Silas Lang Posted January 27, 2023 Share Posted January 27, 2023 1 hour ago, Carvers Gap said: For me, this winter is a carbon copy of the last three. Chances during December along w/ severe cold. Then, it was a battle from that point onward, but not without opportunities. I think for folks west of the Plateau, this winter (still been better than mine) has been similar to what E TN has seen for three straight seasons. That may be why E TN folks are somewhat apathetic to warmer temps and fewer chances. Yeah, for this reason I am about to punt next Tuesday's event for the East. West has the best chance of scoring! 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowmaker Posted January 27, 2023 Share Posted January 27, 2023 In my opinion which isn’t much, things right now look like west and middle Tennessee’s best chance at winter weather is Tuesday. After that rain Sunday it looks like it may be cold enough for a decent window of frozen on Tuesday. The next slug of moisture for Wednesday and wednesday night looks a little warm right now. Freezing line and frozen precip looks just north of Ohio River area. Of course with arctic boundaries at 4-5 days away things can still change. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Carvers Gap Posted January 27, 2023 Author Share Posted January 27, 2023 The 18z GFS held serve w/ a light band of snow w/ one of the waves(same one it has had for several runs). It is maybe 25mi south of where it was at 12z. Generally looks like a band of 1-3" of snow. If that falls during the day, probably a dusting. If it falls at night, accumulations are possible. I haven't looked at the time of day. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Carvers Gap Posted January 27, 2023 Author Share Posted January 27, 2023 There is a bit of a bonus window after 200+. All deterministic models now show the storm track south of us. I still think it is gonna get plenty warm mid month, but their might be couple of bonus days between Feb4-6. I don't think we hit the warm button until after the 10th, then we are gonna have some springlike temps before likely falling back to earth later in the month. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Carvers Gap Posted January 28, 2023 Author Share Posted January 28, 2023 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
matt9697 Posted January 28, 2023 Share Posted January 28, 2023 9 minutes ago, Carvers Gap said: Looking like a western TN even this go round - on a positive note, glad to see regular moisture though as we head into Spring. Last Spring and Summer were too too dry in Middle TN 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Carvers Gap Posted January 28, 2023 Author Share Posted January 28, 2023 1 hour ago, matt9697 said: Looking like a western TN even this go round - on a positive note, glad to see regular moisture though as we head into Spring. Last Spring and Summer were too too dry in Middle TN The 12z RGEM and 12z GFS both have an event west of the Plateau...that includes portions of middle TN and most of west TN. The RGEM is at range so TIFWIW. That would include multiple waves. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Carvers Gap Posted January 28, 2023 Author Share Posted January 28, 2023 The 12k NAM at range is also supportive...but it is at range. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
matt9697 Posted January 28, 2023 Share Posted January 28, 2023 47 minutes ago, Carvers Gap said: The 12z RGEM and 12z GFS both have an event west of the Plateau...that includes portions of middle TN and most of west TN. The RGEM is at range so TIFWIW. That would include multiple waves. Well thats interesting Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Carvers Gap Posted January 28, 2023 Author Share Posted January 28, 2023 Keeping an eye right around the 189hr mark. Long way out there, but modeling has been showing a slp scooting under us and up the coast. Only watching storm tracks for now. It is on both the 12z CMC and GFS. That GFS run had 7-15" of snow for the TRI area. OBVIOUSLY, that is way out there, but just something to watch. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Carvers Gap Posted January 28, 2023 Author Share Posted January 28, 2023 The good thing about the CMC/GFS runs is that they have room to come northwest. Just something to think about. Airmass is marginal, but quadrant(NW) matters. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PowellVolz Posted January 28, 2023 Share Posted January 28, 2023 Keeping an eye right around the 189hr mark. Long way out there, but modeling has been showing a slp scooting under us and up the coast. Only watching storm tracks for now. It is on both the 12z CMC and GFS. That GFS run had 7-15" of snow for the TRI area. OBVIOUSLY, that is way out there, but just something to watch.We wait all year for our month of winter climo and here we are, multiple systems with a workable track and we are almost 10° too warm. Seems like over the years we’ve only had a few overrunning events workout unless they track between the gulf coast and Cuba. . 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Carvers Gap Posted January 28, 2023 Author Share Posted January 28, 2023 1 hour ago, PowellVolz said: We wait all year for our month of winter climo and here we are, multiple systems with a workable track and we are almost 10° too warm. Seems like over the years we’ve only had a few overrunning events workout unless they track between the gulf coast and Cuba. . I would attribute much of that to a lack of -NAO winters and a multitude of La Ninas. We need that block to get overrunning in E TN. Now, Memphis and Nashville have scored reasonably well with over-running during the past two years. They broke the snow drought there. E TN has to have help from the Atlantic more times than not. In my seasonal forecast I had NE TN and the mountains BN due to Niña climatology. February is often a warm month even if the tracks are good. The last three winters have been carbon copies IMBY. Knoxville has more snow than I have had during the past three winters I think. Unfortunately, my season forecast (winter spec thread) is probably going to score well for the temp forecast. I simply used ENSO climatology. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Carvers Gap Posted January 28, 2023 Author Share Posted January 28, 2023 I am also keeping an eye around 138. If that wave comes north a bit per the 18z GFS, we could see some snow on that northern edge. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Carvers Gap Posted January 28, 2023 Author Share Posted January 28, 2023 Could be noise, but that is inside of 150. We will watch overnight trends. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
*Flash* Posted January 28, 2023 Share Posted January 28, 2023 I like the GFS' moxy of late. Just concerned the Euro may be painting a more realistic solution for middle TN. Not a huge ran of ice but I'll take a wintry mix over just plain ol' cold rain. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Daniel Boone Posted January 29, 2023 Share Posted January 29, 2023 1 hour ago, Carvers Gap said: I would attribute much of that to a lack of -NAO winters and a multitude of La Ninas. We need that block to get overrunning in E TN. Now, Memphis and Nashville have scored reasonably well with over-running during the past two years. They broke the snow drought there. E TN has to have help from the Atlantic more times than not. In my seasonal forecast I had NE TN and the mountains BN due to Niña climatology. February is often a warm month even if the tracks are good. The last three winters have been carbon copies IMBY. Knoxville has more snow than I have had during the past three winters I think. Unfortunately, my season forecast (winter spec thread) is probably going to score well for the temp forecast. I simply used ENSO climatology. We were fortunate here to do good Winter before last with right at 30 inches of Snow. Last year wasn't too good but, alright considering Nina and thanks to the March Storm. This Winter so far has only produced 2.4" Total. So, barring a major storm or something unforseen or unexpected, another below average Snow Season. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Daniel Boone Posted January 29, 2023 Share Posted January 29, 2023 3 hours ago, PowellVolz said: We wait all year for our month of winter climo and here we are, multiple systems with a workable track and we are almost 10° too warm. Seems like over the years we’ve only had a few overrunning events workout unless they track between the gulf coast and Cuba. . Yeah, it really is causing alot of anguish among Snow lovers . 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Carvers Gap Posted January 29, 2023 Author Share Posted January 29, 2023 I didn't realize the 18z NAM and RGEM were so aggressive w/ the freezing line. 0z NAM is a little more sobered up...but still. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Carvers Gap Posted January 29, 2023 Author Share Posted January 29, 2023 The 0z 3k NAM is also pressing the freezing line well into middle TN. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Carvers Gap Posted January 29, 2023 Author Share Posted January 29, 2023 If it is still there in the morning, it is probably time for a thread. I won't do it now since it is the NAM at medium range, but that is a decent low-end winter storm for middle and west TN. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowmaker Posted January 29, 2023 Share Posted January 29, 2023 It does seem like as we get closer models may be starting to pick up the cold a little better. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Carvers Gap Posted January 29, 2023 Author Share Posted January 29, 2023 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Carvers Gap Posted January 29, 2023 Author Share Posted January 29, 2023 0z NAM at range, but that seems a tic south. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Carvers Gap Posted January 29, 2023 Author Share Posted January 29, 2023 0z 12k NAM total ice accumulations. It could just be normal feedback on the short range models, but I thought it was worth a share. We will find out soon enough if they are in error. The 3k NAM is more like 0.1-0.2 ice accumulations w/ a lot of sleet. 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Carvers Gap Posted January 29, 2023 Author Share Posted January 29, 2023 FWIW, a Miller A is on both the CMC and GFS at 0z around 180. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jaxjagman Posted January 29, 2023 Share Posted January 29, 2023 Pretty much we've had a minor SSW but the next couple days the winds will pick up again,we never saw a complete reversal just a displaced Vortex ,still be interesting to see what happens later 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jaxjagman Posted January 29, 2023 Share Posted January 29, 2023 Trough going through East Asia again yesterday and today,same ole same ole.Teleconnection nothing but a -NAO/PNA,,cold chasing rain look,ready for severe if we even have one 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Holston_River_Rambler Posted January 29, 2023 Share Posted January 29, 2023 Looks like the NAM and RGEM ticked SE again with the freezing line. I'll start a thread for it. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Carvers Gap Posted January 29, 2023 Author Share Posted January 29, 2023 The 12z CMC and ICON are still keying on some energy around 160 which has the potential to be a Miller A. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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