Blizzard22 Posted February 6, 2023 Share Posted February 6, 2023 36 minutes ago, Carvers Gap said: And spring is also not on the Euro Weeklies. Around the 21st, it goes cold and doesn't move. Now, to be fair, we have seen it miss badly at this range already this winter. BUT, it fits with the MJO rotation that we are seeing. March looks nasty. By nasty are you saying March could feature a lot of cold, rainy days with highs in the 40s and 50s ? 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
fountainguy97 Posted February 6, 2023 Share Posted February 6, 2023 Some monumental changes with the 18z gfs regarding this weekend. the icon also has the bowling ball and it's even further south. This type of scenario could work for a much larger area than typical NW flow. 3 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PowellVolz Posted February 6, 2023 Share Posted February 6, 2023 All this warm weather has me considering a somewhat early application of pre-emergent on the yard. I just know if I do it, we will wind up with a bitterly cold March.I always apply mine the 2nd week of February. Poa annua is already showing up, day lilies have sprigs and Forsythia are starting to pop. I’m getting my pre down before the weekend . 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Carvers Gap Posted February 6, 2023 Author Share Posted February 6, 2023 1 hour ago, Blizzard22 said: By nasty are you saying March could feature a lot of cold, rainy days with highs in the 40s and 50s ? The full buffet...... 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Carvers Gap Posted February 6, 2023 Author Share Posted February 6, 2023 49 minutes ago, PowellVolz said: I always apply mine the 2nd week of February. Poa annua is already showing up, day lilies have sprigs and Forsythia are starting to pop. I’m getting my pre down before the weekend . You all are lawn care wizards....and that is a huge compliment. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Met1985 Posted February 7, 2023 Share Posted February 7, 2023 3 hours ago, Carvers Gap said: And spring is also not on the Euro Weeklies. Around the 21st, it goes cold and doesn't move. Now, to be fair, we have seen it miss badly at this range already this winter. BUT, it fits with the MJO rotation that we are seeing. March looks nasty. Yeah this would fit in nicely for the mjo and the SSW coming in the next week. It probably will be right because we are supposed to be headed into warm months. Just go ahead and mess up spring as well lol. 2 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Itryatgolf70 Posted February 7, 2023 Share Posted February 7, 2023 If the SSW, if one does happen, doesn't propagate to the troposphere, don't think most would want to see it because most likely delaying spring. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Carvers Gap Posted February 7, 2023 Author Share Posted February 7, 2023 1 hour ago, Met1985 said: Yeah this would fit in nicely for the mjo and the SSW coming in the next week. It probably will be right because we are supposed to be headed into warm months. Just go ahead and mess up spring as well lol. In the same way that Nina winters find ways not to snow during Jan/Feb....Nino springs find ways not be warm until mid-late May. 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Carvers Gap Posted February 7, 2023 Author Share Posted February 7, 2023 El Nino winters = winter begins about the time we are ready for spring............just a preview of next winter. 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Holston_River_Rambler Posted February 7, 2023 Share Posted February 7, 2023 Ye olden 6z GFS looked interesting for higher elevations this weekend Seemed like that was a pretty far jump southwest for the upper low 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Holston_River_Rambler Posted February 7, 2023 Share Posted February 7, 2023 How long has it been since we've had a system so strong its dynamics drove a change from rain to snow? I'm not talking about one of the "wave rides an arctic front" scenarios we've done pretty well with lately. I mean a big old bowling ball upper low rippin' fatties. 10 or 20 years? I'd love to chase some rate driven snow this weekend across the upper plateau. 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Carvers Gap Posted February 7, 2023 Author Share Posted February 7, 2023 Probably 2013 for rate driven snow IMBY. It caught our schools system by surprise. We had busses stuck everywhere. Yes, crazy run of the 6z GFS. It looked a bit wonky at the surface as it tried to recurve near Hatteras. At 500, it looks clean but is a big break from continuity. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
fountainguy97 Posted February 7, 2023 Share Posted February 7, 2023 Man what a borderline event in the 6z gfs. These "make its own cold" setups are nearly impossible to pull off. the gfs has been accelerating the northern piece which has allowed our southern to cutoff. Not much support but UK, Icon have a bowling ball. And the euro shifted that way at 0z. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PowellVolz Posted February 7, 2023 Share Posted February 7, 2023 How long has it been since we've had a system so strong its dynamics drove a change from rain to snow? I'm not talking about one of the "wave rides an arctic front" scenarios we've done pretty well with lately. I mean a big old bowling ball upper low rippin' fatties. 10 or 20 years? I'd love to chase some rate driven snow this weekend across the upper plateau. @Carvers Gap might be right about 2013. I can’t remember exactly what year but it was definitely before the 2013/14 winter because thats when I bought my Jeep and I didn’t have it for this event. Anyway…. I remember we were kinda expecting a rain to snow but no one knew how much. It changed over around 12:30-1 PM and it snowed about 4-5” in 2 hours right over Knoxville. They let us go home at 3pm from work. Normally a 30min drive took me 3 1/2 hours. The roads in Knoxville was a compacted slop but pretty slick. When I got to Black Oak Ridge between Ft City and Halls, the slop had frozen and even 4x4’s where struggling. This other event didn’t really do much in the valley but I remember another ULL got the mountains, NC and SC pretty good. The reason I remember it is because it hit in later October, first of November when Tennessee was playing at South Carolina. Josh Dobbs was a sophomore I believe. The mountains did really well but even Columbia SC picked up 3-5” that Saturday. @Carvers Gap probably remembers the year. . 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PowellVolz Posted February 7, 2023 Share Posted February 7, 2023 You all are lawn care wizards....and that is a huge compliment. I’ve got a few plants/shrubs I’m worried about. Most of my shrubs go dormant but my Otto Lukyen’s and Big Blue Liriope do not look good at all. The rest of my evergreens look fine. Fescue is really coming in now. . Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
fountainguy97 Posted February 7, 2023 Share Posted February 7, 2023 42 minutes ago, PowellVolz said: @Carvers Gap might be right about 2013. I can’t remember exactly what year but it was definitely before the 2013/14 winter because thats when I bought my Jeep and I didn’t have it for this event. Anyway…. I remember we were kinda expecting a rain to snow but no one knew how much. It changed over around 12:30-1 PM and it snowed about 4-5” in 2 hours right over Knoxville. They let us go home at 3pm from work. Normally a 30min drive took me 3 1/2 hours. The roads in Knoxville was a compacted slop but pretty slick. When I got to Black Oak Ridge between Ft City and Halls, the slop had frozen and even 4x4’s where struggling. This other event didn’t really do much in the valley but I remember another ULL got the mountains, NC and SC pretty good. The reason I remember it is because it hit in later October, first of November when Tennessee was playing at South Carolina. Josh Dobbs was a sophomore I believe. The mountains did really well but even Columbia SC picked up 3-5” that Saturday. @Carvers Gap probably remembers the year. . Oct31-nov1 2014. Different trajectory but same idea. Bowling ball with extremely marginal temps. Probably was a paste bomb. probably more robust than this will be. 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
fountainguy97 Posted February 7, 2023 Share Posted February 7, 2023 The major checkpoint for me for a threat is getting the energy onshore over the US. Our energy will be partially onshore by 00z tonight and fully onshore by 12z runs tomorrow. Typically the 24hr period leading up to full onshore sampling is when we see the "snap" to a more uniform idea on modeling. That period starts in just a few hours. We should know rather soon if this is legit. Euro took another step for more separation at 06z this morning. Icon is heavily separated and the UK is a nice mountain snow like the GFS. This has more support than just the GFS model. 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dwagner88 Posted February 7, 2023 Share Posted February 7, 2023 3 hours ago, Holston_River_Rambler said: How long has it been since we've had a system so strong its dynamics drove a change from rain to snow? I'm not talking about one of the "wave rides an arctic front" scenarios we've done pretty well with lately. I mean a big old bowling ball upper low rippin' fatties. 10 or 20 years? I'd love to chase some rate driven snow this weekend across the upper plateau. January 2009. We were predicted for rain. Rain quickly changed to snow. MRX was so behind the curve on the event that they actually issued a winter storm warning for every county in the CWA except Hamilton county. Despite the fact that Hamilton county already had 3-5" on the ground and the roads. I guess for me you can also count Feb 12 2014. We started as snow, got a couple of inches, changed to rain during the day, then changed back to snow and wound up with over 10". Downtown barely got anything with that one though. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Coach B Posted February 7, 2023 Share Posted February 7, 2023 4 hours ago, Holston_River_Rambler said: How long has it been since we've had a system so strong its dynamics drove a change from rain to snow? I'm not talking about one of the "wave rides an arctic front" scenarios we've done pretty well with lately. I mean a big old bowling ball upper low rippin' fatties. 10 or 20 years? March 1st, 2009 is the last biggie I remember. There were areas of 9-11 inches across southern middle Tennessee. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Carvers Gap Posted February 7, 2023 Author Share Posted February 7, 2023 Yep....modeling is hinting at phase 8 again(w/ a loop in that phase to boot). It looks like this initiates sometime between Feb 17-21. I would think that is a window(or beginning of a window) for yet another round of wintry temps/precip for our forum area. 2 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Carvers Gap Posted February 7, 2023 Author Share Posted February 7, 2023 4 hours ago, PowellVolz said: @Carvers Gap might be right about 2013. I can’t remember exactly what year but it was definitely before the 2013/14 winter because thats when I bought my Jeep and I didn’t have it for this event. Anyway…. I remember we were kinda expecting a rain to snow but no one knew how much. It changed over around 12:30-1 PM and it snowed about 4-5” in 2 hours right over Knoxville. They let us go home at 3pm from work. Normally a 30min drive took me 3 1/2 hours. The roads in Knoxville was a compacted slop but pretty slick. When I got to Black Oak Ridge between Ft City and Halls, the slop had frozen and even 4x4’s where struggling. This other event didn’t really do much in the valley but I remember another ULL got the mountains, NC and SC pretty good. The reason I remember it is because it hit in later October, first of November when Tennessee was playing at South Carolina. Josh Dobbs was a sophomore I believe. The mountains did really well but even Columbia SC picked up 3-5” that Saturday. @Carvers Gap probably remembers the year. . LOL. So my youngest daughter was born in Jan of 2013. We took her home from the hospital and just about couldn't get into the neighborhood as rain changed to snow. It was about a seven mile drive. We left the hospital while it as raining and spitting snow. As we got her to the door, the sky flashed and it began to thunder as the snow just poured down. I had left sub plans left at school, but didn't put the early dismissal procedures in the folder as I did not expect this! I quickly called school to make sure the sub had some guidance. Busses were stuck on Skyland Drive here in town. It was a glorious mess. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Carvers Gap Posted February 7, 2023 Author Share Posted February 7, 2023 We may be stealing some Nino climatology here at the end of winter. When I look at modeling, there is a tendency for weakness in heights over the SE. It takes a couple of systems cutting to our west, but the boundary (at times in the LR) presses Southeast of us. Fountain has some great posts above. That set-up is likely due in part to Nino climatology. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Carvers Gap Posted February 7, 2023 Author Share Posted February 7, 2023 I think there is a very real chance that MBY may get more snow after Feb18th than it did prior to that. 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Carvers Gap Posted February 7, 2023 Author Share Posted February 7, 2023 On the super long range front, I have been trying to find a model by week 4 which doesn't have a strong -NAO. That is likely the strat warm stuff kicking in. Still a long way out there, and modeling has missed on this during Jan...but there it is. I said this yesterday, I still don't see Spring on modeling yet. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
fountainguy97 Posted February 7, 2023 Share Posted February 7, 2023 Some great trends at 12z for some snow across the Southeast. Not so much our neck of the woods but the crew over in the Carolinas are absolutely snow starved haha. Maybe they can reel one in. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Blizzard22 Posted February 7, 2023 Share Posted February 7, 2023 1 hour ago, Carvers Gap said: I think there is a very real chance that MBY may get more snow after Feb18th than it did prior to that. The only bad thing is that snow in Late Feb and March tends to melt very fast. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Holston_River_Rambler Posted February 7, 2023 Share Posted February 7, 2023 I bet in next few days we get a wild NAMing of locations above 3000'. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Carvers Gap Posted February 7, 2023 Author Share Posted February 7, 2023 59 minutes ago, Blizzard22 said: The only bad thing is that snow in Late Feb and March tends to melt very fast. No doubt about that. Higher sun angles will do that. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Vol Man Posted February 7, 2023 Share Posted February 7, 2023 3 hours ago, Carvers Gap said: LOL. So my youngest daughter was born in Jan of 2013. We took her home from the hospital and just about couldn't get into the neighborhood as rain changed to snow. It was about a seven mile drive. We left the hospital while it as raining and spitting snow. As we got her to the door, the sky flashed and it began to thunder as the snow just poured down. I had left sub plans left at school, but didn't put the early dismissal procedures in the folder as I did not expect this! I quickly called school to make sure the sub had some guidance. Busses were stuck on Skyland Drive here in town. It was a glorious mess. Hey Carver, My normal 10 minute trip home to Indian Springs that afternoon took almost 4 hours. I had stopped off at Food City on Eastman Road as the rain had just changed over...big mistake. These pictures are going up Chestnut Ridge about 2 miles from FC. By the way, I grew up on Skyland...back in the day, there were times where that little extra elevation really helped. 7 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Carvers Gap Posted February 7, 2023 Author Share Posted February 7, 2023 That is awesome VolMan! Great photos! As for the 18z GFS, is it going to flirt with a Miller A? 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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