February 2023 Medium/Long Range Pattern Discussion Thread.....Torch or Tundra???

[jaxjagman]

Long range looks pretty crappy,right now.Models seem to want to build the Upper level ridge into South Korea/Japan into the 2nd week of Feb,this could very well build the Mid Level ridge(SER) the middle of Feb, maybe it will change but as we head into mid Feb that's not a cold look.

[Matthew70]

8 minutes ago, jaxjagman said:

Long range looks pretty crappy,right now.Models seem to want to build the Upper level ridge into South Korea/Japan into the 2nd week of Feb,this could very well build the Mid Level ridge(SER) the middle of Feb, maybe it will change but as we head into mid Feb that's not a cold look.

With soccer going full swing starting this weekend.  I would take a warm spring. I will definitely be mowing my yard the next couple weeks.  Green & growing. 

[Carvers Gap]

The promised mid-month warm-up is real.  Still a decent signal we rotate right back into 8-1-2 at the end of the month and for early March.  I need to go read Cosgrove from last night....be right back.  Yep, the warm-up fits with his comments.

[Carvers Gap]

47 minutes ago, Matthew70 said:

With soccer going full swing starting this weekend.  I would take a warm spring. I will definitely be mowing my yard the next couple weeks.  Green & growing. 

I put my seed order in...and am going to put-up my small hoop house.  I can promise you all, when the hoop house goes up....it is going to snow.  

[*Flash*]

So if I follow correctly, a mid-February warm-up is likely. But it's not a #wintercancel situation, correct? 

[Carvers Gap]

20 minutes ago, *Flash* said:

So if I follow correctly, a mid-February warm-up is likely. But it's not a #wintercancel situation, correct? 

Well, eventually we run out of room as it flips to met spring during March.  With changing wavelengths and a tendency for lows to go south of us right now on modeling, I think we have some chances down the road.  Looks like this week could be a busy week anyway for everyone from the Plateau westward.  The MJO favors one more rotation through cold phases later this month. I would think that is likely the last window barring a one-off spring storm which could happen.  But trust me, when this hoop house goes up this week or next...it is going to snow IMBY sooner than later.  It is more dependable than thunder in the mountains.

[Matthew70]

For me once soccer goes full swing I’m ready for spring.  The way the butter cups & grass is greening up.  I would say winter is pretty much done. Especially with the warmer temps coming next week. 60’s+. Spring will be showing signs all over. 

[Carvers Gap]

20 minutes ago, Matthew70 said:

For me once soccer goes full swing I’m ready for spring.  The way the butter cups & grass is greening up.  I would say winter is pretty much done. Especially with the warmer temps coming next week. 60’s+. Spring will be showing signs all over. 

It coincides with the MJO going 4-6.  The bigger issue is that it continues back into cold phases.  So, false spring...and then multiple freezes and winter like temps.   We really look for spring when the PV begins to tighten up and retract the jet.  I don’t see that yet as the West is still cold.  As Cosgrove notes, one big storm buckling that jet would send it later this month.  

[Carvers Gap]

23 minutes ago, Matthew70 said:

For me once soccer goes full swing I’m ready for spring.  The way the butter cups & grass is greening up.  I would say winter is pretty much done. Especially with the warmer temps coming next week. 60’s+. Spring will be showing signs all over. 

In addition to soccer...track and baseball could well suffer.  Last year, spring was super late.  I had stuff in my garden that was 2-3 weeks later than normal in terms of production.  I want winter out of here come April, and that includes freezes.  Frosts are no problem.  Ground temps are the issue with late springs. 

[jaxjagman]

58 minutes ago, *Flash* said:

So if I follow correctly, a mid-February warm-up is likely. But it's not a #wintercancel situation, correct? 

Pattern looks more severe than cold as we get into deep Feb,just my two cents,if this was Cane season we'd probably be looking at tropical genesis some where

[matt9697]

So what are the chances we break the crap winter pattern we have been in the last few years next winter??

[Carvers Gap]

6 minutes ago, matt9697 said:

So what are the chances we break the crap winter pattern we have been in the last few years next winter??

If we go super Nino....very low chances and worse than this year.  It will depend on the strength of the El Nino.  We need it week.  As Boone noted, strong signals for either ENSO are no good here.  One thing which is in our favor will be the likely downturn of the QBO index.  I think the La Nina will probably reset the gradient in the Pacific.  We want the difference between the Nino waters and the rest of the ocean to have a strong gradient.  We lacked that last time around.  With 3xLa Ninas, it should be much improved.  The scales for snow tip to eastward locals most likely.  

[Carvers Gap]

And you can just about take this to the bank, when I talk about a warm-up...the next run of the GFS is gonna send the entire Arctic house.  Behold the 18z GFS.

[matt9697]

1 minute ago, Carvers Gap said:

And you can just about take this to the bank, when I talk about a warm-up...the next run of the GFS is gonna send the entire Arctic house.  Behold the 18z GFS.

Yea i believe it

[Carvers Gap]

21 minutes ago, matt9697 said:

So what are the chances we break the crap winter pattern we have been in the last few years next winter??

I would add that Nino summers(edit) tend to favor fewer extended heat shots, cooler fall temps, warm Decembers, and  winter showing up sometime in Jan into Feb.  If forced I would write a forecast something like this.

Sept-Oct: Seasonal temps w/ early frosts

Nov: Seasonal to AN w/ maybe some early snow showers

December:  AN to much AN / Calls for winter cancel will be in full swing by Christmas

Jan: AN but w/ chances for snow as the month progresses...coastal regions will be in full meltdown

Feb:  Seasonal to BN / folks will be asking where spring is?...coastal regions will celebrate their patience in waiting for the snow

Snow(always a crapshoot):  Mountains (AN), Plateau (normal), E TN normal to slightly below(much below if super Nino), middle and west TN (below normal)

Precip:  Build an ark

***This is going to change.  If super Nino...AN temps across the board and only the mountains normal to above for snow***

[PowellVolz]

So if I follow correctly, a mid-February warm-up is likely. But it's not a #wintercancel situation, correct? 

For the valley(outside of elevation) our climatology for cold and snow is from Jan 15th through Feb 15th. During this time we want the pattern on our side for our best opportunity to see some snow. We knew going into this winter that the overall pattern didn’t look good for us but it really hurts our chances when you have above average temps during our best chance for winter weather. That being said, several of our biggest snow in and around Knoxville came outside of our winter climo.


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[Carvers Gap]

3 minutes ago, PowellVolz said:

For ETn (outside of elevation) our climatology for cold and snow is from Jan 15th through Feb 15th. During this time we want the pattern on our side for our best opportunity to see some snow. We knew going into this winter that the overall pattern didn’t look good for us but it really hurts our chances when you have above average temps during our best chance for winter weather. That being said, several of our biggest snow in and around Knoxville came outside of our winter climo.


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Just to add, NE TN climo goes to about the first week of March...then drops quickly.   

[PowellVolz]

If we go super Nino....very low chances and worse than this year.  It will depend on the strength of the El Nino.  We need it week.  As Boone noted, strong signals for either ENSO are no good here.  One thing which is in our favor will be the likely downturn of the QBO index.  I think the La Nina will probably reset the gradient in the Pacific.  We want the difference between the Nino waters and the rest of the ocean to have a strong gradient.  We lacked that last time around.  With 3xLa Ninas, it should be much improved.  The scales for snow tip to eastward locals most likely.  

Just the odds of 4x La Niña’s is very low. Although 3x’s is probably very low also.


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[Carvers Gap]

Just now, PowellVolz said:

Just the odds of 4x La Niña’s is very low. Although 3x’s is probably very low also.


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Yeah, agree.  I don't even know if there has been 4 straight Ninas since modern records have been kept.  I don't foresee a fourth consecutive La Nina.  I think its Nino...just the degree of the Nino is the question.

[Carvers Gap]

Backend winters due to El Nino are almost unbearable.  The pattern is usually terrible in December, and then it flips cold overnight sometime during January.  We have been spoiled by some nice, cold(sometimes snowy) recent Christmases.  If it is a super Nino, we will know by late summer or early fall I think.  And if it is a super Nino, I will be the first to put the brakes on an speculation of a cold winter.  The non-winters I have experienced are almost all exclusively super Nino winters.  I am talking no measurable snow, lots of rain, and mowing lawns all winter.  If the Nino is weak w/ the QBO dropping...that would be good.  

[PowellVolz]

Just to add, NE TN climo goes to about the first week of March...then drops quickly.   

You are correct and I should probably narrow down my “ETn” reference to a mention of valley locations. You might not realize this and maybe I’m in the minority here but IMO if you are not in the valley, I consider those areas grouped in with “elevation” areas. For me, anyone NE of Morristown is part of elevated forecasts even if you’re under 2k feet. John is in a similar situation. I’m 30 min north of Knoxville and the difference between the two can be significant in the winter. When atmospheric conditions are normal, I’m 7 to 10 degrees colder that downtown Knoxville. The difference between my location and yours is as significant if not more than mine to Knoxville. So that’s why I consider you all part of elevated forecast.


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[Carvers Gap]

2 minutes ago, PowellVolz said:

You are correct and I should probably narrow down my “ETn” reference to a mention of valley locations. You might not realize this and maybe I’m in the minority here but IMO if you are not in the valley, I consider those areas grouped in with “elevation” areas. For me, anyone NE of Morristown is part of elevated forecasts even if you’re under 2k feet. John is in a similar situation. I’m 30 min north of Knoxville and the difference between the two can be significant in the winter. When atmospheric conditions are normal, I’m 7 to 10 degrees colder that downtown Knoxville. The difference between my location and yours is as significant if not more than mine to Knoxville. So that’s why I consider you all part of elevated forecast.


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Great insight.  For sure, I lived about half my life in Knoxville.  I am getting ready to send one to UT next year.  I spent my entire childhood jealous of Crossville where it seemed to snow every day during the 70s.  Margie Ison is who I grew up watching on TV.  Here is what is crazy, my elevation(Kingsport) is only about 350' higher than downtown Knoxville.  Kingsport is right on the Holston River where JC and Bristol have more elevation.  Latitude is about my only advantage here re: spring.   Definitely when I lived in Knoxville, I always looked as TRI as a different climate.  The rain shadow up here is what is the worst.  Knoxville, ironically, has probably received more snow than I have during the past three years.  

[Daniel Boone]

1 hour ago, jaxjagman said:

Pattern looks more severe than cold as we get into deep Feb,just my two cents,if this was Cane season we'd probably be looking at tropical genesis some where

That'd be right up your alley man ,being a severe wx lover.

[PowellVolz]

Great insight.  For sure, I lived about half my life in Knoxville.  I am getting ready to send one to UT next year.  I spent my entire childhood jealous of Crossville where it seemed to snow every day during the 70s.  Margie Ison is who I grew up watching on TV.  Here is what is crazy, my elevation(Kingsport) is only about 350' higher than downtown Knoxville.  Kingsport is right on the Holston River where JC and Bristol have more elevation.  Latitude is about my only advantage here re: spring.   Definitely when I lived in Knoxville, I always looked as TRI as a different climate.  The rain shadow up here is what is the worst.  Knoxville, ironically, has probably received more snow than I have during the past three years.  

I completely forgot you were in Knoxville for a while. One day I’m going to retire to Wears Valley and buy a cabin up to at least 2k feet. Would love to get above the 2,500ft threshold though.


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[Carvers Gap]

10 minutes ago, PowellVolz said:

I completely forgot you were in Knoxville for a while. One day I’m going to retire to Wears Valley and buy a cabin up to at least 2k feet. Would love to get above the 2,500ft threshold though.


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I think I have been in Knoxville like 3x during the past 5 weeks!  LOL  I like Yassin's in West Knoxville.  Anyway, I look at real estate in Roan Mountain regularly.   That is where I want to be.  Wears Valley is awesome though, and I watch that market as well.  The Harmon's Den area(Beauty Spot) to Del Rio is a good area for snow.  I would like a higher elevation farm.  

[Carvers Gap]

So, two things I could have done to help us...predict a warm-up and put up the hoop house.  I have been looking at NA temp anomalies, and they are not warm for most of the GFS run.  The SER tries to flex per the MJO, but I do wonder if the cold is going to push into the east more than LR modeling is sensing.  A great example(no idea if it holds), is the GEFS finding another cold front around the 11th.  This is right around the warm-up I as talking about.  If it snows and is cold during this time...you can send me a Christmas card.  Run2RunChange from 12z to 18z.  

 

[Holston_River_Rambler]

3 hours ago, *Flash* said:

So if I follow correctly, a mid-February warm-up is likely. But it's not a #wintercancel situation, correct? 

I think our next monthly window starts the 28th. 

[PowellVolz]

I think I have been in Knoxville like 3x during the past 5 weeks!  LOL  I like Yassin's in West Knoxville.  Anyway, I look at real estate in Roan Mountain regularly.   That is where I want to be.  Wears Valley is awesome though, and I watch that market as well.  The Harmon's Den area(Beauty Spot) to Del Rio is a good area for snow.  I would like a higher elevation farm.  

A buddy of mine who does boiler work for me lives in Del Rio. That upslope event a few weeks back, he picked up about 8”. He’s around 4k feet.


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[*Flash*]

Thanks, all. I'm just curious per Jax's post (always solid by the way  ). I still have the 2005-06 winter analog in my mind though I'd have to check to see if there was an ENSO fade/transition that year. I believe February 2006 was amplified and has oscillating warm and cold stretches. I'm hoping if we get some mild intrusions, they are short-lived. Call me a little gunshine as I'm concerned this winter will make like 2016-17/2018-19/2019-20 which had bad January's AND February's for the midstate. Granted, for my locale, I probably should be more focused on the short term. Over/under is 0.19.5 of total ZR QPF for the week. I'll take the under for now. 

[Daniel Boone]

3 hours ago, Carvers Gap said:

Great insight.  For sure, I lived about half my life in Knoxville.  I am getting ready to send one to UT next year.  I spent my entire childhood jealous of Crossville where it seemed to snow every day during the 70s.  Margie Ison is who I grew up watching on TV.  Here is what is crazy, my elevation(Kingsport) is only about 350' higher than downtown Knoxville.  Kingsport is right on the Holston River where JC and Bristol have more elevation.  Latitude is about my only advantage here re: spring.   Definitely when I lived in Knoxville, I always looked as TRI as a different climate.  The rain shadow up here is what is the worst.  Knoxville, ironically, has probably received more snow than I have during the past three years.  

Margie was my favorite as a Teenager. She would cover a broad area. She was a very good TV Met.