Carvers Gap Posted February 7, 2023 Author Share Posted February 7, 2023 Boom. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
fountainguy97 Posted February 7, 2023 Share Posted February 7, 2023 The valley is nuked.o 6 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tnweathernut Posted February 7, 2023 Share Posted February 7, 2023 22 minutes ago, fountainguy97 said: The valley is nuked.o I think everyone is out enjoying the 60+ degree weather. Lol 18 Z was definitely some serious eye candy for east TN and the southern apps. 4 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Reb Posted February 7, 2023 Share Posted February 7, 2023 We should pull a MRX and wait until it’s snowing outside to start a thread. JMO 4 6 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Silas Lang Posted February 8, 2023 Share Posted February 8, 2023 1 hour ago, Reb said: We should pull a MRX and wait until it’s snowing outside to start a thread. JMO I'm afraid to even talk about it. lol If we get a few more runs like this, I do want someone to make a thread. I like having them for historical purposes, boom or bust. 5 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Holston_River_Rambler Posted February 8, 2023 Share Posted February 8, 2023 18z Euro dug more than it did at 12z IMO, consolidated everything a bit better at least in respect to vorticity: Looks like that would try to go negative at or just east of East TN 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Holston_River_Rambler Posted February 8, 2023 Share Posted February 8, 2023 Will the SE ridge help with this one and help it strengthen and wind up quicker? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Itryatgolf70 Posted February 8, 2023 Share Posted February 8, 2023 The SSW looks impressive but hopefully if a -ao happens, it don't happen too late. We can always get snow at night I suppose in spring lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Carvers Gap Posted February 8, 2023 Author Share Posted February 8, 2023 The 18z Euro control has it. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
fountainguy97 Posted February 8, 2023 Share Posted February 8, 2023 Impressive mean on 18z eps but GEFS is still spread. Wary of the super amped gfs for now. anyone have individuals for 18z? 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Vol4Life Posted February 8, 2023 Share Posted February 8, 2023 I always get confused on the weather model times. What time of day would this potentially hit? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Carvers Gap Posted February 8, 2023 Author Share Posted February 8, 2023 The 18z GEFS individual members are clustered around North Carolina...very few for E TN. But if this thing keeps jogging eastward, we may need some room. Wishing 24-36 hours, this thing is likely to lock in though. The EPS at 18z is a nice uptick. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Carvers Gap Posted February 8, 2023 Author Share Posted February 8, 2023 4 minutes ago, Vol4Life said: I always get confused on the weather model times. What time of day would this potentially hit? Just convert from military time, and then I think subtract 5 from that. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
*Flash* Posted February 8, 2023 Share Posted February 8, 2023 ULL, weather man's woe. Hopefully, it turns into a wow. 18z ECMWF Ens...doesn't look too shabby for middle TN. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
fountainguy97 Posted February 8, 2023 Share Posted February 8, 2023 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Holston_River_Rambler Posted February 8, 2023 Share Posted February 8, 2023 6z RGEM digging it the cut off all the way to the Gulf coast and looks like it is about to spread precip back over all of east TN There might be problems with cold air in this scenario below 3000' 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Holston_River_Rambler Posted February 8, 2023 Share Posted February 8, 2023 I guess we need to start watching how far south this first system pushes the boundary to try and see where the surface low will get going. I would prefer it to start up just south of Panama City and take a Valdosta -> Columbia, SC -> Raleigh type track. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
fountainguy97 Posted February 8, 2023 Share Posted February 8, 2023 These ULL systems are notorious for being a pain. Best to just sit back and see how this looks inside 48hrs. icon, cmc, euro at 6z are all lock step together with a East TN, App Spine hit. gfs and GEFS shifted east nearly 100miles at 06z to west NC. 12z should be a good benchmark as we are fully sampled BUT I've seen these get more uncertain at this range instead of more concrete. Unfortunately cut even kuchera in atleast half due to wet ground, daytime timing, and temps above 32. This is one of those "6" fell but only 2" stuck" type of deals. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Carvers Gap Posted February 8, 2023 Author Share Posted February 8, 2023 The 6z Euro ensemble ups totals for E TN and the Plateau. The control is big. The GFS, if it is right, is a NC special. The Euro is not there yet, but it had trouble w/ the last storm. It was far, far too far to the northwest. OTH, the GFS was to far to the SE and blew thermal profiles until the last minute. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Carvers Gap Posted February 8, 2023 Author Share Posted February 8, 2023 The 6z Euro control(and I checked) picks up almost exactly where the operational stops. For those new to the Euro off-run, it doesn't go out as far. So, you have to look at the control run of the ensemble to see where it would have gone. It is waaaay west from 0z. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Carvers Gap Posted February 8, 2023 Author Share Posted February 8, 2023 The 6z GEFS and EPS individuals. FTR, the GEPS(Canadian) is mostly nothing, and a few hits to the Carolinas. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Silas Lang Posted February 8, 2023 Share Posted February 8, 2023 2 hours ago, fountainguy97 said: These ULL systems are notorious for being a pain. Best to just sit back and see how this looks inside 48hrs. icon, cmc, euro at 6z are all lock step together with a East TN, App Spine hit. gfs and GEFS shifted east nearly 100miles at 06z to west NC. 12z should be a good benchmark as we are fully sampled BUT I've seen these get more uncertain at this range instead of more concrete. Unfortunately cut even kuchera in atleast half due to wet ground, daytime timing, and temps above 32. This is one of those "6" fell but only 2" stuck" type of deals. Yeah, if I get an inch I will be happy. Any more is gravy. It is also fun to watch as these systems can puke snow. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Silas Lang Posted February 8, 2023 Share Posted February 8, 2023 1 hour ago, Carvers Gap said: The 6z Euro ensemble ups totals for E TN and the Plateau. The control is big. The GFS, if it is right, is a NC special. The Euro is not there yet, but it had trouble w/ the last storm. It was far, far too far to the northwest. OTH, the GFS was to far to the SE and blew thermal profiles until the last minute. Do we want the storm to become stronger to pull more west? What is the mechanism that keeps it towards TN and not too far east? 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
fountainguy97 Posted February 8, 2023 Share Posted February 8, 2023 2 minutes ago, Silas Lang said: Do we want the storm to become stronger to pull more west? What is the mechanism that keeps it towards TN and not too far east? the timing of it closing off is the main factor. The faster it closes off (stronger quicker) = a further west track. The 06z gfs was more pr0gressive and weaker with the ULL. It closed off much later. As a result, the surface low was further west. ICON, CMC, EURO, and now the 12z NAM are all much stronger with a quicker close off which slows the storm down and allows it to pivot inland. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Carvers Gap Posted February 8, 2023 Author Share Posted February 8, 2023 23 minutes ago, Silas Lang said: Do we want the storm to become stronger to pull more west? What is the mechanism that keeps it towards TN and not too far east? Man, IDK. Old model biases are out the window this winter. I tend to think we want it just to our southwest given the trend all winter of storms coming back west(some bigly so). That said, Fountain makes a great point about when it closes off being key. By tomorrow at this time, we need to be right in the middle of that cone, and not the westward edge of guidance. Two things have helped me this winter. Don't trust the GFS d10+ w/ cold. Trust it more than the Euro inside of d5. If this event gets more extreme(higher totals), the GFS is probably more likely to get this right(John's rule). The GFS actually caught the southeast trend first, and was an extreme outlier....until it was likely right. So, I lean GFS right now...but I do take notice when the Euro backs west like it did at 6z. It is often adjusts first to that westward trend. Used to one could just say the GFS is too progressive, and it is coming northwest. One could also say the Euro is wound up to much and will jog southeast....Those old rules don't apply as much. For now, I would just blend the ensembles. That gives us I-81/I-75 as the western edge of guidance....for now. Downsloping would eat a bunch of that up on the western slopes of the Apps. Western NC looks prime w/ E TN the big question mark. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
fountainguy97 Posted February 8, 2023 Share Posted February 8, 2023 12z suite: the NAM, RGEM, and ICON are all holding strong to the earlier cutoff idea. (good) I will update this as we go along. Early consensus does place us squarely in the "center of the cone" per Carver's wishes. Still lots of game time left. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Carvers Gap Posted February 8, 2023 Author Share Posted February 8, 2023 4 hours ago, Holston_River_Rambler said: 6z RGEM digging it the cut off all the way to the Gulf coast and looks like it is about to spread precip back over all of east TN There might be problems with cold air in this scenario below 3000' That is an exceptionally great set-up if legit...at range gives me pause. That is how you get a big winter storm. The likelihood of somebody in the SE getting hammered is growing. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
fountainguy97 Posted February 8, 2023 Share Posted February 8, 2023 2 minutes ago, Carvers Gap said: That is an exceptionally great set-up if legit...at range gives me pause. That is how you get a big winter storm. The likelihood of somebody in the SE getting hammered is growing. Man this thing is rolling. Literally lol. 12z 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Carvers Gap Posted February 8, 2023 Author Share Posted February 8, 2023 The NAM at range has a biased of being amped. Word of caution there, and I know you all know that. That is for new folks. That could easily trend SE if it sobers up. But again, this is more of closing off vs just synoptically riding an inbound front. So, the NAM "could" be correct as the closing off point is not at 84, but earlier in the run. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Carvers Gap Posted February 8, 2023 Author Share Posted February 8, 2023 Also, downsloping along the western foothills is definitely a concern if cold air is not in place and is being manufactured. The 12z NAM shows that downsloping effect quite well. W NC is cold and E TN is in the mid 40s. Need this to hit at night. What is the timing on this? I haven't even looked. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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