January/February Mid/Long Range Disco IV: A New Hope

[Ralph Wiggum]

8 hours ago, TSSN+ said:

Ya it’s more in the 18z gfs camp lol

0z euro was also in the 18z gfs camp from yesterday fwiw. Finally gets the cold established after the turn of the month and has a stationary boundary hanging under us with waves riding along it. 

[Ralph Wiggum]

1 minute ago, Terpeast said:

LR ens showing the SER flexing again at end of range. Again. 

That base state isn't going to change. We knew coming in this year would be windows sandwiched in-between AN stuff with a flexing SER. So far those windows have been unproductive. Maybe this early Feb period can work for once. 

[Ralph Wiggum]

6 minutes ago, Terpeast said:

LR ens showing the SER flexing again at end of range. Again. 

Just wanted to note that even with the SER flex as you pointed out, the 2m temps (and 850s which I'm not posting) are still BN and plenty of cold up top. If the PAC side went to puke in addition to the SER I would be tempted to punt Feb, but as long as we have the cold air source nearby we are still in the game for a bit: 

[CAPE]

3 minutes ago, Terpeast said:

LR ens showing the SER flexing again at end of range. Again. 

That's been the general expectation as the TPV shifts more into the NAO domain and it goes impressively positive. For now it doesn't look like we torch, but definitely some moderation towards mid month. The Pacific side as currently modeled doesn't go hostile at least, with a ridge forecast to persist in the EPO/WPO space. That should keep our source region cold.

[Terpeast]

Yeah, with a better pac and colder source region, it’s not a torchy look. But storms probably still cut. 

[Heisy]

Still believe best hope is around Feb 4-7 once the tpv/cold air pushes east. For example Here is 6z GFS once that finally happens. The window is there once the SER is finally diminished temporarily. Probably will fail again, but nothing has changed imo. Just see if we can get lucky during that time frame.




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[mattie g]

37 minutes ago, WinterWxLuvr said:

When does the -20° air get here?

Two days before our third consecutive rainstorm.

36 minutes ago, WinterWxLuvr said:

And the 25” blizzard? I just want to put it in my calendar.

That's not happening.

[psuhoffman]

51 minutes ago, CAPE said:

That's been the general expectation as the TPV shifts more into the NAO domain and it goes impressively positive. For now it doesn't look like we torch, but definitely some moderation towards mid month. The Pacific side as currently modeled doesn't go hostile at least, with a ridge forecast to persist in the EPO/WPO space. That should keep our source region cold.

Except a -EPO, -PNA, +NAO is a really really really bad correlation to snow.  The EPO alone actually has absolutely no correlation to snow beyond noise.  A -EPO +PNA combo has "some" correlation to snow.  A -EPO/+PNA/-NAO has a very high correlation...but get this...a +EPO/+PNA/-NAO has an even higher correlation to snow.  In short...a -EPO as taken as an individual pattern driver has the lowest correlation to snow of all the major global indicators we look at (EPO/PNA/AO/NAO).   And a -EPO with a bad atlantic actually is usually a total fail cold dry warm wet pattern.  

[osfan24]

3 minutes ago, psuhoffman said:

Except a -EPO, -PNA, +NAO is a really really really bad correlation to snow.  The EPO alone actually has absolutely no correlation to snow beyond noise.  A -EPO +PNA combo has "some" correlation to snow.  A -EPO/+PNA/-NAO has a very high correlation...but get this...a +EPO/+PNA/-NAO has an even higher correlation to snow.  In short...a -EPO as taken as an individual pattern driver has the lowest correlation to snow of all the major global indicators we look at (EPO/PNA/AO/NAO).   And a -EPO with a bad atlantic actually is usually a total fail cold dry warm wet pattern.  

Which to me, is likely what the models are trying to tell us. I know some keep saying that there will be cold air, but it seems like there will be cold air until a storm pops and then the SER flexes its muscle and we get rain and then it dries out and it relaxes and the cold returns and on and on we go.

[CAPE]

22 minutes ago, psuhoffman said:

Except a -EPO, -PNA, +NAO is a really really really bad correlation to snow.  The EPO alone actually has absolutely no correlation to snow beyond noise.  A -EPO +PNA combo has "some" correlation to snow.  A -EPO/+PNA/-NAO has a very high correlation...but get this...a +EPO/+PNA/-NAO has an even higher correlation to snow.  In short...a -EPO as taken as an individual pattern driver has the lowest correlation to snow of all the major global indicators we look at (EPO/PNA/AO/NAO).   And a -EPO with a bad atlantic actually is usually a total fail cold dry warm wet pattern.  

If that pattern locks in for the rest of the month then sure, but that isn't the point I was making. If the pattern improves moving towards the end of Feb, specifically on the Atlantic side, then still having some cold close by in Canada would be better than it being flooded with Pacific air with a +EPO/-PNA combo.

[psuhoffman]

49 minutes ago, Terpeast said:

Yeah, with a better pac and colder source region, it’s not a torchy look. But storms probably still cut. 

Yea I don't agree with the "rosy" assessment of that day 15 look.  First of all its a long range mean...if the anomalies end up where they are...as the outliers fall off the SE ridge and associated warmth will become even more extreme.  We've seen this over and over and over and over and over again.  Additionally, not all "near normal" anomalies are the same.  If this was a blocking pattern I would be thrilled to see neutral anomalies.  But in a pattern where the cold is centered to our north and there is a hostile Atlantic, we actually need to see the cold boundary well to our south.  Because any wave will push the boundary north.  In general in that pattern precipitation events will likely happen and the warmest point of the pattern.  So a smoothed temperature mean at that range where timing differences on waves from each run of an ensemble will vary....we need to see the boundary well south...otherwise what we are seeing is that we might get chilly for a day or two behind waves...but will likely warm up before the next.  I think that day 15 look is pretty much garbage.  The best thing I can say about it is its day 15 and will likely be wrong in some way...just pray it changes in a better direction not worse, because that look there is unlikely to produce a snowstorm here imo.  

I still agree with most that our best window looks to be in early Feb for a short period.  Unfortunately its pretty much just a transition not a long lasting pattern so we likely get 1-2 wave chances then its back to shit the blinds.  As the TPV gets displaced it sets up a relatively short window of opportunity where the SER could be suppressed enough.  What we REALLY need is for the waves on the front end of that process to come across in pieces and not amplified.  Our best shot is likely as the cold boundary presses if we can get some waves along it.  If the cold blasts through behind an amplified phased wave we are likely toast as it will suppress everything and then our only hope is to pray we get a weak wave on the backside of the cold.  It would have to be weak though since by the time the TPV is exiting east we resume a pretty awful longwave pattern and anything even slightly amplified will just cut way west again.  

 

[jayyy]

I’m just going to stay in upstate NY at this point for fucks sake


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[jayyy]

Oklahoma City has a warning up for 3-6” of snow. We can’t spare an inch. This winters been rough man. NYC and BOS are also about to get the shaft on this next one.

[Baltimorewx]

What happened to my 27 inches of digital snow on last nights GFS Happy hour run? Ooof...Everything just wants to amplify a little too much.

[Ralph Wiggum]

42 minutes ago, osfan24 said:

Which to me, is likely what the models are trying to tell us. I know some keep saying that there will be cold air, but it seems like there will be cold air until a storm pops and then the SER flexes its muscle and we get rain and then it dries out and it relaxes and the cold returns and on and on we go.

A boundary stalled under us with weakish waves riding it would work such as the ens means are hinting at for the 1st week of Feb. An amped up low...as you said...warm (relative)/wet. 

[jayyy]

A boundary stalled under us with weakish waves riding it would work such as the ens means are hinting at for the 1st week of Feb. An amped up low...as you said...warm (relative)/wet. 

Feels like I’m beating a dead horse at this point, but there’s a reason I’ve been hoping for this type of overrunning boundary pattern into a cold air dome. Yeah, we all want the KU, especially after a torturous last 24 months, but during a year where any semblance of amplification pumps the SER ridge up like a gym rat on roids and cuts storms to our west, I’d rather see weaker waves ride south of here and dump 2-4/3-6 than try to thread the needle with a stronger low approaching from the SW. It’s just not our year for strong Miller A’s and it’s pretty much never out year for Miller B’s given our latitude. Who knows, perhaps we get lucky with a blowup off the coast of VA with one of these weaker lows along the boundary. Let’s get some cold air in place and an active storm track to our south. The rest will sort itself out. I’m tired of praying we’re going to thread the needle because models 10-15 days out have a few runs where it works out that way, just to watch it fall apart in the 5-7 day range..

[mappy]

22 minutes ago, Baltimorewx said:

What happened to my 27 inches of digital snow on last nights GFS Happy hour run? Ooof...Everything just wants to amplify a little too much.

too many beers perhaps?  

[jayyy]

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[jayyy]

Like so! Weaker wave meets cold air. Our levels don’t get torched and we get snow. This is what we need to kick off a potential window of wintry weather. Some snowpack and a storm to move the boundary south.

[mattie g]

38 minutes ago, jayyy said:

Oklahoma City has a warning up for 3-6” of snow. We can’t spare an inch. This winters been rough man. NYC and BOS are also about to get the shaft on this next one.

[stormtracker]

20 minutes ago, jayyy said:

Like so! Weaker wave meets cold air. Our levels don’t get torched and we get snow. This is what we need to kick off a potential window of wintry weather. Some snowpack and a storm to move the boundary south.

Yeah, all of this gloom and doom in here and I thought it was a pretty decent run

[jayyy]

Yeah, all of this gloom and doom in here and I thought it was a pretty decent run

Agreed! Very active storm track and cold air around to our NW with a building snowpack in places like PA NY and the Midwest. Wouldn’t take much to get something out of that pattern.

We don’t need extravagant to get a workable pattern. Simple works best for us most of the time, especially during years where the SER is so dominant.


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[psuhoffman]

7 minutes ago, stormtracker said:

Yeah, all of this gloom and doom in here and I thought it was a pretty decent run

My “gloom” was analysis of what happens after. Feb 1-5 or so holds some potential.  But it looks like it deteriorates into another crap pattern pretty quick. That gives us 1-2 wave opportunities perhaps. You know how our luck seems to go with any one wave. And the pattern is good not great. Usually to hit with a one and done we need a REALLY good window. I was hopeful to get either a better short term window (some blocking perhaps) or a longer lived favorable window at some point.  We very much can score a hit in the Feb 1-5 period. But if we don’t it could get real ugly. That’s where I was coming from. 

[stormtracker]

25 minutes ago, psuhoffman said:

My “gloom” was analysis of what happens after. Feb 1-5 or so holds some potential.  But it looks like it deteriorates into another crap pattern pretty quick. That gives us 1-2 wave opportunities perhaps. You know how our luck seems to go with any one wave. And the pattern is good not great. Usually to hit with a one and done we need a REALLY good window. I was hopeful to get either a better short term window (some blocking perhaps) or a longer lived favorable window at some point.  We very much can score a hit in the Feb 1-5 period. But if we don’t it could get real ugly. That’s where I was coming from. 

Ah, ok.  Well, this one week in Feb is our best shot.  If we don't hit then, I might have to just check out.

[CAPE]

Fwiw the latest edition of the Euro weeklies suggest a transition to a workable h5 look for the last week of Feb. Maybe we bookend the month with crap in the middle.

[Chris78]

Cmc shows the potential for late in January into the first week of February. 

[87storms]

12z GFS for the next week system shifted about 500 miles to the WNW.

[windycutter]

2 minutes ago, 87storms said:

12z GFS for the next week system shifted about 500 miles to the WNW.

Ya, gut punch.

[mattie g]

7 minutes ago, 87storms said:

12z GFS for the next week system shifted about 500 miles to the WNW.

 

4 minutes ago, windycutter said:

Ya, gut punch.

It has shifted NW to SE from one run to the next over the last few runs.

DO NOT WORRY ABOUT OP RUN DETAILS AT THIS RANGE.

[mattie g]

@WxUSAF...at 306 on the 12z GFS, the 1009L is about to bully that 1051H. You just wait and see.