February 2023 Medium/Long Range Pattern Discussion Thread.....Torch or Tundra???

[Carvers Gap]

2 hours ago, PowellVolz said:

I might be in the minority but I’m ready for spring unless we get a great shot at a good snow.


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Well, in February I pretty much want cold.  I don't want spring in Feb.

[Carvers Gap]

One further note, those big highs are often the product of SSW events.  They will dump into the west about 75% of the time and then head eastward.  If they every head east first(this looks west), look out.

[Blizzard22]

18 minutes ago, Carvers Gap said:

One further note, those big highs are often the product of SSW events.  They will dump into the west about 75% of the time and then head eastward.  If they every head east first(this looks west), look out.

Why do they dump into the west most of the time ?

[Holston_River_Rambler]

1 hour ago, Blizzard22 said:

Why do they dump into the west most of the time ?

I think it partly has to do with the fact that they represent very cold, very dense air and it tends to slide down the front range of the Rockies first, since they typically originate in NW Canada.  

[Holston_River_Rambler]

Speaking of big highs, @Carvers Gap the 18z GFS has it again:

[Carvers Gap]

3 hours ago, Blizzard22 said:

Why do they dump into the west most of the time ?

They tend to go to Asia more often.  If we get a dump of cold air here, it often goes West as Holston notes.  Cold air masses heading south like big continents.  The Rockies tend to bank cold, but the Plains and front range are the center of the continent so that makes sense.  SSWs will absolutely wreck modeling in the LR, so I am pretty guarded w/ the timeframe of Feb 25-March10.  Could get wild during that time frame if the cold dumps into the Lower 48...just depends where it goes.

[PowellVolz]

Maybe we’ll get lucky and have a ULL track to our SE up the coast…




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[Carvers Gap]

One year we tracked a massive cold outbreak for 16 days on the GFS.  Literally, it turned out to be a cold front passage which lasted about twelve hours.  

The 90s would have been the worst era to track 94-95, 96-97, 97-98, 98-99, and 99-00.  I thought it might not snow again.  We did have some random HUGE storms in there in NE TN.  But overall, I can remember the grass having to be mowed on school playgrounds during the winter.  And I am not talking like picking up leaves.  I am talking mowing shin high grass.

Now, it is on to the MJO.  It is like an afternoon soap opera.  It is full of drama.  So, we are out of the really warm phases today.  I bet a lot of you didn't know that - I didn't!  We exited phase 6(barely) this morning on the CPC MJO plots.  It has raced across 4, 5, and 6.  We should see a rotation through 8, then it circles back into 7, and then maybe high amplitude 8 as we traverse March after the 10th.  To simplify...hot, cold, hot, cold....wash, rinse, repeat.  

That IMHO increases the chance for a spring winter storm IF(stress) the precip can time w/ one of the incoming cold fronts.  I don't think anyone is out of the woods regarding this(all elevations).  To be clear, modeling is woefully benign at 12z.  I don't see a threat on modeling.  But all winter, we have seen modeling correct towards the MJO plots.  I think that will occur as we move onward.  It will be interesting to see if the Euro Weeklies continue to trend warmer in the LR(the were cold and then cold-ish)

[Holston_River_Rambler]

1 hour ago, Carvers Gap said:

The 90s would have been the worst era to track 94-95, 96-97, 97-98, 98-99, and 99-00.

Sadly the 90s were the highlight of my winters growing up, lol. 

[Carvers Gap]

2 hours ago, Holston_River_Rambler said:

Sadly the 90s were the highlight of my winters growing up, lol. 

Man - that is rough!   I was a child of the 70s to mid80s, minus two years in the purgatory (for winter lovers) known as Orlando, Florida.  I lived some of my college days during the 93 blizzard.  The 90s were barren compared to those times.  

[Carvers Gap]

12z Euro Weeklies hold serve and did not continue the warming trend, and were slightly colder.  

[beavis1729]

14 minutes ago, Carvers Gap said:

12z Euro Weeklies hold serve and did not continue the warming trend, and were slightly colder.  

Thank you sir. What timeframe are you focusing on…weeks 1-2, 3-5, or both? Unfortunately recent op runs (FWIW) seem to hinting at a strong warm up next week. Would be great if the weeklies were going against this idea. 

[BNAwx]

24 minutes ago, Carvers Gap said:

Man - that is rough!   I was a child of the 70s to mid80s, minus two years in the purgatory (for winter lovers) known as Orlando, Florida.  I lived some of my college days during the 93 blizzard.  The 90s were barren compared to those times.  

LOL!  We must be around the same age. I grew up in Cookeville and remember missing school for what seems like weeks on end when I was in kindergarten & 1st grade (those late 70’s winters).  I remember January ‘85 especially due to the cold and the January ‘88 storm.  I remember being glued to TWC for day’s leading up to March ‘93 and because it was college spring break (glad I didn’t have plans….) 95-‘96 was a banner winter.  The only other 90’s event worth noting is the surprise foot of snow we received early February of ‘98.

[Carvers Gap]

27 minutes ago, beavis1729 said:

Thank you sir. What timeframe are you focusing on…weeks 1-2, 3-5, or both? Unfortunately recent op runs (FWIW) seem to hinting at a strong warm up next week. Would be great if the weeklies were going against this idea. 

Let me go back and check.  Now, of note 12z was a different run d10-15(more ridge in the east).  The Weeklies are based off of 0z which was colder(flatter ridge in the East and more trough).  Off the top of my head weak 3-6 are increasingly chilly w/ a -NAO developing and holding.  The warm-up is likely due to the MJO rotation back through phase 7.  

[Carvers Gap]

22 minutes ago, BNAwx said:

LOL!  We must be around the same age. I grew up in Cookeville and remember missing school for what seems like weeks on end when I was in kindergarten & 1st grade (those late 70’s winters).  I remember January ‘85 especially due to the cold and the January ‘88 storm.  I remember being glued to TWC for day’s leading up to March ‘93 and because it was college spring break (glad I didn’t have plans….) 95-‘96 was a banner winter.  The only other 90’s event worth noting is the surprise foot of snow we received early February of ‘98.

Yeah, I watched the Weather Channel's LR forecast before I had access to wx models!  I knew what time of day it updated.  '93 was crazy, because they nailed it from so far out.  I remember the snow for that being very fine, and light as that Saturday began.  Then the hammer came down as the core came closer.

 As for the 70s, I lived in Knoxville and snow was plentiful.  When it wasn't in the valleys, we would head to the Smokies to sled in the Chimneys picnic area.

[Daniel Boone]

Carver's, Bnawx you sound just like me, lol. Those late 70's Winter's were a snowlover's Dream !  They were long, cold and snowy. Before TWC came along I would watch every evening local TV weather cast. Sometimes I would jump from one channel to the other and catch other casts. Then came TWC and I, like Carver's would glue to it any time I could get the chance. Those were fun time's.

  I actually began my weather watching in the late 60"s. I'm an Antique. Some great Winter's then as well , in particular 1969-70. 

[Greyhound]

LOL!  We must be around the same age. I grew up in Cookeville and remember missing school for what seems like weeks on end when I was in kindergarten & 1st grade (those late 70’s winters).  I remember January ‘85 especially due to the cold and the January ‘88 storm.  I remember being glued to TWC for day’s leading up to March ‘93 and because it was college spring break (glad I didn’t have plans….) 95-‘96 was a banner winter.  The only other 90’s event worth noting is the surprise foot of snow we received early February of ‘98.

93 was my senior year at TTU!! Fun times during that event!!

[Holston_River_Rambler]

My parents told me about the late 70s, but I wasn't born until '83. My mom grew up near Duffield, VA and told about some huge snowflakes during one of those late 70s storms. 

Speaking of cold the long range GFS cuts off the trough just off the west coast and we get, if not snowy, a cold look:

There and gone from one run to the next, but at least another option on the table and maybe that is the sort of look we start to see as the MJO wave progresses east. 

[Carvers Gap]

7 minutes ago, Holston_River_Rambler said:

My parents told me about the late 70s, but I wasn't born until '83. My mom grew up near Duffield, VA and told about some huge snowflakes during one of those late 70s storms. 

Speaking of cold the long range GFS cuts off the trough just off the west coast and we get, if not snowy, a cold look:

There and gone from one run to the next, but at least another option on the table and maybe that is the sort of look we start to see as the MJO wave progresses east. 

18z Happy Hour rides again!

[Holston_River_Rambler]

I'll believe it when I see it at this point, but the Hi res models are pretty gung ho about some snow showers behind the front tomorrow AM. HRRR:

and is that a little low to the lee of the Apps I see? 

[Daniel Boone]

1 hour ago, Holston_River_Rambler said:

My parents told me about the late 70s, but I wasn't born until '83. My mom grew up near Duffield, VA and told about some huge snowflakes during one of those late 70s storms. 

Speaking of cold the long range GFS cuts off the trough just off the west coast and we get, if not snowy, a cold look:

There and gone from one run to the next, but at least another option on the table and maybe that is the sort of look we start to see as the MJO wave progresses east. 

November '76 I witnessed 3" diameter Flakes. More like patties as they were thick. 

[Matthew70]

I grew up in Holston valley in the 70’s. Man what wonderful times playing in the snow. We had a Pasteur field the whole neighborhood would build a bonfire at night. We would sled down that field all night. It was long & steep.  With 3 wheelers back then pulling everyone back up the hill.  We would rotate the drivers. I miss those days & wish my kids could experience times like that & the growing up on the farm.  Moved to Nashville mid 80’s.  Good snows then also.  I miss the mountains & the ridge wood barbecue. I’m 53 & it’s tough seeing how times are now. Wx & all. It’s complete opposite of what it used to be. 

[PowellVolz]

I'll believe it when I see it at this point, but the Hi res models are pretty gung ho about some snow showers behind the front tomorrow AM. HRRR:

and is that a little low to the lee of the Apps I see? 

Friends in Nashville are reporting light snow


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[Daniel Boone]

Light Snowshowers here currently.  Storm Total Rainfall of 3.73". 5.91" since Sunday. 

Edit: Spoke too soon. just had a mod/heavy snshr go thru.

[Carvers Gap]

-NAO showing up on LR modeling.  Mirage?  Maybe.  Both the GEPS and GEFS have it.  The GEFS is actually trending towards a new LR look.  We have been here before...so, we know the drill.

[Jed33]

Snow showers scattered around here right now. Temp is 35.

[Carvers Gap]

Normally, it is bad form to be using the last slide of any model run whether it be ensembles or operational runs.  I debated on whether just to put these in banter.  Alas, we only live once.  It is worth noting that the previous hours are actually colder.  I am using these to demonstrate what modeling has been hinting at for several days.  The first signs of the -NAO are actually showing up on the eastern coast of Greenland around 240.  To me this makes a lot of sense as NAO sigs tend to return if they are seen earlier during winter.  FTR, I am not saying this is going to result in wintry weather at lower elevations.  It certainly could, and March has plenty of precedent for snow north of I-40.  But that is a fairly stout block showing up in the LR.  That is a pretty good conveyor belt for BN temps.   I feel like I have said this 100x....we have seen this look before, only to see it corrode over time.  That is certainly the likelihood with this set-up, but it is worth discussing, if anything just because it is interesting.  This look has support from MJO plots and the SSW.  The GEFS just goes bonkers with it.

 

[Carvers Gap]

The above is the first sign that the Weeklies(Euro) might have some merit as they have weeks 3-5 chilly, but seasonably so.  We used to take church groups to a church camp near Beauty Spot in NC.  On more than one occasion during March, we either had to postpone or just chose to take the vans on up.  That is a really good area to chase snow.  

[Carvers Gap]

And tracking winter wx windows during March is fraught with disappointment as more often than not...it doesn't snow below 2000'. If (huge if) we can reel in the pattern above, we could see some chances.  It is unlikely, but worth loosely tracking.  I won't be posting a ton about it, but since the beginning are inside of d10, I thought it was worth noting.  Consider this the bat signal.  I will update if models continue to be promising.  If you don't hear anything about it, assume it has gone poof.  

At the very least the Scandinavian Ridge is set to fire.  That will often retrograde into an NAO block.  The 12z operational GFS(not the ensemble mentioned above) goes nuts w/ the -NAO.  

[snowmaker]

Here in northwest middle Tennessee in late winter the late feb- early March is usually the ticket. If we get a good snow or sleet event that stays on the ground and makes a major impact it usually happens in the first 10 days of March. Now through history there have been a few exceptions where it has come later. Just last year we received 3.2 inches on the 12th of March. We had a huge snow here on the 7-8th of March in 2009 of 9 inches. We had a massive sleet storm of 7 inches followed by a week of very cold temps that left roads in terrible conditions for days in 2015 I believe. The Clarksville area did totally whiff on the superstorm of 93 and that was heartbreaking. But I also remember a few deep march snows when I was younger but they always seemed to melt quickly. I remember on in the 70’s where there was 10 inches on the ground at 5 in the morning and was almost entirely gone by dinner time the next day. It certainly can happen in March, but I will be looking to see how the last week of February and the first week of March shake out. Usually if we crank out a good late season winter event that is the prime for West and Middle Tennessee. Now for my friends on this forum in East Tennessee your chances remain higher further in March and even into early April no doubt. Good afternoon folks!