Ji Posted January 29, 2023 Share Posted January 29, 2023 what a waste of an artic high...this is the reason i wanted a cutter. At least we could of seen some heavy front end snow before flip 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
anotherman Posted January 29, 2023 Share Posted January 29, 2023 WB 12Z GFS thru midweek: hilarious or pathetic depending on your point of view….Looks like we get screwed either way. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nw baltimore wx Posted January 29, 2023 Share Posted January 29, 2023 The timing of the northern stream and southern stream features remind me of my old ‘73 Nova. All out of whack. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted January 29, 2023 Share Posted January 29, 2023 8 minutes ago, clskinsfan said: CMC pretty nice as well. Although I think its short range is based on the RGEM. Slightly better than it actually 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted January 29, 2023 Share Posted January 29, 2023 12z CMC way better than the 00z run for most as well... except southern parts of the CWA 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
BristowWx Posted January 29, 2023 Share Posted January 29, 2023 4 minutes ago, anotherman said: Looks like we get screwed either way. Sword fight. Getting boned both ways in that map 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DarkSharkWX Posted January 29, 2023 Share Posted January 29, 2023 5 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
nw baltimore wx Posted January 29, 2023 Share Posted January 29, 2023 Just now, yoda said: 12z CMC way better than the 00z run for most as well... except southern parts of the CWA. I’ll take the CMC and a virtual day for $400, Alex. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted January 29, 2023 Share Posted January 29, 2023 i think icon was about to do something interesting at 180 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Weather Will Posted January 29, 2023 Share Posted January 29, 2023 The story of the next 6 days will be the bitterly cold arctic blast Saturday. WB 12Z GFS 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
87storms Posted January 29, 2023 Share Posted January 29, 2023 1 minute ago, yoda said: 12z CMC way better than the 00z run for most as well... except southern parts of the CWA Canadian is a classic way for us to get a 1-3/2-4" overrunning snow here. Whether it's right or not is a whole 'nother topic. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Weather Will Posted January 29, 2023 Share Posted January 29, 2023 4 minutes ago, BristowWx said: Sword fight. Getting boned both ways in that map Looks like two middle fingers to me…. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
87storms Posted January 29, 2023 Share Posted January 29, 2023 11 minutes ago, nw baltimore wx said: The timing of the northern stream and southern stream features remind me of my old ‘73 Nova. All out of whack. Yea, I think that late week system needs to speed up or it's just going to get suppressed OTS as modeled with very little NS interaction. Or maybe that midweek wave needs to be the main one before the cold/dry settles in. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted January 29, 2023 Share Posted January 29, 2023 One of the things I hope this probabilities calculation will help with is to dispel the perception the NWP is constantly “teasing” is with predicting snow. Sometimes it does. It’s certainly not perfect. But more often what I see is a situation where maybe a run or two of one op model shows snow over a day or two but it’s never the preponderance of evidence. But we give that gfs rub that shows a snowstorm way more attention than the other guidance that doesn’t. Or the eps might for a couple runs look snowy but the gefs and geps isn’t. Or people see a 3.5” snow mean and thing the guidance is saying they think we will get 3.5”. That’s not what a mean means. Lol. If the mean is 3.5” but the probability of snow is 40% it’s actually saying we probably won’t get anything. I hope this gives a better indication of what the guidance actually thinks our chances of snow are. At no point during this window we’re tracking was the chance of 1” higher than ~50% or the chance of 3” above 30%. Guidance never teased us. It always even from 12 days out was saying we had a chance at 1-2” somewhere in our area with wave 1 and anything else was a super long shot. That’s still where we are now. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chris78 Posted January 29, 2023 Share Posted January 29, 2023 10 minutes ago, Ji said: i think icon was about to do something interesting at 180 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ravens94 Posted January 29, 2023 Share Posted January 29, 2023 Don't really follow the GFS to close its moving the right direction it's just horribly slow at it. Betting the individual members are better Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Weather Will Posted January 29, 2023 Share Posted January 29, 2023 WB 12Z Day 7 is what I will keep watching for a comeback… Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jayyy Posted January 29, 2023 Share Posted January 29, 2023 I’ll take what the RGEM is smoking for $20 please. . 4 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TSSN+ Posted January 29, 2023 Share Posted January 29, 2023 Under 72hrs and rgem/cmc vastly different from gfs, got to love it. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
TSSN+ Posted January 29, 2023 Share Posted January 29, 2023 CMC weenie run 6 6 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jayyy Posted January 29, 2023 Share Posted January 29, 2023 I’ll take what the RGEM is smoking for $20 please. .It is interesting to see the GFS/Euro focus on the southern part of the area, while the ICON RGEM and Canadian focus things further north. Euro plops a HP in Ohio, which appears to push the wave south. I’m just as snow hungry as the next weenie, but being on the wrong side of a Euro/GFS vs. RGEM/Icon/CMC fight is probably not the place we want to be. NAM is a sheered out mess too. . Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jayyy Posted January 29, 2023 Share Posted January 29, 2023 RGEM is juiced and north . 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jayyy Posted January 29, 2023 Share Posted January 29, 2023 euro pushes precip south of here . Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted January 29, 2023 Share Posted January 29, 2023 12z CMC would be a nice hit on late Sunday into early Monday between i81 and i95 corridors 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jayyy Posted January 29, 2023 Share Posted January 29, 2023 Canadian also has a more robust wave and pushes precip way further north with a better placed High at the canadian border. . Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Weather Will Posted January 29, 2023 Share Posted January 29, 2023 GFS and Can have teased an east coast storm Rain/snow line TBD for the Sun. Mon period since 12Z yesterday. If the EURO starts to show it too I’m all in…. WB 12Z CAN. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jayyy Posted January 29, 2023 Share Posted January 29, 2023 12z CMC would be a nice hit on late Sunday into early Monday between i81 and i95 corridors That low gets to 970mb just NE of the benchmark with precip spanning from Maine to NC. Precip / temp details aside, that’s an impressive storm. If there was a high to the north to supply cold air and slow things down a bit… WOOF. It’s a quick mover, which limits its upside, but it packs a nice punch.. 5 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chris78 Posted January 29, 2023 Share Posted January 29, 2023 1 hour ago, Weather Will said: GFS and Can have teased an east coast storm Rain/snow line TBD for the Sun. Mon period since 12Z yesterday. If the EURO starts to show it too I’m all in…. WB 12Z CAN. There's @psuhoffman thing strip of Frozen lol 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
NorthArlington101 Posted January 29, 2023 Share Posted January 29, 2023 EURO looks better for Wednesday - don’t know if it’s gonna be enough but it looks more like a consolidated “storm” 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted January 29, 2023 Author Share Posted January 29, 2023 1 minute ago, NorthArlington101 said: EURO looks better for Wednesday - don’t know if it’s gonna be enough but it looks more like a consolidated “storm” Stays south 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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