Holston_River_Rambler Posted February 1, 2023 Share Posted February 1, 2023 GFS is at it again. : nothing to get too excited about just yet, still a long ways out. That would be a full split at 10mb though. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Carvers Gap Posted February 1, 2023 Author Share Posted February 1, 2023 17 minutes ago, Holston_River_Rambler said: GFS is at it again. : nothing to get too excited about just yet, still a long ways out. That would be a full split at 10mb though. JB mentioned it yesterday. He said it reminded him of 2018. Man, nothing like a good strat split to end the month and extend winter into April. LOL. I am going to put up my hoop house this week just so I can hear the strat crackle. 1 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Carvers Gap Posted February 1, 2023 Author Share Posted February 1, 2023 18z GFS is sending my warmup straight to.....Cuba. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Matthew70 Posted February 1, 2023 Share Posted February 1, 2023 27 minutes ago, Carvers Gap said: 18z GFS is sending my warmup straight to.....Cuba. Happy hour GFS must be taking advantage of the 2 for the price of 1 drinks. 2 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
matt9697 Posted February 1, 2023 Share Posted February 1, 2023 1 hour ago, Carvers Gap said: 18z GFS is sending my warmup straight to.....Cuba. Yea looks like area wide we may not be done with winter 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Carvers Gap Posted February 2, 2023 Author Share Posted February 2, 2023 48 minutes ago, matt9697 said: Yea looks like area wide we may not be done with winter It is going to likely get warm - almost a certainty. The trick is can we score a snowfall during a warm-up. February is the kind of month where that can happen. Absolutely no promises on my part...this is a stretch, but still interesting. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Carvers Gap Posted February 2, 2023 Author Share Posted February 2, 2023 1 hour ago, Matthew70 said: Happy hour GFS must be taking advantage of the 2 for the price of 1 drinks. Yeah, that snow storm in the LR is hurting my warm-up. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Holston_River_Rambler Posted February 2, 2023 Share Posted February 2, 2023 No split on the GFS strat this AM, but a whale of a warming. I hate to say it for our spring, but I think its coming this time. The last attempt weakened it pretty good at 10mb. Here is the 3D vortex back in December: Here is what it looks like now: The trouble with all this is that the last attempt also seems to have strengthened it in the lower levels. Note the sort of flip that has happened with the 3D vortex. In Dec it was larger up top and smaller on the bottom. Now that has reversed. So if a SSW happens with what the GFS is depicting, it would likely be a top down type that would take 3 weeks or so to have much effect on us. The "we're due" weenie index would suggest one of these should help us after the past 3 didn't. The cynical Holston mind would suggest "at least this might keep us out of a bad la Nina severe season, lol. 3 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Holston_River_Rambler Posted February 2, 2023 Share Posted February 2, 2023 The above temp anomaly was from 6z today. Looking back at 0z, we still had a split depicted again at 50 and 10 mb, so the 3D vortex rendering should look pretty cool tomorrow. That site updates once a day for the 3D vortex with the previous day's oz data. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
*Flash* Posted February 2, 2023 Share Posted February 2, 2023 I've been so focused on this week's weather, I haven't been paying attention to the long-term. Seems like we're set for a warm rest of the month before one last winter hurrah just in time for spring? 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Carvers Gap Posted February 2, 2023 Author Share Posted February 2, 2023 12 minutes ago, *Flash* said: I've been so focused on this week's weather, I haven't been paying attention to the long-term. Seems like we're set for a warm rest of the month before one last winter hurrah just in time for spring? That sound about right. I am watching the timeframe of Feb11-14 as a cold front(timing TBD) is rolling under that big ridge. It would be thread the needle, but is the only game in town after the ice storm. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Holston_River_Rambler Posted February 3, 2023 Share Posted February 3, 2023 Euro trying to make clippers great again for Middle TN overnight: Some EPS support (like 5/6 members, which is more than I would have expected for such a little system) 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Holston_River_Rambler Posted February 3, 2023 Share Posted February 3, 2023 23 hours ago, Holston_River_Rambler said: The above temp anomaly was from 6z today. Looking back at 0z, we still had a split depicted again at 50 and 10 mb, so the 3D vortex rendering should look pretty cool tomorrow. That site updates once a day for the 3D vortex with the previous day's oz data. Here is the wacky depiction from Feb 2 0z run: 3 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Carvers Gap Posted February 3, 2023 Author Share Posted February 3, 2023 It has been a while since the end of Feb and beginning of March were decent. Kind of an MJO nugget this AM, many models are trying to race through warm phases at low amplitude and cut quickly to 7/8. Even the 6z GEFS is not overly warm after d10(big warmup prior to that). Maybe this is the year where we see 1-2 more windows in the valleys after Feb 20? For your troubles.... 5 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Carvers Gap Posted February 3, 2023 Author Share Posted February 3, 2023 It is only 198 hours out there, and it is on the GFS....but that is the general idea. LOL. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Carvers Gap Posted February 3, 2023 Author Share Posted February 3, 2023 The 12z CMC has a similar set-up but phases less....but not a terrible look either. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Carvers Gap Posted February 3, 2023 Author Share Posted February 3, 2023 WARNING: GFS at range. The 12z run wasn't terrible. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Carvers Gap Posted February 3, 2023 Author Share Posted February 3, 2023 Honestly, when I envisioned this winter...that 12z GFS run is how I envisioned it(maybe a bit more compressed in terms of frequency). Lots of warmth, but intrusions of cold w/ some chances if timing works. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Daniel Boone Posted February 3, 2023 Share Posted February 3, 2023 Mid February has always been a prime time for snowstorms in our area. Dkw, probably just luck of the draw over a climatological period. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Carvers Gap Posted February 3, 2023 Author Share Posted February 3, 2023 4 hours ago, Daniel Boone said: Mid February has always been a prime time for snowstorms in our area. Dkw, probably just luck of the draw over a climatological period. Starting to see ensembles push back on the SER around the 20th. If that is the case, this month will not be as bad as I originally though. We are going to have some very warm days, but 12z ensembles are hinting that could be short-lived (MJO plots as well). 3 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Daniel Boone Posted February 3, 2023 Share Posted February 3, 2023 17 minutes ago, Carvers Gap said: Starting to see ensembles push back on the SER around the 20th. If that is the case, this month will not be as bad as I originally though. We are going to have some very warm days, but 12z ensembles are hinting that could be short-lived (MJO plots as well). Yeah, hopefully that'll be the case. If blocking can set up during the favorable MJO Phases I think it will pay off this time. Some signs of this happening along with the PNA cooperating. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jaxjagman Posted February 3, 2023 Share Posted February 3, 2023 12 minutes ago, Carvers Gap said: Starting to see ensembles push back on the SER around the 20th. If that is the case, this month will not be as bad as I originally though. We are going to have some very warm days, but 12z ensembles are hinting that could be short-lived (MJO plots as well). Euro has the MJO getting into the WH,Phase 7 out of the COD around the Mid month,it looks much better than what it has been showing.Crazy as it sounds the the Euro is playing catch up to the GEFS 5 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowmaker Posted February 3, 2023 Share Posted February 3, 2023 1 minute ago, jaxjagman said: Euro has the MJO getting into the WH,Phase 7 out of the COD around the Mid month,it looks much better than what it has been showing.Crazy as it sounds the the Euro is playing catch up to the GEFS The euro seems to be playing catch-up all the way around lately. At least that is what is has seemed like lately. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Daniel Boone Posted February 3, 2023 Share Posted February 3, 2023 I'm currently up in NE WVA , just north of Winchester VA and it is brutal due to winds gusting up to 40 MPH! Temps mid 20's ,WC's single digits. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jaxjagman Posted February 3, 2023 Share Posted February 3, 2023 Pattern since fall has been consistent with the MJO and right now i wouldnt be suprised if this looks better in the next few days,but we are going to warm up some upcoming 2 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Carvers Gap Posted February 3, 2023 Author Share Posted February 3, 2023 18z GFS agains looks decent at 180. That is the only analysis I am giving at this range. LOL. 1 6 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jaxjagman Posted February 3, 2023 Share Posted February 3, 2023 GEFS wants to kill severe spring possibly 3 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jaxjagman Posted February 3, 2023 Share Posted February 3, 2023 Outbreak in 2011 we didnt have to worry about the SPV 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
fountainguy97 Posted February 3, 2023 Share Posted February 3, 2023 Good bit of consistency today for the 180-200hr event. Likely another backside NW event setup... wish we could get one of these to our south before spring. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Itryatgolf70 Posted February 4, 2023 Share Posted February 4, 2023 4 hours ago, jaxjagman said: Outbreak in 2011 we didnt have to worry about the SPV Only concern I have is we will probably get a SSW but if it happens later rather than sooner, cold air will still be tough due to too late in season and will limit severe weather chances also. BTW, the ice event was fun, but my area missed out on most of it unfortunately 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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