madwx Posted January 28, 2023 Share Posted January 28, 2023 26 minutes ago, madwx said: 0Z HRRR is just coming out but looks like it will be wagons south from 18Z RFD goes from 1.8" to 5.8". ORD goes from 0.4" to 3.4" Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago WX Posted January 28, 2023 Share Posted January 28, 2023 NAM coming back to reality Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RCNYILWX Posted January 28, 2023 Share Posted January 28, 2023 NAM coming back to realityStill well too strong with the surface trough tomorrow night. It'll figure things out with the 06z run or 12z tomorrow I guess. Sent from my SM-G998U using Tapatalk Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago WX Posted January 28, 2023 Share Posted January 28, 2023 Just now, RCNYILWX said: Still well too strong with the surface trough tomorrow night. It'll figure things out with the 06z run or 12z tomorrow I guess. Sent from my SM-G998U using Tapatalk Baby steps with that model. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mimillman Posted January 28, 2023 Share Posted January 28, 2023 NAM either pulls epic coup (doubtful this time) or epic fail Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
madwx Posted January 28, 2023 Share Posted January 28, 2023 The models are also slowing delaying the start time. Used to be around 7AM for here but looking more like just before noon now Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DaveNay Posted January 28, 2023 Share Posted January 28, 2023 Looks like the north end of my property will get a couple inches while the south end will get a DAB. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
madwx Posted January 28, 2023 Share Posted January 28, 2023 3 minutes ago, mimillman said: NAM either pulls epic coup (doubtful this time) or epic fail if we get around 9" like the NAMs are saying, I'll eat a hat 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thundersnow12 Posted January 28, 2023 Share Posted January 28, 2023 1 hour ago, Hoosier said: Your call is due by 9 pm tomorrow. Good luck getting an accurate one Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
hawkeye_wx Posted January 28, 2023 Share Posted January 28, 2023 All the short-term models (hrrr/nam/fv3) are still well north of the 18z Euro. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mimillman Posted January 28, 2023 Share Posted January 28, 2023 3 minutes ago, Thundersnow12 said: Good luck getting an accurate one Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ChiTownSnow Posted January 28, 2023 Share Posted January 28, 2023 This is always was going to be a nowcast type of situation.. tough to pinpoint such a narrow band any earlier Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RCNYILWX Posted January 28, 2023 Share Posted January 28, 2023 The NAM remains very different from the other non CAM guidance at 850 mb, with a 1410 m 850 mb low, while other guidance is much weaker with 1440 850 mb heights. This induces stronger 850 mb winds and brings the 850 mb 0 line much farther north. I definitely don't buy the stronger surface trough and the front getting north of Chicago tomorrow night, which is also related to being stronger aloft. There are times when the NAM is onto something with warm noses and freezing rain threats farther north, but this looks like the model struggling and being too amped with mass fields and gradually correcting. Might be a nugget of truth with the warm nose farther north than some of the globals show, though still think mainly south of I-80 for mixed ptypes. 2 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-K Posted January 28, 2023 Share Posted January 28, 2023 Sending out the good vibes friends 10 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted January 28, 2023 Share Posted January 28, 2023 40 minutes ago, RCNYILWX said: The NAM remains very different from the other non CAM guidance at 850 mb, with a 1410 m 850 mb low, while other guidance is much weaker with 1440 850 mb heights. This induces stronger 850 mb winds and brings the 850 mb 0 line much farther north. I definitely don't buy the stronger surface trough and the front getting north of Chicago tomorrow night, which is also related to being stronger aloft. There are times when the NAM is onto something with warm noses and freezing rain threats farther north, but this looks like the model struggling and being too amped with mass fields and gradually correcting. Might be a nugget of truth with the warm nose farther north than some of the globals show, though still think mainly south of I-80 for mixed ptypes. You think you guys may need to increase the ice threat a little in central to southern cwa? Current output would suggest maybe a tenth of accretion being possible in some areas. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RCNYILWX Posted January 28, 2023 Share Posted January 28, 2023 You think you guys may need to increase the ice threat a little in central to southern cwa? Current output would suggest maybe a tenth of accretion being possible in some areas.Thinking we will. Did increase things last night some. Sent from my SM-G998U using Tapatalk Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
madwx Posted January 28, 2023 Share Posted January 28, 2023 GFS is about 10 to 15 miles further S with a continued narrowing of the swath Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
hawkeye_wx Posted January 28, 2023 Share Posted January 28, 2023 00z GDPS (Canadian) is still on the south edge of the model range, agreeing with the 18z Euro. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cyclone77 Posted January 28, 2023 Share Posted January 28, 2023 1 minute ago, hawkeye_wx said: 00z GDPS (Canadian) is still on the south edge of the model range, agreeing with the 18z Euro. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Harry Posted January 28, 2023 Share Posted January 28, 2023 And the goofballs at GRR are basically riding the NAM. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WestMichigan Posted January 28, 2023 Share Posted January 28, 2023 Just now, Harry said: And the goofballs at GRR are basically riding the NAM. yeah, a little odd for them but they do tend to go with the most GRR centric model 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
michsnowfreak Posted January 28, 2023 Share Posted January 28, 2023 This is what I get for complimenting the models on performing so well with the January 25th snowstorm. For an event that's one day away I have literally no idea what's going to happen here. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Harry Posted January 28, 2023 Share Posted January 28, 2023 6 minutes ago, WestMichigan said: yeah, a little odd for them but they do tend to go with the most GRR centric model That they do. It's like they have no shame. Ofcourse having followed them for well over a decade there certainly no accountability there either. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SolidIcewx Posted January 28, 2023 Share Posted January 28, 2023 1 minute ago, michsnowfreak said: This is what I get for complimenting the models on performing so well with the January 25th snowstorm. For an event that's one day away I have literally no idea what's going to happen here. I agree the sun shined on the dogs ass that time. But that’s what makes this fun 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Harry Posted January 28, 2023 Share Posted January 28, 2023 15 minutes ago, WestMichigan said: yeah, a little odd for them but they do tend to go with the most GRR centric model Sadly on another note the best they had there ( WDM ) has retired. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WestMichigan Posted January 28, 2023 Share Posted January 28, 2023 3 minutes ago, Harry said: Sadly on another note the best they had there ( WDM ) has retired. I hadn't heard he retired. He was writing AFD's not that long ago. That is a loss for the office for sure. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Harry Posted January 28, 2023 Share Posted January 28, 2023 1 minute ago, WestMichigan said: I hadn't heard he retired. He was writing AFD's not that long ago. That is a loss for the office for sure. That it is. A huge loss imo. However I see on his FB page he has started his own blog. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RogueWaves Posted January 28, 2023 Share Posted January 28, 2023 20 minutes ago, Harry said: Sadly on another note the best they had there ( WDM ) has retired. Whoa! Say it ain't so! For some reason I thought "Bill" was one of the younger Mets in that office. Sad day in our little Wx world Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CheeselandSkies Posted January 28, 2023 Share Posted January 28, 2023 3 hours ago, madwx said: if we get around 9" like the NAMs are saying, I'll eat a hat 0Z HRRR has us getting 8.2" (Kuchera, and I think this will be fluffier than 10:1) by 12Z Sunday. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
hawkeye_wx Posted January 28, 2023 Share Posted January 28, 2023 00z Euro 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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