weathafella Posted January 26, 2023 Share Posted January 26, 2023 1 minute ago, 40/70 Benchmark said: 92-93 was awesome here Yeah BOS got 83 inches-a lot of good luck in February before and epic March. December was snowy but January did feature an epic torch. I did see someone skating on the Charles adjacent to back bay the last week of March. At least that person had the good sense to stay close to the shore. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Damage In Tolland Posted January 26, 2023 Share Posted January 26, 2023 Yeah I’m pretty much out for tracking anymore. We lost the battle . You don’t gain winter back by a week or two Obviously I’ll post and have fun, but the thrill and excitement of chasing snow this year has been taken away . Too much emotion spent on failures has taken its toll on me personally . Probably my fault for buying in . 1 2 1 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bristolri_wx Posted January 26, 2023 Share Posted January 26, 2023 I’m still optimistic we get some snow between now and April 1. All the lovely maps that show the west cold show cold in Canada as well. That’s a definite pattern shift. We fight the SE ridge in mid Feb but it seems to cool down afterwards heading into March. We shall see. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TauntonBlizzard2013 Posted January 26, 2023 Share Posted January 26, 2023 1 hour ago, STILL N OF PIKE said: People have been pressing for a good pattern. It’s looked very good for cutters for a long time . We got some decent breaks in the last couple storms (before this piece of trash ) and I’ve been thankful for that . Just incredibly active and Mild with some N SNE folks being able to cash a little during peak climo . More cutters seem likely to me for SNE but I’m hoping it’s not back to rains to Maine and 850 lows thru Montreal after this garbage system There are a lot of seasoned vets really reaching at this point too, which I’m kind of surprised at. But it also shows just how shitty it’s been. To be honest, a lot of these OP runs look exactly like they have all winter. Basically, what degree of cutter are we getting. We literally can’t sneak a bonafide SNE threat in on the models anytime closer than 10 days out. People are reaching for miracles at this point Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted January 26, 2023 Share Posted January 26, 2023 34 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said: Dumping now.... 32.7 1/2" Rain. 1/2" is final 32.7 1 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted January 26, 2023 Share Posted January 26, 2023 11 minutes ago, TauntonBlizzard2013 said: There are a lot of seasoned vets really reaching at this point too, which I’m kind of surprised at. But it also shows just how shitty it’s been. To be honest, a lot of these OP runs look exactly like they have all winter. Basically, what degree of cutter are we getting. We literally can’t sneak a bonafide SNE threat in on the models anytime closer than 10 days out. People are reaching for miracles at this point I started losing confidence in Cosgrove around the holidays.......he was talking about Jan paralleling 1996 and I was like, I 95 has seen zero snow....big diff. He started to get a little defensive and was like met winter just started, so don't cancel winter, okay? Mentioned threats on the ensembles, which a I didn't agree with, but just dropped it. Now he seems poised to latch onto a arctic blast that drops into Texas and largely misses the east coast as validation. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TauntonBlizzard2013 Posted January 26, 2023 Share Posted January 26, 2023 10 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said: I started losing confidence in Cosgrove around the holidays.......he was talking about Jan paralleling 1996 and I was like, I 95 has seen zero snow....big diff. He started to get a little defensive and was like met winter just started, so don't cancel winter, okay? Mentioned threats on the ensembles, which a I didn't agree with, but just dropped it. Now he seems poised to latch onto an arctic blast that drops into Texas and largely misses the east coast as validation. Exactly, the goal posts are shifting. The only winter weather most have seen is on day 10 ensemble maps, and that doesn’t look to change anytime soon. Maybe we run into one at some point, but I think people need to be very careful taking the cheese on any good looking threats until we are very very close in. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Torch Tiger Posted January 26, 2023 Share Posted January 26, 2023 severe? 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWolf Posted January 26, 2023 Share Posted January 26, 2023 We’ll all be very careful. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted January 26, 2023 Share Posted January 26, 2023 1 minute ago, Torch Tiger said: severe? 60s. I’d welcome that with open arms. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWolf Posted January 26, 2023 Share Posted January 26, 2023 3 minutes ago, Torch Tiger said: severe? 13 days out…we were just told we need to be very careful until we are very close in. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Brian5671 Posted January 26, 2023 Share Posted January 26, 2023 19 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said: I started losing confidence in Cosgrove around the holidays.......he was talking about Jan paralleling 1996 and I was like, I 95 has seen zero snow....big diff. He started to get a little defensive and was like met winter just started, so don't cancel winter, okay? Mentioned threats on the ensembles, which a I didn't agree with, but just dropped it. Now he seems poised to latch onto a arctic blast that drops into Texas and largely misses the east coast as validation. he's been wrong all winter. that arctic shot into Texas is transient too-in and out and then back to the same ol pattern.... 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWolf Posted January 26, 2023 Share Posted January 26, 2023 1 minute ago, Brian5671 said: he's been wrong all winter. that arctic shot into Texas is transient too-in and out and then back to the same ol pattern.... Wait…no pattern change. We cancelled it due to an 18z OP run? Good to know. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TauntonBlizzard2013 Posted January 26, 2023 Share Posted January 26, 2023 13 minutes ago, WinterWolf said: 13 days out…we were just told we need to be very careful until we are very close in. No, if it shows something good. You can lock and load those shit solutions Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWolf Posted January 26, 2023 Share Posted January 26, 2023 1 minute ago, TauntonBlizzard2013 said: No, if it shows something good. You can lock and load those shit solutions Lol…ya I’m not buying that at day 13. It’ll be gone next run. But if it’s not, oh well. NNE gonna rock the next few weeks, even if we can’t. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
eduggs Posted January 26, 2023 Share Posted January 26, 2023 Tough winter so far for the long-range "pattern" sniffers. The 7-10 day period feels like either a Maine or Carolinas jackpot situation. It's hard to see how we thread the needle based on where things stand now. The cold-side snow zones look narrow. Roll the dice and see how it plays out. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
eduggs Posted January 26, 2023 Share Posted January 26, 2023 18 minutes ago, Brian5671 said: he's been wrong all winter. that arctic shot into Texas is transient too-in and out and then back to the same ol pattern.... Well anybody forecasting regionally specific weather 10+ days out will either be wrong or lucky. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Snowcrazed71 Posted January 26, 2023 Share Posted January 26, 2023 I've given up. Tried to stay positive as much as possible. But seems everyone has jumped ship on this Winter. It's all good... Next year is another year ladies and gentleman. Pattern has never made the change no matter how many times it showed it. I was holding on hoping that it would. But I've got enough people coming down on me to now make it clear that it's just not happening. Until next year Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted January 26, 2023 Share Posted January 26, 2023 28 minutes ago, CoastalWx said: 60s. I’d welcome that with open arms. Yea, at this point....I'd sign for that to ensure no more day 11 candy canes and 1/2" front fenders followed by 32.7 and rain. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWolf Posted January 26, 2023 Share Posted January 26, 2023 2 minutes ago, Snowcrazed71 said: I've given up. Tried to stay positive as much as possible. But seems everyone has jumped ship on this Winter. It's all good... Next year is another year ladies and gentleman. Pattern has never made the change no matter how many times it showed it. I was holding on hoping that it would. But I've got enough people coming down on me to now make it clear that it's just not happening. Until next year Take a break. 1 minute ago, 40/70 Benchmark said: Yea, at this point....I'd sign for that to ensure no more day 11 candy canes and 1/2" front fenders followed by 32.7 and rain. You’re in full on Rat mode now? No decent period first couple weeks of Feb, no late Feb and March cold? The Outlook a total bust? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted January 26, 2023 Share Posted January 26, 2023 12 minutes ago, eduggs said: Well anybody forecasting regionally specific weather 10+ days out will either be wrong or lucky. Yea, it takes some luck to nail it, but the more skilled forecasters will get "lucky" more often. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mreaves Posted January 26, 2023 Share Posted January 26, 2023 33 minutes ago, WinterWolf said: 13 days out…we were just told we need to be very careful until we are very close in. It’ll happen. I’m supposed to be in Caribou that week. Lalalalalock it in. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted January 26, 2023 Share Posted January 26, 2023 3 minutes ago, WinterWolf said: Take a break. You’re in full on Rat mode now? No decent period first couple weeks of Feb, no late Feb and March cold? The Outlook a total bust? I'm just not holding my breath any longer....that's all. I have a baby coming next week and am starting to look forward to fantasy baseball. I still think the season holds potential, but my I am no longer invested. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWolf Posted January 26, 2023 Share Posted January 26, 2023 1 minute ago, mreaves said: It’ll happen. I’m supposed to be in Caribou that week. Lalalalalock it in. Nahhh..you’ll be good. Heading up north of caribou Friday. they’re gonna get a dumping tomorrow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
eduggs Posted January 26, 2023 Share Posted January 26, 2023 3 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said: Yea, it takes some luck to nail it, but the more skilled forecasters will get "lucky" more often. I'm skeptical. Show me data to back that up and I'd change my mind. Otherwise to me it's like stock trading. Most people think they are better than random chance. But it's perception over reality. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWolf Posted January 26, 2023 Share Posted January 26, 2023 1 minute ago, 40/70 Benchmark said: I'm just not holding my breath any longer....that's all. I have a baby coming next week and am starting to look forward to fantasy baseball. I still think the season holds potential, but my I am no longer invested. Congratulations on the baby Ray! Yup, I agree. I’ve made peace with it too. If something pops, we take. If not it’s ok too. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
8611Blizz Posted January 26, 2023 Share Posted January 26, 2023 For now... 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted January 26, 2023 Share Posted January 26, 2023 6 minutes ago, eduggs said: I'm skeptical. Show me data to back that up and I'd change my mind. Otherwise to me it's like stock trading. Most people think they are better than random chance. But it's perception over reality. As someone who spends alot of time on it, I just feel like the people who don't expend any energy attempting it don't really have the right to entirely attribute anyone's success to luck. That is a loser's mindset IMO. There are many things that were thought to be impossible 100 years ago and still would be with that mindset. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
weathafella Posted January 26, 2023 Share Posted January 26, 2023 We’re actually driving to Florida just past mid February. Stopping in Pittsburgh to visit a dear friend and then heading south with some fun stops on the way. Checking out spring training and visiting my wife’s mom who’s wintering there. We’ll return whenever…. Hopefully we get something in the next few weeks but I’m not holding my breath. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mreaves Posted January 26, 2023 Share Posted January 26, 2023 43 minutes ago, WinterWolf said: Nahhh..you’ll be good. Heading up north of caribou Friday. they’re gonna get a dumping tomorrow. Put my first miles on tonight. Decided I was going to break my access trail out to the main trail and when I got there, the groomer had been through so I just kept going. Only did 5 or 6 miles but it was good to be out. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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