SchaumburgStormer Posted January 27, 2023 Share Posted January 27, 2023 5 minutes ago, SchaumburgStormer said: Euro gonna be north too Eh, actually about the same as 18z. A bit wetter. Has the best shows at the border and north 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cyclone77 Posted January 27, 2023 Share Posted January 27, 2023 This evening's trends have been pretty disappointing for the I-80 crowd. I guess we'll try again in 2-3 weeks eh? What a pos winter lol. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
hlcater Posted January 27, 2023 Share Posted January 27, 2023 Looking like another broom snow for those south of 20. lol. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cyclone77 Posted January 27, 2023 Share Posted January 27, 2023 It's amazing how often we see these east/west oriented fronto snows end up along that route 20 corridor in Iowa, and southern WI to near IL border zone. What makes it more interesting is how pretty much every time the models show it setting up further south in the mid range. It's just poor modeling for this particular type of setup apparently. 3 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted January 27, 2023 Share Posted January 27, 2023 Probably fairly safe to discard the 00z NAM positioning. Not that that's gonna help me a ton, but good news for folks near the southern edge of where the NAM places the better snows. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Baum Posted January 27, 2023 Share Posted January 27, 2023 Sorry, looks about right. And this one looks especially fickle with small narrow band. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cary67 Posted January 27, 2023 Share Posted January 27, 2023 Not meant to be. Seems short range models and Euro shifting north. Another grass clippings snow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago WX Posted January 27, 2023 Share Posted January 27, 2023 Going to need the RGEM to score the coup. 6z still solid for N IL. Otherwise, everything is wagons north again (6z Nams, 6z HRRR, and 9z RAP, and 6z GFS slightly north). Think everyone had an idea this would go a bit further north in the end, but some of these moves are stupid in the past 24 hours. Still time for more changes I guess... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stevo6899 Posted January 27, 2023 Share Posted January 27, 2023 1 hour ago, Chicago WX said: Going to need the RGEM to score the coup. 6z still solid for N IL. Otherwise, everything is wagons north again (6z Nams, 6z HRRR, and 9z RAP, and 6z GFS slightly north). Think everyone had an idea this would go a bit further north in the end, but some of these moves are stupid in the past 24 hours. Still time for more changes I guess... In the past the Canadian had been better at depicting these waves dropping south out of Canada. I think models are struggling where the baroclinic zone sets up after this first wave rolls through today. They should get a better idea by tonights runs. I think the bands will settle further south, like the rgem/gfs are showing Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SchaumburgStormer Posted January 27, 2023 Share Posted January 27, 2023 HRRR trying to make this a Green Bay special. Really an obnoxious spread amongst the models, basically going to have to nowcast this thing. I-88 and north in IL can get the storied 0-8” forecast 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SchaumburgStormer Posted January 27, 2023 Share Posted January 27, 2023 12z NAM looks to be adjusting south some. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SchaumburgStormer Posted January 27, 2023 Share Posted January 27, 2023 10 minutes ago, SchaumburgStormer said: 12z NAM looks to be adjusting south some. Looked to start that way, still a shitshow for LOT folks Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Sciascia Posted January 27, 2023 Share Posted January 27, 2023 6 minutes ago, SchaumburgStormer said: Looked to start that way, still a shitshow for LOT folks Nothing like mixed precip all the way into the southern portion of Boone county. Verbatim, I’m just barely in the snow on that run. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stevo6899 Posted January 27, 2023 Share Posted January 27, 2023 it doesn't look like the 12z rgem is gonna back down on its further south location of the banding, but it does have a more NE orientation once its get over by dtw. Hopefully the bands can stay on an east to west line trough michigan. It would be a bummer to only get an inch while areas just 30 miles to the NW see 8-10. seen that horror picture too many times. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MidwestChaser Posted January 27, 2023 Share Posted January 27, 2023 3 5 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RCNYILWX Posted January 27, 2023 Share Posted January 27, 2023 Some (rambling) thoughts before I go to sleep:While the 6"+ snow potential has clearly shifted north, I continue to believe that the NAM and CAMs are too aggressively far north in their depictions of accumulating snow. For me, the NAM remains a toss with it still spinning up a meaningfully stronger weak surface low reflection and being way farther north with the stationary front. For it to show this, means it's also stronger aloft. The NAM can do better with warm advection setups, but if it's too strong with the system and low level mass response, the magnitude of 850 mb winds and warm advection will also be too strong to an extent, and affect placement of mesoscale banding. Even though the ECMWF shifted north with the heaviest banding, if you still want snow in northern Illinois, important to note that the ECMWF and its ensembles have 9 km resolution, so it's not like you can toss it for being a too smoothed out global model. The near 0.2" QPF gets down to around I-88, so with higher than 10:1 ratios, still can put you in 3+ range. Tomorrow evening into the overnight, as cold advection starts to increase, large scale forcing will also increase (modest mid level support and upper jet right entrance region), expecting light to moderate snow north of I-80, with a threat for freezing rain south. Wouldn't be surprised if the backside snow lingers all the way into Sunday morning. If you're looking for sources of error - check out the non-NAM and RAP/HRRR depiction of 850 mb fgen tomorrow - still over northern IL. It appears the sweet spot for the fgen response may be in 850-700 mb layer, though the models can certainly err in the placement of response to an fgen circulation. Sometimes low level response can be more dominant, or you can get dual banding. Mesoscale snow band forecasting is essentially forecasting convection, so it's more challenging and uncertain than already tough winter weather forecasting. The GEMs (and 2.5 km HRDPS) continue to be stubbornly steadfast in their more southerly solutions and the GFS has trended north since yesterday, but still gets 1/4"+ liquid equivalent down to the I-80 corridor (slight improvement from 06z). I certainly wouldn't discount pessimism about getting the higher end amounts down into the heart of the metro, but gut feeling is decent accums (~2-4") get down to a bit south of I-88, and the northern tier is still in play to get into the heavier banding. Just not ready to buy into the CAM idea of little/no snow south of the WI state line. Also not ready to buy into the Canucks scoring a total coup on this, though it sure would be nice 4 7 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-K Posted January 27, 2023 Share Posted January 27, 2023 tldr^ riding the ggem to big totals 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-K Posted January 27, 2023 Share Posted January 27, 2023 12z gefs not terrible either Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
iBrian Posted January 27, 2023 Share Posted January 27, 2023 30 minutes ago, A-L-E-K said: tldr^ riding the ggem to big totals Maybe I missed it, but still waiting on a call? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SchaumburgStormer Posted January 27, 2023 Share Posted January 27, 2023 30 minutes ago, A-L-E-K said: 12z gefs not terrible either Well, we’ve also got old uncle Ukie on our side… 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted January 27, 2023 Share Posted January 27, 2023 Insert Michael Jackson eating popcorn pic Quite a remarkable spread between the globals and non-globals for an event starting tomorrow. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stevo6899 Posted January 27, 2023 Share Posted January 27, 2023 7 minutes ago, SchaumburgStormer said: Well, we’ve also got old uncle Ukie on our side… Gem is even further south than the rgem. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SolidIcewx Posted January 27, 2023 Share Posted January 27, 2023 1 minute ago, Hoosier said: Insert Michael Jackson eating popcorn pic Quite a remarkable spread between the globals and non-globals for an event starting tomorrow. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Baum Posted January 27, 2023 Share Posted January 27, 2023 maybe my skepticism can score us a coup. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted January 27, 2023 Share Posted January 27, 2023 The 15z RAP did shift a bit south, so maybe that is the start of something. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-K Posted January 27, 2023 Share Posted January 27, 2023 euro gonna step south? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SchaumburgStormer Posted January 27, 2023 Share Posted January 27, 2023 8 minutes ago, Hoosier said: The 15z RAP did shift a bit south, so maybe that is the start of something. Euro coming south too Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Thundersnow12 Posted January 27, 2023 Share Posted January 27, 2023 5 minutes ago, A-L-E-K said: euro gonna step south? Little step south for the graspers and those who need 2-5" along I-88 to verify. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
A-L-E-K Posted January 27, 2023 Share Posted January 27, 2023 11 minutes ago, Thundersnow12 said: Little step south for the graspers and those who need 2-5" along I-88 to verify. checking in Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
sbnwx85 Posted January 27, 2023 Share Posted January 27, 2023 I'm on the edge of either adding an inch or two of snow or losing an inch or two of snow before the arctic air moves in next week. Pretty neat. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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