Carvers Gap Posted January 26, 2023 Author Share Posted January 26, 2023 The 12z GFS has a light snow event....and then is very suppressed...very. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Carvers Gap Posted January 26, 2023 Author Share Posted January 26, 2023 The 12z GFS might put snow into coastal South Carolina...that suppressed. And honestly, that is where we want that model right now. That gives it room to come back north. I wouldn't be shocked that later runs move to a Miller A. That was close....if real. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Carvers Gap Posted January 26, 2023 Author Share Posted January 26, 2023 The 12z CMC is also VERY suppressed. Modeling is "seeing" a stronger HP over the top which means colder I would guess...though I have not looked at the surface. CMC might be a mid-South special. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Carvers Gap Posted January 26, 2023 Author Share Posted January 26, 2023 At 168, the CMC has ice in northern Louisiana. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Carvers Gap Posted January 26, 2023 Author Share Posted January 26, 2023 These are not bad trends at all..........more later. But man, models are all over the place. LOL. Trend is pretty extensive suppression...to the point some of that energy just sits there and comes back as a WAA event on the CMC. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Carvers Gap Posted January 26, 2023 Author Share Posted January 26, 2023 Pick your poison, the 12z suite has a buffet of options so far. Big ol' slop fest on modeling. Interesting to see modeling seeing a stronger and/or more southerly HP. That is an interesting trend. Placement of all features is still up for grabs. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowmaker Posted January 26, 2023 Share Posted January 26, 2023 Next week does not look boring weather wise that is for sure no matter what happens. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Carvers Gap Posted January 26, 2023 Author Share Posted January 26, 2023 Looks like the 12z GFS is quicker w/ precip and gets out ahead of HP whereas the 12z CMC has precip sliding along slightly behind HP. That high placement and precip timing makes for very different solutions. For now, we take the GFS. There is some concern on my part that cold air might get trapped in the eastern valley (especially north of I-40) if this rolls in at night. The CMC looks to have a little bit of feedback over Louisiana in holding back energy, but that isn't totally different than the 0z Euro., Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TellicoWx Posted January 26, 2023 Share Posted January 26, 2023 Cmc had been very consistent honking big Ice along the MS. Apparently pivotal needs to expand their ice map range lol 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bearman Posted January 26, 2023 Share Posted January 26, 2023 I was surprised to find snow falling in Oak Ridge in the mountains up above Oakridge, on the plateau, covered in white 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Matthew70 Posted January 26, 2023 Share Posted January 26, 2023 Well, one thing is for certain it appears it’s going to be very wet beginning of February. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Carvers Gap Posted January 26, 2023 Author Share Posted January 26, 2023 12z Euro has a similar slider to the 12z GFS north of I-40. Definite suppression trend across all deterministic modeling for the first 2-3 days of Feb. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Carvers Gap Posted January 26, 2023 Author Share Posted January 26, 2023 Different time frames by just a few hours as both models(12z GFS and Euro) accentuate different waves. 12z is on the left and 0z is on the right. 3 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tnweathernut Posted January 26, 2023 Share Posted January 26, 2023 5 minutes ago, Carvers Gap said: Different time frames by just a few hours as both models(12z GFS and Euro) accentuate different waves. 12z is on the left and 0z is on the right. This one is the low hanging fruit, IMO. Close in, on multiple models, and has that "slider" look. Weak wave FTW........................ for someone.................. hopefully. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Matthew70 Posted January 26, 2023 Share Posted January 26, 2023 26 minutes ago, Carvers Gap said: Different time frames by just a few hours as both models(12z GFS and Euro) accentuate different waves. 12z is on the left and 0z is on the right. Is it me or does that scream ice? 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Silas Lang Posted January 26, 2023 Share Posted January 26, 2023 1 hour ago, Carvers Gap said: Different time frames by just a few hours as both models(12z GFS and Euro) accentuate different waves. 12z is on the left and 0z is on the right. Suppression is the trend. Just need a little bit more! For those in the east, do we want the cold air to be coming from a more North to South angle like the 12z? Seems coming from the west it would be more likely to get hung up on the plateau. 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Carvers Gap Posted January 26, 2023 Author Share Posted January 26, 2023 First wave of wintry precip on the 18z GFS is at hour 105 and incoming for Memphis, northern MS, and eastern Arkansas. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Carvers Gap Posted January 26, 2023 Author Share Posted January 26, 2023 By hour 111, most of middle and west TN are dealing w/ light wintry mix/snow/ice. It is also spread eastward, but mainly above I-40 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Carvers Gap Posted January 26, 2023 Author Share Posted January 26, 2023 That is oh so close to a multi-day over-running event. And that isn't 7-8 days out. This begins around hour 105. Still TONS of uncertainty. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Carvers Gap Posted January 26, 2023 Author Share Posted January 26, 2023 1t 156, yet another wave of precip attacks the cold boundary and results in a fairly extensive ice shield over much of middle and west TN. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Holston_River_Rambler Posted January 26, 2023 Share Posted January 26, 2023 Hopefully we can get a good NAMing over the next few days. It's been a while. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Carvers Gap Posted January 26, 2023 Author Share Posted January 26, 2023 At 165, this would result in a fairly significant winter storm for the Valley and looks somewhat similar to the 12z Euro. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Carvers Gap Posted January 26, 2023 Author Share Posted January 26, 2023 1 minute ago, Holston_River_Rambler said: Hopefully we can get a good NAMing over the next few days. It's been a while. LOL. I think the GFS is about to do it. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Holston_River_Rambler Posted January 26, 2023 Share Posted January 26, 2023 Do these HPs usually press better than modeled, or is that just a weenie wish casting rule? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Carvers Gap Posted January 26, 2023 Author Share Posted January 26, 2023 Yeah.....Happy hour is here. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
matt9697 Posted January 26, 2023 Share Posted January 26, 2023 Just now, Carvers Gap said: Yeah.....Happy hour is here. Lets keep in mind that it is just one run out of many. So much more to life than to hang out hats on one run lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Carvers Gap Posted January 26, 2023 Author Share Posted January 26, 2023 Welp, I gott a run. I hate you cut-out mid-run....but that was slider city. Timing of precip, HP or no HP over the top, etc....TBD. I do like that the 18z GFS is similar to the Euro. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Carvers Gap Posted January 26, 2023 Author Share Posted January 26, 2023 1 minute ago, matt9697 said: Lets keep in mind that it is just one run out of many. So much more to life than to hang out hats on one run lol Euro had it at 12z. We are also talking the 105 hour....not day 7-8. But yeah, definitely don't share a foxhole w/ the GFS. We know how that turns out. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Matthew70 Posted January 26, 2023 Share Posted January 26, 2023 Ice ice baby. 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
matt9697 Posted January 26, 2023 Share Posted January 26, 2023 1 minute ago, Carvers Gap said: Euro had it at 12z. We are also talking the 105 hour....not day 7-8. But yeah, definitely don't share a foxhole w/ the GFS. We know how that turns out. Nashville NWS is not impressed but typically it has to be snowing for them to call for snow so LONG TERM... (Saturday through next Thursday) Issued at 207 PM CST Thu Jan 26 2023 It stays dry into Saturday before the next rain systems comes in. This will be a quick hitting system with rain leaving Sunday night. Temperatures stay above freezing so it will just be rain. Maybe a half inch give or take a bit. Dry Monday and then it looks like the southern stream of the jet stream gets active. This will mean several weather systems for our area. It predominately looks like rain...however right now it looks like Wednesday night into Thursday there could be some mixed precipitation...rain/snow/freezing...for mainly locations along and north/west of I-40/65. This is many days away so no reason to get excited. We will keep watching this develop and the precipitation type and location will most definitely waffle over the next couple of model runs. It does look like it will be wet for the second half of the extended forecast. Right now storm total QPF for Tuesday through Thursday night is 1.5" to 3". Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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