UnitedWx Posted February 3, 2023 Share Posted February 3, 2023 30 minutes ago, George001 said: H5 looks really interesting on both the gfs and Canadian. The western ridge axis is over Montana instead of off the west coast this time. If that ridge can amp up a bit more we might have a decent storm on our hands. I couldn't find H5 on Zillow. You buy a house there yet? JK but hey, at least there's a vestige of something to track 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted February 3, 2023 Share Posted February 3, 2023 11 minutes ago, MJO812 said: Not really It might influence March No. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted February 3, 2023 Share Posted February 3, 2023 12 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said: Yeah SSTs in ENSO region stopped being relevant around New Years...the lag puts it well into March at that point. Hopefully prolonged Nina into spring means we'll have a warm spring. Exactly ... question is, when? Even residually the Nina "memory" should promote a warm-ish spring. But let's assume the 'booster' idea works in favor... maybe we can get these last several cycles of the deterministic GFS to win through the 20th or so, and get enough snow to ruin the futility while keep us safely inside of aggravatingly at a loss hahahaha. J/k... but in all honesty, I wasn't think that this cooler pattern we are in would protract through mid month, but the GEFs at 00z hinted in favor of the oper. a bit more. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted February 3, 2023 Share Posted February 3, 2023 12 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said: Yeah SSTs in ENSO region stopped being relevant around New Years...the lag puts it well into March at that point. Hopefully prolonged Nina into spring means we'll have a warm spring. Yea, and potential insurance against a strong el nino next year. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Great Snow 1717 Posted February 3, 2023 Share Posted February 3, 2023 2 hours ago, MJO812 said: Yep looks great it's been the greatest winter of 10-14 days away of all time...lol 3 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted February 3, 2023 Share Posted February 3, 2023 Euro looking pretty interesting at D7....brewing something up to the southwest with a decent high nosing in. Seems like all guidance have something there that may be trackable. Obviously no reason to take it seriously for winter wx until we are closer, but there is a reason to keep an eye on guidance at least. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted February 3, 2023 Share Posted February 3, 2023 Euro might show the gfs storm Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted February 3, 2023 Share Posted February 3, 2023 3 minutes ago, MJO812 said: Euro might show the gfs storm Looks wet. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted February 3, 2023 Share Posted February 3, 2023 It's similar to the 00z GGEM with a strong ejection of the lead disturbance ...10th... Not sure I'm buying that. The 00z to 12z position of that feature in the D6-7 range was quite the east adjustment, indicative of continuity issues with that aspect. The following more important trough identity upstream is actually more consistently placed in longitude, and yes ...it times with the GFS - but the lead aspect is suspect to me. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DavisStraight Posted February 3, 2023 Share Posted February 3, 2023 11 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said: Euro looking pretty interesting at D7....brewing something up to the southwest with a decent high nosing in. Seems like all guidance have something there that may be trackable. Obviously no reason to take it seriously for winter wx until we are closer, but there is a reason to keep an eye on guidance at least. I've never gone a whole year without using the snow blower so something should happen this month. I'm talking 28 years. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
George001 Posted February 3, 2023 Share Posted February 3, 2023 28 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said: Yea, and potential insurance against a strong el nino next year. What I’m rooting for is the best of both worlds, the polar vortex weakens significantly (in a way that favors cold and snow for us), and the nina lingers for longer than expected. That could result in a big finish to winter and a weak nino next year. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted February 3, 2023 Share Posted February 3, 2023 Just now, DavisStraight said: I've never gone a whole year without using the snow blower so something should happen this month. I'm talking 28 years. I haven't even taken mine out of the shed....I usually have it chained to my deck all winter, but it's still sitting in the shed from the warm season. We'll see if the 2/11-2/12 threat turns into anything interesting. Right now, it's got potential, but it's all about timing. If timing is slightly off like we see on the Euro, then it's mostly rain or nothing. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowman19 Posted February 3, 2023 Share Posted February 3, 2023 Euro might show the gfs stormNo blocking Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted February 3, 2023 Share Posted February 3, 2023 Just got back, Little cold and blustery out there, 80 miles is enough for today. 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Dan76 Posted February 3, 2023 Share Posted February 3, 2023 1 minute ago, dryslot said: Just got back, Little cold and blustery out there, Just got back, 80 miles is enough for today. How's that sled holding up ? Their outboards sucked. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted February 3, 2023 Share Posted February 3, 2023 7 minutes ago, snowman19 said: No blocking You don't need blocking for snow 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted February 3, 2023 Share Posted February 3, 2023 EPS sig is strong for 2/12. 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dryslot Posted February 3, 2023 Share Posted February 3, 2023 15 minutes ago, Dan76 said: How's that sled holding up ? Their outboards sucked. It’s a buddy of mine 2021, I rode it today for the first time, So not sure how they are, I ride a 2007 which no problem with mine. Lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted February 3, 2023 Share Posted February 3, 2023 Definitely a colder end of the EPS. Well cold about to move in anyways. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted February 3, 2023 Share Posted February 3, 2023 27 minutes ago, MJO812 said: You don't need blocking for snow Yea, it's just increases the chances of a favorable outcome...but as we saw in December, there are no guarantees. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWolf Posted February 3, 2023 Share Posted February 3, 2023 39 minutes ago, snowman19 said: No blocking WTF?? What a stupid statement. We haven’t had blocking in years here, and have had some monsters the last decade. Then this December we had monster blocking and got skunked. Lol. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted February 3, 2023 Share Posted February 3, 2023 4 minutes ago, CoastalWx said: Definitely a colder end of the EPS. Well cold about to move in anyways. It's fascinating really... All these longer term correlations going the other way, while the operational and ( we'll see if it sticks -) now the ens constructing the north Pacific with the AB mode/ridge up there. I mean I think that's the crucial piece...that construction is setting the wave scaling down stream into a favorable continent/+PNAP... It even transitively sets the NAO upon a trajectory that might emerge more negative - given time. We'll see on that... But if you're a winter enthusiasts, this is what you wanted to see all along - these hints of favorable pointing 'correction vectors'. Next thing to look for is continuity. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted February 3, 2023 Share Posted February 3, 2023 1 minute ago, Typhoon Tip said: It's fascinating really... All these longer term correlations going the other way, while the operational and ( we'll see if it sticks -) now the ens constructing the north Pacific with the AB mode/ridge up there. I mean I think that's the crucial piece...that construction is setting the wave scaling down stream into a favorable continent/+PNAP... It even transitively sets the NAO upon a trajectory that might emerge more negative - given time. We'll see on that... But if you're a winter enthusiasts, this is what you wanted to see all along - these hints of favorable pointing 'correction vectors'. Next thing to look for is continuity. A nice ridge popping into Santa's fanny helps force the PV south again. 2 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EasternLI Posted February 3, 2023 Share Posted February 3, 2023 1 hour ago, 40/70 Benchmark said: I don't really care, at this point. It's too late for any changes to matter, anyway. There is actually something interesting about those conditions. Not for this season, but next year. Perhaps quite interesting, but that's TBD. I was curious about the state of the Pacific. So I re-read the following paper over the weekend. Then decided to check the state of affairs. If you look at the status of the sub surface. Plus, the forecast 850 winds. It was a little surprising to me, to discover it's a pretty damn good match to EOF2 from this paper. EOF2 is one of the leading modes of modoki el nino. EOF1 would be the classic east based variety. It's nothing like that one so far. Found that to be pretty interesting. Thought perhaps you would too. Leading modes of tropical Pacific subsurface ocean temperature and associations with two types of El Niño https://www.nature.com/articles/srep42371 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted February 3, 2023 Share Posted February 3, 2023 1 minute ago, CoastalWx said: A nice ridge popping into Santa's fanny helps force the PV south again. Time to start honking Ray’s 1956 ending. 5 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWolf Posted February 3, 2023 Share Posted February 3, 2023 35 minutes ago, Dan76 said: How's that sled holding up ? Their outboards sucked. Their sleds are awesome…no issues. Super well made, great quality all around. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted February 3, 2023 Share Posted February 3, 2023 1 minute ago, ORH_wxman said: Time to start honking Ray’s 1956 ending. Hahaha... let's not get carried away.. but I like the vibe 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted February 3, 2023 Share Posted February 3, 2023 That's a good question actually... man, I wish we had all this telecon wizardry and cinema back on circa February 15, 1956... What would that've looked like. It's also like that for 1978... 1888 - man that'd been a neat D10, huh Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted February 3, 2023 Share Posted February 3, 2023 5 minutes ago, EasternLI said: There is actually something interesting about those conditions. Not for this season, but next year. Perhaps quite interesting, but that's TBD. I was curious about the state of the Pacific. So I re-read the following paper over the weekend. Then decided to check the state of affairs. If you look at the status of the sub surface. Plus, the forecast 850 winds. It was a little surprising to me, to discover it's a pretty damn good match to EOF2 from this paper. EOF2 is one of the leading modes of modoki el nino. EOF1 would be the classic east based variety. It's nothing like that one so far. Found that to be pretty interesting. Thought perhaps you would too. Leading modes of tropical Pacific subsurface ocean temperature and associations with two types of El Niño https://www.nature.com/articles/srep42371 Yea, I already mentioned that in a blog last fall....this is likely to evolve into a modoki el nino next year. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
George001 Posted February 3, 2023 Share Posted February 3, 2023 Things are trending more favorably with the polar vortex. Not a guarantee and I would still say the odds are against us making up enough ground to end up above average snow for the winter. However, things look a lot better than they did even a week ago. It doesn’t happen every year, but in our snowy seasons we go on a run at some point with storm after storm. 2017-2018 was a 4 week run in March, 2010-2011 was a 4 week run from late Dec to late Jan, and 2014-2015 was a 4 week run from late Jan to late Feb. Most years that doesn’t happen, but when it does we make up for lost ground fast. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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