February 2023 Obs/Discussion

[40/70 Benchmark]

4 hours ago, ORH_wxman said:

2/9-10/87 was a whopper on the cape. Some spots had over 30 inches of mostly grease…temps near freezing for most of the storm but it flash-froze near the end with temps dropping into teens. 

I think Scooter’s hood had around 6” but once you got west of 128 it was mostly 1-3”…yeah the forum would be in epic melt mode  

 

And that was still a good winter...would have been epic had that one landed.

[moneypitmike]

So will the islands end up with a snowier winter than Worester this year?

[HoarfrostHubb]

7 hours ago, ineedsnow said:

meh rn/sn mix  heavier stuff by Albany though.. so maybe flip to snow?

We were having a light snow shower at the time. 
 

Snowing now 5AM.  Around 0.75” so far

[UnitedWx]

Light snow in Westfield starting to coat the non- paved surfaces. 29°

[CoastalWx]

As Dick Albert used to say….  M.O.T.S

More Of The Same.

[Modfan2]

Snowing and 33 in Brooklyn CT

[amarshall]

snizzely snow , ground covered in something Duxbury 35

[HIPPYVALLEY]

2 hours ago, HoarfrostHubb said:

We were having a light snow shower at the time. 
 

Snowing now 5AM.  Around 0.75” so far

Oh, my driveway is bare and dry.   Elevation dependent?  
You are probably close to average snowfall at your house despite the crap winter.  Lol

[Damage In Tolland]

By the end of next week a lot of flowers and full on green ups should begin . warm high angle Feb sun

Charts and charts 

 

[qg_omega]

33 minutes ago, Damage In Tolland said:

By the end of next week a lot of flowers and full on green ups should begin . warm high angle Feb sun

Charts and charts 

 

So ends the long and brutal winter of 23

[mahk_webstah]

1 hour ago, CoastalWx said:

As Dick Albert used to say….  M.O.T.S

More Of The Same.

Do you mean another 25” in 6 days?

[mahk_webstah]

41 minutes ago, Damage In Tolland said:

By the end of next week a lot of flowers and full on green ups should begin . warm high angle Feb sun

Charts and charts 

 

I’m wondering when the next swfe or redeveloper will hit, with a high of 35, low of 25 for a well above normal mean temp but good snow?

[STILL N OF PIKE]

20 minutes ago, mahk_webstah said:

Do you mean another 25” in 6 days?

Euro .35 QPF next 10 days . Woot . Looks like the 10’th could be next system worth watching 

[Hoth]

You know, I've been thinking about what went wrong with this winter and I think I've found my answer. Two days after that cold blast in December, my neighbor started building a near regulation size skating rink in his back yard. He did a beautiful job: wood boards all the way around, netting behind the hockey goals, lighting so they can skate at night etc. He filled that thing with 3-4" of water and sat back, expecting weeks of pick-up games with his kids and their friends. Sadly, his dreams effed up the winter juju, and the rink has since served as a pool for ducks and geese. Really sad.

[weathafella]

13 hours ago, Damage In Tolland said:

Maybe you guys up there can still grab some snow . Certainly possible . We are done SNE . I don’t see any windows of anything remotely promising thru end of Feb . Maybe something pops up out of nowhere 

A few hours after this post I awaken to a new snow cover-measured 1.1 mid snowing lightly.

[Typhoon Tip]

16 minutes ago, Hoth said:

You know, I've been thinking about what went wrong with this winter and I think I've found my answer. Two days after that cold blast in December, my neighbor started building a near regulation size skating rink in his back yard. He did a beautiful job: wood boards all the way around, netting behind the hockey goals, lighting so they can skate at night etc. He filled that thing with 3-4" of water and sat back, expecting weeks of pick-up games with his kids and their friends. Sadly, his dreams effed up the winter juju, and the rink has since served as a pool for ducks and geese. Really sad.

..and maybe even a cursory evaluation of the last 50 consecutive IPCC publications could have factored into that? lol

[SnoSki14]

1 hour ago, Damage In Tolland said:

By the end of next week a lot of flowers and full on green ups should begin . warm high angle Feb sun

Charts and charts 

 

People may laugh but you're not wrong. Soil temperatures are extremely warm for this time of year. 

And with increasing daylight and well AN temperatures there will definitely be early green ups 

[Typhoon Tip]

Distant GEFs mean beginning to parrot the Euro Weeklies for week 2.5+.   They/that certainly could change, but it's something I noticed of the overnight's.

Fwiw, been advertising the super position hypothesis for February ( considering its application for the whole of spring frankly ... but cross that bridge -). 

I happen to agree with ( I think it was) Eric Fisher's tweet last week - at least in principle.  If indeed the MJO evolves through the 3-6 migration, then possibly terminating back into N/S thereafter, over the top of Pac circulation mode that the models are just aching to couple or recouple with Nina, that doesn't likely end well for winter enthusiasts.  In fact, it likely ends unwell.  The 3-4-5-6 MJO would be in a constructive interference with a well-coupled La Nina.  Those two are a soul mate power couple on the atmospheric Zodiac ...

Almost cannot result in a cold stormy eastern North America.  If it did, ...it would probably be something like the 1::10 return rate rarity in doing so. We'll see.

 

    

[Typhoon Tip]

Heh, add CPC's take to the list:

"• The MJO teleconnects well with the extratropical pattern during the Boreal Winter. An eastward propagation of the MJO from the Indian Ocean to the Maritime Continent favors above-normal temperatures across the eastern United States during mid-February"

[Typhoon Tip]

I almost wonder ... could we be looking at an early prognostic/anatomy of another one of these historic February warm bursts.   Certainly there is precedence over the last 10 years... 2017, and then again in 2020...  Pretty sure there was another year where Feb hosted a party, too. I know there's also been a couple of March warm ups too.   Point being, the frequency increase is noted, and looking at these present indicators et al -

You know, it's not risking anyone personally to have to face the "severe" awesomely beautiful weather week - but standard deviation still claims victory.  That's our greatest departure behavior during these last 10 years.   I find that utter 'under the radar' - ness to be almost comical. 

[SnoSki14]

1 minute ago, Typhoon Tip said:

I almost wonder ... could we be looking at an early prognostic/anatomy of another one of these historic February warm bursts.   Certainly there is precedence over the last 10 years... 2017, and then again in 2020...  Pretty sure there was another year where Feb hosted a party, too. I know there's also been a couple of March warm ups too.   Point being, the frequency increase is noted, and looking at these present indicators et al -

You know, it's not risking anyone personally to have to face the "severe" awesomely beautiful weather week - but standard deviation still claims victory.  That's our greatest departure behavior during these last 10 years.   I find that utter 'under the radar' - ness to be almost comical. 

Man if we see this along with the record warm January then we'll be seeing historic early leafing down here. 

It's already weeks early down south and I don't think a couple cold days will change that. 

[Sey-Mour Snow]

7 minutes ago, Typhoon Tip said:

I almost wonder ... could we be looking at an early prognostic/anatomy of another one of these historic February warm bursts.   Certainly there is precedence over the last 10 years... 2017, and then again in 2020...  Pretty sure there was another year where Feb hosted a party, too. I know there's also been a couple of March warm ups too.   Point being, the frequency increase is noted, and looking at these present indicators et al -

You know, it's not risking anyone personally to have to face the "severe" awesomely beautiful weather week - but standard deviation still claims victory.  That's our greatest departure behavior during these last 10 years.   I find that utter 'under the radar' - ness to be almost comical. 

feb 5-15 looking torchy as well. 

 

14 minutes ago, Typhoon Tip said:

Heh, add CPC's take to the list:

"• The MJO teleconnects well with the extratropical pattern during the Boreal Winter. An eastward propagation of the MJO from the Indian Ocean to the Maritime Continent favors above-normal temperatures across the eastern United States during mid-February"

 

[STILL N OF PIKE]

23 minutes ago, Typhoon Tip said:

Heh, add CPC's take to the list:

"• The MJO teleconnects well with the extratropical pattern during the Boreal Winter. An eastward propagation of the MJO from the Indian Ocean to the Maritime Continent favors above-normal temperatures across the eastern United States during mid-February"

Ooo we gonna torch (or keep torching) , and the CNE gradient will Likely evaporate . My hope is they can score a nice system just before mid month 

[SnowGoose69]

21 minutes ago, Typhoon Tip said:

Heh, add CPC's take to the list:

"• The MJO teleconnects well with the extratropical pattern during the Boreal Winter. An eastward propagation of the MJO from the Indian Ocean to the Maritime Continent favors above-normal temperatures across the eastern United States during mid-February"

 

The MJO has seemingly underperformed on amplitude all winter so I'm far from sold the wave is strong enough to have any impact...the previous 3-4 years you could bank on the GEFS amplitude verifying, this winter the EPS amplitude has been veryifing for the most part or even slightly weaker 

[WxWatcher007]

It’s coming. Embrace it and hope for a strong fourth quarter in late Feb/early March that puts meaningless numbers on the lopsided scoreboard.

Don't worry MA and points north, I’m not stealing your snow. I’m talking about the lowlands.

[Typhoon Tip]

31 minutes ago, SnoSki14 said:

Man if we see this along with the record warm January then we'll be seeing historic early leafing down here. 

It's already weeks early down south and I don't think a couple cold days will change that. 

Yeah ... I'm just nerdy enough to be interested in that.  Ha ha...

But you know, there's real world concerns there.  Obviously, early bud is a vulnerable state to - ironically ... - freezes.    

I also read an article a couple years ago when I noticed some species of broad leaf maple flipped to full color in mid September. My own "General Sherman" 300 year old sugar maple flashed over to gorgeous pastel yellow, when it normally turns air glowing saffron orange, about 1 month before typical.  There wasn't really anything obviously aberrant about the climate of that preceding summer - not that I was personally aware. Apparently others took notice, hence the write.. Anyway, it explained how 2020, despite the smoke weeks of late August, was an overly proficient growth season for many tree species. Here's the explanation: once the tree blows it's carbon cycle budget for that year, it doesn't try to keep producing ... the pigmentation retreats, color results  ( that's paraphrasing mind you -).  I'd never heard of that, but ... if say our growing season is/was extended(ing) at a faster rate then vegetation species are adapting seems intuitive perhaps.

Also, orchard crops?

I have buddies in other texting circles doing the 'riveting' mid aged dad topic of lawn observation ... ( god ) ... saying that their grass never turned completely typically beige.  I would also say that on one of those 50+ days over the last two weeks, I could have swore as I parked my car, a small mosquito was bouncing off my window.   

Someone once joked ( if not, should have) that this has been 'autumn 2022-2023' the whole way 

[Typhoon Tip]

20 minutes ago, SnowGoose69 said:

 

The MJO has seemingly underperformed on amplitude all winter so I'm far from sold the wave is strong enough to have any impact...the previous 3-4 years you could bank on the GEFS amplitude verifying, this winter the EPS amplitude has been veryifing for the most part or even slightly weaker 

I was/have been in this camp, too - but then it recently occurs to me, the 'under-performance' aspect was because the wave was attempting to penetrate the 8-1-2 phase spaces. 

This?  other side -

The 8-1-2 is in destructive interference with an on-going well-couple Nina ..that may have contributed to why the wave was seemingly incapable of getting through the "La Nina firewall" - jokingly calling it..

Contrasting - and this is no aver on my part...just supposition - this particular migration path through phase 3-4-5-6 is in constructive interference.  

One thing I know is true ... the MJO is not a pattern forcing mechanism.  It is a pattern enhancing mechanism...  BUT, that depends on whether it is in constructive or destructive interference as it attempts to move into down stream modes of the circulation.   This being La Nina - and a well coupled one - that does lend support/confidence ...if not at least a head nod, in favor of what CPC is stating.  

 

[40/70 Benchmark]

3 minutes ago, Typhoon Tip said:

I was/have been in this camp, too - but then it recently occurs to me, the 'under-performance' aspect was because the wave was attempting to penetrate the 8-1-2 phase spaces. 

This?  other side -

The 8-1-2 is in destructive interference ..that may have contributed to why the wave was seemingly incapable of getting through the "La Nina firewall" - jokingly calling it..

Contrasting - and this is no aver on my part...just supposition - this particular migration path through phase 3-4-5-6 is in constructive interference.  

One thing I know is true ... the MJO is not a pattern forcing mechanism.  It is a pattern enhancing mechanism...  BUT, that depends on whether it is in constructive or destructive interference as it attempts to move into down stream modes of the circulation.   This being La Nina - and a well coupled one - that does lend support/confidence ...if not at least a head nod, in favor of what CPC is stating.  

 

Yes.

Well stated.

[mahk_webstah]

1 hour ago, STILL N OF PIKE said:

Euro .35 QPF next 10 days . Woot . Looks like the 10’th could be next system worth watching 

Cuz we totally trust the 10 day models.  But they might be right.  But maybe feb6 improves for some.

[40/70 Benchmark]

I think the tropics have dictated that you take the under on amplification when the MJO is in the wheelhouse phases for eastern weenies, and the over when in the milder phases.

That is the gist of my next blog.