Daniel Boone Posted January 25, 2023 Share Posted January 25, 2023 8 hours ago, John1122 said: The Ozarks are set to become the Sierra's of the East it looks like. Yeah definitely, northern Ark and Southern Mo is the place to be . Too bad everything is not 200 to 300 miles further east. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Carvers Gap Posted January 25, 2023 Author Share Posted January 25, 2023 Not sure where the 12z GFS goes after 180, but a HP in the Plains/Midwest which is sitting over the top of a low in TX is not a bad setup. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Carvers Gap Posted January 25, 2023 Author Share Posted January 25, 2023 Looks like an incoming storm at 186. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Carvers Gap Posted January 25, 2023 Author Share Posted January 25, 2023 Indeed, at 189 light wintry precip is breaking out across the forum area. Let's see where this goes. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Carvers Gap Posted January 25, 2023 Author Share Posted January 25, 2023 Yeah, that looks like big winter storm on that run - ice, snow, sleet, overrunning. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Icy Hot Posted January 25, 2023 Share Posted January 25, 2023 Just now, Carvers Gap said: Yeah, that looks like big winter storm on that run - ice, snow, sleet, overrunning. If only it wasn't 8 days away on models. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Carvers Gap Posted January 25, 2023 Author Share Posted January 25, 2023 That would be a terrible ice storm for SW TN, northern MS, NE Arkansas, etc. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Carvers Gap Posted January 25, 2023 Author Share Posted January 25, 2023 Just now, Icy Hot said: If only it wasn't 8 days away on models. And that is why we say this thread is for speculation. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Carvers Gap Posted January 25, 2023 Author Share Posted January 25, 2023 The 12z CMC has nearly an identical setup. Again, we all know this is seven days out on the CMC(not eight), and it is the only game in town. Most of us are here during winter to track winter storms. It sure beats tracking mid 70s(and that is on the horizon BTW). This signal has shown up repeatedly on modeling for days to various extents. Does it verify? Who knows, but that is as good a signal as we have had this winter. Could it be a mirage? Sure. But we can certainly enjoy tracking a potential weather event without the caveats. We all should know them by now. It is rare that we all get winter at the same time. So, if this goes to middle and west TN, I celebrate for them(though I definitely pull for snow IMBY). 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowmaker Posted January 25, 2023 Share Posted January 25, 2023 I agree models have hitting on this timeframe. Just exactly where the boundary will be is the key. The 1st-3rd timeframe is for sure one to watch as it is in the 7-8 day range. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Carvers Gap Posted January 25, 2023 Author Share Posted January 25, 2023 The GFS and CMC diverge drastically after d7. The 12z GFS sends the boundary to the Ohio River Valley after plentiful snow and ice across the mid and upper south. The CMC actually depresses the boundary further and ends w/ ice in Atlanta. Very cold air is incredibly difficult for modeling to account for. Often it sits below 500mb, and creeps further than modeling depicts, and the CMC is a good example of that scenario. The SER is also a wild card and the GFS is a good example of that. 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Carvers Gap Posted January 25, 2023 Author Share Posted January 25, 2023 1 minute ago, snowmaker said: I agree models have hitting on this timeframe. Just exactly where the boundary will be is the key. The 1st-3rd timeframe is for sure one to watch as it is in the 7-8 day range. And ALL of it could go to the Ohio River valley. That is plausible. However, December is a great example of how it can go the other way - cold and dry. I like the active STJ and cold. That is a good combination for frozen precip in the Upper South, and even Mid-South. Plenty can and will change, but it is worth tracking. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Matthew70 Posted January 25, 2023 Share Posted January 25, 2023 Well, let’s also remember this weeks Storm was showing up on models consistently at 7 to 8 days out for the I44 area. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Carvers Gap Posted January 25, 2023 Author Share Posted January 25, 2023 This is from the 12z GFS and CMC. Could it change? Yes, and probably will. 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Carvers Gap Posted January 25, 2023 Author Share Posted January 25, 2023 11 minutes ago, Matthew70 said: Well, let’s also remember this weeks Storm was showing up on models consistently at 7 to 8 days out for the I44 area. Indeed, I have doing this a long time, and have seen many do exactly that(bust at this range). Busts at this latitude are plentiful regarding frozen precip. And the -30F wind chill event was modeled well at 7-8 days out. I have said this many times, if you want to be right 95% of the time during winter....call for rain at this latitude. Chasing snow is risky. 5 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Silas Lang Posted January 25, 2023 Share Posted January 25, 2023 38 minutes ago, Carvers Gap said: And ALL of it could go to the Ohio River valley. That is plausible. However, December is a great example of how it can go the other way - cold and dry. I like the active STJ and cold. That is a good combination for frozen precip in the Upper South, and even Mid-South. Plenty can and will change, but it is worth tracking. Agree 100%. I am feeling pretty confident that some overrunning will occur. But it could still go anywhere at this point. Really depends on the cold push. I don't think it will miss us south. More likely north. The cold could get hung up on the plateau like the last time we had one of these events. Middle and West TN scored big while it rained here in the East for days. When was that? 2021? 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowmaker Posted January 25, 2023 Share Posted January 25, 2023 No doubt you can’t take every control run to heart at 7-10 days out. I look for when models kind of latch on to the same general idea. Hopefully in the next 2-3 days we will start seeing models latch on to where this arctic boundary will set up. Looking at ensembles for that time frame is the key right now for better guidance. Like Carver was saying the boundary could be anywhere from the Ohio River to the Plateau or through central Mississippi and over the mountains. Time will tell. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Carvers Gap Posted January 25, 2023 Author Share Posted January 25, 2023 6 minutes ago, Silas Lang said: Agree 100%. I am feeling pretty confident that some overrunning will occur. But it could still go anywhere at this point. Really depends on the cold push. I don't think it will miss us south. More likely north. The cold could get hung up on the plateau like the last time we had one of these events. Middle and West TN scored big while it rained here in the East for days. When was that? 2021? Yeah, at this range deterministic runs will have a lot of variation. But the signal is what I am looking for. I am just looking for some consistency across modeling that we are in the game, and we are at this point. I also know, that can change in a heartbeat. I once watched 2-4'(feet is right!) modeled for Upstate South Carolina, and it busted badly even during the storm. So, we know the drill. LOL. On a serious note, that amount of freezing rain could be a huge problem, especially w/ the cold which follows on the CMC. Not quite sure I want to reel that one in...... 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Silas Lang Posted January 25, 2023 Share Posted January 25, 2023 5 minutes ago, Carvers Gap said: Yeah, at this range deterministic runs will have a lot of variation. But the signal is what I am looking for. I am just looking for some consistency across modeling that we are in the game, and we are at this point. I also know, that can change in a heartbeat. I once watched 2-4'(feet is right!) modeled for Upstate South Carolina, and it busted badly even during the storm. So, we know the drill. LOL. On a serious note, that amount of freezing rain could be a huge problem, especially w/ the cold which follows on the CMC. Not quite sure I want to reel that one in...... Good lord. What event was that? You hope people understand enough to factor in some climo when looking at snow maps. I don't even know if SC has ever had that much snow in their history. If that was showing on models for the valley, I would give it some serious side eye. 6 to 8 inches is usually the upper end on big events around here, with something like a foot or more being a once in a lifetime storm (like 93). Anyways, I am a sicko and want to reel this one in. Even after having burst pipes from the last cold spell. I can't help myself. Some men just want to watch the world bu...er umm freeze. Let's see what the Euro brings! 5 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Carvers Gap Posted January 25, 2023 Author Share Posted January 25, 2023 7 minutes ago, Silas Lang said: Good lord. What event was that? You hope people understand enough to factor in some climo when looking at snow maps. I don't even know if SC has ever had that much snow in their history. If that was showing on models for the valley, I would give it some serious side eye. 6 to 8 inches is usually the upper end on big events around here, with something like a foot or more being a once in a lifetime storm (like 93). Anyways, I am a sicko and want to reel this one in. Even after having burst pipes from the last cold spell. I can't help myself. Some men just want to watch the world bu...er umm freeze. Let's see what the Euro brings! I will have to go look in the SE forum. I have an old friend who works for ESPN, and we had been discussing the big storm for Charlotte. It definitely looked like model feedback, but if I remember correctly, most modeling had crazy amounts. He was HOT when that one busted. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Silas Lang Posted January 25, 2023 Share Posted January 25, 2023 Looking at the Euro, it looks like the cold air is pushing a little more south an east, by about 50 to 100 miles compared to the 00z last night. This is regarding the potential overrunning next week. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Silas Lang Posted January 25, 2023 Share Posted January 25, 2023 Finally got to see the Euro. System next week looks a little flatter. However, snow over the entire state. Roughly only an inch average with the winner being middle TN and northern plateau with 2 to 3. Much less ice. Last night's run only had snow in the northwest part of the state. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Carvers Gap Posted January 25, 2023 Author Share Posted January 25, 2023 Euro control. This begins around 198.... 3 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Carvers Gap Posted January 25, 2023 Author Share Posted January 25, 2023 So what is the difference between the control and deterministic runs?......The storms which are bigger appear to hold the energy back long enough for the cold to drive into the forum area. When they precip is quicker, it is more cold chasing rain. When that energy holds back, it gets nasty. It may also be that the cold front is stronger. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
matt9697 Posted January 25, 2023 Share Posted January 25, 2023 2 minutes ago, Carvers Gap said: So what is the difference between the control and deterministic runs?......The storms which are bigger appear to hold the energy back long enough for the cold to drive into the forum area. When they precip is quicker, it is more cold chasing rain. When that energy holds back, it gets nasty. It may also be that the cold front is stronger. So we are still looking at general trends here, none of this set in stone until at least early next week Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
fountainguy97 Posted January 25, 2023 Share Posted January 25, 2023 5 minutes ago, matt9697 said: So we are still looking at general trends here, none of this set in stone until at least early next week Yeah I've been reluctant to bite for much long range chatter this winter but the 12z GEFS has a decent cluster of similar solutions. creeping inside 200hrs. Looks like this is a legit storm signal. Probably for points North and west of the vast majority of TN. we can be cautiously hopeful with this GEFS mean. Emphasis on cautious lol 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Carvers Gap Posted January 25, 2023 Author Share Posted January 25, 2023 10 minutes ago, matt9697 said: So we are still looking at general trends here, none of this set in stone until at least early next week I don't even know about trends at this point. I am just looking to see where the general track cone is, and that the storm signal is still there. I would think by Saturday, we will have a very good idea of where this is headed. I, and some others, follow a general rule that we have to get a threat inside 150 hours to really track it. Models are decently good enough now that sometimes we can track out to day7-9, but that has its pitfalls as we have all seen. This is tricky business where very cold air is trying to undercut a weak HP at 500mb. The axis is shifting hundreds of miles right now due to projections of the SER, the strength of the cold air, and number of short waves which drive the boundary. Pretty big cone right now. That cone decreases with each run. Kind of like March Madness, we want to survive and advance. For much of January, we have been in the NIT. This is a legit pattern right now, so we just want to stay in the game with each passing model suite until this narrows the cone. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
matt9697 Posted January 25, 2023 Share Posted January 25, 2023 10 minutes ago, Carvers Gap said: I don't even know about trends at this point. I am just looking to see where the general track cone is, and that the storm signal is still there. I would think by Saturday, we will have a very good idea of where this is headed. I, and some others, follow a general rule that we have to get a threat inside 150 hours to really track it. Models are decently good enough now that sometimes we can track out to day7-9, but that has its pitfalls as we have all seen. This is tricky business where very cold air is trying to undercut a weak HP at 500mb. The axis is shifting hundreds of miles right now due to projections of the SER, the strength of the cold air, and number of short waves which drive the boundary. Pretty big cone right now. That cone decreases with each run. Kind of like March Madness, we want to survive and advance. For much of January, we have been in the NIT. This is a legit pattern right now, so we just want to stay in the game with each passing model suite until this narrows the cone. Yea, there are so many players that make up any one storm it is amazing 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Carvers Gap Posted January 25, 2023 Author Share Posted January 25, 2023 5 minutes ago, matt9697 said: Yea, there are so many players that make up any one storm it is amazing Especially at our latitude. It is like trying to get it to rain at 7000’ in Wyoming during the middle of winter. It can, but it really doesn’t want to..... 6 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Carvers Gap Posted January 25, 2023 Author Share Posted January 25, 2023 18z GFS is flatter after 150. No idea what that leads to, but it suppressed the two leading waves. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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