February 2023 Medium/Long Range Pattern Discussion Thread.....Torch or Tundra???

[Carvers Gap]

Less cold...and oddly less SER.  Still suppressed at 177.  

[Carvers Gap]

I have to be honest, I will take the suppressed look right now.

[Carvers Gap]

But cold on that run is lacking for sure.

[snowmaker]

Yes that run looks odd suppressed but warmer in that time frame. 

[Matthew70]

Unbelievable how the GFS is so bi polar. 

[matt9697]

2 minutes ago, Matthew70 said:

Unbelievable how the GFS is so bi polar. 

The unbelievable part is that it is used by so many forecasters 

[Silas Lang]

1 minute ago, Matthew70 said:

Unbelievable how the GFS is so bi polar. 

Yeah, should we lean more towards the Euro? I don't really know how the models have faired this winter or even how accurate they are with these over running setups. But the GFS has has been a completely different solution each run often this winter. 

[snowmaker]

Yes the euro and Canadian seem to not have as wild fluctuations. Not that they don’t but the GFS seems to be leading in extreme run to run changes. At least it did have a boundary of precip in that timeframe even if the temps were way warm and the precip was well south.

[snowmaker]

2 minutes ago, Silas Lang said:

Yeah, should we lean more towards the Euro? I don't really know how the models have faired this winter or even how accurate they are with these over running setups. But the GFS has has been a completely different solution each run often this winter. 

I was on a Midwest forum during this past storm that cut to our northwest. Most on there said the euro and Canadian handled that storm the best. Of course that is no guarantee how any of them will handle the next one. But I would probably lean euro right now but like to digest all 3 because a lot of times it’s a split the difference type of deal to some degree.

[John1122]

4 minutes ago, Silas Lang said:

Yeah, should we lean more towards the Euro? I don't really know how the models have faired this winter or even how accurate they are with these over running setups. But the GFS has has been a completely different solution each run often this winter. 

Ignore them and look out the window with how it's gone this year. But the GFS has been really really bad this year. 3/4th of its runs are wildly wrong but since it changes so much from run to run, it falls into being right at least a few times a week. 

Massive investments and upgrades and models have gotten better at seeing storms a long way out but worse at details. Even in close to storm time. The Euro is actually most disappointing in that regard. The GFS was never great but you used to be able to almost lock in a d5 event if the Euro had it a few runs in a row. Now they all miss from 24 hours out if it's regarding frozen events. 

 

[Silas Lang]

6 minutes ago, snowmaker said:

Yes the euro and Canadian seem to not have as wild fluctuations. Not that they don’t but the GFS seems to be leading in extreme run to run changes. At least it did have a boundary of precip in that timeframe even if the temps were way warm and the precip was well south.

Yeah even the Canadian seems more consistent. 

Don't know why the GFS has been so nuts lately. It's like a box of chocolates, you never know what you're going to get. 

[Silas Lang]

4 minutes ago, snowmaker said:

I was on a Midwest forum during this past storm that cut to our northwest. Most on there said the euro and Canadian handled that storm the best. Of course that is no guarantee how any of them will handle the next one. But I would probably lean euro right now but like to digest all 3 because a lot of times it’s a split the difference type of deal to some degree.

Yeah, I still look at all 3 and figure a split the difference approach is best. But really hard to even split the difference with the way the GFS has been. 

4 minutes ago, John1122 said:

Ignore them and look out the window with how it's gone this year. But the GFS has been really really bad this year. 3/4th of its runs are wildly wrong but since it changes so much from run to run, it falls into being right at least a few times a week. 

Massive investments and upgrades and models have gotten better at seeing storms a long way out but worse at details. Even in close to storm time. The Euro is actually most disappointing in that regard. The GFS was never great but you used to be able to almost lock in a d5 event if the Euro had it a few runs in a row. Now they all miss from 24 hours out if it's regarding frozen events. 

 

I swear, I thought the GFS did great last winter? Like, it seemed like it was out performing the Euro. But now, not so much. Yeah, I remember when Euro (the king) was pretty much a lock. I miss those days. It would be nice if we still had access to those older versions of the models. 

[John1122]

4 minutes ago, Silas Lang said:

Yeah, I still look at all 3 and figure a split the difference approach is best. But really hard to even split the difference with the way the GFS has been. 

I swear, I thought the GFS did great last winter? Like, it seemed like it was out performing the Euro. But now, not so much. Yeah, I remember when Euro (the king) was pretty much a lock. I miss those days. It would be nice if we still had access to those older versions of the models. 

I believe we are using a further upgraded version of the GFS vs last winter and it's doing miserably.

[snowmaker]

1 minute ago, John1122 said:

I believe we are using a further upgraded version of the GFS vs last winter and it's doing miserably.

They are, and what is crazy the old GFS was on a good roll when they took it out of service. The upgrade has been like a fast ball pitcher with no control, from one pitch to the next it could be anywhere.

[Carvers Gap]

Ya’ll, it is one run of a deterministic.  It may trend towards worse...but swaying this way and that with each deterministic run is what is miserable.  Whew.  The overnight runs were decent, and it looked like a funeral in here when I woke up.  LOL.   It is not the end of the world if it doesn’t snow.  Lots of great things in life.  Keep your eyes on the horizon and not looking at each wave.  One thing I have learned over the years is to enjoy the tracking - good or bad.  Let’s not forget that we had a decent amount of cold during November/December.  Count your blessings.  One storm and most of us reach normal - that is all it takes.

[John1122]

2 minutes ago, Carvers Gap said:

Ya’ll, it is one run of a deterministic.  It may trend towards worse...but swaying this way and that with each deterministic run is what is miserable.  Whew.  The overnight runs were decent, and it looked like a funeral in here when I woke up.  LOL.   It is not the end of the world if it doesn’t snow.  Lots of great things in life.  Keep your eyes on the horizon and not looking at each wave.  One thing I have learned over the years is to enjoy the tracking - good or bad.  Let’s not forget that we had a decent amount of cold during November/December.  Count your blessings.  One storm and most of us reach normal - that is all it takes.

Did you see the 0z GFS? We didn't get below 38-42 degrees from 114 to 348 and it showed a -PNA/+NAO that was pretty locked in for 10 days in a row with the California pipeline back in place. The 06z was full bore winter. Just noting that it's bouncing around a lot.

[snowmaker]

I am not sweating the storm at all based on the GFS. I am just amazed at how bad the run to run consistency has been with the GFS. I think most realize it’s just one deterministic run but the lack of consistency in the gfs is noted. 

[Carvers Gap]

There is much to enjoy about following the weather.  I just think getting bummed over one run is getting sucked into the vacuum that other forums have dealt with.  I used to be swayed like that.  However, this is a great hobby, and I have learned to enjoy hunting storms.  Maybe it is because I used to fish a lot or I am getting older and know my days are numbered(no, I am not dying...LOL)....some days are great and some aren't.  But getting out there on the water is always good.  Opening up new model suites is generally enjoyable for me.   It is akin to hunting for Easter eggs in a video game for me.  Plus, I just enjoy the maps and graphs. Enough analogies.  For me the best thing about this winter was standing w/ the local HS band as they were waiting to go into Lucas Oil Field for their national semis run.  It was unexpected, and awesome.  I never saw it coming on modeling.  Sometimes the unexpected things are the best.

...just reminding everyone to enjoy a great hobby and the truly great fellowship of this forum.   In about 4-6 weeks, many will head back into hibernation until next season.   

[Daniel Boone]

GooFuS is just that... GooFuS. 

[Met1985]

The gfs Ensembles don't agree with the operation at all. I completely understand the frustration but the Ensembles really haven't changed that much the past several runs.  Cold works in her around the 2nd through the 9th but things may teter back and fourth a bit. Take a deep breath and enjoy life.

[snowmaker]

12 minutes ago, Met1985 said:

The gfs Ensembles don't agree with the operation at all. I completely understand the frustration but the Ensembles really haven't changed that much the past several runs.  Cold works in her around the 2nd through the 9th but things may teter back and fourth a bit. Take a deep breath and enjoy life.

And that is the main thing no doubt. The ensembles carry a ton more weight than a individual control run.  Especially at this range out at 6-8 days.

[Silas Lang]

2 hours ago, Carvers Gap said:

There is much to enjoy about following the weather.  I just think getting bummed over one run is getting sucked into the vacuum that other forums have dealt with.  I used to be swayed like that.  However, this is a great hobby, and I have learned to enjoy hunting storms.  Maybe it is because I used to fish a lot or I am getting older and know my days are numbered(no, I am not dying...LOL)....some days are great and some aren't.  But getting out there on the water is always good.  Opening up new model suites is generally enjoyable for me.   It is akin to hunting for Easter eggs in a video game for me.  Plus, I just enjoy the maps and graphs. Enough analogies.  For me the best thing about this winter was standing w/ the local HS band as they were waiting to go into Lucas Oil Field for their national semis run.  It was unexpected, and awesome.  I never saw it coming on modeling.  Sometimes the unexpected things are the best.

...just reminding everyone to enjoy a great hobby and the truly great fellowship of this forum.   In about 4-6 weeks, many will head back into hibernation until next season.   

I hear you. The chase is part of the fun! I think it also helps to have realistic expectations. We average about 6 inches of snow a year here. Sometimes that means we get it all in one dump (Christmas a couple of years ago), get a few small events, or even nothing one year and 12 inches the next. At least I live in a place where I get to see some snow falling every year, even it it's just flurries or a snow shower. Some places don't even get that. 

I think people that are the most miserable with this hobby are those who expect a massive snowstorm every year, are never satisfied with snow amounts, etc. I just want to be like "you live in the south east, stop complaining, and enjoy what you have!" And on the topic of unexpected, what about that Vols football team this year? Simply magical. Never been more invested than when I was a teen in the golden era.

But, yeah this place is great! I really enjoy your posts and all the others that can explain things that I can't. This forum is my free entertainment during the winter.

[snowmaker]

Can’t wait to see what that Canadian run produced. That 31st-2nd Period looked like a nasty looking winter storm for Tennessee on this run. 0z gfs is a colder run through the 2nd but most frozen looks to be in Kentucky most of the duration. But it did trend colder in that timeframe but warms up quite a bit as the run goes. It will be interesting to see the ensembles of all modeling tomorrow.

[matt9697]

4 hours ago, snowmaker said:

Can’t wait to see what that Canadian run produced. That 31st-2nd Period looked like a nasty looking winter storm for Tennessee on this run. 0z gfs is a colder run through the 2nd but most frozen looks to be in Kentucky most of the duration. But it did trend colder in that timeframe but warms up quite a bit as the run goes. It will be interesting to see the ensembles of all modeling tomorrow.

Produced a 1994 esq ice storm not good if you enjoy electricity.

[Carvers Gap]

0z CMC is icy for middle and west TN.  The 0z Euro and 6z GFS both turn into decent snow storms for KY.  The Euro plaster the MA.  Main message is ice, and lots of it.  There is still a ton of flux w/ the boundary.  The 6z GFS was substantially colder than its 0z run, evidently "finding" the cold it air it lost at 18z.

[Carvers Gap]

The GFS is nearly 30-40 degrees colder than its 0z run for the 4th.  That tells me there is much still to work out.  The trend on across deterministic runs overnight is to move the boundary southward.  

[matt9697]

Good discussion on the long range from the Nashville NWS - have they been trolling the weather forum? Sounds like what we have been discussing 

 

LONG TERM...
(Friday Night through next Thursday)
Issued at 225 AM CST Thu Jan 26 2023

Our extremely active weather pattern will go into full throttle
over the weekend into next week as upper level winds become
southwesterly and an Arctic cold front stalls across the region
on Monday. Prior to then, another wave of low pressure is
forecast to develop across Texas on Saturday then race eastward
along the Gulf Coast into Sunday. After a mild and dry day on
Saturday with lows in the 30s and highs in the 50s, rain will
return to the midstate and continue most of Sunday before ending
Sunday night. Although this system will be weaker than the one we
saw yesterday, the longer duration of rain should allow most
locations to receive a half inch to an inch of rain.

A forecast nightmare begins Monday and continues the rest of next
week as an Arctic cold front moves across Middle Tennessee and
stalls. Front then looks to waffle back and forth near us for
many days as numerous shortwaves pass overhead. Models are not
surprisingly really struggling with this pattern and exactly
where the front will end up day to day, with each model run
showing drastic changes from the previous one. However, overall
this looks to be a very wet pattern for us with several inches of
rain possible. In addition, if the front pushes far enough to the
south of the midstate, colder air filtering in from the north
could lead to a wintry mix of rain, freezing rain, or snow -
especially across our northwest counties. Latest NBM keeps us
mild enough for just rain until Wednesday and Thursday when
freezing rain and snow probabilities increase in our northwest.
Due to the unusually high uncertainty in the extended forecast,
have kept temperatures, precip chances, and precip types near the
NBM, but it should be noted the forecast confidence next week is
very low.

&&

[Carvers Gap]

26 minutes ago, matt9697 said:

Good discussion on the long range from the Nashville NWS - have they been trolling the weather forum? Sounds like what we have been discussing 

 

LONG TERM...
(Friday Night through next Thursday)
Issued at 225 AM CST Thu Jan 26 2023

Our extremely active weather pattern will go into full throttle
over the weekend into next week as upper level winds become
southwesterly and an Arctic cold front stalls across the region
on Monday. Prior to then, another wave of low pressure is
forecast to develop across Texas on Saturday then race eastward
along the Gulf Coast into Sunday. After a mild and dry day on
Saturday with lows in the 30s and highs in the 50s, rain will
return to the midstate and continue most of Sunday before ending
Sunday night. Although this system will be weaker than the one we
saw yesterday, the longer duration of rain should allow most
locations to receive a half inch to an inch of rain.

A forecast nightmare begins Monday and continues the rest of next
week as an Arctic cold front moves across Middle Tennessee and
stalls. Front then looks to waffle back and forth near us for
many days as numerous shortwaves pass overhead. Models are not
surprisingly really struggling with this pattern and exactly
where the front will end up day to day, with each model run
showing drastic changes from the previous one. However, overall
this looks to be a very wet pattern for us with several inches of
rain possible. In addition, if the front pushes far enough to the
south of the midstate, colder air filtering in from the north
could lead to a wintry mix of rain, freezing rain, or snow -
especially across our northwest counties. Latest NBM keeps us
mild enough for just rain until Wednesday and Thursday when
freezing rain and snow probabilities increase in our northwest.
Due to the unusually high uncertainty in the extended forecast,
have kept temperatures, precip chances, and precip types near the
NBM, but it should be noted the forecast confidence next week is
very low.

&&

I suspect we have at least one NWS poster on our forum.  They are an excellent poster.  And that is a great catch.  I think that shows that what we talk about here isn't sunshine pumping or the like.  That window is a legit window for winter weather.  Where is the question?  Nina winters often favor middle and west TN, and this potential overrunning event signal favors those areas, though I wouldn't rule out E TN by any means .  Those crappy decades of winters Nashville had prior to this recent good run....chocked full of Nino winters from the early 90s onward.   During the last decade, we have seen more Nina winters.  Another good trend during the past couple of winters is the return of the -NAO.  That helps.  We have seen what January looks like w/out Atlantic blocking.  Many Kocin storms have -NAOs as part of the equation.

All of that said, the trend overnight was to bring that frozen boundary from the Ohio River into Central KY.  In some cases, the heaviest bands were brought completely to the KY/TN border, including SW Virginia.  The Euro ended w/ an extensive Miller B hybrid.  So great find and great disco by Nashville.  I agree with all of that.  We really want to see an aggressive trend southward so that the boundary gets south of us...so that the inevitable northward jog will still leave us w/ frozen precip.  I am 50/50 on whether modeling is just sensing the cold, and pushes that boundary further southward.

The GFS is less aggressive(though 6z trended significantly colder) w/ the boundary pressing southward.  The 0z CMC would bring most of TN into the mix north of I-40 in terms of ice.  The 0z Euro is in between the two, and is a nice compromise for now.  There is still plenty of time for this to move around(roughly 48 hours before this begins to lock in).  The Euro late in the run has me intrigued as it has had a real tendency to trend west with storms(think inland runner which trended to Illinois).  I think we want any storm on that model on the coast or just off the coast...at this range.  

[matt9697]

33 minutes ago, Carvers Gap said:

I suspect we have at least one NWS poster on our forum.  They are an excellent poster.  And that is a great catch.  I think that shows that what we talk about here isn't sunshine pumping or the like.  That window is a legit window for winter weather.  Where is the question?  Nina winters often favor middle and west TN, and this potential overrunning event signal favors those areas, though I wouldn't rule out E TN by any means .  Those crappy decades of winters Nashville had prior to this recent good run....chocked full of Nino winters from the early 90s onward.   During the last decade, we have seen more Nina winters.  Another good trend during the past couple of winters is the return of the -NAO.  That helps.  We have seen what January looks like w/out Atlantic blocking.  Many Kocin storms have -NAOs as part of the equation.

All of that said, the trend overnight was to bring that frozen boundary from the Ohio River into Central KY.  In some cases, the heaviest bands were brought completely to the KY/TN border, including SW Virginia.  The Euro ended w/ an extensive Miller B hybrid.  So great find and great disco by Nashville.  I agree with all of that.  We really want to see an aggressive trend southward so that the boundary gets south of us...so that the inevitable northward jog will still leave us w/ frozen precip.  I am 50/50 on whether modeling is just sensing the cold, and pushes that boundary further southward.

The GFS is less aggressive(though 6z trended significantly colder) w/ the boundary pressing southward.  The 0z CMC would bring most of TN into the mix north of I-40 in terms of ice.  The 0z Euro is in between the two, and is a nice compromise for now.  There is still plenty of time for this to move around(roughly 48 hours before this begins to lock in).  The Euro late in the run has me intrigued as it has had a real tendency to trend west with storms(think inland runner which trended to Illinois).  I think we want any storm on that model on the coast or just off the coast...at this range.  

I have said it before but will say it again, do not wish ice on anyone anyplace! But the pattern next weeks looks just like what I recall from 1994. In addition, I would not want to be in the shoes of the NWS or local forecasters going into next week, just going to be a tough tough call likely two with a day or two of the event unfolding as to what to expect, where, and how much 

[Daniel Boone]

The Ohio Valley is really going to cash in before this Winter is over by the looks of things. Kentucky may be the big Winner next week within our area.

     Kentucky was the jackpot during the January '94 ice/Snowstorm. Northern KY reported 2 feet of Snow. SE KY reported 10" in Harlan. Most of the State received over a foot !