Carvers Gap Posted January 26, 2023 Author Share Posted January 26, 2023 All three deterministic models have a slider. The CMC is a bit more north and mainly west TN. The Euro and GFS have more of a west to east axis. Again....lots of plates for modeling to juggle. Survive and advance. That is all we can do. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Carvers Gap Posted January 26, 2023 Author Share Posted January 26, 2023 3 minutes ago, Matthew70 said: Ice ice baby. Sharpen up those ice skates and dig out the umbrellas. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TellicoWx Posted January 26, 2023 Share Posted January 26, 2023 7 minutes ago, Holston_River_Rambler said: Do these HPs usually press better than modeled, or is that just a weenie wish casting rule? First thought that went thru my head on that 18z run...Goofy just looks off more than usual. This whole setup is just screaming ice west of the plateau to me, across all 3 models. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Silas Lang Posted January 26, 2023 Share Posted January 26, 2023 I am starting to feel pretty confident for winter weather in the western part of the state. Less confidence as you go east and south. The trend today is further south. It is also nice to finally see something similar on the GFS and Euro. Let's see if it holds or continues. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Silas Lang Posted January 26, 2023 Share Posted January 26, 2023 Although looking at the Canadian, it follows more of the pattern we have had this winter of LPs going almost due north to Ohio. Hopefully it's just sniffing glue, but I'm not really sure what's preventing that scenario from happening. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Carvers Gap Posted January 27, 2023 Author Share Posted January 27, 2023 I am not convinced that tonight's Euro Weeklies are correct....It looks to me like convection is about to fire around Indonesia if the CPC is correct. That should lead to the MJO warm tour mid-month, but the Weeklies are having none of it. They are basically BN for temps for the next 46 days. I will hold with the idea that a warm-up is coming mid-month. That seems about right, and fits with Indonesian convection. That said, there are some rare examples where it stays cold despite the MJO. I am thinking 94 or 96 (Jan-Feb) did that. I can't remember. If someone remembers, let me know. JB had a great post about this tonight..... 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Carvers Gap Posted January 27, 2023 Author Share Posted January 27, 2023 46d temp map.... 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Daniel Boone Posted January 27, 2023 Share Posted January 27, 2023 4 minutes ago, Carvers Gap said: I am not convinced that tonight's Euro Weeklies are correct....It looks to me like convection is about to fire around Indonesia if the CPC is correct. That should lead to the MJO warm tour mid-month, but the Weeklies are having none of it. They are basically BN for temps for the next 46 days. I will hold with the idea that a warm-up is coming mid-month. That seems about right, and fits with Indonesian convection. That said, there are some rare examples where it stays cold despite the MJO. I am thinking 94 or 96 (Jan-Feb) did that. I can't remember. If someone remembers, let me know. '96 I think. Although there were mild interludes, they were short lived 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Carvers Gap Posted January 27, 2023 Author Share Posted January 27, 2023 Just now, Daniel Boone said: '96 I think. Although there were mild interludes, they were short lived So Jan-Feb 96 defied the warm MJO phases? That was a Nina year as well I think.... 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Daniel Boone Posted January 27, 2023 Share Posted January 27, 2023 Just now, Carvers Gap said: So Jan-Feb 96 defied the warm MJO phases? That was a Nina year as well I think.... Yeah. The main reason may of been strong blocking though. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Carvers Gap Posted January 27, 2023 Author Share Posted January 27, 2023 8 minutes ago, Daniel Boone said: Yeah. The main reason may of been strong blocking though. JB mentioned tonight(and I know he takes some heat at times), mentioned that the switch in ENSO is possibly causing contradictory signals in LR modeling. MJO plots are stalling in 3 which is cold in Feb(warm in Jan). Also, if I remember correctly, El Nino climatology favors a back loaded winter w/ a mean trough in the SE. I was expecting an all out torch on the Weeklies. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Carvers Gap Posted January 27, 2023 Author Share Posted January 27, 2023 10 minutes ago, Daniel Boone said: Yeah. The main reason may of been strong blocking though. Maybe the best I can do is heights over Alaska are AN. Overall, the continent is just cold regardless of the pattern. The MJO may well just make it less cold here. IDK. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Met1985 Posted January 27, 2023 Share Posted January 27, 2023 12 minutes ago, Carvers Gap said: JB mentioned tonight(and I know he takes some heat at times), mentioned that the switch in ENSO is possibly causing contradictory signals in LR modeling. MJO plots are stalling in 3 which is cold in Feb(warm in Jan). Also, if I remember correctly, El Nino climatology favors a back loaded winter w/ a mean trough in the SE. I was expecting an all out torch on the Weeklies. You know I've been thinking us pretty much switching the enso state is causing the models to really go crazy. The signal is complex and off because of that. I think we are going to have a damn cold spring because if it also. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Carvers Gap Posted January 27, 2023 Author Share Posted January 27, 2023 5 minutes ago, Met1985 said: You know I've been thinking us pretty much switching the enso state is causing the models to really go crazy. The signal is complex and off because of that. I think we are going to have a damn cold spring because if it also. Yeah, Nino springs are often COLD! I would think the mountains will see snow deep into spring if true. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Daniel Boone Posted January 27, 2023 Share Posted January 27, 2023 18 minutes ago, Carvers Gap said: JB mentioned tonight(and I know he takes some heat at times), mentioned that the switch in ENSO is possibly causing contradictory signals in LR modeling. MJO plots are stalling in 3 which is cold in Feb(warm in Jan). Also, if I remember correctly, El Nino climatology favors a back loaded winter w/ a mean trough in the SE. I was expecting an all out torch on the Weeklies. Yeah, JB is actually very good with teleconnections and all facets of the field actually. He just, as we know, wears cold glasses and let's that sway him many times. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Carvers Gap Posted January 27, 2023 Author Share Posted January 27, 2023 6 minutes ago, Met1985 said: You know I've been thinking us pretty much switching the enso state is causing the models to really go crazy. The signal is complex and off because of that. I think we are going to have a damn cold spring because if it also. The pattern on LR modeling is volatile w/ a lot of variability - nothing locks in. Way more variable than what we have seen this winter due to shortening wavelengths. Also, JB mentioned the MJO signal typically has less impact later in winter....I may have misheard or interpreted that. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Met1985 Posted January 27, 2023 Share Posted January 27, 2023 6 minutes ago, Carvers Gap said: The pattern on LR modeling is volatile w/ a lot of variability - nothing locks in. Way more variable than what we have seen this winter due to shortening wavelengths. Also, JB mentioned the MJO signal typically has less impact later in winter....I may have misheard or interpreted that. Yeah I think you are right. I think it is definitely contributing to the volatility of the models. I mean I can't remember when we had such swings on all the models from run to run. 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Daniel Boone Posted January 27, 2023 Share Posted January 27, 2023 I'm thinking the Strat delay effect may be what the Weeklies could be factoring in along with it's Model runs having the MJO in cold phase or COD. I would think maybe it's keying on Blocking, particularly since it depicts coldest anomalies out west and they look to slide east. However, it doesn't look that way by the looks around Greenland. Still could possibly be during some of that timeframe. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Carvers Gap Posted January 27, 2023 Author Share Posted January 27, 2023 Just now, Daniel Boone said: I'm thinking the Strat delay effect may be what the Weeklies could be factoring in along with it's Model runs having the MJO in cold phase or COD. I would think maybe it's keying on Blocking, particularly since it depicts coldest anomalies out west and they look to slide east. However, it doesn't look that way by the looks around Greenland. Still could possibly be during some of that timeframe. Main thing I see is AN heights over Alaska and a very cold NA continent. There are some AN heights over the pole. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Daniel Boone Posted January 27, 2023 Share Posted January 27, 2023 1 minute ago, Carvers Gap said: Main thing I see is AN heights over Alaska and a very cold NA continent. There are some AN heights over the pole. Yeah. The -NAO signal's not there. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Carvers Gap Posted January 27, 2023 Author Share Posted January 27, 2023 36 minutes ago, Daniel Boone said: Yeah. The -NAO signal's not there. I have been digging through analogs....Feb 1994 and 2011 have some resemblance to LR modeling. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Carvers Gap Posted January 27, 2023 Author Share Posted January 27, 2023 Check this out....Just using the analog package for d6-10 from CPC. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Carvers Gap Posted January 27, 2023 Author Share Posted January 27, 2023 And then look at the 30d 500mb map from the Euro Weeklies...not an exact match but you can see what they have that analog heavily weighted. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Carvers Gap Posted January 27, 2023 Author Share Posted January 27, 2023 Good luck to the overnight crew! 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Matthew70 Posted January 27, 2023 Share Posted January 27, 2023 8 minutes ago, Carvers Gap said: Good luck to the overnight crew! Let’s start reeling this in. It is less than 7 days. 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Silas Lang Posted January 27, 2023 Share Posted January 27, 2023 Using the totally valid metric of clown maps, it's pretty easy to see the potential for next week. Nothing crazy, but a statewide 1 to 3 inches doesn't sound unreasonable. I haven't dug in, so I don't how much of this is ice or sleet, but still a winter event regardless. Just need to get a little more southern jog to get the whole state. The trend is good on the GFS! 5 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Daniel Boone Posted January 27, 2023 Share Posted January 27, 2023 2 minutes ago, Silas Lang said: Using the totally valid metric of clown maps, it's pretty easy to see the potential for next week. Nothing crazy, but a statewide 1 to 3 inches doesn't sound unreasonable. I haven't dug in, so I don't how much of this is ice or sleet, but still a winter event regardless. Just need to get a little more southern jog to get the whole state. The trend is good on the GFS! Yeah. Has Total of 4-8 the 2 waves combined for parts of area. So, hopefully it pans out and we'll be somewhat satisfied considering the terrible fate of this winter so far. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Silas Lang Posted January 27, 2023 Share Posted January 27, 2023 Here is the p type break down. Note that this doesn't include a potential second wave. 2 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Silas Lang Posted January 27, 2023 Share Posted January 27, 2023 Canadian is a massive ice storm for West and Central TN. Unfortunately not any snow. 1 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Matthew70 Posted January 27, 2023 Share Posted January 27, 2023 2 minutes ago, Silas Lang said: Canadian is a massive ice storm for West and Central TN. Unfortunately not any snow. I will take a HARD PASS on any ice! The extreme cold temps already damaged many of the evergreens & shrubs. Sheesh last thing we all need is trees to be damaged also. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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