Carvers Gap Posted January 24, 2023 Author Share Posted January 24, 2023 MJO progression is up for some debate. American modeling takes the tour. The Euro has been stubbornly refusing to take the tour. Most modeling stalls for a short time in phase 3 which is cold NW but cold temps surging into the SE. Pretty good correlation! I think we see a tour of debatable amplitude into the warm phases, but it looks relatively quick. It will be interesting to see it the cold overcomes the MJO in the Upper South. That is rare, but it can happen. I suspect it may have happened during one of those analog years above(but I need to check that). Anyway, this looks like a good blend of the Euro deterministic and American modeling. This is the Weeklies progression. If it gets back to 8, that to me is a very Nino signal. 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BlunderStorm Posted January 24, 2023 Share Posted January 24, 2023 4 hours ago, Bigbald said: When do we get to trend from a moderate snow depiction to greater and greater amounts? Why must it always be the opposite. In part I think it's because we have a natural predisposition to look for major weather events. The clown runs indicate POTENTIAL for a winter storm and naturally catch our eyes the most out of a series of positive yet less exciting solutions in the same period. Once model support begins to a coalesce around a certain system and window then we begin to get more critical with what we're seeing leading to on average those fluffy happy hour expectations falling flat (most) of the time. With that said, I don't think it's wholly human perception. All models have biases that at range will progressively warp and distort a look into the future. Regarding individual models biases I'm not really much help and would refer to other more avid/technical posters. 4 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Carvers Gap Posted January 24, 2023 Author Share Posted January 24, 2023 This is a 10day temp map. Cold temps are modeled to surge past the cold air boundary shown. This is just a map in order to talk potential storm track IF the cold and STJ verify. Again, this is at range, so please be aware of that. Maybe I should write "experimental map." LOL. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Carvers Gap Posted January 24, 2023 Author Share Posted January 24, 2023 I read over in the MA forum that they have had internet issues and then also supercomputer issues w/ the Euro. Not holding my breath this go around with the Euro. At this rate, its 18z run might be running at the same time. LOL. Not a fun day in the Euro met offices!!!! 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Daniel Boone Posted January 25, 2023 Share Posted January 25, 2023 Everyone check out the heavy snow in Branson Mo. on live Cam there. Just google it and use whichever outlet you choose. 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Daniel Boone Posted January 25, 2023 Share Posted January 25, 2023 The YouTube Branson Cam is best I found, btw Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Itryatgolf70 Posted January 25, 2023 Share Posted January 25, 2023 It's interesting that the main models have differing opinions in regards to the mjo. Can anyone tell which one is the correct solution? Satellite tell alot for people sometimes. I'm hoping we have a few more opportunities at winter precipitation before mid March 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
John1122 Posted January 25, 2023 Share Posted January 25, 2023 Not surprisingly, the GFS is way warmer at day 9 than it was earlier at even 12z. Approximately 30 degrees warmer. I am now in believe it when it gets here mode regarding cold and winter threats. I won't be shocked if we are warm into spring, then we get some wet snow days in late March or April. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Matthew70 Posted January 25, 2023 Share Posted January 25, 2023 Well I guess 1-2 positives is it’s not freezing rain & it’s not a 33 & rain. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Jed33 Posted January 25, 2023 Share Posted January 25, 2023 It looks like NW TN is reporting mixed precip right now around Dyersburg. Seems a little further south than what was modeled. Looking at RadarScope, Paducah looks to be in a heavy band right now. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Matthew70 Posted January 25, 2023 Share Posted January 25, 2023 3 minutes ago, John1122 said: Not surprisingly, the GFS is way warmer at day 9 than it was earlier at even 12z. Approximately 30 degrees warmer. I am now in believe it when it gets here mode regarding cold and winter threats. I won't be shocked if we are warm into spring, then we get some wet snow days in late March or April. Somehow I believe that prediction will have a high chance of verifying . Warm winters & cold springs are almost guaranteed here anymore. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Matthew70 Posted January 25, 2023 Share Posted January 25, 2023 3 minutes ago, Jed33 said: It looks like NW TN is reporting mixed precip right now around Dyersburg. Seems a little further south than what was modeled. Looking at RadarScope, Paducah looks to be in a heavy band right now. It’s to turn over to rain there in a few hours. The ole dreaded warm nose. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
John1122 Posted January 25, 2023 Share Posted January 25, 2023 4 minutes ago, Matthew70 said: Somehow I believe that prediction will have a high chance of verifying . Warm winters & cold springs are almost guaranteed here anymore. It's crazy to me how we don't even remotely have "normal" winters any more. It's either 2x normal snowfall or virtually nothing. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowmaker Posted January 25, 2023 Share Posted January 25, 2023 It’s crazy the run to run inconsistency especially on the gfs. Glad it’s not just me. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
John1122 Posted January 25, 2023 Share Posted January 25, 2023 Here's how bad the GFS is with long range modeling. 00z last night we barely got above freezing from 144-300+. Tonight we don't get below freezing from 114 to 300+. The 1990 analog would be strong again if it's remotely right tonight, except this January will finish warmer than 1990. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
matt9697 Posted January 25, 2023 Share Posted January 25, 2023 1 minute ago, John1122 said: Here's how bad the GFS is with long range modeling. 00z last night we barely got above freezing from 144-300+. Tonight we don't get below freezing from 114 to 300+. The 1990 analog would be strong again if it's remotely right tonight, except this January will finish warmer than 1990. Yea, its is a real head scratcher as to why we keep this piece of shi-. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
John1122 Posted January 25, 2023 Share Posted January 25, 2023 That was probably the worst run of any model all winter. Amazing that it comes 24 hours after probably the best run of the whole winter and from the same model. Raging +NAO and -PNA with an Aleutian H locking in the -PNA. But congrats again to California. They get swamped and buried again. Another 6-8 feet in the Sierra. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
John1122 Posted January 25, 2023 Share Posted January 25, 2023 The Canadian maintained the cold at least. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowmaker Posted January 25, 2023 Share Posted January 25, 2023 9 minutes ago, John1122 said: The Canadian maintained the cold at least. And actually generally held on to a system around the 1st as well. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
John1122 Posted January 25, 2023 Share Posted January 25, 2023 Euro is a cutter at 162. Shocking as that is. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowmaker Posted January 25, 2023 Share Posted January 25, 2023 Euro is colder past 162 and another disturbance comes across 24 hours later. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
John1122 Posted January 25, 2023 Share Posted January 25, 2023 The Euro and Canadian maintain cold but not much winter precip for most of the area. Maybe something for far NW areas of the forum that run. I just paid an extra 50 percent on my utility bill and didn't have much snow to show for it from December. I hope that doesn't happen again this winter. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
John1122 Posted January 25, 2023 Share Posted January 25, 2023 The Ozarks are set to become the Sierra's of the East it looks like. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
John1122 Posted January 25, 2023 Share Posted January 25, 2023 The 06z GFS is back to extreme winter. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Carvers Gap Posted January 25, 2023 Author Share Posted January 25, 2023 I was expecting to see no wintry precip on modeling at all this AM after reading all of the overnight comments. LOL. The 0z Euro, 0z CMC, and 6z GFS all have a winter storm signal between Jan31-Feb4 for at least middle and west TN. The Euro has it for the entire region. Long way to go as CMC, which is the earliest, is still 6 days away. Ensembles at this range are the key. Operationals are pretty much just one member of the ensemble. We have said this many times, but the setup with this reminds me of the west TN snow and ice storm from a couple of years ago. Right now, it is timing of the front and short waves along that front which is no easy task. It is worth noting that modeling at this range can and does change at the drop of a hat. That we are still in it at this range is a good thing. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Carvers Gap Posted January 25, 2023 Author Share Posted January 25, 2023 14 hours ago, Carvers Gap said: This is a 10day temp map. Cold temps are modeled to surge past the cold air boundary shown. This is just a map in order to talk potential storm track IF the cold and STJ verify. Again, this is at range, so please be aware of that. Maybe I should write "experimental map." LOL. This will take some time to sort out......................... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Carvers Gap Posted January 25, 2023 Author Share Posted January 25, 2023 8 hours ago, Itryatgolf70 said: It's interesting that the main models have differing opinions in regards to the mjo. Can anyone tell which one is the correct solution? Satellite tell alot for people sometimes. I'm hoping we have a few more opportunities at winter precipitation before mid March My guess is that when any model says that the MJO is heading for the warm phases...it is probably headed there. The GFS had it first. The Euro EMON takes it in the week phases. The GFS, as fallible as it has become, has been able to sniff out warm spells as it may be modeling the area around Indonesia and the IO better. IDK. The MJO signal has also been weak for about a month which makes it tougher. I do think it will take a tour through the warm phases. Amplitude is the question for me at this point. The Euro yesterday gives us some hope that it won't, but it is on an island at this point. I think, as noted to start this thread, we will see a big warm-up mid month, and then it rotates into 8 for late Feb and early March. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Carvers Gap Posted January 25, 2023 Author Share Posted January 25, 2023 Overnight modeling looks quite similar to the thread assessment that CPC released yesterday - the area of low probability for wintry precip. That is the line on deterministic modeling from overnight. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
matt9697 Posted January 25, 2023 Share Posted January 25, 2023 The icing depictions on various models are unnerving to say the least. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Carvers Gap Posted January 25, 2023 Author Share Posted January 25, 2023 Just looking at ensembles. This is just a blend......Cold arrives in the northwest corner of the forum area around Jan 31st and gets to NE TN on Feb 2nd or 3rd. We are looking at a very strong cold front taking ~72 hours to traverse the forum area. Think about how quickly the December front moved across the state - FAST! This front is going to be crawling if modeling is anywhere close to being correct. That gives ample time for short waves to run that front. A slow crawling, strong cold front is part of the recipe for over-running. The way we don't see wintry precip, and it is certainly plausible, is the over-running heads to the Ohio River Valley as that fits climatology and the Nina induced SER flexes. The way we get wintry precip is for the front to at least get past the MS before stalling or slowing down, and Nino induced BN heights win the day in the Upper South. The way we get snow/ice for the entire state is for the system to move slowly and not stall. My guess is this stalls on the Plateau, and then pushes across as cold air builds. For E TN, we need a system to run that front right as the cold air press past. One last note, the MJO during January is warm for phase 3. However, it correlates to cold during February. As we have one foot in January and one foot in February, it is possible that aspect of climatology might be causing some variation as well. IDK. But as we traverse phase 3 during that time, and it possibly stalling there, the Jan result and Feb result of that phase of the MJO are way different. The ECM BC(Euro ensemble bias corrected) never leaves phase 3 for the entirety of its run. It spends 360 hours in a phase that has two different results depending on whether it is Jan or Feb. BTW, I am not sure I am buying what the Euro BC is celling. Throw in the transition ENSO state and MJO in a phase with two different results depending on the month, I think this is likely why we are seeing some wild swings in modeling. 4 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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