February 2023 Obs/Discussion

[EastonSN+]

8 minutes ago, The 4 Seasons said:

Here's where CT is to date. This is the first one i've made for this season. There was really no reason to do it other than to highlight the utter futility we are experiencing. Most of southern coastal CT and low elevation towns have only had one measurable snowfall to date which was Dec 11-12th. Generally south of 84 is around 4" or less, 84-north is around 5-12" and the NW hills in the 12-18 range.

To date this is probably the worst winter to date since 2006-2007, Which was also really brutal and didn't experience its first widespread significant snowfall (and lots of sleet) until V-day. 

Reports are from here, CoCoRaHs, and official climate sites.

BDR - 0.8"

BDL - 9.4"

 

I feel this is payback for all the great years we had this century!

[Typhoon Tip]

I wonder what the return rate on 'great years' really is.

There's probably no way to reconcile 'qualitative' vs 'quantitative' in trying to answer that... One is by design, one is what's actually built.  

If we think of a 100" winter at Springfield Massachusetts as a great year, I guess you wait 50 years between great years.  Ha -  

If average snow, with administration of enough cold that we don't have to puke it in +8 F means is construed as a great, ...  that has not happen in 10 years. 

My point is, I don't think we have had a lot of great years in the last 23. I think we have had some exceptionally good interludes within years that had a lot of disappointing spans.  That's what it really hearkens to my memory. 

I don't know. It's anecdotal and probably not ultimately an influence -able discussion point.  But even 2015 for me was a shit winter that happened to have a 3 week period of ... some kind of freak thing.   Half the year simply did not exist.  I mean, we can compared that to this and say through January 20 - which year was worse. But, Feb had not happened yet in 2015 so don't let that cloud our judgement, the two years were strikingly bad prior to that 3 week period of lore.

The subjective take on 2015 is that it was a historically great winter - or I could easily see that in one's spirit.  But in terms of time?  It was half and half.  Ha, I never passed an exam with 50%.  In terms of snow totals?  best in history - sure.   

 

[40/70 Benchmark]

11 minutes ago, Typhoon Tip said:

I wonder what the return rate on 'great years' really is.

There's probably no way to reconcile 'qualitative' vs 'quantitative' in trying to answer that... One is by design, one is what's actually built.  

If we think of a 100" winter at Springfield Massachusetts as a great year, I guess you wait 50 years between great years.  Ha -  

If average snow, with administration of enough cold that we don't have to puke it in +8 F means is construed as a great, ...  that has not happen in 10 years. 

My point is, I don't think we have had a lot of great years in the last 23. I think we have had some exceptionally good interludes within years that had a lot of disappointing spans.  That's what it really hearkens to my memory. 

I don't know. It's anecdotal and probably not ultimately an influence -able discussion point.  But even 2015 for me was a shit winter that happened to have a 3 week period of ... some kind of freak thing.   Half the year simply did not exist.  I mean, we can compared that to this and say through January 20 - which year was worse. But, Feb had not happened yet in 2015 so don't let that cloud our judgement, the two years were strikingly bad prior to that 3 week period of lore.

The subjective take on 2015 is that it was a historically great winter - or I could easily see that in one's spirit.  But in terms of time?  It was half and half.  Ha, I never passed an exam with 50%.  In terms of snow totals?  best in history - sure.   

 

Yea, the return rate on nearly wire-to-wire winter seasons is just about non-existent, at least at this latitude.

[CoastalWx]

A "great" year is also subjective. You would have to take into account one's climo and opinions on a "great" year. People like Kevin think 2" of crusty pack from Dec-Mar is a great year. 

[Baroclinic Zone]

Just now, CoastalWx said:

A "great" year is also subjective. You would have to take into account one's climo and opinions on a "great" year. People like Kevin think 2" of crusty pack from Dec-Mar is a great year. 

I prefer the big storms then melt it all away, rinse and repeat.  

[ORH_wxman]

8 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said:

Yea, the return rate on nearly wire-to-wire winter seasons is just about non-existent, at least at this latitude.

Correct....even many of the "great winters" of the 1960s often had furiously stormy stretches surrounded by long drawn-out very boring stretches. (see 1968-1969 as one great example...1961-1962 is another).....the years like 1960-1961 are truly unicorns.

I think the last winter that had all 4 major snow months at or above average is 2016-2017....of course, Feb 2017 had the snow blitz in the first half of the month and then touched 80 later that month, before we went back into the deep freeze that March. Getting all 4 months above climo snow though is very rare in and of itself.

[CoastalWx]

2 minutes ago, Baroclinic Zone said:

I prefer the big storms then melt it all away, rinse and repeat.  

See I don't prefer it to melt away. I would love it to stay, but I don't weigh snowpack much into my grade simply because we don't sustain it here for too long. 

[powderfreak]

4 minutes ago, CoastalWx said:

A "great" year is also subjective. You would have to take into account one's climo and opinions on a "great" year. People like Kevin think 2" of crusty pack from Dec-Mar is a great year. 

You mean Oct-Jan.  December is peak winter month when sun is lowest.

[Damage In Tolland]

8 minutes ago, CoastalWx said:

A "great" year is also subjective. You would have to take into account one's climo and opinions on a "great" year. People like Kevin think 2" of crusty pack from Dec-Mar is a great year. 

I have never seen anyone so obsessed with another poster . In the last  couple of days.. you mentioned me here, earlier today you were wondering if I’d even see 20” for the winter.. and in the rainer the other night posted about heavy rain and melt it all in Tolland. Man are we in your head .

[CoastalWx]

1 minute ago, Damage In Tolland said:

I have never seen anyone so obsessed with another poster . In the last  couple of days.. you mentioned me here, earlier today you were wondering if I’d even see 20” for the winter.. and in the rainer the other night posted about heavy rain and melt it all in Tolland. Man are we in your head .

I like depressed Kevin. Easy to mess around with. 

[Typhoon Tip]

1 hour ago, UnitedWx said:

Thanks. So... since I am still far from familiar with how the models adjust, calculate etc. my question is how much climo is really built into what they spit out (or up). I mean, I've seen it discussed before but never really thought about how a model could be assuming certain temps vs. just straight up data ingestion. I guess what I'm trying to ask is if these models have any sort of adaptive learning in order to deal with any sort of climate change or would wholesale reprogramming be required? Not even sure I'm wording this question correctly, a mind is a terrible thing.

There is only one model that is a direct ..( or even indirect as far as I am aware - ) integration of climate, with real time geophysical processing:  I provided an op-ed about that a couple weeks ago.  Not sure what thread or whereupon it has been scrolled...heh, but it is the CFS model (Climate Forecast System). 

There's an essay/paper on it - don't have the link right handing - that explains how it is probably susceptible to C02 variances ...etc.  It's base-line is 1988 ppm ( I believe it read -), and is cited as why the model tends to maintain a cool bias.  

Otherwise, the GFS and Euor and GGEM and UKMET and KOREAN, and ICON and Alessandra Ambrosio ...etc..etc., do not saddle their processing with climate.  

 

[Damage In Tolland]

1 minute ago, CoastalWx said:

I like depressed Kevin. Easy to mess around with. 

Enough depressing things in real  life .. this winter has just added another reason .. weather depression 

[CoastalWx]

1 minute ago, Damage In Tolland said:

Enough depressing things in real  life .. this winter has just added another reason .. weather depression 

Reality just makes weather stuff seem so trivial though. I wish I could spend my energy being mad at weather like others can. But life is reality. 

[Damage In Tolland]

2 minutes ago, CoastalWx said:

Reality just makes weather stuff seem so trivial though. I wish I could spend my energy being mad at weather like others can. But life is reality. 

Oh rest assured.. I am pissed off at Mother Nature. I’d grab her hand and pull her off the bridge with me if I could 

[Typhoon Tip]

Feb10/11 offering some eye candy. 

 

[Typhoon Tip]

hahaha...  crickets

[mahk_webstah]

Bro, we was kidding it’s it’s earlier, at least intimating that the pattern going forward though might be warm. Should offer chances because Canada stays cold. It’s 12 days out but it’s good to see things show up on the models even though we know they’ll change. Just shows there’s potential with cold nearby. 

[Typhoon Tip]

whao .. wait a cosecant here hmm

[Cold Miser]

1 hour ago, The 4 Seasons said:

Here's where CT is to date. This is the first one i've made for this season. There was really no reason to do it other than to highlight the utter futility we are experiencing. Most of southern coastal CT and low elevation towns have only had one measurable snowfall to date which was Dec 11-12th. Generally south of 84 is around 4" or less, 84-north is around 5-12" and the NW hills in the 12-18 range.

To date this is probably the worst winter to date since 2006-2007, Which was also really brutal and didn't experience its first widespread significant snowfall (and lots of sleet) until V-day. 

Reports are from here, CoCoRaHs, and official climate sites.

BDR - 0.8"

BDL - 9.4"

 

Brutal, my friend. Utterly brutal.

[STILL N OF PIKE]

1 hour ago, WxWatcher007 said:

A little interesting to see the GFS move the precip with that wave Friday move closer and closer. On an island.

I’m not sure that will be snow there if it moves another 50-75 miles north . Another move north may  require a another 3-6 hour delay of the arctic approach shot 

[WxWatcher007]

5 minutes ago, STILL N OF PIKE said:

I’m not sure that will be snow there if it moves another 50-75 miles north . Another move north may  require a another 3-6 hour delay of the arctic approach shot 

If I had to choose between 1-2” of snow and realizing -10 imby, I’d take the cold. Far more anomalous.

[Baroclinic Zone]

24 minutes ago, Typhoon Tip said:

Feb10/11 offering some eye candy. 

 

You mean the GL cutter?

[ORH_wxman]

Just now, Baroclinic Zone said:

You mean the GL cutter?

The one behind that.

[ariof]

26 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said:

Correct....even many of the "great winters" of the 1960s often had furiously stormy stretches surrounded by long drawn-out very boring stretches. (see 1968-1969 as one great example...1961-1962 is another).....the years like 1960-1961 are truly unicorns.

I think the last winter that had all 4 major snow months at or above average is 2016-2017....of course, Feb 2017 had the snow blitz in the first half of the month and then touched 80 later that month, before we went back into the deep freeze that March. Getting all 4 months above climo snow though is very rare in and of itself.

I dropped the data for KBOS into a Google Sheet and ran a conditional formatting to compute departures from normal (since 1890). Looks like there are only a few years where DJFM were all AN:

1947-1948    26.8    32.5    17    11.8
1960-1961    16.9    18.7    14.9    9
1992-1993    2.1    0.5    6.6    31.5
1993-1994    4.0    21.3    23.2    7.4
1995-1996    16.5    27.4    2.5    9.4

That's it. 2004-2005 was ever so close, all AN except for Dec, which was -0.4. Yea, 1992-1996 was a good stretch, although with the 1994-5 ratter below in between.

As for all months BN, many more since the data is not uniform because the tail can't go past zero. 

1900-1901    -6.8    -4.5    -4.2    -7.4
1907-1908    -0.6    -8.0    -3.7    -2.6
1908-1909    -4.1    -1.1    -10.7    -4.3
1914-1915    -3.5    -5.3    -7.9    -7.4
1923-1924    -4.6    -3.8    -5.1    0.0
1927-1928    -7.6    -7.2    -4.3    -0.9
1931-1932    -6.2    -11.1    -3.0    -1.6
1934-1935    -6.0    -11.5    -0.3    -5.3
1936-1937    -6.9    -10.3    -13.0    -5.5
1946-1947    -2.7    -8.4    -4.0    -6.5
1972-1973    -4.3    -8.8    -10.5    -7.1
1978-1979    -1.8    -1.9    -6.4    -7.4
1979-1980    -5.6    -12.0    -6.5    -3.8
1980-1981    -2.0    -0.5    -11.1    -6.9
1984-1985    -3.9    -5.4    -2.8    -3.7
1985-1986    -6.3    -11.6    -2.6    -4.8
1988-1989    -3.9    -10.9    -6.3    -4.2
1990-1991    -6.4    -0.7    -10.2    -4.0
1994-1995    -6.1    -8.0    -4.5    -7.0
2001-2002    -2.6    -4.5    -12.5    -6.0
2011-2012    -7.6    -5.6    -12.1    -6.8

Definite clustering. 5(ish) between 1923 and 1937, then one in the next 36 years, then 8 in 16 years, from 1979-1995, and then 2 in the last 27 years (although this year is shaping up to be one). Some of these data might be off by 0.1" since I changed the Jan and Feb data to input some missing values and that slightly changed the averages.

[Baroclinic Zone]

6 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said:

The one behind that.

 for now

[mahk_webstah]

59 minutes ago, Baroclinic Zone said:

You mean the GL cutter?

The one just after with a scooter 1029 in Quebec 

[TauntonBlizzard2013]

1 hour ago, Baroclinic Zone said:

 for now

This,

we’re totally off the rails here looking at day 13 threats

[Torch Tiger]

300hr gfs op, start a thread?

[STILL N OF PIKE]

58 minutes ago, Baroclinic Zone said:

 for now

The one at day 13 lol , let’s get some maps up . 
 

It’s almost time for Will to ordain this winter a failure , maybe we can get something to pop outta the woodwork around days 4-7

[Ginx snewx]

No Queens be Queenin

No Jack's be Jackin

Me, just sittin and tannin