Daniel Boone Posted February 8, 2023 Share Posted February 8, 2023 5 minutes ago, tnweathernut said: Honestly, the presentation at 500 on numerous modeling has all the earmarks of a southern apps tree snapper. Yep, it sure does. Outages incoming. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Carvers Gap Posted February 8, 2023 Author Share Posted February 8, 2023 A little off topic, but @Holston_River_Ramblerthe woodpeckers in CA new that a hard winter was inbound... https://heraldcourier.com/news/national/woodpeckers-hoard-over-700-pounds-of-acorns-in-vacation-rental-home/article_56c015b4-d914-5b00-a2d0-3cb403d4b36f.html?utm_campaign=snd-autopilot&utm_medium=social&utm_source=facebook_Bristol_Herald_Courier&fbclid=IwAR1LFxFcHxJ4DScXnpdBVFPvQUg6QaAgiTCyYojccRipQXVgaR8Dfk_3EZI 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Carvers Gap Posted February 8, 2023 Author Share Posted February 8, 2023 And the Euro goes boom. 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
fountainguy97 Posted February 8, 2023 Share Posted February 8, 2023 3 minutes ago, Carvers Gap said: And the Euro goes boom. sure does. looks great. Is Dr. No about to be the most bullish model for us? 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Carvers Gap Posted February 8, 2023 Author Share Posted February 8, 2023 Still rolling and 15hours straight of wintry precip. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
fountainguy97 Posted February 8, 2023 Share Posted February 8, 2023 6 minutes ago, Carvers Gap said: Still rolling and 15hours straight of wintry precip. We need to cash this ASAP. Euro is actually the lowest model in regards to QPF. Good to see. All 12z models besides gfs are similar evolution. Potential for a mid-sized winter event for sure. Still doubtful on alot of accumulations but looks good. Probably thread worthy! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Carvers Gap Posted February 8, 2023 Author Share Posted February 8, 2023 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Carvers Gap Posted February 8, 2023 Author Share Posted February 8, 2023 Euro was slight jog to the east. CMC was a slight jog west. GFS was an ever so slight jog west. They may be converging on a storm track. We will see. The 12z GEPS has a decent snow mean over TRI...4-5". 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Carvers Gap Posted February 8, 2023 Author Share Posted February 8, 2023 The 12z GFS has a mid-south slider around d10 FWIW. That is going to change likely, but worth noting. That is the 18th timeframe that we have had circled as well...no cutter this run. edit: sorry. cutter 17th and then slider right after. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Carvers Gap Posted February 8, 2023 Author Share Posted February 8, 2023 The 12z Canadian has an upslope event around d10. Way out there, but good to see modeling seeing something w/ that cold shot. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
fountainguy97 Posted February 8, 2023 Share Posted February 8, 2023 going to be some monster EPS members. 4 contour cutoff on the mean at hr 78. phew. 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
fountainguy97 Posted February 8, 2023 Share Posted February 8, 2023 3 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
1234snow Posted February 8, 2023 Share Posted February 8, 2023 I’ll take this and call it a winter! Lol 8 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
fountainguy97 Posted February 8, 2023 Share Posted February 8, 2023 4 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Silas Lang Posted February 8, 2023 Share Posted February 8, 2023 24 minutes ago, fountainguy97 said: Got love the timing of this thing for us at this juncture. Marginal temps, but middle of the night with potentially heavy rates could make all the difference. You get something on the ground before daybreak and it could help tremendously with accumulation. 3 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Carvers Gap Posted February 8, 2023 Author Share Posted February 8, 2023 12z EPS snow mean for storm #1... 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Carvers Gap Posted February 8, 2023 Author Share Posted February 8, 2023 12z control 3 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PowellVolz Posted February 8, 2023 Share Posted February 8, 2023 Just need some lightning tomorrow morning . 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GaWx Posted February 8, 2023 Share Posted February 8, 2023 6 hours ago, Carvers Gap said: The other thing is the 12z GFS does not appear to have a consolidated center as it seems to have one foot in the faster solution and one foot in the slower....slightly double barrel in nature. Someone remind me...doesn't NC have a weird teleconnection to phase 4-5 of the MJO? @Met1985, do you remember that study that @GaWxhad at one time. In other words, right in the middle of that warm tour...NC scores more often than not. I don't recall finding anything special about phase 4-5 over other phases for NC. But what I can tell you about MJO tendencies regards RDU 6"+ snows (and by extension a good number of major SE winter storms in general including at ATL) and is this: low amp (within COD...most of them) to moderately low amplitude (between 1 and 1.5) was present for an amazing 93% of the big RDU storms since the daily MJO index started (13 of 14)! Only 1/17-18/2018 had an amplitude higher than 1.5 and it just happened to be in phase 4. It had an amp of 1.9. So, even that wasn't a high (2+) amp. So, I can say that none of RDU's fourteen 6"+ snows since the MJO started getting tracked daily had a high amplitude MJO (2+). The odds of any DJFM day having an amp of 2+ are 20%. So, the expectation if there were no tendency based on that would be for three of those fourteen 6"+ snows to have an amp of 2+. Having no high amp together with the fact that most of the 14 were when the MJO was within the circle tell me that the lower the amplitude the better the odds of a big snow in RDU and vicinity. Edit: Aside: Every ATL major IP or ZR since 1979 was within the circle entirely (all but one) or partially (one that was on two calendar days)! More evidence that being either inside or barely outside the circle is best for major wintry precip chances. Edit #2: The MJO forecasts have a 1.0 to 1.50 amp (low end moderate) for Feb 12th, which is the day with the highest threat for snow. So, although not ideal since it isn't inside the circle, it is not bad either since it isn't too far outside. 6 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Uncle Nasty Posted February 8, 2023 Share Posted February 8, 2023 @GaWx You sir, are a living, breathing, walking meteorology encyclopedia. Good stuff!!Sent from my moto z4 using Tapatalk 5 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Carvers Gap Posted February 8, 2023 Author Share Posted February 8, 2023 3 minutes ago, Uncle Nasty said: @GaWx You sir, are a living, breathing, walking meteorology encyclopedia. Good stuff!! Sent from my moto z4 using Tapatalk Yeah, that is a nice flyby by one of the forum's most respected posters!!!! 4 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Carvers Gap Posted February 8, 2023 Author Share Posted February 8, 2023 The 18z GEFS is east of 12z. Swing and a miss yet again by that model. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tnweathernut Posted February 8, 2023 Share Posted February 8, 2023 1 minute ago, Carvers Gap said: The 18z GEFS is east of 12z. Swing and a miss yet again by that model. Continues to trend deeper, further southwest, and more closed off at 500. A little slower and not as progressive and it would have looked very similar to the snowy southern app solutions, IMO. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Daniel Boone Posted February 8, 2023 Share Posted February 8, 2023 1 hour ago, GaWx said: I don't recall finding anything special about phase 4-5 over other phases for NC. But what I can tell you about MJO tendencies regards RDU 6"+ snows (and by extension a good number of major SE winter storms in general including at ATL) and is this: low amp (within COD...most of them) to moderately low amplitude (between 1 and 1.5) was present for an amazing 93% of the big RDU storms since the daily MJO index started (13 of 14)! Only 1/17-18/2018 had an amplitude higher than 1.5 and it just happened to be in phase 4. It had an amp of 1.9. So, even that wasn't a high (2+) amp. So, I can say that none of RDU's fourteen 6"+ snows since the MJO started getting tracked daily had a high amplitude MJO (2+). The odds of any DJFM day having an amp of 2+ are 20%. So, the expectation if there were no tendency based on that would be for three of those fourteen 6"+ snows to have an amp of 2+. Having no high amp together with the fact that most of the 14 were when the MJO was within the circle tell me that the lower the amplitude the better the odds of a big snow in RDU and vicinity. Edit: Aside: Every ATL major IP or ZR since 1979 was within the circle entirely (all but one) or partially (one that was on two calendar days)! More evidence that being either inside or barely outside the circle is best for major wintry precip chances. Edit #2: The MJO forecasts have a 1.0 to 1.50 amp (low end moderate) for Feb 12th, which is the day with the highest threat for snow. So, although not ideal since it isn't inside the circle, it is not bad either since it isn't too far outside. Great work as usual Larry !!! 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
fountainguy97 Posted February 8, 2023 Share Posted February 8, 2023 11 minutes ago, tnweathernut said: Continues to trend deeper, further southwest, and more closed off at 500. A little slower and not as progressive and it would have looked very similar to the snowy southern app solutions, IMO. It's strange but in a way trending toward others. another tick or two west and it'll start bringing it north pretty quickly. That being said the 18z GEFS is a complete miss for our area too. It sure is stubborn. Still by far the outlier. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tnweathernut Posted February 8, 2023 Share Posted February 8, 2023 3 minutes ago, fountainguy97 said: It's strange but in a way trending toward others. another tick or two west and it'll start bringing it north pretty quickly. That being said the 18z GEFS is a complete miss for our area too. It sure is stubborn. Still by far the outlier. Either the outlier or the leader........... I don't want to think about the latter. lol 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Daniel Boone Posted February 8, 2023 Share Posted February 8, 2023 Just now, fountainguy97 said: It's strange but in a way trending toward others. another tick or two west and it'll start bringing it north pretty quickly. That being said the 18z GEFS is a complete miss for our area too. It sure is stubborn. Still by far the outlier. Hopefully, this time the wretched thing won't score a Coup. I can see how that solution is possible, however. Saw it with the March 2009 System, although it was basically a strong Clipper traveling the Jet Trough SE through Arkansas, West Tn and across Alabama, Georgia then curving North grazing far Eastern TN and slamming Carolina's and Wytheville VA eastward. We were in that void area in the Trough. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PowellVolz Posted February 8, 2023 Share Posted February 8, 2023 Not saying it’s impossible but it’s impossible this continues SE. I would bet a lot of money this starts working it’s way back NW in the morning. In my opinion ULL’s tend to end up a little NW of the mods. . 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Carvers Gap Posted February 8, 2023 Author Share Posted February 8, 2023 31 minutes ago, PowellVolz said: Not saying it’s impossible but it’s impossible this continues SE. I would bet a lot of money this starts working it’s way back NW in the morning. In my opinion ULL’s tend to end up a little NW of the mods. . Agree. There is a HP which is sitting over the top which might be blocking it, but there is not bitterly cold air mass shunting southward. That said bowling balls are notoriously tough to predict. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Carvers Gap Posted February 8, 2023 Author Share Posted February 8, 2023 1 hour ago, Daniel Boone said: Great work as usual Larry !!! I mean where can one get that type of information other than here, and for free at that. This is such a great forum. 3 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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