cyclone77 Posted January 26, 2023 Share Posted January 26, 2023 3 minutes ago, mimillman said: RGEM is pretty cool. Too bad these events never pan out for Chicagoland RGEM came in smokin' hot for northern IL 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MidwestChaser Posted January 26, 2023 Share Posted January 26, 2023 17 minutes ago, cyclone77 said: RGEM came in smokin' hot for northern IL 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mimillman Posted January 27, 2023 Share Posted January 27, 2023 This seems realistic and in line with my thoughts. Ill go 3-6” for majority of LOT CWA with closer to 1-2” in the southern counties. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
roardog Posted January 27, 2023 Share Posted January 27, 2023 These things tend to have over achieving temps south of the low track. Wherever the wind manages to go SW, there will probably be a mini torch. These can be frustrating in the spring when it’s 70F south of the front and 40F with rain and fog north of it. Thankfully, it’s January so I’d rather be on the cold side of it. 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cyclone77 Posted January 27, 2023 Share Posted January 27, 2023 I'm hoping the trailing precip later Sat afternoon and evening overachieves. That would be our best hope to get 3"+ down here closer to I-80. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RogueWaves Posted January 27, 2023 Share Posted January 27, 2023 2 hours ago, Stevo6899 said: Gfs consistently dropping another 6-8 along 96/696 through Michigan. Pretty rare to get back to back 6 inchers in a matter of a week around these parts. What's more rare for DTW and/or the N burbs, a true 12+ or a pair of 6's? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stevo6899 Posted January 27, 2023 Share Posted January 27, 2023 3 minutes ago, RogueWaves said: What's more rare for DTW and/or the N burbs, a true 12+ or a pair of 6's? Equally unlikely. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Owensnow Posted January 27, 2023 Share Posted January 27, 2023 Looking like yet another rain event right on the heels of the sloppy 4 inches we just got sigh. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted January 27, 2023 Share Posted January 27, 2023 37 minutes ago, roardog said: These things tend to have over achieving temps south of the low track. Wherever the wind manages to go SW, there will probably be a mini torch. These can be frustrating in the spring when it’s 70F south of the front and 40F with rain and fog north of it. Thankfully, it’s January so I’d rather be on the cold side of it. Could definitely envision temps overperforming south of front, especially if cloud cover isn't too thick but perhaps even in that case as well. Won't be precipitating south of the front during much of the day and there's not that much snow cover to melt. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
ChiTownSnow Posted January 27, 2023 Share Posted January 27, 2023 4 hours ago, Chicago Storm said: he's been very wishy washy...very un-alek like. Playing both sides, you're never wrong.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SchaumburgStormer Posted January 27, 2023 Share Posted January 27, 2023 I feel like anecdotally, the warm front/surge seems to get held up quite often along I-80/southern tip of Lake Michigan. Wouldn’t surprise me if that’s a big demarcation line. (Zero meteorological reasoning behind this thought, fyi) Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
hawkeye_wx Posted January 27, 2023 Share Posted January 27, 2023 The HRRR is still drifting north. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cyclone77 Posted January 27, 2023 Share Posted January 27, 2023 9 minutes ago, hawkeye_wx said: The HRRR is still drifting north. I can't see ALEK busting by over 5". Toss 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
hlcater Posted January 27, 2023 Share Posted January 27, 2023 NAM is going wayyyyyyy north Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago WX Posted January 27, 2023 Share Posted January 27, 2023 0z NAM looks quite a bit north. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SchaumburgStormer Posted January 27, 2023 Share Posted January 27, 2023 NAM going to jackpot MSN 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago WX Posted January 27, 2023 Share Posted January 27, 2023 Might even be north of MSN. What a move. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DaveNay Posted January 27, 2023 Share Posted January 27, 2023 The HRRR is still drifting north.Sent from my SM-G991U using Tapatalk Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chicago WX Posted January 27, 2023 Share Posted January 27, 2023 Places in NE and IA went from warning snows to pretty much nada in one run of the NAM. Awesome model. 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RCNYILWX Posted January 27, 2023 Share Posted January 27, 2023 If the other guidance stays relatively similar, it shows how unreliable the NAM is. I can recall it doing exactly this sort of thing in similar setups at around this range that went on to produce solid accumulating snow in the area. Having this sort of jump muddies the water forecast wise. Re. the HRRR, it probably shouldn't be used for winter forecasting beyond 24 hours, and 24 hours out is still a stretch. The HRRR is most useful for near term trends, within about 12 hours, maybe as much as 18 hours. 7 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SchaumburgStormer Posted January 27, 2023 Share Posted January 27, 2023 11 minutes ago, RCNYILWX said: If the other guidance stays relatively similar, it shows how unreliable the NAM is. I can recall it doing exactly this sort of thing in similar setups at around this range that went on to produce solid accumulating snow in the area. Having this sort of jump muddies the water forecast wise. Re. the HRRR, it probably shouldn't be used for winter forecasting beyond 24 hours, and 24 hours out is still a stretch. The HRRR is most useful for near term trends, within about 12 hours, maybe as much as 18 hours. It’s had the weeble-wobbles for sure Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
sbnwx85 Posted January 27, 2023 Share Posted January 27, 2023 When you think there's a trend southward: 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Hoosier Posted January 27, 2023 Share Posted January 27, 2023 1 hour ago, SchaumburgStormer said: I feel like anecdotally, the warm front/surge seems to get held up quite often along I-80/southern tip of Lake Michigan. Wouldn’t surprise me if that’s a big demarcation line. (Zero meteorological reasoning behind this thought, fyi) Yes it does. And with a shearing system/lack of a stronger surface low, I really can't see the 00z NAM positioning coming to fruition. In fact I'd almost bet money against it and would favor something farther south. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mimillman Posted January 27, 2023 Share Posted January 27, 2023 RGEM a smidge north but not by much Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
hawkeye_wx Posted January 27, 2023 Share Posted January 27, 2023 The 00z GFS nudged north as well. The south edge in Iowa may be razor sharp. The Chicago area at least gets a late influx of moisture as the wave reaches them, which spreads the love a bit. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mimillman Posted January 27, 2023 Share Posted January 27, 2023 The NAM is a far northern outlier so far in tonight’s guidance albeit most models have ticked north slightly / changed orientation of the main axis of heaviest precipitation Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mimillman Posted January 27, 2023 Share Posted January 27, 2023 1 minute ago, hawkeye_wx said: The 00z GFS nudged north as well. 3 hours ago, mimillman said: This seems realistic and in line with my thoughts. Ill go 3-6” for majority of LOT CWA with closer to 1-2” in the southern counties. Rarely see these two have carbon copy agreement Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Malacka11 Posted January 27, 2023 Share Posted January 27, 2023 Aren't the Canadians actually farther south? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mimillman Posted January 27, 2023 Share Posted January 27, 2023 1 minute ago, Malacka11 said: Aren't the Canadians actually farther south? The global is the regional is not. Also anyone notice this recent trend to bring in some more Gulf moisture? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SchaumburgStormer Posted January 27, 2023 Share Posted January 27, 2023 Euro gonna be north too Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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