Holston_River_Rambler Posted February 9, 2023 Share Posted February 9, 2023 18z Euro: Looks like heights are starting to crash at hour 90 when the run ends. 4 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
fountainguy97 Posted February 9, 2023 Share Posted February 9, 2023 I wouldn't be surpsised for the spread to breiefly widen. Seems like that happens alot with bigger events. as long as we are in the middle of the cone we are good. Atleast according to @Carvers Gap 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Carvers Gap Posted February 9, 2023 Author Share Posted February 9, 2023 The 18z Euro and 18z GFS don't even look like they are modeling the same storm at the surface. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Carvers Gap Posted February 9, 2023 Author Share Posted February 9, 2023 Just now, fountainguy97 said: I wouldn't be surpsised for the spread to breiefly widen. Seems like that happens alot with bigger events. as long as we are in the middle of the cone we are good. Atleast according to @Carvers Gap Cone is Nashville to Raleigh. Range of options is rain to 12" of snow. When in doubt, go cold rain. LOL. 4 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Blizzard22 Posted February 9, 2023 Share Posted February 9, 2023 6 minutes ago, Carvers Gap said: Cone is Nashville to Raleigh. Range of options is rain to 12" of snow. When in doubt, go cold rain. LOL. When are we going to be confident in what will transpire ? Are we going to have to wait until Sat night ? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Wurbus Posted February 9, 2023 Share Posted February 9, 2023 28 minutes ago, Blizzard22 said: When are we going to be confident in what will transpire ? Are we going to have to wait until Sat night ? I'm never confident in East TN until I see snow coming down out of my windows... 7 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Carvers Gap Posted February 9, 2023 Author Share Posted February 9, 2023 33 minutes ago, Blizzard22 said: When are we going to be confident in what will transpire ? Are we going to have to wait until Sat night ? Upper level low...weatherman’s woe. Quoting Flash and it is true. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Carvers Gap Posted February 9, 2023 Author Share Posted February 9, 2023 7 minutes ago, Wurbus said: I'm never confident in East TN until I see snow coming down out of my windows... Exactly! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Carvers Gap Posted February 9, 2023 Author Share Posted February 9, 2023 I will say this, it sure beats facing +25F departures during Jan, LOL. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Carvers Gap Posted February 9, 2023 Author Share Posted February 9, 2023 And if you think cold weather is done for the season, I am just gonna leave this here. That Feb18-21st window is decent. 1040hp parked over Memphis feeding cold into the Gulf Coast. 3 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Carvers Gap Posted February 9, 2023 Author Share Posted February 9, 2023 Three windows I feel are interesting, because cold fronts are likely involved. 1. Feb 11th 2. Feb 18th 3. Last four days of Feb and/or first few days of March. 4 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowmaker Posted February 9, 2023 Share Posted February 9, 2023 27 minutes ago, Carvers Gap said: And if you think cold weather is done for the season, I am just gonna leave this here. That Feb18-21st window is decent. 1040hp parked over Memphis feeding cold into the Gulf Coast. Maybe that has time to trend northwest. That first system looks good for East Tennessee. But cold and dry in late February and March or rain and cold in late winter and early spring isn’t what I want either. For us in Middle and West Tennessee the door is still open but it is headed for the 4th quarter in a still fast progressive overall pattern. I would love 1 good winter snow storm surprise before spring but I wouid feel a lot better about it if I lived in East Tennessee this year. At least we did have 2 events around Christmas and another event at the end of Jan-Feb. We have had worse years. Good luck East Tennessee on the Sunday system, maybe things will change between now and spring for the rest of us. Haven’t heard much of nothing on the supposed ssw event that was expected any day now of course the mjo and other factors play in as well. Any good luck, maybe the mountains will do well Sunday. It looks to have potential for sure. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Silas Lang Posted February 9, 2023 Share Posted February 9, 2023 Well 18z Euro was more West and the 0z NAM is more East. Where will the GFS go? This is going to be rough couple of days. Would rather be too far NW at the moment if I had to choose. 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
*Flash* Posted February 9, 2023 Share Posted February 9, 2023 Doesn’t the Euro tend to overamp? As a middle TN resident, would love to actually see a NW trend work in our favor but I’m not sure the Euro has the best beat on this yet. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Carvers Gap Posted February 9, 2023 Author Share Posted February 9, 2023 15 minutes ago, *Flash* said: Doesn’t the Euro tend to overamp? As a middle TN resident, would love to actually see a NW trend work in our favor but I’m not sure the Euro has the best beat on this yet. It does. It was late to the game w/ the ice storm, and took a long time to correct to the CMC. It really wasn't close to being accurate until about 24hours to go. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Carvers Gap Posted February 9, 2023 Author Share Posted February 9, 2023 My confident in seeing snow w/ this system is quickly diminishing. Modeling is all over the place. Best of luck to the overnight crew. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Met1985 Posted February 9, 2023 Share Posted February 9, 2023 Just now, Carvers Gap said: My confident in seeing snow w/ this system is quickly diminishing. Modeling is all over the place. Best of luck to the overnight crew. It's amazing seeing this ull dropping so low with basically no blocking in the usual places. I mean it happens but this is extremely rare. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Daniel Boone Posted February 9, 2023 Share Posted February 9, 2023 1 minute ago, Carvers Gap said: My confident in seeing snow w/ this system is quickly diminishing. Modeling is all over the place. Best of luck to the overnight crew. Yeah, probably another mirage for us. Story of this Winter. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Silas Lang Posted February 9, 2023 Share Posted February 9, 2023 A tick back to the west on the GFS. TRI and the mountains would love that outcome. Pretty steep cutoff. Wouldn't take a lot to get more people involved. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Silas Lang Posted February 9, 2023 Share Posted February 9, 2023 Will say, at a quick glance it did seem warmer though. Very close temps. Like any closer and this will be a monsoon. lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Silas Lang Posted February 9, 2023 Share Posted February 9, 2023 Canadian is a beautiful rainstorm with a weird southern plateau jackpot of snow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
fountainguy97 Posted February 9, 2023 Share Posted February 9, 2023 Wow I go to sleep for 2 hours and the whole thing unravels... Edit 6am: I'm not surprised that we have more uncertainty at this stage and not less. 06 gfs, icon, NAM are all good hits for the mountains but cmc and RGEM are warm. The gfs is absurd. 9" kuchera in 6 hrs for alot of places.This one is far from over. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Holston_River_Rambler Posted February 9, 2023 Share Posted February 9, 2023 WPC projects an inverted trough back over Roan Mt. As it has slowed down it has kept moving further into long range for the Hi Res models, so hopefully still time for a few more adjustments for those of us on the plateau, lol. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Holston_River_Rambler Posted February 9, 2023 Share Posted February 9, 2023 Further afield the MJO has lit a fire wrt cyclones in the Maritime Continent and western Pac: That does look like it is really trying to work its way into the Pacific though. WRT the Strat, there's been some slight can kicking forward in time, but I suspect it will be pretty shredded by the final week of February. That's about the same time we had one in Feb 2018. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Holston_River_Rambler Posted February 9, 2023 Share Posted February 9, 2023 6z Euro: 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PowellVolz Posted February 9, 2023 Share Posted February 9, 2023 Canadian is a beautiful rainstorm with a weird southern plateau jackpot of snow. Dynamic cooling. I would expect mods to struggle handling low level dynamics under 2500’. For the valley all we need is low 40’s and good rates. As long as we are within the cold core, the temp dropping 5-7 degrees is nothing. Seen it drop close to 10 degrees before. . 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PowellVolz Posted February 9, 2023 Share Posted February 9, 2023 I remember Valentines Day(ish) in the early to mid 80’s we had a similar ULL that busted on the snow side. The cutoff was I-40 in Knoxville. I remember this because we were stuck at school until late in the afternoon towards dark. Started raining but quickly changed to snow north of 40. My dad had a 1980 full size Bronco and we started taking kids home from school (yeah you could do that back then). I can’t remember how much we ended up with but it had to been 5+ inches in just a few hours. Similar to the Huntsville bowling ball several years ago. . 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Silas Lang Posted February 9, 2023 Share Posted February 9, 2023 43 minutes ago, PowellVolz said: Dynamic cooling. I would expect mods to struggle handling low level dynamics under 2500’. For the valley all we need is low 40’s and good rates. As long as we are within the cold core, the temp dropping 5-7 degrees is nothing. Seen it drop close to 10 degrees before. . Yeah, agreed. When you look at that Canadian run it looks like most of the east gets under heavy precipitation, but most shows up as rain. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
fountainguy97 Posted February 9, 2023 Share Posted February 9, 2023 We have a 100mile difference between Euro and gfs today. Euro is NW and much more snow further into TN. The resolving of this will determine where the heaviest snow sets up this weekend. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Silas Lang Posted February 9, 2023 Share Posted February 9, 2023 45 minutes ago, fountainguy97 said: We have a 100mile difference between Euro and gfs today. Euro is NW and much more snow further into TN. The resolving of this will determine where the heaviest snow sets up this weekend. Maybe it's somewhere in the middle? Seems the models have done that a lot this winter. Two different solutions with a slow trend towards each other. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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