February 2023 Medium/Long Range Pattern Discussion Thread.....Torch or Tundra???

[Carvers Gap]

While loading one of the band trucks tonight for a spring competition, it was snowing lightly and wind chills certainly felt like the low to mid 20s.  Whew - COLD!!!!!

[PowellVolz]

Earlier today it was 40ish degrees and coming a sleet blizzard. A 1/2 mile up it looked like you were driving into a dust storm.


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[Carvers Gap]

On the way out there level.....though the MJO is taking multiple solution paths on the CPC this morning, the roughly general consensus is that we should see another favorable window(other than the other windows mentioned) right around March 10th and thereafter.  That is seen on the Euro Weeklies pretty well.  IMHO, that will be the last window for the lower elevations below 2,000'.

[Carvers Gap]

Monster NAO showing up on the 12z operational GFS.  Major global ensembles have it at well.  Might be time to tighten that seat belt if legit.

[Carvers Gap]

I would say the odds of a late season, coastal winter storm are increasing.  That does NOT mean it is going to snow here.  But that NAO is a boomer.  It would highly likely suppress the storm track.  OTH, it also could hook into an eastern ridge - LOL!!!

[snowmaker]

I’m not throwing in the towel for a snow in my area. But the window is closing, the 10 day looks just haven’t materialized well at all this year. But we will see. I see nothing to be excited about pretty much all the way through February now. Maybe somebody across Tennessee will score, I would give East Tennessee the nod for best chances for a good event. But then again we are in Tennessee, where almost anything is possible if not probable.

[BNAwx]

I’m a March 15th kind of guy.  The 1st 15 days of March are similar to me as the 1st 15 days of December.  I’m not likely to get snow during either of those 15 days but I’m still hunting.  I’d have to do some digging but I’ve probably seen more snow between March 1st and March 15th than I have December 1st though 15th.

Anyway….I “for some odd reason” feel that I haven’t seen the last of Old Man Winter yet.

[Carvers Gap]

1 hour ago, snowmaker said:

I’m not throwing in the towel for a snow in my area. But the window is closing, the 10 day looks just haven’t materialized well at all this year. But we will see. I see nothing to be excited about pretty much all the way through February now. Maybe somebody across Tennessee will score, I would give East Tennessee the nod for best chances for a good event. But then again we are in Tennessee, where almost anything is possible if not probable.

Definitely have seen some good looks at d10+ not materialize.  For now, I like the combination of the MJO/SSW/possible -NAO. That has been the combination that has brought cold this winter.  But for sure, we want to see it inside of d10 before getting too invested IMO.  I think this is only my fourth post today....so I am pretty dialed back on this!  LOL.  I do like the ensemble looks today.

[*Flash*]

Just need one more legit storm to track. Granted, they've been far and few between. Still, the thought of a less than ideal/weak Nina winter producing a trio of events...I'd take that as a moral victory. 

[Holston_River_Rambler]

One thing that is interesting over the past few days (and I know I'll probably get some flak for the "can-kicking" nature of this post) is that the strat warming seems to have done what it did (in I think 2019). It may have caused some cooling over the tropical tropopause that has enhanced the MJO just as it was over the Maritime Continent.  The basic idea is that when there is a SSWE, the upper levels of the troposphere cool and enhance the MJO convection wherever it is at at time. 

Webb called it back in January:

We've had these loop-d-loop runs in previous Ninas, but not so much this year. Delayed but not denied watch needed? 

 

 

And besides, we have to hit a 80 a few times to get the trees budding out for that 1050 arctic high the second week of March lol. 

[Carvers Gap]

NAO is still a significant feature in LR modeling this morning.  Could it hook into the eastern ridge?  It could per the GEPS and GEFS. We have already seen precedent for that this winter.   Could it prolong winter per the EPS?  It could.  Or it could do both.  Stay tuned.

[Carvers Gap]

Looks to me that the winter will end the way that it started.  Potentially, the NAO will be partially hooked into an eastern ridge.  At times that set-up will wane, and the cold pushes eastward.  The PDO has been driving the bus for the past three winters.  Take a look at the new learning thread as a reference.  That is why the trough keeps dropping into the West.  It is like a magnet.  That "should" be less or completely reversed by this time next year.  The NAO setup is not yet sorted out.  

[matt9697]

25 minutes ago, Carvers Gap said:

Looks to me that the winter will end the way that it started.  Potentially, the NAO will be partially hooked into an eastern ridge.  At times that set-up will wane, and the cold pushes eastward.  The PDO has been driving the bus for the past three winters.  Take a look at the new learning thread as a reference.  That is why the trough keeps dropping into the West.  It is like a magnet.  That "should" be less or completely reversed by this time next year.  The NAO setup is not yet sorted out.  

We can hope that it is different. Roughly about what time during the Summer/Fall will we have a better handle on whether the PDO will be driving the bus for the fourth consecutive Winter?

[Holston_River_Rambler]

At one point this winter psu in the Mid Atlantic forum was saying that the PDO might not flip again until like the 2050s or something. 

 

[matt9697]

31 minutes ago, Holston_River_Rambler said:

At one point this winter psu in the Mid Atlantic forum was saying that the PDO might not flip again until like the 2050s or something. 

 

Sounds like a move west is warrented then.

[Daniel Boone]

44 minutes ago, Holston_River_Rambler said:

At one point this winter psu in the Mid Atlantic forum was saying that the PDO might not flip again until like the 2050s or something. 

 

Yeah, need some serious underwater Volcano activity in crucial areas of the Pacific. 

[Carvers Gap]

4 hours ago, Holston_River_Rambler said:

At one point this winter psu in the Mid Atlantic forum was saying that the PDO might not flip again until like the 2050s or something. 

 

Don't know that I agree w/ him on that.  The PDO cycle is connected w/ the Nino/Nina cycle.  The current PDO is coupled nicely with the current Nina. The cold water along the equator is coupled with the cold waters along the eastern Pacific Coast.  When it flips back to warm water along equatorial Pacific, it should flip to warmer along the eastern Pac Coast.  With more Nina's this past decade, the PDO has been predominantly in Nina phase.  Now, if he is saying we are in for 50 years of La Ninas, he is going to have to show his work on that.

[Carvers Gap]

3 hours ago, matt9697 said:

Sounds like a move west is warrented then.

If one looks at the drought/good water year cycles in the Mountain West....they cycle pretty regularly.  If they had great water years every year, there would rarely be a fire season.  

[Carvers Gap]

3 hours ago, matt9697 said:

Sounds like a move west is warrented then.

But 7000' is always preferable...LOL

[Holston_River_Rambler]

Yeah I figured (hoped) they called it the "decadal" oscillation instead of the "multi-decadal" oscillation for a reason. But it does look like it can be up to 20 - 30 years though. Although this source says it has been flipping more erratically lately:

https://sealevel.jpl.nasa.gov/data/el-nino-la-nina-watch-and-pdo/pacific-decadal-oscillation-pdo/#:~:text=The Pacific Decadal Oscillation (PDO,or a 'warm' phase.

 

The NOAA graph looks a little more optimistic than the 20 - 30 years suggested above:

https://www.ncei.noaa.gov/access/monitoring/pdo/

[Holston_River_Rambler]

Euro OP looks like it has the strong -ve NAO at the end of its run too. Like Carver's said, we probably end as we began. That NAO retrograded so far so as to trigger an -ve EPO and that is what kicked the arctic loose in late Dec. Will that be how it plays out again? 

[Carvers Gap]

1 hour ago, Holston_River_Rambler said:

Euro OP looks like it has the strong -ve NAO at the end of its run too. Like Carver's said, we probably end as we began. That NAO retrograded so far so as to trigger an -ve EPO and that is what kicked the arctic loose in late Dec. Will that be how it plays out again? 

Weeklies say, "Yes," to all of what you just said.  Very, very cold run.

[Itryatgolf70]

38 minutes ago, Carvers Gap said:

Weeklies say, "Yes," to all of what you just said.  Very, very cold run.

My concern is by the time a colder pattern kicks in, will be too late for most outside higher elevations. We expect it to be warm in la niña in the south with occasional unreal cold episodes 

[Carvers Gap]

1 hour ago, Itryatgolf70 said:

My concern is by the time a colder pattern kicks in, will be too late for most outside higher elevations. We expect it to be warm in la niña in the south with occasional unreal cold episodes 

I think we are seeing the impact of El Nino slowly beginning to take over.  Honestly, I will be interested to see if the pattern actually comes to fruition.   However, this looks a lot like the December cold outbreak 2.0(light).  I agree w/ BNA who mentioned that March is similar to December in terms of snow expectations.  After about March 20th, it is very difficult to get snow in the valley.  Pretty much all storms would have to arrive at night.  I would think heavy mountain snows are likely IF the Weeklies are true.  The pattern verbatim is a Pisgah special.

[Carvers Gap]

An interesting thing is a westward moving cyclone heading across Madagascar into Africa.  That should light-up phase plots 1-2 on the MJO, and that might be what LR models are keying upon.   Cosgrove mentioned the storm, and I am extrapolating out from that.  However, it may be a bit too far south to impact MJO phases as those are more equatorial-centric.

[Carvers Gap]

Really enjoying the next 7-10 days of weather...cause what is coming after that is possibly not going to resemble spring.  Models at 12z are finally catching-on to a monster NAO that is going to do its very best to dislodge part or all of the trough in the West.  That may have zero to do with snow, but it could have a lot to do with a very cold pattern setting up between March 5-10th and may have some duration if the Weeklies and CFSv2 and MJO plots are correct.  

[matt9697]

1 hour ago, Carvers Gap said:

Really enjoying the next 7-10 days of weather...cause what is coming after that is possibly not going to resemble spring.  Models at 12z are finally catching-on to a monster NAO that is going to do its very best to dislodge part or all of the trough in the West.  That may have zero to do with snow, but it could have a lot to do with a very cold pattern setting up between March 5-10th and may have some duration if the Weeklies and CFSv2 and MJO plots are correct.  

Great, everything should be budded out nicely by then lol 

[BNAwx]

It hasn’t snowed on the daffodils yet so there’s that….

[Itryatgolf70]

5 hours ago, Carvers Gap said:

Really enjoying the next 7-10 days of weather...cause what is coming after that is possibly not going to resemble spring.  Models at 12z are finally catching-on to a monster NAO that is going to do its very best to dislodge part or all of the trough in the West.  That may have zero to do with snow, but it could have a lot to do with a very cold pattern setting up between March 5-10th and may have some duration if the Weeklies and CFSv2 and MJO plots are correct.  

A guy at another forum said all teleconnections are going negative, which he said is very rare. If we do get cold, I hope there is precipitation with it. Imo, to have two monster -nao and no cold air from it is pretty unusual if it indeed happens like that

[Daniel Boone]

Truckee Ca getting slammed again.

MtHardware (tahoeweathercam.com)