWx said: He completely disrobes for those. They’ve been pretty good as they don’t get caught in the emotional run to run swings. They’ve had a bit of a signal Friday Saturday for cne nne and even a bit of sne. i try to avoid the metal chairs; not sure what Swinging in Tolland was thinking. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mahk_webstah Posted February 5, 2023 Share Posted February 5, 2023 While some are tanning on the Seacoast I am strolling through the boreal woods at 17 degrees and there’s 15+ on the ground in the woods. It’s a different world up here in fah fah fah interior nne. terrified, I mean terrified, that that evil sun is gonna melt this out today or tomorrow. 7 4 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted February 5, 2023 Share Posted February 5, 2023 24 minutes ago, STILL N OF PIKE said: hows the tropical forcing ..have you taken a looksie Nope haha. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Baroclinic Zone Posted February 5, 2023 Author Share Posted February 5, 2023 48F turnaround now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cold Miser Posted February 5, 2023 Share Posted February 5, 2023 ...With the whopping 2 day deep freeze past us, and temps climbing above 32, I declare winter (in my area) down and out. While there is a brief chance that mouth to mouth resuscitation can be performed on Old Man Winter, the chances of revival are slim to none. That is all. Thank you. 2 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted February 5, 2023 Share Posted February 5, 2023 42 minutes ago, STILL N OF PIKE said: hows the tropical forcing ..have you taken a looksie From what I’ve seen and heard, it fades going into the western pacific. The forcing really looks like a non-factor. 2 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted February 5, 2023 Share Posted February 5, 2023 2 hours ago, CoastalWx said: I don’t mind the ensemble look for a week out. EPS was the most use for winter enthusiasts... GEFs and GEPs, ... not so much. And of these two, the GEPs vs the EPS may as well be modeling a different year - 0 likeness within the Lakes - M/A - NE triangulum. None as far as I can see. Longer op ed ... That, in itself, is unusually highly dispersed even considering it is a cross guidance comparison. They don't "have to" be the same, and typically there'll be some variance, but at D7 ...the weight of the entire ensemble cluster of each "tends" to at least present that they are f'ing modeling on the same planet when it comes to that range. But this... ...is definitely a bit unusual for an entire modeling system comparison to be that diametric. I'm sure it's happened before, but as someone who is fairly diligent in checking/comparing all three, GEFs, GEPs, and EPS... I can say with confidence this is pushing it. The GEFs is just about exactly between these extremes. Anyway, enough of that... The bottom line, this is a scenario next week plagued by two issues, simultaneously: 1 .. Difficult trough handling due to varying degrees of model-self-imposed destructive interference; we can see that with the lead wave vs the aft wave. The Euro cluster puts more mechanically conserved weight on the aft. At the other ends... the GEPs put almost none there, and uses the front side wave almost entirely. Again, the GEFs really looks evenly split. 2 .. I suspect pattern change is also throwing a non-linear ( unseen) disruption with model performance. Folks may not like it - or if they are human, they may even have breached the ''nough is a 'nough' threshold and may even embrace it. I don't know...but all this could go away after this particular threat if the long term global scaled telecons drop the other shoe. That "might" be trying to assert as we head through the next 7 days... It's like trying to finish a building when the scaffolding is changing. In practical terms... the EPS has a better performance record in the late mid/early extended range. Don't quote that.. it is just based on my anecdotal observation in comparing over the years when needed. It's not a hugely better, but edges. The above solution variance ...heh, just a weee bit more than edging difference, though. That's going to be an interesting contest this time. Not sure with the GEFs vs, any longer, as NCEP is "ensemble" ( puns are free!) line releasing new versions of the deterministic, it seems, every 18 months. I don't know if that effects any of the individual members? I don't think so - don't see why they'd need to do that. At a 101 perspective, the intent there is to offer dispersed solutions. Anyway, I wanna say the GEFs may be edging the EPS a little more these days, anyway, jjust because I know first hand that the GEFs went west with the Buffalo Bomb back in Dec before the EPS did. That was kind of an important specter to f-up, huh. It's like remembering a really amazing tasting meal ... except for that fly's wing you found in the sauce. You don't tend forgot such details ... The 12z to 00z EPS was a solid trend in the right direction, with spatial (location) showing exceptional continuity between those two cycles. Also, while deepening ( in the means) the surface pressure. That's like powdered 'construction of coastal', just add water ( ...well, "snow" would be preferred). But as you can see above ...it is situating the low in the climate wheel-house for much of the area. The only draw down in this illustration is that the 850 mb is challenged for cold air... that pesky metric at this range/product typically used. The 00z run/mean cuts the 0c isotherm from just N of HFD to just S of BOS ..with +1 over N CT/RI SE zones... and -1 up to the NH border. That's a marginal atmosphere by definition - weak thermal gradient + or - 0C 2 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tavwtby Posted February 5, 2023 Share Posted February 5, 2023 strange meso low formed on the front and it's been nearly two days of sustained 20-30 winds, and absolutely pouring... I see winter is over back home where it's now near 40, from a low in the teens 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted February 5, 2023 Share Posted February 5, 2023 Kids outside playing around with no coats on. Welcome back winter 2022/2023. 2 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Go Kart Mozart Posted February 5, 2023 Share Posted February 5, 2023 2 hours ago, CoastalWx said: From what I’ve seen and heard, it fades going into the western pacific. The forcing really looks like a non-factor. This is not researched by me...but it seems like the Aussies have had the best handle on MJO this winter. They have it circling the drain just slightly on the good side of the COD. At least the MJO state should not be an inhibitor as we move later into February. My target date for the blizzard of 23 remains 2/28. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
powderfreak Posted February 5, 2023 Share Posted February 5, 2023 Recovered up to 25F in the valley. Feels glorious. Great ski day. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HIPPYVALLEY Posted February 5, 2023 Share Posted February 5, 2023 12 minutes ago, CoastalWx said: Kids outside playing around with no coats on. Welcome back winter 2022/2023. How is the sledding? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HoarfrostHubb Posted February 5, 2023 Share Posted February 5, 2023 17 minutes ago, CoastalWx said: Kids outside playing around with no coats on. Welcome back winter 2022/2023. Local pond had tons of ice fishermen on it. Taking advantage of the one good day of it Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted February 5, 2023 Share Posted February 5, 2023 5 minutes ago, HIPPYVALLEY said: How is the sledding? It was good this time last year. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathafella Posted February 5, 2023 Share Posted February 5, 2023 Looking at the ensembles prompted me to wake Roy up and have him start warming up the cords.... 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted February 5, 2023 Share Posted February 5, 2023 3 minutes ago, weathafella said: Looking at the ensembles prompted me to wake Roy up and have him start warming up the cords.... He’s been singing since December 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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