February 2023 Medium/Long Range Pattern Discussion Thread.....Torch or Tundra???

[Blizzard22]

Just now, Carvers Gap said:

In NE TN, it can snow like crazy during March.  I don't think this will happen this year, but some great winters had a March component.  Just never know.  I have been through Jan-Feb nearly snowless winters and had my seasonal average by April 1.  March 2018 was snowy here.  

I would imagine the first half of March is more conducive for snow than the last half of March.

[Carvers Gap]

March is like June in Yellowstone.  It can be warm or it can snow.  It just depends on the day.  I have started all of the winter threads.  About Feb 20th, someone needs to start a March thread.  

[Carvers Gap]

Just now, Blizzard22 said:

I would imagine the first half of March is more conducive for snow than the last half of March.

Definitely, just due to sun angle and also climatology really fights us here during the second half of March.  I did get snow on one of my HS spring breaks in 88 or 89 during April.  We had like 8-12" of the stuff.  That wasn't so much fun.  LOL.  Now places like the Smokies and Pisgah can get straight hammered all the way to the end of April.

[Holston_River_Rambler]

SPV looks like it will be annihilated by the end of the month. 

 

 

Those gifs are starting about hr 90, so it's not all that far out there now. Not sure the exact day that we will see a SSW, but I think one will be official in the next 10 - 15 days. 

Here is the 3D vortex:

Now we wait and see how this will play out by the first week of March or so. I don't necessarily think we will see impacts here by then, but I suspect there will be some impact on the N. Hemisphere's pattern by then. 

 

For once in a long time, the MJO signal wants to fly through the warm phases on the Euro and GEFS suites:

 

Looks to me like it is trying to make it fully into the western Pac in 7 - 10 days. I would almost be willing to say we have a shot at a storm in 20 - 25 days based on that progression, and how the pattern has been playing out since Fall, so March 3 - 8? How the literal fallout from the SPV lands could impact this progression constructively or destructively though IMO. 

For example, let's look at the Feb 2018 SSWE that occurred around the same time this one will. Radar illustrates the pattern's evolution from progressive to blocky, specifically a -NAO. 

 

Radar loop starting Feb 24, 2018:

 

SE ridge city. Boundary primarily over the TN and OH Valleys. 

 

Around the 28th, things start to change:

The boundary is still in relatively the same area at first, but after the first wave rides it, notice how that storm kind of gets stuck over New England. After that instead of everything moving from the TX panhandle to the OH valley, you see most shortwaves running from the Midwest to either East TN or a bit north of us in the Mid Atlantic. That would be an NAO. 

From Feb 20 to March 1st the N. American H5 pattern goes from this:

 

to this:

 

Looks like the Pacific pattern was not so great that year (imagine that), but the NAO at least offset that a bit. This year we have had a pretty regular window of a week or so each month where the Pacific gets a bit better. Can we time that up with an -NAO like we did in December? Will shorter wave lengths help us this time around? 

I think we want to start to look for some sort of a jet extension. Right now it is really retracted. In the left exit region of the Pac jet, you usually get a trough. For now that has been in the far western Aleutians or Kamchatka:

 

 

Ideally we want the jet extended to around Hawaii, so we get a semi permanent trough over the central Aleutians or Bering sea and that ever popular trough just east of Hawaii and ridging into the EPO and PNA regions. 

Look for reliable people on twitter to start talking about an east Asia mountain torques. I forget which one we want, but one will give us a jet extension. We just don't want the jet to extend too far lol. If it is all the way across the Pac like it was in early January that is more of a super El Nino pattern that floods the CONUS with Pacific air and you get the Central Canada Hudsons Bay ridge downstream of a mean trough over AK and western Canada, instead of -NAO type ridging. 

 

[Itryatgolf70]

My concern is that this ssw kicks in when its too late for most, but with fast mjo progression, all bets are off. I found that interesting also on fast loop through the phases. 

[Daniel Boone]

3 hours ago, Holston_River_Rambler said:

SPV looks like it will be annihilated by the end of the month. 

 

 

Those gifs are starting about hr 90, so it's not all that far out there now. Not sure the exact day that we will see a SSW, but I think one will be official in the next 10 - 15 days. 

Here is the 3D vortex:

Now we wait and see how this will play out by the first week of March or so. I don't necessarily think we will see impacts here by then, but I suspect there will be some impact on the N. Hemisphere's pattern by then. 

 

For once in a long time, the MJO signal wants to fly through the warm phases on the Euro and GEFS suites:

 

Looks to me like it is trying to make it fully into the western Pac in 7 - 10 days. I would almost be willing to say we have a shot at a storm in 20 - 25 days based on that progression, and how the pattern has been playing out since Fall, so March 3 - 8? How the literal fallout from the SPV lands could impact this progression constructively or destructively though IMO. 

For example, let's look at the Feb 2018 SSWE that occurred around the same time this one will. Radar illustrates the pattern's evolution from progressive to blocky, specifically a -NAO. 

 

Radar loop starting Feb 24, 2018:

 

SE ridge city. Boundary primarily over the TN and OH Valleys. 

 

Around the 28th, things start to change:

The boundary is still in relatively the same area at first, but after the first wave rides it, notice how that storm kind of gets stuck over New England. After that instead of everything moving from the TX panhandle to the OH valley, you see most shortwaves running from the Midwest to either East TN or a bit north of us in the Mid Atlantic. That would be an NAO. 

From Feb 20 to March 1st the N. American H5 pattern goes from this:

 

to this:

 

Looks like the Pacific pattern was not so great that year (imagine that), but the NAO at least offset that a bit. This year we have had a pretty regular window of a week or so each month where the Pacific gets a bit better. Can we time that up with an -NAO like we did in December? Will shorter wave lengths help us this time around? 

I think we want to start to look for some sort of a jet extension. Right now it is really retracted. In the left exit region of the Pac jet, you usually get a trough. For now that has been in the far western Aleutians or Kamchatka:

 

 

Ideally we want the jet extended to around Hawaii, so we get a semi permanent trough over the central Aleutians or Bering sea and that ever popular trough just east of Hawaii and ridging into the EPO and PNA regions. 

Look for reliable people on twitter to start talking about an east Asia mountain torques. I forget which one we want, but one will give us a jet extension. We just don't want the jet to extend too far lol. If it is all the way across the Pac like it was in early January that is more of a super El Nino pattern that floods the CONUS with Pacific air and you get the Central Canada Hudsons Bay ridge downstream of a mean trough over AK and western Canada, instead of -NAO type ridging. 

 

Excellent analysis ! Nothing to add to that. 

[PowellVolz]

Timmer thinks we are about to head out of Niña. Anyone agree, disagree?


.

[Met1985]

1 hour ago, PowellVolz said:

Timmer thinks we are about to head out of Niña. Anyone agree, disagree?


.

It's decaying fast. I've read where we may have a nino like spring. Which would delay a true spring.

[Carvers Gap]

29 minutes ago, Met1985 said:

It's decaying fast. I've read where we may have a nino like spring. Which would delay a true spring.

I think it is here now.  LR modeling (weeklies) are textbook Nino looks.

[Met1985]

Just now, Carvers Gap said:

I think it is here now.  LR modeling (weeklies) are textbook Nino looks.

Yeah great updates on that also. I think your right.

[PowellVolz]

It's decaying fast. I've read where we may have a nino like spring. Which would delay a true spring.

So another 6 weeks of the last 6 weeks. Can’t wait


.

[Carvers Gap]

21 minutes ago, PowellVolz said:

So another 6 weeks of the last 6 weeks. Can’t wait


.

Regular crap fest.  Cosgrove notes that his analogs for spring are actually warm - so there is that.  Maybe we catch a bit of residual Nina to keep things seasonal.  The Euro Weeklies were just about as ugly as one could get.  I said this earlier...I don't think TRI's last snow has been had yet.  I could be wrong.  It takes well BN temps in March to score, but that possibility is there early in the month, and maybe even later than that.  I think we continue to see the MJO loop through cold phases -> warm phases -> and then cold phases...wash, rinse repeat.   The signal for March is a bit more conflicting that it would seem on the surface.  April looks nasty as does the early part May.   Hoping this doesn't got to a super Nino next winter.  The QBO in conjunction w/ a weak-ish Nino would be really good following a La Nina triplet of winters.

[tnweathernut]

16 minutes ago, Carvers Gap said:

Regular crap fest.  Cosgrove notes that his analogs for spring are actually warm - so there is that.  Maybe we catch a bit of residual Nina to keep things seasonal.  The Euro Weeklies were just about as ugly as one could get.  I said this earlier...I don't think TRI's last snow has been had yet.  I could be wrong.  It takes well BN temps in March to score, but that possibility is there early in the month, and maybe even later than that.  I think we continue to see the MJO loop through cold phases -> warm phases -> and then cold phases...wash, rinse repeat.   The signal for March is a bit more conflicting that it would seem on the surface.  April looks nasty as does the early part May.   Hoping this doesn't got to a super Nino next winter.  The QBO in conjunction w/ a weak-ish Nino would be really good following a La Nina triplet of winters.

When was the first?  I kid, I kid.......................  lol

[Carvers Gap]

20 minutes ago, tnweathernut said:

When was the first?  I kid, I kid.......................  lol

You know it has been snowier out "West" this winter.  LOL.

[PowellVolz]

Regular crap fest.  Cosgrove notes that his analogs for spring are actually warm - so there is that.  Maybe we catch a bit of residual Nina to keep things seasonal.  The Euro Weeklies were just about as ugly as one could get.  I said this earlier...I don't think TRI's last snow has been had yet.  I could be wrong.  It takes well BN temps in March to score, but that possibility is there early in the month, and maybe even later than that.  I think we continue to see the MJO loop through cold phases -> warm phases -> and then cold phases...wash, rinse repeat.   The signal for March is a bit more conflicting that it would seem on the surface.  April looks nasty as does the early part May.   Hoping this doesn't got to a super Nino next winter.  The QBO in conjunction w/ a weak-ish Nino would be really good following a La Nina triplet of winters.

Who is Cosgrove? I see him mentioned but never heard of him.
Hope he’s right

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[Carvers Gap]

20 minutes ago, PowellVolz said:

Who is Cosgrove? I see him mentioned but never heard of him.
Hope he’s right

.

Larry Cosgrove.  Old school met.  You can friend him on FB.  Though, I think you can find the same write-up on Linked-In.  He has a great Saturday night write-up on GoogleDocs that he does, and it is free.  He is level headed...not a lot of hype stuff.  He uses a combination of analogs, teleconnections, and a lifetime of experience.  He gets more right than he misses which is about all that you can ask from a professional who works to predict aspects of chaos.  He is very good with high latitude blocking.   

[PowellVolz]

Looks like the twitter storm chasers underwear are getting moist for next week. Looking like a lot of Tennessee will be involved.


.

[Matthew70]

1 hour ago, PowellVolz said:

Looks like the twitter storm chasers underwear are getting moist for next week. Looking like a lot of Tennessee will be involved.


.

Looks like the severe chances are fading quickly. 

[jaxjagman]

9 hours ago, PowellVolz said:

Looks like the twitter storm chasers underwear are getting moist for next week. Looking like a lot of Tennessee will be involved.


.

Most of the models have been showing it raining,cloudy here possibly in the morning until the CF passes through,Thursday.Shouldn't be no problem with winds.It could be a big deal here or not a big deal,its kinda to early to trust any model right now,its a pretty active pattern upcoming JMO

[PowellVolz]

Looks like the severe chances are fading quickly. 

SPC expanded the area to cover almost all of Tennessee and the slight risk is up in Ohio now.


.

[Carvers Gap]

The LR global ensembles still have two windows:

1.  Feb 18(looks less optimal due to precip not being timed well)

2.  Last few days of Feb and first few days of March

Go take a look at the last 2-3 days of the ensemble runs at 12z.  The polar vortex sets up shop over the Hudson Bay region.  We have seen these looks in the LR not verify once inside of 8-9 days, so beware.  However, that look would extend winter and delay spring.  I certainly have more thoughts about that look, but I want to see it be consistent before wasting my breath and typing energy.  LOL.

[Matthew70]

1 hour ago, Carvers Gap said:

The LR global ensembles still have two windows:

1.  Feb 18(looks less optimal due to precip not being timed well)

2.  Last few days of Feb and first few days of March

Go take a look at the last 2-3 days of the ensemble runs at 12z.  The polar vortex sets up shop over the Hudson Bay region.  We have seen these looks in the LR not verify once inside of 8-9 days, so beware.  However, that look would extend winter and delay spring.  I certainly have more thoughts about that look, but I want to see it be consistent before wasting my breath and typing energy.  LOL.

With the way this winter has gone.  I just have a hunch spring continues to bloom early.  We have the cold fronts come through drop us a day or 2 then right back up to 55-65.  I could eat alot of crow.  That would be fine.  Then again I hate cold springs so hard pass on polar vortex into spring. I am ready for spring.  Mowed today so my yard is ready. 

[Carvers Gap]

1 hour ago, Matthew70 said:

With the way this winter has gone.  I just have a hunch spring continues to bloom early.  We have the cold fronts come through drop us a day or 2 then right back up to 55-65.  I could eat alot of crow.  That would be fine.  Then again I hate cold springs so hard pass on polar vortex into spring. I am ready for spring.  Mowed today so my yard is ready. 

Cosgrove says analogs are warm for spring.  The Weeklies are super chilly.  Could go either way.  I think of March, April, May.....I would order the months in terms of cold(against the norms and coldest listed first):  April, May, March.

[PowellVolz]

With the way this winter has gone.  I just have a hunch spring continues to bloom early.  We have the cold fronts come through drop us a day or 2 then right back up to 55-65.  I could eat alot of crow.  That would be fine.  Then again I hate cold springs so hard pass on polar vortex into spring. I am ready for spring.  Mowed today so my yard is ready. 

I’m putting down pre emerg tomorrow


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[Daniel Boone]

2 hours ago, Carvers Gap said:

Cosgrove says analogs are warm for spring.  The Weeklies are super chilly.  Could go either way.  I think of March, April, May.....I would order the months in terms of cold(against the norms and coldest listed first):  April, May, March.

Most times I agree with Coz but, not this time. Reason being, SSW, MJO and Enso change. Btw, meant to mention in the post of who Coz is. He and Dave Dierks were friends in College. Dave credits him for taking Meteorology as a Major. 

[Holston_River_Rambler]

Two things I'll mention about the SPV stuff this AM. 

1. Most of the reputable twitter folks are just talking about the initial actual SSWE happening soon (the wind reversal). And that's fair. It's within a few days and will be the official day of the event. But if you go further out into what is typically la la model land there's a second pulse that obliterates the SPV after day 10. That's probably the event that has the most potential to eventually drip down to offer some potential for high latitude blocking. 

Here is the first event in a different graphic than usual just to change things up 

 

here is the second event in the usual tropical tidbits graphics:

 

2. Models haven't run far enough out in time yet to see the second event start to drip down:

 

The red shows the wind reversal and it has only sunk down to around 50mb by the end of the GFS run. 

 

 

 

 

[matt9697]

2 hours ago, Holston_River_Rambler said:

Two things I'll mention about the SPV stuff this AM. 

1. Most of the reputable twitter folks are just talking about the initial actual SSWE happening soon (the wind reversal). And that's fair. It's within a few days and will be the official day of the event. But if you go further out into what is typically la la model land there's a second pulse that obliterates the SPV after day 10. That's probably the event that has the most potential to eventually drip down to offer some potential for high latitude blocking. 

Here is the first event in a different graphic than usual just to change things up 

 

here is the second event in the usual tropical tidbits graphics:

 

2. Models haven't run far enough out in time yet to see the second event start to drip down:

 

The red shows the wind reversal and it has only sunk down to around 50mb by the end of the GFS run. 

 

 

 

 

All seems like it is pie in the sky to me; allot of you offer great analysis but ten days from now, we will have the same pattern and there will still be people that theorize something ten days from then should offer some possibility of being fruitful 

[Jed33]

Well, to be fair it is the weather, and the weather is going to do what the weather is going to do. Personally, I really appreciate Holston, Carver, and all the others that chime in here to offer observations and thoughts on the pattern and possibilities going forward. It’s hard to find analysis like this elsewhere and that’s what makes this board so great in my opinion! It may or may not work out, but there have been other times like this before. So, if it doesn’t work out in our favor, I don’t consider it a loss myself because the opportunity was there. When you are studying/interested in something you have no control over, then you take what you get and enjoy it good or bad. Then, the next time something comes up, you can draw on past experiences to give you an idea of what might happen. Even then though, it’s just an idea of what might happen. Nothing is ever guaranteed. Doesn’t mean it’s not fun or interesting to study though. Just my two cents.

[BuCoVaWx]

2 minutes ago, Jed33 said:

Well, to be fair it is the weather, and the weather is going to do what the weather is going to do. Personally, I really appreciate Holston, Carver, and all the others that chime in here to offer observations and thoughts on the pattern and possibilities going forward. It’s hard to find analysis like this elsewhere and that’s what makes this board so great in my opinion! It may or may not work out, but there have been other times like this before. So, if it doesn’t work out in our favor, I don’t consider it a loss myself because the opportunity was there. When you are studying/interested in something you have no control over, then you take what you get and enjoy it good or bad. Then, the next time something comes up, you can draw on past experiences to give you an idea of what might happen. Even then though, it’s just an idea of what might happen. Nothing is ever guaranteed. Doesn’t mean it’s not fun or interesting to study though. Just my two cents.

I agree 100%. I don't post much, as I really don't have much to offer other than obs when necessary, but I feel like I've been searching years to find a place that appreciates and educates on something I'm extremely passionate about, which of course is weather. This is for sure the right place. Multiple times a day I find myself coming here and hoping some sort of big post is put up explaining this and that, as I try to soak it all in. I've wanted to be a meteorologist all my life, unfortunately certain circumstances steered life in other directions. I just want to say thank you guys so much for everything you put into this forum, it is greatly appreciated. Sorry if this isn't the right place to post this. Felt Jeds post gave me the opportunity to share that with you guys.

[Carvers Gap]

43 minutes ago, Jed33 said:

Well, to be fair it is the weather, and the weather is going to do what the weather is going to do. Personally, I really appreciate Holston, Carver, and all the others that chime in here to offer observations and thoughts on the pattern and possibilities going forward. It’s hard to find analysis like this elsewhere and that’s what makes this board so great in my opinion! It may or may not work out, but there have been other times like this before. So, if it doesn’t work out in our favor, I don’t consider it a loss myself because the opportunity was there. When you are studying/interested in something you have no control over, then you take what you get and enjoy it good or bad. Then, the next time something comes up, you can draw on past experiences to give you an idea of what might happen. Even then though, it’s just an idea of what might happen. Nothing is ever guaranteed. Doesn’t mean it’s not fun or interesting to study though. Just my two cents.

Agree.  If one really wants to see how good the board is...I urge all to go look at the winter spec thread for this winter(from last summer) and go find a better seasonal forecast.  It should be noted that most of us here are amateurs and do this as a hobby.  Red taggers almost always have better insight. And it is free regional discussion about our own microclimates.  We even have people w/ weather their own data bases which go back decades(reference John).   We are very fortunate to have this place to talk weather.  Truly, discussion ranges from mountain wave events to winter storms to severe weather to flooding to droughts.    One of these days this place won't be here.  Enjoy it while it lasts.  Each event thread is a gold mine of climatology, observations, and discussion.  

I think we have done a pretty good job of identifying windows this winter for cold and possible wintery precip.  Not every thread works out(if they did we either need to go into business and/or go to Vegas), but having those threads will help several years from now.  We have definitely dealt with some head fakes in modeling since December.  Notably events will be the mountain upslope snows, the bitter cold of December, and the ice storm for west TN.  As "meh" as this winter has been, I did have snow on the ground and in the air on Christmas Day.  That is a score in my book.

The winter was definitely front loaded w/ a transition from Nina to Nino late.  The QBO is rising and that is a teleconnection which is tough to fight.  It might be one of the best teleconnections for great winters in this area, and it might be a great teleconnection for bad winters.  And again, it is noted that one teleconnection by itself is rarely accurate.  

For those new to the board, welcome to predicting chaos.  I studied a bit of this in college.  About half of it is over my head(ok, more than half....ok, a lot more than half) Britannica defines chaos theory as:

chaos theory, in mechanics and mathematics, the study of apparently random or unpredictable behaviour in systems governed by deterministic laws. A more accurate term, deterministic chaos, suggests a paradox because it connects two notions that are familiar and commonly regarded as incompatible.