Baroclinic Zone Posted January 25, 2023 Share Posted January 25, 2023 Well we are mid-winter. See if the 3 quarter brings a turn-around to this farce of a Winter. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Go Kart Mozart Posted January 25, 2023 Share Posted January 25, 2023 New month, new vibe: 1 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Baroclinic Zone Posted January 25, 2023 Author Share Posted January 25, 2023 Looks active in the 1st week with a multiple signals. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
HIPPYVALLEY Posted January 25, 2023 Share Posted January 25, 2023 4 hours ago, Go Kart Mozart said: New month, new vibe: I’d be OK with a 30 spot over the first 10 days of February, I guess. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Baroclinic Zone Posted January 25, 2023 Author Share Posted January 25, 2023 Models pointing towards something next weekend. 12z OP GFS has a snow/freezing rain/rain storm. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DavisStraight Posted January 25, 2023 Share Posted January 25, 2023 We do get a decent cold shot the first week, not as bad as originally modeled but -20s usually don't happen here. Would like a pack of some size before the cold hits. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
STILL N OF PIKE Posted January 25, 2023 Share Posted January 25, 2023 26 minutes ago, DavisStraight said: We do get a decent cold shot the first week, not as bad as originally modeled but -20s usually don't happen here. Would like a pack of some size before the cold hits. I’ll sell that cold for now Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DavisStraight Posted January 25, 2023 Share Posted January 25, 2023 11 minutes ago, STILL N OF PIKE said: I’ll sell that cold for now Minus 20's? I would too, but think we can to zero Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MJO812 Posted January 25, 2023 Share Posted January 25, 2023 5 hours ago, Go Kart Mozart said: New month, new vibe: 12z is different Shocking Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
40/70 Benchmark Posted January 25, 2023 Share Posted January 25, 2023 56 minutes ago, MJO812 said: 12z is different Shocking Off hour run was snowy...even more shocking. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted January 25, 2023 Share Posted January 25, 2023 You hope that the chaotic nature of these patters means to forego the op runs and roll with ensembles. So living and dying by the op runs is a good way to stroke out. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Baroclinic Zone Posted January 25, 2023 Author Share Posted January 25, 2023 1 minute ago, CoastalWx said: You hope that the chaotic nature of these patters means to forego the op runs and roll with ensembles. So living and dying by the op runs is a good way to stroke out. Ensembles don't have the pretty colors and snow maps like the op runs. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted January 25, 2023 Share Posted January 25, 2023 3 minutes ago, CoastalWx said: You hope that the chaotic nature of these patters means to forego the op runs and roll with ensembles. So living and dying by the op runs is a good way to stroke out. I mentioned this earlier (i think in the Jan thread), but hopefully 2/1 breaks our way. That's the first one where I feel like if we can grab a decent event there and lay down some pack, that would make the whole colder period and any additional threats feel better from a winter enthusiast standpoint. Plus, eventually you need to hit on some 50/50 deals if you're gonna salvage a respectable snowfall number. If you keep whiffing on almost every 50% shot or even every 30-40% shot, then that's how you get a full blown ratter. I feel like this winter, we're like 0 for 7 on 30-50% deals...ok, maybe 1 for 8 if we count 1/23's Kraft ending, but that wasn't good for everyone in SNE....by shear chance, you'd think we would've hit 1 or 2 by now. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Spanks45 Posted January 25, 2023 Share Posted January 25, 2023 I love how at the end of today's GEFS, the blues start to show up along the west coast...same thing all winter long, hopefully we score something the first 10 days of February. Because once the GEFS see those blues, there won't be any turning back, lol... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted January 25, 2023 Share Posted January 25, 2023 1 minute ago, Spanks45 said: I love how at the end of today's GEFS, the blues start to show up along the west coast...same thing all winter long, hopefully we score something the first 10 days of February. Because once the GEFS see those blues, there won't be any turning back, lol... The one caveat to the blues in the west and the reds in the east is that the EPO ridge is maintaining....so the source region stays cold. We may shift to a SE ridge warmer pattern, but it doesn't look like the utter non-stop furnace we saw in the first 3 weeks of January with no chance for cold. There could be threats mixed in because of the source region staying cold. Even Quebec stays below normal when we're above normal. So yeah....maybe we get a torch period, but it could easily be interrupted by some cold shots and threats if that EPO ridge is maintaining. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Sey-Mour Snow Posted January 25, 2023 Share Posted January 25, 2023 27 minutes ago, 40/70 Benchmark said: Off hour run was snowy...even more shocking. Exactly it’s always the off hour runs. If you want your digital snow fix look at a storm vista 18z gfs snow map. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Typhoon Tip Posted January 25, 2023 Share Posted January 25, 2023 ... mm, keep in mind also.. the end of the GEFs is what, D15 -ish...? I'm not sure what others have in mind, but how long for this world this pattern was supposed to be was suspect - that's not changed. It wasn't going on interminably; there's valid speculation out there that this may not last through the middle Feb period and we'd break the other way. Not impossible that your seeing right through to the other side - so to speak. Just keep that in mind. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted January 25, 2023 Share Posted January 25, 2023 5 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said: I mentioned this earlier (i think in the Jan thread), but hopefully 2/1 breaks our way. That's the first one where I feel like if we can grab a decent event there and lay down some pack, that would make the whole colder period and any additional threats feel better from a winter enthusiast standpoint. Plus, eventually you need to hit on some 50/50 deals if you're gonna salvage a respectable snowfall number. If you keep whiffing on almost every 50% shot or even every 30-40% shot, then that's how you get a full blown ratter. I feel like this winter, we're like 0 for 7 on 30-50% deals...ok, maybe 1 for 8 if we count 1/23's Kraft ending, but that wasn't good for everyone in SNE....by shear chance, you'd think we would've hit 1 or 2 by now. That's what kills me. Nothing seems to go right. I suppose when I look back, we got lucky on some events even in the last several seasons which were kind of meh as a whole. But still, at least in those deals...everyone for the most part got something. This is just Mark Bellhorn type striking out. Maybe we can get 2004 PS Bellhorn at some point. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Sey-Mour Snow Posted January 25, 2023 Share Posted January 25, 2023 Well the torch is now in sight… just as I feared last week Jan 25-31 temps well above average.. then we turn colder feb 1-8 and need to cash in before this pattern depicted kicks in.. 1 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted January 25, 2023 Share Posted January 25, 2023 25 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said: The one caveat to the blues in the west and the reds in the east is that the EPO ridge is maintaining....so the source region stays cold. We may shift to a SE ridge warmer pattern, but it doesn't look like the utter non-stop furnace we saw in the first 3 weeks of January with no chance for cold. There could be threats mixed in because of the source region staying cold. Even Quebec stays below normal when we're above normal. So yeah....maybe we get a torch period, but it could easily be interrupted by some cold shots and threats if that EPO ridge is maintaining. EPS had a more poleward ridge too. Actually another cold shot into the Midwest and moving east to end it. Don't see signs of a return to a disaster yet. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted January 25, 2023 Share Posted January 25, 2023 20 minutes ago, CoastalWx said: EPS had a more poleward ridge too. Actually another cold shot into the Midwest and moving east to end it. Don't see signs of a return to a disaster yet. Yep., I noticed that....as long as the EPO ridge is quite poleward there, I don't see unabated torch....you can still have warmer periods, but they likely get interrupted because it's hard to keep the cold completely out when it's lurking so close by. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWolf Posted January 25, 2023 Share Posted January 25, 2023 31 minutes ago, CoastalWx said: EPS had a more poleward ridge too. Actually another cold shot into the Midwest and moving east to end it. Don't see signs of a return to a disaster yet. 9 minutes ago, ORH_wxman said: Yep., I noticed that....as long as the EPO ridge is quite poleward there, I don't see unabated torch....you can still have warmer periods, but they likely get interrupted because it's hard to keep the cold completely out when it's lurking so close by. Well you guys know Seymour…he’s a worrier. Any light oranges in the east and blues out west, and it’s curtains in his eyes..that’s all he sees. lol. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Sey-Mour Snow Posted January 25, 2023 Share Posted January 25, 2023 1 minute ago, WinterWolf said: Well you guys know Seymour…he’s a worrier. Any light oranges in the east and blues out west, and it’s curtains in his eyes..that’s all he sees. lol. I’m going to worry til me and you both get a snowstorm. I posted GEFS they are talking about eps .. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CoastalWx Posted January 25, 2023 Share Posted January 25, 2023 Hey I worry too lol. I'm kind of numb at this point. 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RUNNAWAYICEBERG Posted January 25, 2023 Share Posted January 25, 2023 5 minutes ago, WinterWolf said: Well you guys know Seymour…he’s a worrier. Any light oranges in the east and blues out west, and it’s curtains in his eyes..that’s all he sees. lol. He should See-more Hope? 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxWatcher007 Posted January 25, 2023 Share Posted January 25, 2023 3 minutes ago, WinterWolf said: Well you guys know Seymour…he’s a worrier. Any light oranges in the east and blues out west, and it’s curtains in his eyes..that’s all he sees. lol. Dude…where have you been the last two months? Any light oranges in the east and blues out west HAVE been curtains…for basically any location east of the Rockies 1 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
EastonSN+ Posted January 25, 2023 Share Posted January 25, 2023 5 minutes ago, Sey-Mour Snow said: I’m going to worry til me and you both get a snowstorm. I posted GEFS they are talking about eps .. Hopefully MJO 8 by end of Feb? 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WinterWolf Posted January 25, 2023 Share Posted January 25, 2023 5 minutes ago, Sey-Mour Snow said: I’m going to worry til me and you both get a snowstorm. I posted GEFS they are talking about eps .. Fair enough. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ORH_wxman Posted January 25, 2023 Share Posted January 25, 2023 2 minutes ago, WxWatcher007 said: Dude…where have you been the last two months? Any light oranges in the east and blues out west HAVE been curtains…for basically any location east of the Rockies Blues over the east didn't do much good either. 1 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RUNNAWAYICEBERG Posted January 25, 2023 Share Posted January 25, 2023 1 minute ago, ORH_wxman said: Blues over the east didn't do much good either. Blue…balled. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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