Daniel Boone Posted February 9, 2023 Share Posted February 9, 2023 8 minutes ago, PowellVolz said: QPF is less on the Canadian so this isn’t a more rain less snow unless I’m looking at it wrong. . CMC looks a bit fouled in it's precip output. This thing should be juiced, imo . Strong Gulf RH injection, UL energy etc.. really can't see where it could be getting a decrease in Precip output.??. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PowellVolz Posted February 9, 2023 Share Posted February 9, 2023 CMC looks a bit fouled in it's precip output. This thing should be juiced, imo . Strong Gulf RH injection, UL energy etc.. really can't see where it could be getting a decrease in Precip output.??.I went back and looked again. Yeah the moisture doesn’t reflect the simulation IMO. Definitely should be more. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stovepipe Posted February 9, 2023 Share Posted February 9, 2023 The question I have is, when is John leaving to watch the super bowl in Chatty? I'm planning my snowman around that. 7 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Silas Lang Posted February 9, 2023 Share Posted February 9, 2023 13 minutes ago, Stovepipe said: The question I have is, when is John leaving to watch the super bowl in Chatty? I'm planning my snowman around that. Where has he been? I miss his posts. He usually provides some good historical analysis when looking at potential systems. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
fountainguy97 Posted February 9, 2023 Share Posted February 9, 2023 Euro has stopped moving west it appears. This run is a tiny tick back east. hr 54: all models nearly identical besides gfs which is 50miles faster (east) than everyone else. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Uncle Nasty Posted February 9, 2023 Share Posted February 9, 2023 The question I have is, when is John leaving to watch the super bowl in Chatty? I'm planning my snowman around that.It seems John is a pretty good luck charm for our area. He seems to bring some cotton balls from the sky with him over the years. This kind of set-up has surprised Chattanooga a few times over the last 15 years. I would like another surprise for Super Bowl. Not expecting anything at all but these things can be sneaky. Sent from my moto z4 using Tapatalk 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
fountainguy97 Posted February 9, 2023 Share Posted February 9, 2023 Hr 66 euro nearly 50miles SE of 00z run and weaker. hr 72: precip shield 50 miles east of 00z we now have a pretty tight consensus edit: euro crushes north of I-40 and east of I-81 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
fountainguy97 Posted February 9, 2023 Share Posted February 9, 2023 12z euro is amazing for Eastern areas. Plenty of cooling. Decent timing. This confirms we more or less have a general agreement on track. Still room for a 25-50mile shift before this is over 3 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
John1122 Posted February 9, 2023 Share Posted February 9, 2023 1 hour ago, Stovepipe said: The question I have is, when is John leaving to watch the super bowl in Chatty? I'm planning my snowman around that. Yes. I'm leaving Saturday morning. This was inevitable. 5 1 3 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Carvers Gap Posted February 9, 2023 Author Share Posted February 9, 2023 Out of my meeting. Did I miss anything? 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Carvers Gap Posted February 9, 2023 Author Share Posted February 9, 2023 Here is the non-Kuchera, just run-of-the-mill accumulation map. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Carvers Gap Posted February 9, 2023 Author Share Posted February 9, 2023 7 minutes ago, John1122 said: Yes. I'm leaving Saturday morning. This was inevitable. I completely forgot about the Super Bowl Trip analog! More accurate than "thunder in the mountains!"(which is super accurate IMBY) 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
1234snow Posted February 9, 2023 Share Posted February 9, 2023 Out of my meeting. Did I miss anything?You were totally looking at the Euro in your meeting! Lol. 1 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Carvers Gap Posted February 9, 2023 Author Share Posted February 9, 2023 Ensembles do support the 12z suite. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PowellVolz Posted February 9, 2023 Share Posted February 9, 2023 MRX isn’t impressed . 1 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Vol4Life Posted February 9, 2023 Share Posted February 9, 2023 1 minute ago, PowellVolz said: MRX isn’t impressed . Now I really like our chances!! Lol! 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Daniel Boone Posted February 9, 2023 Share Posted February 9, 2023 20 minutes ago, PowellVolz said: MRX isn’t impressed . I'm shocked, lol 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nrgjeff Posted February 9, 2023 Share Posted February 9, 2023 MRX probability chart is reasonable for an event 60 hours out with borderline temps. Keep in mind probability considers all parameters, climo and time to event. Probability 3 days out is usually bearish compared to deterministic numerical models. MRX rightfully blanks Chattanooga, and does include the Cumberland Plateau. Maybe I'm biased in favor because it has things in common with my longer post bottom of page 20 this topic. PS. I'll post in the event topic on Friday. If I post too early, I'll surely jinx it. 6 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
tnweathernut Posted February 9, 2023 Share Posted February 9, 2023 27 minutes ago, nrgjeff said: MRX probability chart is reasonable for an event 60 hours out with borderline temps. Keep in mind probability considers all parameters, climo and time to event. Probability 3 days out is usually bearish compared to deterministic numerical models. MRX rightfully blanks Chattanooga, and does include the Cumberland Plateau. Maybe I'm biased in favor because it has things in common with my longer post bottom of page 20 this topic. PS. I'll post in the event topic on Friday. If I post too early, I'll surely jinx it. Eh, it would be ok........... Here in Tennessee if a donkey farts into the wind and it can throw things off when it comes to snow. As always, appreciate your input. 1 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
PowellVolz Posted February 9, 2023 Share Posted February 9, 2023 MRX probability chart is reasonable for an event 60 hours out with borderline temps. Keep in mind probability considers all parameters, climo and time to event. Probability 3 days out is usually bearish compared to deterministic numerical models. MRX rightfully blanks Chattanooga, and does include the Cumberland Plateau. Maybe I'm biased in favor because it has things in common with my longer post bottom of page 20 this topic. PS. I'll post in the event topic on Friday. If I post too early, I'll surely jinx it.Guess I should have added that MRX took any mention of snow out of my zip code and raised high temps to 45 on Sunday. Now I’m not at all arguing that it’s wrong but moving away from any winter weather is not the play I would have made. . 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Carvers Gap Posted February 9, 2023 Author Share Posted February 9, 2023 March looks incredibly cold on the Euro Weeklies. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
matt9697 Posted February 9, 2023 Share Posted February 9, 2023 6 minutes ago, Carvers Gap said: March looks incredibly cold on the Euro Weeklies. Maybe someone someplace in the forum can pull a storm or two out of that 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Holston_River_Rambler Posted February 9, 2023 Share Posted February 9, 2023 7 hours ago, Carvers Gap said: Remind me why the inverted trough is good. I know it helps, but I always forget about how that actually works. Sorry for taking a million years in model watching time to get back to this. Was out quite a bit today. I think it provides an extra focus for lift and may have something to do the upper low lagging behind the surface reflection over the warm coastal waters. The flow is still S or SW at the mid levels so that as the developing cyclone throws moisture back the upper low can lift that moisture. I could also be really wrong about that write up lol. https://glossary.ametsoc.org/wiki/Inverted_trough#:~:text=An atmospheric trough with pressure,side of the subtropical high. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Met1985 Posted February 9, 2023 Share Posted February 9, 2023 19 minutes ago, Carvers Gap said: March looks incredibly cold on the Euro Weeklies. Yeah @GaWx has been keeping us updated on this major SSW in swing currently or going to be in swing. That combined with a favorable mjo it looks like the end of the month and March could be rocking. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Blizzard22 Posted February 9, 2023 Share Posted February 9, 2023 I don't care how cold it is in March, it is always difficult to get snow especially in the lower elevations. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Holston_River_Rambler Posted February 9, 2023 Share Posted February 9, 2023 14 minutes ago, Holston_River_Rambler said: Sorry for taking a million years in model watching time to get back to this. Was out quite a bit today. I think it provides an extra focus for lift and may have something to do the upper low lagging behind the surface reflection over the warm coastal waters. The flow is still S or SW at the mid levels so that as the developing cyclone throws moisture back the upper low can lift that moisture. I could also be really wrong about that write up lol. https://glossary.ametsoc.org/wiki/Inverted_trough#:~:text=An atmospheric trough with pressure,side of the subtropical high. Actually just read back and saw where Jeff answered this, sorry. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Daniel Boone Posted February 10, 2023 Share Posted February 10, 2023 2 hours ago, Carvers Gap said: March looks incredibly cold on the Euro Weeklies. Yeah, good reason for that with the SSW effects coinciding with what looks to be other parameters lining up. Cross Polar Flow looks to be in the picture as well. So, providing something doesn't throw a monkey wrench late Feb/ to mid March may be our most wintry period of this lackluster Winter. The West has had a wall to wall, trifecta one. Been a long time since we've had that. Thinking 2009-10 or maybe 2010-11 was last one. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Save the itchy algae! Posted February 10, 2023 Share Posted February 10, 2023 2 hours ago, Blizzard22 said: I don't care how cold it is in March, it is always difficult to get snow especially in the lower elevations. Since I moved to the valley in 2015 March has been my second snowiest month on average. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Carvers Gap Posted February 10, 2023 Author Share Posted February 10, 2023 3 hours ago, Met1985 said: Yeah @GaWx has been keeping us updated on this major SSW in swing currently or going to be in swing. That combined with a favorable mjo it looks like the end of the month and March could be rocking. And throw in a switch to Nino....nice, nice LR look. And good support for that across teleconnections, ENSO, etc. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Carvers Gap Posted February 10, 2023 Author Share Posted February 10, 2023 4 hours ago, Blizzard22 said: I don't care how cold it is in March, it is always difficult to get snow especially in the lower elevations. In NE TN, it can snow like crazy during March. I don't think this will happen this year, but some great winters had a March component. Just never know. I have been through Jan-Feb nearly snowless winters and had my seasonal average by April 1. March 2018 was snowy here. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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