Carvers Gap Posted February 4, 2023 Author Share Posted February 4, 2023 14 hours ago, fountainguy97 said: Good bit of consistency today for the 180-200hr event. Likely another backside NW event setup... wish we could get one of these to our south before spring. 6z GFS, 0z Euro, and 0z CMC have some sort of winter wx event (light) for next weekend. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
*Flash* Posted February 4, 2023 Share Posted February 4, 2023 Just waking up. Regardless of what happens, that's some healthy digging/trough action. Interesting this is occurring right as the +PNA and +NAO starts to dip. Why do I have this sick feeling the same places that cashed in January 24-25 will score again? 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
matt9697 Posted February 4, 2023 Share Posted February 4, 2023 We could use an old fashioned ❄ 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
matt9697 Posted February 4, 2023 Share Posted February 4, 2023 Noon run GFS looking good, for what its worth. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jaxjagman Posted February 4, 2023 Share Posted February 4, 2023 there was a trough going through East Asia a couple days ago,i wouldn't be surprised if the EPS is to slow 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
*Flash* Posted February 4, 2023 Share Posted February 4, 2023 12z GFS giveth, 18z GFS taketh away. Probably a more realistic look for next weekend. Still early. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Holston_River_Rambler Posted February 5, 2023 Share Posted February 5, 2023 In terms of the next couple of weeks (not in reference to whatever happens next weekend) for you model junkies like me I think we're starting to see the long foretold Feb. SE ridge flex in modeling. I think we start to see some interesting looks show up again in LR OP runs around around the 20th. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Carvers Gap Posted February 5, 2023 Author Share Posted February 5, 2023 The MJO(which has been stalled in 3....and is still stalled in 3) is set to rapidly travers the warm phases. It then could possibly be in phase 8 as soon as the 19th if the Euro is correct or a week later if the GEFS/CFS is correct. Not sure I buy the slow traverse, but that is what is being portrayed this morning. Meanwhile, the mid-month warm-up still appears on tap w/ cold fronts slicing through the warm air mass at regular intervals. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Matthew70 Posted February 5, 2023 Share Posted February 5, 2023 44 minutes ago, Carvers Gap said: The MJO(which has been stalled in 3....and is still stalled in 3) is set to rapidly travers the warm phases. It then could possibly be in phase 8 as soon as the 19th if the Euro is correct or a week later if the GEFS/CFS is correct. Not sure I buy the slow traverse, but that is what is being portrayed this morning. Meanwhile, the mid-month warm-up still appears on tap w/ cold fronts slicing through the warm air mass at regular intervals. Meaning somewhere from gulf coast to here could be in for severe wx episodes. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Carvers Gap Posted February 5, 2023 Author Share Posted February 5, 2023 23 minutes ago, Matthew70 said: Meaning somewhere from gulf coast to here could be in for severe wx episodes. Tough to know. I don’t track severe wx. Anytime there is a lot of warm air and cold air though.....fireworks are possible. The developing Nino likely dampens severe season...but outbreaks are always possible. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
fountainguy97 Posted February 5, 2023 Share Posted February 5, 2023 Man. Another mostly dry and cool frontal passage in the works on the heels of the mid-week system. Just can't get anything to line up this winter. Everything is either too far west or in this case too far east. With winter on the way out I will be looking forward to these warmer days ahead! 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jaxjagman Posted February 5, 2023 Share Posted February 5, 2023 MJO has been consistent still since fall,seems more than likely later on we will see systems again cutting up through the Ozarks or Tenn every 3-4 days depending on where any ridge sets up but most of these will be +ve tilt and move out fast.Its what weve seen since fall it seems 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jaxjagman Posted February 5, 2023 Share Posted February 5, 2023 But i wouldnt be surprised if some boundary gets hung out somewhere along us in future model runs,you'll see some severe risk like Houston said in Dixie again,not sure for us but as the days get longer 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jaxjagman Posted February 5, 2023 Share Posted February 5, 2023 MJO just getting into the WH this time of year also dont seem very kind,its usually just dry until it gets into the WH and Africa,thats where you guys in the east could cash in if the signal stays coherent 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jaxjagman Posted February 5, 2023 Share Posted February 5, 2023 Euro site seems to be down,seems like a outlier right now 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jaxjagman Posted February 5, 2023 Share Posted February 5, 2023 Almost look like the GFS wants to obliterate the PV dont it? 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Met1985 Posted February 5, 2023 Share Posted February 5, 2023 2 hours ago, jaxjagman said: Almost look like the GFS wants to obliterate the PV dont it? Yeah the gfs has been showing a major strat warming for several days. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jaxjagman Posted February 5, 2023 Share Posted February 5, 2023 50 minutes ago, Met1985 said: Yeah the gfs has been showing a major strat warming for several days. Yeah it seems to be headed towards a major SSWE,but it still looks to be a outlier right now,no clue,sometimes the GFS wins..lol 2 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Met1985 Posted February 5, 2023 Share Posted February 5, 2023 Just now, jaxjagman said: Yeah it seems to be headed towards a major SSWE,but it still looks to be a outlier right now,no clue,sometimes the GFS wins..lol Yeah @GaWx has had a lot of great information on this recently. You should check it out in the SE forum. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Carvers Gap Posted February 6, 2023 Author Share Posted February 6, 2023 Next window after the 11th appears to be the 18th-21st. That is based on ensembles, not operationals. Then, the late month/early March cold shot is probably in the works. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Daniel Boone Posted February 6, 2023 Share Posted February 6, 2023 Truckee s getting it again ! http://tahoetopia.com/webcam/downtown-truckee 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Carvers Gap Posted February 6, 2023 Author Share Posted February 6, 2023 37 minutes ago, Daniel Boone said: Truckee s getting it again ! http://tahoetopia.com/webcam/downtown-truckee Going to be a rough next few winters after this exceptional winter out there....just knee high to a giraffe. Here is my webcam go-to.... http://www.camviewing.com/mosaic/ 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Carvers Gap Posted February 6, 2023 Author Share Posted February 6, 2023 Farily substantial differences between the 0z GEPS/EPS vs GEFS. The 0z GEPS/EPS produce a fairly large trough around the 18th. I think differences in the MJO are likely the root of this. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Carvers Gap Posted February 6, 2023 Author Share Posted February 6, 2023 It is going to feel like spring this week. After the miserable, cold, drizzly weather of last week, the sun feels awesome! That said, I do not yet see spring on modeling. My guess is that it arrives later in March, but the cold tries to hang on as Nino climatology fully takes over. 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
matt9697 Posted February 6, 2023 Share Posted February 6, 2023 2 hours ago, Carvers Gap said: It is going to feel like spring this week. After the miserable, cold, drizzly weather of last week, the sun feels awesome! That said, I do not yet see spring on modeling. My guess is that it arrives later in March, but the cold tries to hang on as Nino climatology fully takes over. Yea, I think that I will be ready for Spring in a couple weeks for sure 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Carvers Gap Posted February 6, 2023 Author Share Posted February 6, 2023 The 12z GFS follows suit with my earlier comment....spring is going to have to wait. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
waltrip Posted February 6, 2023 Share Posted February 6, 2023 Carver, thanks for the link to the web cams! I know it's a little off topic, but that is an awesome link. I was able to go out to Yellowstone National Park and Glacier National Park last June. Just an incredible part of the world to see with your own eyes. Would love to live out there one day. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dwagner88 Posted February 6, 2023 Share Posted February 6, 2023 All this warm weather has me considering a somewhat early application of pre-emergent on the yard. I just know if I do it, we will wind up with a bitterly cold March. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Carvers Gap Posted February 6, 2023 Author Share Posted February 6, 2023 And spring is also not on the Euro Weeklies. Around the 21st, it goes cold and doesn't move. Now, to be fair, we have seen it miss badly at this range already this winter. BUT, it fits with the MJO rotation that we are seeing. March looks nasty. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Carvers Gap Posted February 6, 2023 Author Share Posted February 6, 2023 1 hour ago, waltrip said: Carver, thanks for the link to the web cams! I know it's a little off topic, but that is an awesome link. I was able to go out to Yellowstone National Park and Glacier National Park last June. Just an incredible part of the world to see with your own eyes. Would love to live out there one day. Yeah, that guy runs a great page. He runs StarValleyWx in western WY. It is just a small webpage outfit. I believe he used to work at the Sever Wx Storm Center in Oklahoma. He runs a great website. His webcams are awesome. I am definitely a winter wx junkie! I loosely track winter storms out there just for fun(and I don't post about those). Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Recommended Posts
Create an account or sign in to comment
You need to be a member in order to leave a comment
Create an account
Sign up for a new account in our community. It's easy!
Register a new accountSign in
Already have an account? Sign in here.
Sign In Now