HIPPYVALLEY Posted January 26, 2023 Share Posted January 26, 2023 47 minutes ago, WinterWolf said: Congratulations on the baby Ray! Yup, I agree. I’ve made peace with it too. If something pops, we take. If not it’s ok too. I'm a geek record collector and you reminded me of this great single: I'm sure we could edit the lyrics to House on Snow Hill Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bristolri_wx Posted January 26, 2023 Share Posted January 26, 2023 17 minutes ago, weathafella said: We’re actually driving to Florida just past mid February. Stopping in Pittsburgh to visit a dear friend and then heading south with some fun stops on the way. Checking out spring training and visiting my wife’s mom who’s wintering there. We’ll return whenever…. Hopefully we get something in the next few weeks but I’m not holding my breath. Queue the Blizzard of 2023 on Feb 17th, or whenever your trip begins. LOL! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HIPPYVALLEY Posted January 26, 2023 Share Posted January 26, 2023 I think we get at least two region wide warning events between now and March 15th. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnoSki14 Posted January 26, 2023 Share Posted January 26, 2023 1 hour ago, 40/70 Benchmark said: I started losing confidence in Cosgrove around the holidays.......he was talking about Jan paralleling 1996 and I was like, I 95 has seen zero snow....big diff. He started to get a little defensive and was like met winter just started, so don't cancel winter, okay? Mentioned threats on the ensembles, which a I didn't agree with, but just dropped it. Now he seems poised to latch onto a arctic blast that drops into Texas and largely misses the east coast as validation. There was a lot of talk about 95/96 & 10/11 back in early December and how great the pattern might be. NYC south has had a trace to no snow thus far. That's worse than even the ugliest winters and your region might be worse snow anomaly wise Additionally this will be the warmest January on record for many locations in the northeast. And the weather hasn't even been enjoyable either. Tons of clouds/rain this month...a prolonged mid March. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bristolri_wx Posted January 26, 2023 Share Posted January 26, 2023 49 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said: I'm just not holding my breath any longer....that's all. I have a baby coming next week and am starting to look forward to fantasy baseball. I still think the season holds potential, but my I am no longer invested. Congrats on the baby. Nice to see someone else on the board interested in Fantasy Baseball as well, which is the real fantasy sport IMO. The snow will come when we're least expecting it or paying attention. That's how it works. I think Feb and March will be better than Dec and Jan, not because we're due, but because there is a pattern change going on that could work in our favor much more so than what we've been seeing the last two months... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Maestrobjwa Posted January 26, 2023 Share Posted January 26, 2023 1 hour ago, 40/70 Benchmark said: I'm just not holding my breath any longer....that's all. I have a baby coming next week and am starting to look forward to fantasy baseball. I still think the season holds potential, but my I am no longer invested. Whoa!!! Congratulations man! Well that certainly trumps even snow--yeah it's not worth it to have any attention divided to what's been going on. P.S. If it snows after your child is born we will certainly need to give it (boy or girl?) a username already 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DavisStraight Posted January 26, 2023 Share Posted January 26, 2023 1 hour ago, 40/70 Benchmark said: I'm just not holding my breath any longer....that's all. I have a baby coming next week and am starting to look forward to fantasy baseball. I still think the season holds potential, but my I am no longer invested. Congrats on the baby Ray, how about your wife has the baby safely in the morning and that night we get a big blizzard, a day for you to really remember. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
qg_omega Posted January 26, 2023 Share Posted January 26, 2023 Congrats Ray! On the weather note, unfortunately no changes 1 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
UnitedWx Posted January 26, 2023 Share Posted January 26, 2023 5 hours ago, SnoSki14 said: There was a lot of talk about 95/96 & 10/11 back in early December and how great the pattern might be. NYC south has had a trace to no snow thus far. That's worse than even the ugliest winters and your region might be worse snow anomaly wise Additionally this will be the warmest January on record for many locations in the northeast. And the weather hasn't even been enjoyable either. Tons of clouds/rain this month...a prolonged mid March. Missed it by a year lol. More like 11/12. If I subtract the October storm which i kind of did even when we got into that winter, I've already had more this season Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted January 26, 2023 Share Posted January 26, 2023 Euro! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
UnitedWx Posted January 26, 2023 Share Posted January 26, 2023 49 minutes ago, MJO812 said: Euro! Euro... really doesn't look all that impressive looking, kind of like the GFS of a day or two ago. Remember only like five days ago the euro had us getting a Nemo redux yesterday Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Great Snow 1717 Posted January 26, 2023 Share Posted January 26, 2023 1 hour ago, MJO812 said: Euro! Don't do it to yourself for the millionth time this winter.. 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Baroclinic Zone Posted January 26, 2023 Author Share Posted January 26, 2023 Couple signals still there in 1st week. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted January 26, 2023 Share Posted January 26, 2023 19 minutes ago, Baroclinic Zone said: Couple signals still there in 1st week. EPS has them…but obviously they can go either way. The d6-7 sig was actually probably the best one and not a few days later like the OP run had. 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWolf Posted January 26, 2023 Share Posted January 26, 2023 1 hour ago, MJO812 said: Euro! Wait, You didn’t hear? Oh that can’t be right, cuz quite a few cancelled everything, and were wigging out because the 18z GFS 12 hrs ago(cuz it’s such an accurate off hr model) showed a cutter 13 days from now. So it’s all over. 1 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted January 26, 2023 Share Posted January 26, 2023 Good luck getting this one to perform. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
STILL N OF PIKE Posted January 26, 2023 Share Posted January 26, 2023 The latest run of 0z euro , 0z cmc and 6z gfs don’t really have much QPF Over the next 10 days (After accounting for last nites crap) Looks like maybe a bit of a break from the active period Over next 10 days. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWolf Posted January 26, 2023 Share Posted January 26, 2023 8 minutes ago, CoastalWx said: Good luck getting this one to perform. We need some good fortune PERIOD…especially in a season like this. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted January 26, 2023 Share Posted January 26, 2023 5 minutes ago, STILL N OF PIKE said: The latest run of 0z euro , 0z cmc and 6z gfs don’t really have much QPF Over the next 10 days (After accounting for last nites crap) Looks like maybe a bit of a break from the active period Over next 10 days. Let’s get it cold and dry. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
qg_omega Posted January 26, 2023 Share Posted January 26, 2023 Just now, CoastalWx said: Let’s get it cold and dry. Doesn’t look very cold Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
STILL N OF PIKE Posted January 26, 2023 Share Posted January 26, 2023 Just now, WinterWolf said: We need some good fortune PERIOD…especially in a season like this. You just need to get up north Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
STILL N OF PIKE Posted January 26, 2023 Share Posted January 26, 2023 17 minutes ago, CoastalWx said: Good luck getting this one to perform. Scott , how is the Indian Ocean forcing looking , I still see closed 500mb lows to Baja and northern Mexico and then last I heard was you mentioned second week of February looks to flex a strong SE ridge , is the latter part still a likely outcome in your opinion. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted January 26, 2023 Share Posted January 26, 2023 Just now, STILL N OF PIKE said: Scott , how is the Indian Ocean forcing looking , I still see closed 500mb lows to Baja and northern Mexico I honestly haven’t looked in awhile. All I know is that the typical phases to deliver cold have not done so. It’s been 3-4-5 that have delivered. For whatever reason. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Go Kart Mozart Posted January 26, 2023 Share Posted January 26, 2023 A 1043 arctic high to my north is great...but not 75 miles to my north. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
STILL N OF PIKE Posted January 26, 2023 Share Posted January 26, 2023 6 minutes ago, CoastalWx said: I honestly haven’t looked in awhile. All I know is that the typical phases to deliver cold have not done so. It’s been 3-4-5 that have delivered. For whatever reason. You haven’t looked ... can you at some point or did you basically toss the towel on that till La Niña weakens in March ? seems like we try to thread the needle with the upcoming early feb period , more potential is there for areas that haven’t seen anything this year from mid Atlantic to S coastal SNE / SE mass but we look to introduce the chance of suppression as a price to pay for that chance Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
George001 Posted January 26, 2023 Share Posted January 26, 2023 There’s actually arctic air around for this setup. The core of it looks to be west of us, but aren’t the biggest snows often just NW of the gradient? It might not amount to anything if the gradient north of us, but we are at least in the game which we couldn’t really say for the disaster that was the record warm Jan pattern. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted January 26, 2023 Share Posted January 26, 2023 Just now, STILL N OF PIKE said: You haven’t looked ... can you at some point or did you basically toss the towel on that till La Niña weakens in March ? seems like we try to thread the needle with the upcoming early feb period , more potential is there for areas that haven’t seen anything this year form mid Atlantic to S coastal SNE / SE mass but we look to introduce the chance of suppression as a price to pay for that chance I’m pretty much done at this point. Maybe I’ll look this morning. If something pops on the models great, but not worth getting invested. 3 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
George001 Posted January 26, 2023 Share Posted January 26, 2023 2 minutes ago, Go Kart Mozart said: A 1043 arctic high to my north is great...but not 75 miles to my north. I don’t mind seeing that 228 hours out. It will come north. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
brooklynwx99 Posted January 26, 2023 Share Posted January 26, 2023 36 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said: EPS has them…but obviously they can go either way. The d6-7 sig was actually probably the best one and not a few days later like the OP run had. yeah, this is a nice signature. more than cold enough. there's actually good ensemble agreement here... the GEFS and GEPS are both on board with this potential event precip doesn't look amazing, but this is due more to differences in timing more than anything at this point. precip could end up robust with a thermal gradient like that 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
STILL N OF PIKE Posted January 26, 2023 Share Posted January 26, 2023 2 minutes ago, brooklynwx99 said: yeah, this is a nice signature. more than cold enough. there's actually good ensemble agreement here... the GEFS and GEPS are both on board with this potential event I think That period is the best all year for mid Atlantic to NYC , could come more north at this Lead time but there is legit hope for first time in a long time for upper mid Atlantic 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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