February 2023 Obs/Discussion

[SnowGoose69]

8 minutes ago, STILL N OF PIKE said:

Is the mid February torch waning on ensembles  and other mid range forecasts ?

 

Its still pretty warm...its just not a shutout pattern...this is more of a 1980s or 90s bad pattern lol in that there may still be cold air to tap into if we time something correctly 

[Cold Miser]

3 hours ago, Sey-Mour Snow said:

Some of you need this. Just move on and enjoy the warmth coming. 

The problem is, that woman is "letting it go" while prancing around in feet upon feet of snow, and ice, and even coaxing the storm to rage on.  In fact, winter is so awesome in her frozen landscape that even inside her extremely ridiculously over the top residence shit is freezing up.  If this video was made by a snow weenie she would be dancing nude in the acres upon acres of snow.  

Someone with some talent needs to somehow merge images of Ray or Scott in that video. 

[Typhoon Tip]

14 minutes ago, SnowGoose69 said:

 

It probably will fail to make it much into 8-1-2....as Don S said the other day in the NYC forum this is currently the strongest MJO of the winter but that said it does now appear that yet again the GEFS is gonna overestimate it and the EPS will be closer to reality, or even too strong itself...that has been the theme all winter really...moderate waves in 3-4-5-6 have been weak and weak waves into 8-1-2 were nonexistent basically.

I haven't actually seen much wave propagation over the right side of that diagram, either.  I was just saying a similar thing to Easton'  .. 

That said, this is also the most robust I have seen the GEFs attempt a 3-6 propagation - fwiw.  Also, the Euro's various product suite has been very slowly gaining some projection strength over the last several days of outlooks.  

The thing is... 3-6 is a constructive interference - in so far as it being "less destructive" ...  Should the wave strength continue to and verify, than the -PNA in the GEFS and EPS ( which they tend to agree on this latter facet, regardless ) that begins to slope down post the ides of the month, might actually assist the emergence of more actual warm looking model projections. 

It seems what the operational GFS is doing - to me - is like picking up where the pattern change we'd been monitoring that tookd f'n 2.5 weeks to get here, left off, and just not seeing any forcing that is capable of changing it.  Henceforth these tasty taunts with systems gliding along a colder track and also having cold air available...etc..etc..   I think it's precarious... not just because the season has proven bad for winter enthusiasts, either, but because of the foresaid analysis.  

One thing I noticed is that the GFS is behaving more -NAO like with the total hemispheric space compared to it's GEFs mean.

In the dailies, the 00z GEFs mean showed more committed Miller B happening along the NJ latitude, about as coherent as it ever would for D9.  The GEPs?  Forget it.. The Canadian sees +NAO great lakes cyclone sucker pattern.  But because of the deterministic versions hemisphere, you can see why it ejects tracks a bit SE of the GEF mean. 

Feb 10-14 is a signal ...for what, we need time.

[STILL N OF PIKE]

8 minutes ago, SnowGoose69 said:

 

Its still pretty warm...its just not a shutout pattern...this is more of a 1980s or 90s bad pattern lol in that there may still be cold air to tap into if we time something correctly 

I honestly just want to keep skiing so as Long as they don’t see Sceaming southeasters I don’t care much weather we get a random advisory event or snow to Rainer or Whiff city. Just no screaming SE ‘ers with rain to Canada 

[George001]

2 hours ago, SnoSki14 said:

?

Euro has a low in Wisconsin for the 10th to 11th threat, gfs is a Miller B that transfers the low over Long Island. Still a wide range of possibilities.

[STILL N OF PIKE]

Gfs maybe cooking something up for the 12’th this run (ya I know 10 days )

[MJO812]

4 minutes ago, STILL N OF PIKE said:

Gfs maybe cooking something up for the 12’th this run (ya I know 10 days )

Yep looks great

[CoastalWx]

5 minutes ago, STILL N OF PIKE said:

Gfs maybe cooking something up for the 12’th this run (ya I know 10 days )

GEM too. We watch.

[Typhoon Tip]

7 minutes ago, STILL N OF PIKE said:

Gfs maybe cooking something up for the 12’th this run (ya I know 10 days )

...it's been doing that for 5 days - haha.   I know what you mean tho

[Typhoon Tip]

GGEM and GFS are really completely different evolutions.

The fact that the GGEM is smeared between the 10/11th ...and the GFS is 11/12th might be clue there. 

But looking closer at the total integral of the whole synoptic space, the GGEM keys in on a lead S/W ejected out of the L/W ... really by the 9th, just 6 days from now. It's already passing STL.  It is, however, a significant correction SE at least with the track aspect alone comparing the 00z rendition. If future runs were to dump the lead S/W emphases/idea, it probably defaults quickly into a GFS type latter aspect...

The GFS has that lead feature weak and ejected even sooner...  flat and heading due east into the Atlantic graveyard, instead putting all emphasis on the aft region of said L/W, which ejects more full bodily a day or so later and ends up being a weirdly non-committal coastal low. That seems like it tried to "bomb" but failed, and ends up with that open core look like that.  I think the progressive bias that is native to the GFS, particularly out in time...may be tripping it up in terms of timing critical intra-trough mechanics. It like facilitates its own internal destructive interference between jet maxims.   

[UnitedWx]

For some, I think this version is more appropriate for this winter season

 

[Typhoon Tip]

yeah...The usual ensemble reliance is probably the course of lesser regret for now.

Although, I think the GGEM's total synoptic evolution is nod toward a GFS type solution - it could simply be in flux modulating toward the more +PNAP nested look of the GFS. Just needs some another cycle or two. 

If the ens means of both start converging - and the Euro joins, we have specified event within the 10-15th arena to focus.

[mahk_webstah]

6 minutes ago, Typhoon Tip said:

GGEM and GFS are really completely different evolutions.

The fact that the GGEM is smeared between the 10/11th ...and the GFS is 11/12th might be clue there. 

But looking closer at the total integral of the whole synoptic space, the GGEM keys in on a lead S/W ejected out of the L/W ... really by the 9th, just 6 days from now. It's already passing STL.  It is, however, a significant correction SE at least with the track aspect alone comparing the 00z rendition. If future runs were to dump the lead S/W emphases/idea, it probably defaults quickly into a GFS type latter aspect...

The GFS has that lead feature weak and ejected even sooner...  flat and heading due east into the Atlantic graveyard, instead putting all emphasis on the aft region of said L/W, which ejects more full bodily a day or so later and ends up being a weirdly non-committal coastal low. That seems like it tried to "bomb" but failed, and ends up with that open core look like that.  I think the progressive bias that is native to the GFS, particularly out in time...may be tripping it up in terms of timing critical intra-trough mechanics. It like facilitates its own internal destructive interference between jet maxims.   

3 waves involved here?  In past winters if there were a progression of 3 waves over a 4-6 day period, I would assume the middle one is more likely to be something bigger.  Please no big storm on Super Bowl Sunday.

[mahk_webstah]

3 hours ago, ariof said:

This year's January Thaw was 31 days long.

Lol, not up here.

[40/70 Benchmark]

Interesting that we have a marginally moderate la nina so exotically well coupled with the atmosphere, despite CC seemingly rendering ENSO all but irrelevant. I feel like in a day and age where every warm anomaly gets attributed, it's only fair to consider that point, as well.

[Typhoon Tip]

6 minutes ago, mahk_webstah said:

3 waves involved here?  In past winters if there were a progression of 3 waves over a 4-6 day period, I would assume the middle one is more likely to be something bigger.  Please no big storm on Super Bowl Sunday.

Sort of like that ... but in this case, the difference are even closer spaced within the L/W.

Both solutions have the GGEM's "10th" -it's really more of an emphasis thing. The GFS is weak with the lead, the GGEM is intense. The difference morphs what can/would happen toward the EC out in time.

[ORH_wxman]

2 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

Interesting that we have a marginally moderate la nina so exotically well coupled with the atmosphere, despite CC seemingly rendering ENSO all but irrelevant. I feel like in a day and age where every warm anomaly gets attributed, it's only fair to consider that point, as well.

I don't think there is any doubt that La Nina had a large influence on the pattern this winter.

[STILL N OF PIKE]

3 minutes ago, mahk_webstah said:

Lol, not up here.

It’s really quite the gradient in landscape N of Merrimack River valley and south of it as well

[40/70 Benchmark]

Just now, ORH_wxman said:

I don't think there is any doubt that La Nina had a large influence on the pattern this winter.

Nope..none, which is my point.

[CoastalWx]

Just now, STILL N OF PIKE said:

It’s really quite the gradient in landscape N of Merrimack River valley and south of it as well

Thaw means you had frozen ground.  

[CoastalWx]

Just now, 40/70 Benchmark said:

Nope..none, which is my point.

This would have sucked in the days of thatched roofs too. Maybe some of our more borderline events would have gone the other way I suppose.

[Typhoon Tip]

7 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

Interesting that we have a marginally moderate la nina so exotically well coupled with the atmosphere, despite CC seemingly rendering ENSO all but irrelevant. I feel like in a day and age where every warm anomaly gets attributed, it's only fair to consider that point, as well.

That's not true ?  

It's not black or white ...

- and it was not "exotically" well coupled, either.  What do you think driving the Pac jet up San Francisco's bum for 3 straight weeks was all about. LOL

[40/70 Benchmark]

3 minutes ago, CoastalWx said:

This would have sucked in the days of thatched roofs too. Maybe some of our more borderline events would have gone the other way I suppose.

It's all subjective...impact with respect to ENSO and temps. All we know is that the globe is warming and to a degree said warming is likely anthropogenic in nature. 

[40/70 Benchmark]

5 minutes ago, Typhoon Tip said:

That's not true ?  

It's not black or white ...

- and it was not "exotically" well coupled, either.  What do you think driving the Pac jet up San Francisco's bum for 3 straight weeks was all about. LOL

It certainly will be in the DM mean...there are also extratropical influences independent of ENSO.

"Its not black and white" was a very accurate statement. 

[George001]

1 hour ago, MJO812 said:

Yep looks great

H5 looks really interesting on both the gfs and Canadian. The western ridge axis is over Montana instead of off the west coast this time. If that ridge can amp up a bit more we might have a decent storm on our hands.

[snowman19]

I don't think there is any doubt that La Nina had a large influence on the pattern this winter.

Looks like it’s going to continue to affect the pattern into March. It doesn’t want to give up

[snowman19]

Looks like it’s going to continue to affect the pattern into March. It doesn’t want to give up

[40/70 Benchmark]

1 minute ago, snowman19 said:

Looks like it’s going to continue to affect the pattern into March. It doesn’t want to give up

I don't really care, at this point. It's too late for any changes to matter, anyway.

[MJO812]

12 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

I don't really care, at this point. It's too late for any changes to matter, anyway.

Not really

It might influence March 

[ORH_wxman]

14 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

I don't really care, at this point. It's too late for any changes to matter, anyway.

Yeah SSTs in ENSO region stopped being relevant around New Years...the lag puts it well into March at that point. Hopefully prolonged Nina into spring means we'll have a warm spring.