Holston_River_Rambler Posted February 22, 2023 Share Posted February 22, 2023 If anyone wants to torture themselves in middle TN, take a look at the 12z GFS snowfall around hour 250. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Carvers Gap Posted February 22, 2023 Author Share Posted February 22, 2023 1 hour ago, Holston_River_Rambler said: If anyone wants to torture themselves in middle TN, take a look at the 12z GFS snowfall around hour 250. 12z CMC isn't far from it. Trackable window weeks 2-4 of March it appears from a distance. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowmaker Posted February 22, 2023 Share Posted February 22, 2023 12 minutes ago, Carvers Gap said: 12z CMC isn't far from it. Trackable window weeks 2-4 of March it appears from a distance. What happened with the 5th-10th window? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Carvers Gap Posted February 22, 2023 Author Share Posted February 22, 2023 Rare winter storm warnings for the Southern Oregon Coast and Northern California Coast! Coos Bay and Port Orford are under WSWs. Blizzard warnings are also up in the mountains immediately outside of Los Angeles. RARE but not unprecedented. I don't remember seeing blizzard warnings in the mountains above LA. Take a look at the advisor map for California. I have not changes to my thoughts this point about weeks 2-4 of March. The block looks real. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PowellVolz Posted February 22, 2023 Share Posted February 22, 2023 What happened with the 5th-10th window?Someone closed the blinds. . 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Carvers Gap Posted February 22, 2023 Author Share Posted February 22, 2023 13 minutes ago, snowmaker said: What happened with the 5th-10th window? Still there on the 12z GFS and CMC. May have even moved up a bit. I just don't talk much about it as details will be sparse at this range. I usually will set a window, but won't talk specifics until around d7 if it materializes. The 12z suite so far show some potential, but that is a LONG way out there. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Carvers Gap Posted February 22, 2023 Author Share Posted February 22, 2023 4 minutes ago, snowmaker said: What happened with the 5th-10th window? Both the 12z CMC and 12z GFS looked decent for middle TN on March 4th - Holston mentioned it. At the 10 day range, that is about all I would comment on it. Likely will be different next run. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Carvers Gap Posted February 22, 2023 Author Share Posted February 22, 2023 16 hours ago, Itryatgolf70 said: A guy at another forum said all teleconnections are going negative, which he said is very rare. If we do get cold, I hope there is precipitation with it. Imo, to have two monster -nao and no cold air from it is pretty unusual if it indeed happens like that Yeah, teleconnections are nasty for the last 20 days of March. I still want to see if they verify. Lots of mirages of late have not transpired. But that is one chilly pattern lurking if it does. I see three scenarios right now: 1. -NAO stays over Davis Straits, and it gets cold here. 2. The -NAO shifts to the Hudson Bay, and the EPO ridge pops - very cold and stormy here. 3. The -NA) shifts to the Hudson Bay an the EPO ridge stays off shore just enough to send the cold into the nation's mid-section and front range of Rockies....different set-up to today's weather but same outcome(warm east). Right now I strongly favor options 1-2. Nino is gonna have to win-out for that to occur. If options 1-2 occur, the storm track will be vastly different than the past three months with lots of systems to our south. We will see. This look is kind of a long, last gasp of winter. 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowmaker Posted February 22, 2023 Share Posted February 22, 2023 3 hours ago, Carvers Gap said: Both the 12z CMC and 12z GFS looked decent for middle TN on March 4th - Holston mentioned it. At the 10 day range, that is about all I would comment on it. Likely will be different next run. I have no doubt on it being different. Just thought the early March possibilities may have already disappeared. Haven’t been keeping up daily as I am preparing for mowing season. If things are out in 10-12 day land In another 8-10 days my white towel may get thrown into the ring. I have already accepted this winter is likely pretty much over but still hold out hope for one good quick hitter anyway. But I will always take a good snowstorm inside the first 10-12 days of March. But at this point I don’t want any vodka cold that shunts growing season. If it’s going to do something I hope it happens by mid March or good riddance to 22-23 winter. But now if March wanted to end in a series of grand winter events that is fine with me. It could even be a grade changer if that happened. I guess time will tell, there is still time. But we are approaching mid 4th quarter and we need a TD bad and we are pretty deep in our own territory. But March can be full of surprises. I just hope something is well within 10 days by the 1st of March or sooner. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Holston_River_Rambler Posted February 22, 2023 Share Posted February 22, 2023 One thing I'll say about this day 8 - 10 storm on the GFS, is that the -NAO is in full swing by that time. We have seen storms trend south with time when that is present. And yeah, before someone says it, it is late in the season, lots could go wrong, and it is 10 days out on the GFS. 3 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Carvers Gap Posted February 23, 2023 Author Share Posted February 23, 2023 Man, the winter storm along coastal areas of southern Oregon and Northern California is going to threaten records of all sorts - snow, record lows, etc. Go read the AFD for Port Orford, Oregon. It is crazy what is going on. Seeing Southern California w blizzard warnings (foothills of LA) is mind bending. What a crazy, crazy, crazy look when you look at all of the WSWs and WWAs posted in some not so normal places in California. Amazing stuff. Don't miss it. You won't get to see that often on a wx map. BTW, the record highs we either threatened or breached today were from 2018....take a look at March of 2018. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Carvers Gap Posted February 23, 2023 Author Share Posted February 23, 2023 4 hours ago, snowmaker said: I have no doubt on it being different. Just thought the early March possibilities may have already disappeared. Haven’t been keeping up daily as I am preparing for mowing season. If things are out in 10-12 day land In another 8-10 days my white towel may get thrown into the ring. I have already accepted this winter is likely pretty much over but still hold out hope for one good quick hitter anyway. But I will always take a good snowstorm inside the first 10-12 days of March. But at this point I don’t want any vodka cold that shunts growing season. If it’s going to do something I hope it happens by mid March or good riddance to 22-23 winter. But now if March wanted to end in a series of grand winter events that is fine with me. It could even be a grade changer if that happened. I guess time will tell, there is still time. But we are approaching mid 4th quarter and we need a TD bad and we are pretty deep in our own territory. But March can be full of surprises. I just hope something is well within 10 days by the 1st of March or sooner. Well, March 5th is 13 days out right now...so we have a ways to go. The LR continues to look pretty much awful(cold) for a lot of March. For kids in spring baseball, soccer, and track...that forecast pretty much is the pits. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Carvers Gap Posted February 23, 2023 Author Share Posted February 23, 2023 Right now I am trying to find a "warmest model" for March....and I am having trouble finding one. The GEFSext and CFSv2 are cold. They may not be snow cold. But they are certainly loaded with cold rain and likely elevation snows. When I see the map in California, that tells me that one good amplification can send cold into areas where it usually isn't at this time of year. Cali is the ying to our yang. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Met1985 Posted February 23, 2023 Share Posted February 23, 2023 19 minutes ago, Carvers Gap said: Man, the winter storm along coastal areas of southern Oregon and Northern California is going to threaten records of all sorts - snow, record lows, etc. Go read the AFD for Port Orford, Oregon. It is crazy what is going on. Seeing Southern California w blizzard warnings (foothills of LA) is mind bending. What a crazy, crazy, crazy look when you look at all of the WSWs and WWAs posted in some not so normal places in California. Amazing stuff. Don't miss it. You won't get to see that often on a wx map. BTW, the record highs we either threatened or breached today were from 2018....take a look at March of 2018. Yeah I read an afd for southern California that had them receiving 32 to 73 inches of snow with 80mph winds.... Absolutely insane. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Carvers Gap Posted February 23, 2023 Author Share Posted February 23, 2023 If someone want to start a March, April, May spring thread....go for it. Preliminarily here is my forecast for spring Temps: March: normal to BN April: BN May: BN Precip: AN all months Snow: Potential for multiple heavy snows in the Apps. Crapshoot int they valleys but not a zero chance deal. Could be rough for people through-hiking the Appalachian Trail. Note: I will give models another week before finalizing this. 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Carvers Gap Posted February 23, 2023 Author Share Posted February 23, 2023 Just now, Met1985 said: Yeah I read an afd for southern California that had them receiving 32 to 73 inches of snow with 80mph winds.... Absolutely insane. It is a rare event. Those types of wavelengths have my interest. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
1234snow Posted February 23, 2023 Share Posted February 23, 2023 It is a rare event. Those types of wavelengths have my interest. Snow is almost falling from Coast to coast (Oregon/Cali coast all the way the across the Rockies to the Midwest and to the northeast all the way to Massachusetts coast)if you look at radar. Certainly a configuration I don’t remember seeing. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Itryatgolf70 Posted February 23, 2023 Share Posted February 23, 2023 I guess the SSW isn't really going to get us cold. I was hoping it would but the west trough is going to ruin it imo. Our best chance is if the epo can go negative. Kinda a bad break to have the -nao with a west trough. Unless things get going in beg to mid March. I still feel the real cold will come when it's too late for most. 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Carvers Gap Posted February 23, 2023 Author Share Posted February 23, 2023 The 18z GEFS is textbook SSW. It is about 2-3 weeks after the main strat warming. I think (famous last words) the trough gets kicked eastward. Honestly, I am not a huge fan of cold springs...so I am not overly fired up about it! Cold springs equal bad early growing seasons for gardeners. I think we will see a short spell of the eastern ridge hooking into the trough, but eventually incredible amounts of HLB overwhelm the pattern. Still in the range where it could be a mirage, but this looks decently legit at this range............If true, major changes coming in our weather pattern. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Carvers Gap Posted February 23, 2023 Author Share Posted February 23, 2023 For kicks and giggles, the GEFS(ext) control run. Is it yet another mirage? Possibly given recent misses. Hopefully, we don't get all dressed up for nothin'...William Wallace 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Itryatgolf70 Posted February 23, 2023 Share Posted February 23, 2023 18 minutes ago, Carvers Gap said: For kicks and giggles, the GEFS(ext) control run. Is it yet another mirage? Possibly given recent misses. Hopefully, we don't get all dressed up for nothin'...William Wallace If we get a -epo combined with ao and nao, I will be more excited. I believe that could give us one last hoorah Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Met1985 Posted February 23, 2023 Share Posted February 23, 2023 1 hour ago, Itryatgolf70 said: I guess the SSW isn't really going to get us cold. I was hoping it would but the west trough is going to ruin it imo. Our best chance is if the epo can go negative. Kinda a bad break to have the -nao with a west trough. Unless things get going in beg to mid March. I still feel the real cold will come when it's too late for most. This is very premature to say. Not trying to bust your balls but you've really got to be patient with the whole northern hemisphere weather pattern changing. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Itryatgolf70 Posted February 23, 2023 Share Posted February 23, 2023 2 minutes ago, Met1985 said: This is very premature to say. Not trying to bust your balls but you've really got to be patient with the whole northern hemisphere weather pattern changing. Like I mentioned, the key is the epo and tropical forcing. All I'm saying is time we get a favorable pattern, most likely too late except higher elevations, but we shall see Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Holston_River_Rambler Posted February 23, 2023 Share Posted February 23, 2023 On 2/5/2023 at 6:55 AM, Holston_River_Rambler said: In terms of the next couple of weeks (not in reference to whatever happens next weekend) for you model junkies like me I think we're starting to see the long foretold Feb. SE ridge flex in modeling. I think we start to see some interesting looks show up again in LR OP runs around around the 20th. On 2/11/2023 at 7:06 AM, Holston_River_Rambler said: Looks to me like it is trying to make it fully into the western Pac in 7 - 10 days. I would almost be willing to say we have a shot at a storm in 20 - 25 days based on that progression, and how the pattern has been playing out since Fall, so March 3 - 8? How the literal fallout from the SPV lands could impact this progression constructively or destructively though IMO. WRT the early March window I had made the call for (above), I admit that I didn't anticipate the SSWE having this much of an impact on the window we've had every month since the Fall via MJO progression. It def. looks to me like it has transported coder than average temps to the tropopause of the tropics via the Brewer Dobson circulation and enhanced convection in less favorable areas. Did it even enhance TC Freddy in some way? But it does look to loop out of COD/ phase 7 as most of you can see from any recent MJO RMM maps people have been posting. We'll see, but I think adding 10 days to the dates I posted above wouldn't be too far off. And look, I'm not trying to salvage some BS call by throwing out some word soup, I really don't care that much at this point and am enjoying the muggy weather this AM, but I do kind of worry that we might get some sort of a late Dec pattern repeat in mid March. I'll take it as long as we don't destroy a bunch of trees and pipes. Maybe the shortened wavelengths and sun angle help this time? Maybe it doesn't apply anymore, but I remember the old folks saying that when we had this extreme warmth in winter, even late winter, we would "have to pay for it" later. To that end, and Carver's you may have mentioned it, is it March thread time since that is where we've mostly been looking now? 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Holston_River_Rambler Posted February 23, 2023 Share Posted February 23, 2023 6z GFS not too far off from a Miller A around hour 210: 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Holston_River_Rambler Posted February 23, 2023 Share Posted February 23, 2023 The pattern at the end of the 6z GFS looks (not exactly the same) but awfully familiar : 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Carvers Gap Posted February 23, 2023 Author Share Posted February 23, 2023 Good overnight discussion. Definitely tracking cold and/or winter wx at this latitude during spring is fraught with disappointment. So, know that before jumping in..... It wants to rain at this latitude for all but about 6-8 weeks per year, and March isn't one of those weeks. But, March has delivered some big snows on an irregular basis. I still want to see the LR window get inside of d10, and weeks 2-4 of March are not there yet. Either way, I am going to start mulching and getting the garden ready. Cold or not during March/April/May....spring is going to show up sooner than later. 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Carvers Gap Posted February 23, 2023 Author Share Posted February 23, 2023 Holston, definitely time for a March/April/May thread. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Holston_River_Rambler Posted February 23, 2023 Share Posted February 23, 2023 March thread is up and running. I can always edit it (at least I think I can) if it all ends up being a bust and just make it a general spring thread. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Carvers Gap Posted February 24, 2023 Author Share Posted February 24, 2023 If I remember correctly, Chattanooga broke its all time record high yesterday from 1879. In Casper, WY, they broke one from 1894. Some areas of WY are flirting w/ some old snow records. https://capcity.news/community/weather/2023/02/23/cheyenne-breaks-nearly-130-year-old-record-cold-temp-overnight/ 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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