Carvers Gap Posted January 23, 2023 Author Share Posted January 23, 2023 For kicks and giggles only and so the GFS doesn’t feel lonely. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Carvers Gap Posted January 23, 2023 Author Share Posted January 23, 2023 To be clear, this potential cold shot falls right after the 240h window. So, everyone knows the rules. This is Jan 23rd, so all of this is speculative. These are the d10-15 temp anomalies for the 6z GEFS. The 0z GEPs looks similar, but slightly less cold. Shift the 0z EPS a hair north with the green where it is straddling the TN/KY line. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Carvers Gap Posted January 23, 2023 Author Share Posted January 23, 2023 Looks like both the GEFS and GEPS held serve at 12z regarding cold and potential storminess. The 12z GFS deterministic was load w/ chances. Keep in mind I am just looking at an active STJ and plentiful cold air...the colder of the season in Minnesota and Wisconsin. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Holston_River_Rambler Posted January 23, 2023 Share Posted January 23, 2023 Euro took some steps toward the OP GFS at 12z, IMO. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Holston_River_Rambler Posted January 23, 2023 Share Posted January 23, 2023 Def. a nice cold feed oozing down from the arctic: 2 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Carvers Gap Posted January 23, 2023 Author Share Posted January 23, 2023 The 12z Euro ensembles and control are again quite cold. The ensembles have cooled quite a bit. The control has a Carolina snowstorm so it could be the track is now shifting eastward as the cold presses. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Carvers Gap Posted January 23, 2023 Author Share Posted January 23, 2023 I do want to see the Euro Weeklies MJO. The BOMM is trying to loop it back into cold phases and the Euro isn’t far from it. What I am noticing is the MJO looping back into 2 and 3 which are cold for February. Right now I am not even thinking storms, but just getting cold I to place for early February and then waiting to see if we can connect with the STJ. For E TN, this is probably the best look in some time IF it verifies.... 3 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Carvers Gap Posted January 23, 2023 Author Share Posted January 23, 2023 1.23.23 Euro Weeklies....Farily strong trend of cold being eastwardly displaced(from the last run) into the Plains, Midwest, Upper South, NE, and eastern Canada. They are also picking up on the colder airmass around Feb3rd-10th. The can kicking this time is the warm-up being pushed back. The 12z EPS was colder, so the Weeklies (derived from 0z) were not derived from a one-off run. Of note, the SE ridge gets pushed back pretty far to the SE on this run until mid-month. Roughly weeks 1, 2, 3 were cold w/ 4 seeing some moderation. Feb1-10th is where the cold shot is centered. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Carvers Gap Posted January 23, 2023 Author Share Posted January 23, 2023 2 hours ago, Holston_River_Rambler said: Def. a nice cold feed oozing down from the arctic: The Euro Weeklies had the same look(derived from 0z run). So, nice to see some consistency. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Silas Lang Posted January 23, 2023 Share Posted January 23, 2023 Big GFS run for TN. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Carvers Gap Posted January 23, 2023 Author Share Posted January 23, 2023 18z GFS is a nice run so far to echo Silas. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
matt9697 Posted January 23, 2023 Share Posted January 23, 2023 4 minutes ago, Carvers Gap said: 18z GFS is a nice run so far to echo Silas. Easily going negative - someone is getting hit next week 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Silas Lang Posted January 23, 2023 Share Posted January 23, 2023 4 minutes ago, Carvers Gap said: 18z GFS is a nice run so far to echo Silas. Yeah, it shows the potential. Even though the some of the other runs haven't shown a storm, the potential is definitely there for something like the GFS is showing. The first of Feb looks like a good window of opportunity. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TellicoWx Posted January 23, 2023 Share Posted January 23, 2023 4 minutes ago, Carvers Gap said: 18z GFS is a nice run so far to echo Silas. Big 1060 HP unleashed artic that run 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Silas Lang Posted January 23, 2023 Share Posted January 23, 2023 Some pics because I am bored and holding a sleeping baby: 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
matt9697 Posted January 23, 2023 Share Posted January 23, 2023 Is that another low coming out of the gulf? Wow the eye candy 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TellicoWx Posted January 23, 2023 Share Posted January 23, 2023 Definitely going into the Happy Hour Hall of Fame lol 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TellicoWx Posted January 23, 2023 Share Posted January 23, 2023 Nothing like 2" of freezing rain and a foot of snow...Goofy rides again 2 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
matt9697 Posted January 23, 2023 Share Posted January 23, 2023 Just now, TellicoWx said: Nothing like 2" of freezing rain and a foot of snow...Goofy rides again That is crazy! You know that will be all over social media lol 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Silas Lang Posted January 23, 2023 Share Posted January 23, 2023 This look reminds me a lot of Feb of years past. Storms with every p-type imaginable only to be followed by another. Can't remember the exact years, but somewhere between 2012 to 2015? Anyone remember? I just know there were a couple of Febs where we had some systems showing pretty much what the GFS just showed. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TellicoWx Posted January 23, 2023 Share Posted January 23, 2023 If you ever wonder what the perfect setup is here in the upper south...Goofy just showed it. 1060+ HP crashing into the Midwest generating a LP on the leading edge...HP setting up far enough south over the OH valley to funnel/anchor the cold down both sides of the Apps (almost like a double CAD)..and an active STJ attacking the retreating HP. 5 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
1234snow Posted January 23, 2023 Share Posted January 23, 2023 Yep, that’s going into the Goofy Hall of Fame. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Carvers Gap Posted January 24, 2023 Author Share Posted January 24, 2023 Pretty nice run. 2 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Carvers Gap Posted January 24, 2023 Author Share Posted January 24, 2023 19 minutes ago, 1234snow said: Yep, that’s going into the Goofy Hall of Fame. Put that one on the fridge. LOL. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Carvers Gap Posted January 24, 2023 Author Share Posted January 24, 2023 1 hour ago, Silas Lang said: Some pics because I am bored and holding a sleeping baby: The cold worries me some. Severe cold is showing up on many runs across global models from time to time. The Euro Weeklies had a really nice high pressure strung from Alaska to Florida just funneling what I must assume is Siberian grade cold into the Lower 48. No idea if overrunning verifies, but the cold is on the table. Two crazy cold shots in one season would be impressive. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stovepipe Posted January 24, 2023 Share Posted January 24, 2023 17 minutes ago, Carvers Gap said: The cold worries me some. Severe cold is showing up on many runs across global models from time to time. The Euro Weeklies had a really nice high pressure strung from Alaska to Florida just funneling what I must assume is Siberian grade cold into the Lower 48. No idea if overrunning verifies, but the cold is on the table. Two crazy cold shots in one season would be impressive. 2 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Carvers Gap Posted January 24, 2023 Author Share Posted January 24, 2023 17 minutes ago, Stovepipe said: LOL. That is awesome. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Icy Hot Posted January 24, 2023 Share Posted January 24, 2023 2 hours ago, Carvers Gap said: Pretty nice run. Iwh - it won't happen. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Carvers Gap Posted January 24, 2023 Author Share Posted January 24, 2023 1 minute ago, Icy Hot said: Iwh - it won't happen. I don’t know what lwh means...but I would be shocked if I got 17” of snow in Feb. LOL. I would gladly take half that total. That said, an overrunning event somewhere in the forum area (IF the cold materializes) would not shock me. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Carvers Gap Posted January 24, 2023 Author Share Posted January 24, 2023 Really that is a “turn out the lights” run by the GFS. That would be misery. The cold is also on the Cfsv2 at 18z. I do think western areas of the forum will see the most extreme cold. I do like the eastern storm tracks which are showing up which would be a Nino signal as well as a secondary Niña climatology track. Still a few days before the cone for cold and snow begins to narrow. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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