February 2023 Medium/Long Range Pattern Discussion Thread.....Torch or Tundra???

[matt9697]

My comments weren't meant to be a dig at anyone, simply stating what is going on. Also not saying analysis by forum members isnt useful. 

[Greyhound]

My comments weren't meant to be a dig at anyone, simply stating what is going on. Also not saying analysis by forum members isnt useful. 

I didn’t think your comments were in a harsh manner. Just simply wash / rinse / repeat is what it seems like any more. Sincere thanks to everyone for all that they do!!

[Carvers Gap]

The Euro Weeklies are still cold, but the mean is not crazy cold like last Thursday's run was.  Most of the run is BN, but seasonably so.  The front two weeks are warmer, and the last 30 days are BN.  That looks about right to me given the SSW and MJO phase 8 progression.  So, maybe some signs of spring if one rolls with the trend....but still a pretty cold start to spring if true.  The control run is quite cold, and also snowy for western parts of the state.   I still think I see more snow IMBY.

[Daniel Boone]

5 minutes ago, Carvers Gap said:

The Euro Weeklies are still cold, but the mean is not crazy cold like last Thursday's run was.  Most of the run is BN, but seasonably so.  The front two weeks are warmer, and the last 30 days are BN.  That looks about right to me given the SSW and MJO phase 8 progression.  So, maybe some signs of spring if one rolls with the trend....but still a pretty cold start to spring if true.  The control run is quite cold, and also snowy for western parts of the state.   I still think I see more snow IMBY.

I agree with your assessment Carver. I'm thinking a further east trend with systems the farther along we go. Probably be cutters and eastern trajectory one's early in but expect more similar to what we witnessed this last system. So, odds look more promising for snow in our snow starved eastern area's, particularly if the SSW stimulates the usual Blocking. My added 2 cents worth. 

[snowmaker]

30 minutes ago, Carvers Gap said:

The Euro Weeklies are still cold, but the mean is not crazy cold like last Thursday's run was.  Most of the run is BN, but seasonably so.  The front two weeks are warmer, and the last 30 days are BN.  That looks about right to me given the SSW and MJO phase 8 progression.  So, maybe some signs of spring if one rolls with the trend....but still a pretty cold start to spring if true.  The control run is quite cold, and also snowy for western parts of the state.   I still think I see more snow IMBY.

I love reading your long range looks. Many years weather just never lines up right no matter how things look in the long range. The weather can throw curves at the most seasoned weather forecasters. Being in the mowing business after the middle of March comes my mind focuses to spring. This just seems like the year that more times than none things fall apart inside 8-10 days. At least I have recorded 3.2 inches of snow with the 2 systems right before and after Christmas. And we had 2 waves of a decent but thankfully not a bad ice storm. If I don’t get anymore at this point I will not be surprised. I would gladly take a decent to good snow event or even 2 before then. I just don’t feel it is going to happen for west or middle Tennessee this year but I would love to be wrong. Still it’s Tennessee and never say never. Tennessee can go either way in winter, folks that have lived here any length of time find that out. There is always next winter even if this one folds early. Thanks to all the folks that add great input here, it is much appreciated. Go Vols!!!!

[Carvers Gap]

The 18z GFS rarely disappoints, and tonight was no exception as it tried to build a glacier in the LR.  Alas, it is the LR and it is the GFS at range.  But fun run.

[Holston_River_Rambler]

10 hours ago, Carvers Gap said:

The 18z GFS rarely disappoints,

Do you think since it is the last run of work day, someone(s) at NOAA tweak something in its algorithm throughout the day just a bit (sort of a daily tune up) and that's why we sometimes get "happy hour" solutions? 

Just to be clear this is mostly meant as a joke., but not entirely. 

 

[Holston_River_Rambler]

Nice 50/50 / -NAO dipole on the 6z GFS. We'll see if it can get reeled in to non fantasy land. 

Really like to see that 50/50 be a consistent part of the pattern 

[Daniel Boone]

The 50-50 has been the missing piece 

[Carvers Gap]

Spring is clearly on modeling today in the LR, but Saturday night will be bitterly cold before we begin to make the climb.  I still think we see a very sharp cold shot later in the month or early March.  The 12z Euro was trying to cook some mischief up today.  For now, I think the climb to spring begins in earnest after this weekend.  One thing to be wary about, maybe about half to 2/3 of modeling stalls the MJO in phase 8.  If that happens - cold.  Also, I am seeing some hints the NAO is going to fire.  Also another thing to be wary about, during 2018 when the SSW occurred...modeling flipped on a dime (literally went from warm to very cold in one run...and then stuck the landing from 16 days out).  Spring being on the way is not exactly a difficult call on my part as days are getting longer and this week is going to be WARM right before we cool back down.

[matt9697]

1 hour ago, Carvers Gap said:

Spring is clearly on modeling today in the LR, but Saturday night will be bitterly cold before we begin to make the climb.  I still think we see a very sharp cold shot later in the month or early March.  The 12z Euro was trying to cook some mischief up today.  For now, I think the climb to spring begins in earnest after this weekend.  One thing to be wary about, maybe about half to 2/3 of modeling stalls the MJO in phase 8.  If that happens - cold.  Also, I am seeing some hints the NAO is going to fire.  Also another thing to be wary about, during 2018 when the SSW occurred...modeling flipped on a dime (literally went from warm to very cold in one run...and then stuck the landing from 16 days out).  Spring being on the way is not exactly a difficult call on my part as days are getting longer and this week is going to be WARM right before we cool back down.

Working on Music Row in Nashville offers some great driving views. The view lately has been all the Saucer Magnolias in full bloom. Typically Nashville is about two weeks ahead of me north of town. Around here the Silver Maples and Elms are starting to bud, Spring is close.

[Carvers Gap]

1 hour ago, matt9697 said:

Working on Music Row in Nashville offers some great driving views. The view lately has been all the Saucer Magnolias in full bloom. Typically Nashville is about two weeks ahead of me north of town. Around here the Silver Maples and Elms are starting to bud, Spring is close.

Other than some daffodils, nothing blooming here that I can see.   I hope things don't start getting going too quickly.  The 12z EPS was not warm after d10.  It must feel like it was outdone by the Happy Hour GFS yesterday.  It wasn't "hold my beer" cold, but it was chilly.  This MJO trying to hang out it 8 makes me super cautious.   It won't surprise me to see modeling flip colder at some point if that MJO is legit.  What may happen is it rotates into 8...back to 7...back to 8.   That seems more reasonable.  The low here Saturday is supposed to be 21.  That will nip most blooming things here pretty badly.  

[Carvers Gap]

1 hour ago, matt9697 said:

Working on Music Row in Nashville offers some great driving views. The view lately has been all the Saucer Magnolias in full bloom. Typically Nashville is about two weeks ahead of me north of town. Around here the Silver Maples and Elms are starting to bud, Spring is close.

Nashville's low Saturday AM is 23...let's hope there isn't a ton blooming.  

[matt9697]

15 minutes ago, Carvers Gap said:

Nashville's low Saturday AM is 23...let's hope there isn't a ton blooming.  

Most of the ones blooming are near the city center in and amongst buildings so would probably have to get down there probably to have an impact.

[Carvers Gap]

47 minutes ago, matt9697 said:

Most of the ones blooming are near the city center in and amongst buildings so would probably have to get down there probably to have an impact.

Now, south facing walls of buildings are super interesting micro climates as are urban heat areas.  I have a fig planted in my backyard against a brick wall which faces south.  The climate along that wall is probably most similar to central Georgia due to the heat reflected from the brick during the day and the heat which the brick gives off at night.  Loosely termed, it is like a very weak oven.  My location is agricultural zone 7a.  But that wall area is probably 8b.  The first stuff to bloom in my yard is usually along that wall or the south facing slopes of my front yard.  I have stuff on that wall which didn't die back during the hard freeze of December.  I started learning about figs through the Italian Garden Project which is documenting how Italian Americans grow Mediterranean fruits/vegetables in New York, New Jersey, and Long Island especially.  They grow lemons, figs, persimmons, and mediterranean vegetables.  They bury their fig trees during winter.  South facing walls are critical.  Pretty fascinating stuff.   So,  temps might be 5-10 degrees warmer in those areas which you mention.

[Carvers Gap]

I have started a new thread dedicated to just talking about various aspects which affect our winter weather.  Feel free to jump right in.  I don't really like the thread title, so if one of you creatives have a better suggestion, please fire away.  Anyway, I thought we might begin with the PDO.  We can keep that thread running most of the off season.

[Holston_River_Rambler]

6z GFS shows some of the better potential with the -NAO and crucial 50/50 pattern, while the 0z shows how it could go downhill:

Not a textbook perfect look, but it gets it done for some of our area. Lower heights over the Canadian Maritimes locked in by an east based -NAO. I used the COD NEXLAB scheme below, just because it has more blue over me. 

 

0z shows how this could all develop the other way. NAO doesn't push west enough and everything stays north of us:

 

 

 

 

A lot of uncertainty on the ensembles wrt the late month. Look at the spread on the 0z EPS for the 24th of Feb:

Spread really starts around the 22nd, the time frame for the NAO to first start to flex. I personally think it is a bit rushed, as things tend to be in out in model land. 

 

MJO actually made it through the warm phases on the RMM plots fairly quickly for once:

[Met1985]

Great stuff @Holston_River_Rambler

[Daniel Boone]

3 hours ago, Holston_River_Rambler said:

6z GFS shows some of the better potential with the -NAO and crucial 50/50 pattern, while the 0z shows how it could go downhill:

Not a textbook perfect look, but it gets it done for some of our area. Lower heights over the Canadian Maritimes locked in by an east based -NAO. I used the COD NEXLAB scheme below, just because it has more blue over me. 

 

0z shows how this could all develop the other way. NAO doesn't push west enough and everything stays north of us:

 

 

 

 

A lot of uncertainty on the ensembles wrt the late month. Look at the spread on the 0z EPS for the 24th of Feb:

Spread really starts around the 22nd, the time frame for the NAO to first start to flex. I personally think it is a bit rushed, as things tend to be in out in model land. 

 

MJO actually made it through the warm phases on the RMM plots fairly quickly for once:

Excellent work Holston ! Hopefully that 50-50 will come through this time.

[Holston_River_Rambler]

I honestly don't think I've seen a 50/50 H5 type set up like some of these runs on the GFS since I've been posting. That's not to try and hype anything up, please no one read it that way. It's a new set up for me, so hopefully something to learn successful or not. 

[Carvers Gap]

1056 hp rolling through the Plains d8-10 on the GFS.  Yes, it is the GFS.  That said, that is a monster.   The MSLP anomaly is expansive.  

[Carvers Gap]

Big highs like that are trouble during late February from my experience.  The Canadian has a similar set-up, but the cold doesn't drive as far to the south.  Those are big time features, and would highly likely have a big storm sitting right on their southern edge if true.

[Carvers Gap]

Just as an example.  This is way out there so big boulders of salt.  

 

[PowellVolz]

Just as an example.  This is way out there so big boulders of salt.  

 

.

[Matthew70]

Do we really want any cold in late February.  Seems for most cold means 33 cold rain outside mountains & favored areas.  Or could be the cold enough for freezing rain. Ugh.  One thing does look certain is it’s going to be wet. I have said it before & will say it again.  I hate cold springs! 

[PowellVolz]

Do we really want any cold in late February.  Seems for most cold means 33 cold rain outside mountains & favored areas.  Or could be the cold enough for freezing rain. Ugh.  One thing does look certain is it’s going to be wet. I have said it before & will say it again.  I hate cold springs! 

I might be in the minority but I’m ready for spring unless we get a great shot at a good snow.


.

[beavis1729]

45 minutes ago, Matthew70 said:

Do we really want any cold in late February.  Seems for most cold means 33 cold rain outside mountains & favored areas.  Or could be the cold enough for freezing rain. Ugh.  One thing does look certain is it’s going to be wet. I have said it before & will say it again.  I hate cold springs! 

I look at it differently. Ideally, I would like 4 months of winter (11/15 to 3/15), as we don’t have nearly enough of it. 
 

To me, the idea of “winter” means a generally consistent and dependable period with snow on the ground, with frozen lakes and ponds. Currier and Ives stuff.  Doesn’t mean every single day has to have high temp below freezing…but winter is such a short and up-and-down season in my neck of the woods. For instance, we may get 2-3” of snow tomorrow, but then it will melt in a couple days. And we’ve had bare ground for much of the season so far. That drives me crazy. If it were November or March, no problem…but I prefer a reliable wintry “feel” in DJF. Then let the warm mongers enjoy the other 9 months. 
 

We can get good wintry events and periods imby, but it’s not consistent enough. Unfortunately, you need to live at 45N or further north in the Midwest for that.
 

So, I’m not really ready for spring until 3/15. By that point, the daylight gets so long that you can’t really fight the season anymore. Our climo (even in northern IL) isn’t great for winter…so we might as well root for as much of it as possible. 

[matt9697]

2 hours ago, PowellVolz said:

.

 

2 hours ago, Carvers Gap said:

Just as an example.  This is way out there so big boulders of salt.  

 

Does that mean cold? I mean, it is red 

[Carvers Gap]

1 hour ago, matt9697 said:

 

Does that mean cold? I mean, it is red 

Surface pressure during winter is usually high if the temperature is cold.  Pressure at 500mg is a different story.  I use surface pressure to see if the cold is slipping under high pressure aloft.  1050 is a BIG high.  We know the cold shot is significant if it is generally above 1040.  Other globals have it further north.  That type of intrusion on the GFS(and it has signaled falsely multiple times this winter) would be significant, but well within climatology.  

[Carvers Gap]

To thread the needle we want to see one of those big highs sliding with a low pressure along the Gulf Coast.    So, one of the ways we identify winter wx windows is to find a big high.  How quickly does it slide to the east is important.   How strong the high is also important.  Most cold shots are not holding for long east of the MS, so we really are just looking to time-up something.  We want an active jet stream for this to occur and shorter wavelengths.   The timeframe around the 24th is a possibility.