AtlanticWx Posted January 30, 2023 Share Posted January 30, 2023 probably one of the most interesting synoptic setups we've had this winter, slow + amp everything down a bit and you get an awesome setup. we have a beast of a 50/50 low and if we can slow + amp everything just a bit, definitely gonna be worth watching 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jayyy Posted January 30, 2023 Share Posted January 30, 2023 RGEM / ICON say yes, GFS NAM Euro say no… what could go wrong Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jayyy Posted January 30, 2023 Share Posted January 30, 2023 RGEM has been insanely consistent, while other models keep waffling run to run, so I’m curious what its handling differently versus other models. Not saying it’s right.. especially being on an island with the ICON…but curious nonetheless. For you seasoned gurus in here, what leads to its better outcome for the area? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Heisy Posted January 30, 2023 Share Posted January 30, 2023 probably one of the most interesting synoptic setups we've had this winter, slow + amp everything down a bit and you get an awesome setup. we have a beast of a 50/50 low and if we can slow + amp everything just a bit, definitely gonna be worth watchingWorth watching but I think that 50/50 isn’t exactly at 50/50. Little too far N. Would need the shortwave to take an almost perfect track or see that trend S idk . Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Weather Will Posted January 30, 2023 Share Posted January 30, 2023 WB 0Z GEFS and GEPS have the Sunday storm. EPS further offshore and develops later… 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nw baltimore wx Posted January 30, 2023 Share Posted January 30, 2023 Regarding Wednesday, 6z Rgem is the best run yet. 6z nam is the complete opposite. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAPE Posted January 30, 2023 Share Posted January 30, 2023 3 hours ago, Heisy said: Worth watching but I think that 50/50 isn’t exactly at 50/50. Little too far N. Would need the shortwave to take an almost perfect track or see that trend S idk . Yeah it's the retreating TPV lobe, and the cold HP associated with it is off the NE coast at that point. Still a bit of damming left behind, but with the flow around the backside of that high and the low to the NW, the airmass is quickly modifying. A well timed phase between the NS energy and developing coastal low would probably work for the interior (Canadian is close to this) but the progressive flow favors that occurring too late for the MA. The EPS has the southern wave sliding off the SE coast. Still far enough out for timing/placement of features to change. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BristowWx Posted January 30, 2023 Share Posted January 30, 2023 2 minutes ago, nw baltimore wx said: 6z Rgem is the best run yet. 6z nam is the complet opposite. GFS while not a hit pushes the precip further north after the initial slug. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nw baltimore wx Posted January 30, 2023 Share Posted January 30, 2023 Just now, BristowWx said: GFS while not a hit pushes the precip further north after the initial slug. Gfs looks like it’s developing the same wave as the rgem but without the steroids. The nam wants nothing to do with that wave entirely. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAPE Posted January 30, 2023 Share Posted January 30, 2023 5 minutes ago, nw baltimore wx said: Regarding Wednesday, 6z Rgem is the best run yet. 6z nam is the complete opposite. Someone should start a thread for the puny midweek wave. Looks like a decent chance for an inch or so across some of the area, ignoring the Euro ofc. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nw baltimore wx Posted January 30, 2023 Share Posted January 30, 2023 14 minutes ago, CAPE said: Someone should start a thread for the puny midweek wave. Looks like a decent chance for an inch or so across some of the area, ignoring the Euro ofc. Nice try. I’m not tarnishing my perfect 0-0 record for storm threads. edited to add that lwx touched on the possibility. ”Another wave of low pressure and upper-level disturbance will pass by to the south Tuesday night. Model guidance still diverges on how strong this system will be, and consequently how much precipitation will develop in the colder air. It will be colder Tuesday night of course, so if precipitation develops there can be some light snow accumulation across much of the area. This will continue to be monitored. Will continue with the forecast that suggests a coating of snow can accumulate, but kept pops at chance levels for now given the uncertainty as to whether or not it will precipitate.” Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rtd208 Posted January 30, 2023 Share Posted January 30, 2023 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAPE Posted January 30, 2023 Share Posted January 30, 2023 32 minutes ago, nw baltimore wx said: Nice try. I’m not tarnishing my perfect 0-0 record for storm threads. edited to add that lwx touched on the possibility. ”Another wave of low pressure and upper-level disturbance will pass by to the south Tuesday night. Model guidance still diverges on how strong this system will be, and consequently how much precipitation will develop in the colder air. It will be colder Tuesday night of course, so if precipitation develops there can be some light snow accumulation across much of the area. This will continue to be monitored. Will continue with the forecast that suggests a coating of snow can accumulate, but kept pops at chance levels for now given the uncertainty as to whether or not it will precipitate.” Snippet from Mount Holly morning AFD- Accumulation wise, potential exists for a coating up to a couple inches or so with the best chances for accumulating snow being over interior portions of Delmarva and interior southern NJ (S/SE of Philly). Again, it needs to be stressed that forecast confidence is lower than average and if the wave is weaker and farther south there will be little to no snow accumulation while if it`s farther north much of eastern PA, NJ and central/northern Delmarva could get 1-3 inches of snow. SO, 0-3 inches. I'm pretty sure it will be closer to the zero. 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Weather Will Posted January 30, 2023 Share Posted January 30, 2023 WB 6Z GEFS, back in the 10-20 percent range for Sunday…. 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IronTy Posted January 30, 2023 Share Posted January 30, 2023 3 hours ago, Weather Will said: WB 6Z GEFS, back in the 10-20 percent range for Sunday…. Hooray to the Atlantic ocean, I guess? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted January 30, 2023 Share Posted January 30, 2023 4 hours ago, CAPE said: Someone should start a thread for the puny midweek wave. Looks like a decent chance for an inch or so across some of the area, ignoring the Euro ofc. When I started really digging into what the ensembles were actually hinting at, when this was still like 12 days out, shockingly they were showing exactly what this ended up being. The reason the 1" probabilities were always way higher than the 3" even with a fairly high mean some runs was that the guidance was always saying our area had a decent chance of like 1" somewhere around here from that initial wave, but that while a few outlier members showed some huge 8" plus dump from the second wave which skewed the mean the truth was the vast majority of guidance was always a miss with wave 2. The pattern now in the short to medium range still looks exactly like it did really when it was the super long range. Pretty amazing guidance win. Sometimes the guidance is just wrong...and we always notice, so its worth pointing out when it nails something...even when its not necessarily what we want. 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
clskinsfan Posted January 30, 2023 Share Posted January 30, 2023 12Z HRRR is pretty paltry. It does have flakes through the area. And its plenty cold. Mid 20's out this way when the snow starts. But there just isnt much QPF with the event. It did pretty well with the last "event". So I wont ignore it any more. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted January 30, 2023 Share Posted January 30, 2023 This is probably the last time I am wasting my time on this period. If future runs identify a tangible threat period I will start tracking that but as of now the threat of anything significant in the coming period is dead. There is still some threat of an inch or two in the area with the wave this week but that is best handled by operational and meso models at this point not ensembles so there is no point doing this anymore. 0z 1/30/23 combined ensemble bwi snow probabilities through 0z Feb 6 1": 21% 3": 4% 6": 3% 1 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NorthArlington101 Posted January 30, 2023 Share Posted January 30, 2023 GFS wants to give some flakes Thursday after its light Tuesday/Wednesday dustings. The saddest, worst shadow of an multi-day overrunning event ever. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
87storms Posted January 30, 2023 Share Posted January 30, 2023 The late week precip looks like it's nudged north again. Maybe we can get a January 30, 2010 out of it (wishcasting). Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
87storms Posted January 30, 2023 Share Posted January 30, 2023 Actually, it nudged significantly north, but temps are fringe. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stormchaserchuck1 Posted January 30, 2023 Share Posted January 30, 2023 I kind of like all that energy hanging back into the SW around Valentine's day. I do think the current -PNA/GOA High is overdone on models. Could be a big storm. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted January 30, 2023 Share Posted January 30, 2023 If we're lucky maybe we will get a perfect track and.... FUCK 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted January 30, 2023 Author Share Posted January 30, 2023 Snow in the area at 150hr on GFS Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
87storms Posted January 30, 2023 Share Posted January 30, 2023 Re hr84...soundings are a close call...maybe lift/rates would be able to overcome things further north (assuming the forcing trends further north). Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted January 30, 2023 Author Share Posted January 30, 2023 150 - 159...lol, would be our biggest snow of the season...don't get excited...thats not saying much 1 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowenOutThere Posted January 30, 2023 Share Posted January 30, 2023 1 minute ago, stormtracker said: Snow in the area at 150hr on GFS It gets close to a storm but barely misses the phase instead we get some northern stream bands. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
87storms Posted January 30, 2023 Share Posted January 30, 2023 1 minute ago, stormtracker said: 150 - 159...lol, would be our biggest snow of the season...don't get excited...thats not saying much Blurb from LWX on that one... Come Saturday, the trough/vortex will move into Maritime Canada with height rises locally. As an incoming trough moves through the Ohio Valley, the interaction of the northern and southern stream energy will be key to see if there is any precipitation/storm threat Sunday into Monday. Have maintained low end chance POPs for most with some wintry potential. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
87storms Posted January 30, 2023 Share Posted January 30, 2023 It's a trackable week...let's put it that way. Whatever falls, falls. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Scarlet Pimpernel Posted January 30, 2023 Share Posted January 30, 2023 1 minute ago, psuhoffman said: If we're lucky maybe we will get a perfect track and.... FUCK Yeah, no kidding! Another perfect track rain storm! Seems like the cold air coming in behind the front associated with the wave in Canada doesn't come in fast enough. The storm of interest that rains on us is moving in sync with the one in Canada, and only after it's gone does the colder air come in as the high in the upper midwest pushes east. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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