January/February Mid/Long Range Disco IV: A New Hope

[Weather Will]

41 minutes ago, BristowWx said:

Does the 6z euro like this?  0z did not 

No….

[IronTy]

2 hours ago, Weather Will said:

WB 6Z GFS…. Where will the pencil thin band of 1-3 inches land???

Right over Calvert county, thank you very much.  

[Ravens94]

There are a few big hits still in the ensembles 6z GFS appears to be trying to head to the right direction let's see what happens today. Thinking it will get better for this week 

[Bob Chill]

5 hours ago, Ruin said:

its sad we keep grabbing onto the next storm the next storm will have enough cold will be in the right spot. then a few days it changes trends worse.

This hobby is a process similar to death by a thousand cuts without the death part. I mean you can die from it and stuff but it takes waaaay more than 1000 cuts. 

If you sit back and just look at winters for what they are as they progress, it gets much easier. I've been expecting everything to morph and fade like it has simply because it's been doing it basically all winter.

Winter personality is something I mention often. It's a very subjective term but the essence of it is a quantum calculation in your head that produces a strong gut feel. No specifics. Just kind of an "aha! I see what's going on here!" feeling. I've grown to trust it and while I certainly get stuff plenty wrong in all directions, on avg my expectations seem to match conditions quite well and that removes negative emotions and all the "fun" circular thinking that goes with it. 

There's literally 7 weeks of solid snow climo left. Especially for bigger events. This is the beginning of prime time for that. It could easily snow here this year and we can get a big storm. But given this winter's incredibly persistent personality, it's unlikely to rush thru the door. Right now, "tracking" is just chasing the crack in the door at long ranges. It may never crack open. I'm waiting for that crack to be at hour -24 before getting excited. Until then, CAPE does a masterful job at updating morning thoughts and I trust his words 100%. I just read that daily and drive tractors 

[Scarlet Pimpernel]

1 minute ago, Bob Chill said:

This hobby is a process similar to death by a thousand cuts without the death part. I mean you can die from it and stuff but it takes waaaay more than 1000 cuts. 

If you sit back and just look at winters for what they are as they progress, it gets much easier. I've been expecting everything to morph and fade like it has simply because it's been doing it basically all winter.

Winter personality is something I mention often. It's a very subjective term but the essence of it is a quantum calculation in your head that produces a strong gut feel. No specifics. Just kind of an "aha! I see what's going on here!" feeling. I've grown to trust it and while I certainly get stuff plenty wrong in all directions, on avg my expectations seem to match conditions quite well and that removes negative emotions and all the "fun" circular thinking that goes with it. 

There's literally 7 weeks of solid snow climo left. Especially for bigger events. This is the beginning of prime time for that. It could easily snow here this year and we can get a big storm. But given this winter's incredibly persistent personality, it's unlikely to rush thru the door. Right now, "tracking" is just chasing the crack in the door at long ranges. It may never crack open. I'm waiting for that crack to be at hour -24 before getting excited. Until then, CAPE does a masterful job at updating morning thoughts and I trust his words 100%. I just read that daily and drive tractors 

Right. It's very easy to get all caught up in the weeds (every detail of every model run!), and I admit to doing that somewhat myself at times.  It's pretty evident what the character of this winter has been.  I have joked about "hell, let's just go for the shutout, who cares at this point!", but in all honesty I kind of think along the same lines you do.  We'll see snow.  It may not be at the most ideal time that many in here care for (late Feb or Mar), but I think we'll see something other than a slushy coating.  Not sure why, but I would not be surprised at all if we get a decent, trackable event heading into March.  Or something that kind of sneaks up on us.  Not a big storm, but something of warning-level criteria.  Maybe I feel like this because that has happened before, where we get a consolation prize of sorts near the end of winter after a craptastic season.  Or I'm just crazy for hoping, LOL!!  Probably more of the latter.

[Solution Man]

3 minutes ago, Always in Zugzwang said:

Right. It's very easy to get all caught up in the weeds (every detail of every model run!), and I admit to doing that somewhat myself at times.  It's pretty evident what the character of this winter has been.  I have joked about "hell, let's just go for the shutout, who cares at this point!", but in all honesty I kind of think along the same lines you do.  We'll see snow.  It may not be at the most ideal time that many in here care for (late Feb or Mar), but I think we'll see something other than a slushy coating.  Not sure why, but I would not be surprised at all if we get a decent, trackable event heading into March.  Or something that kind of sneaks up on us.  Not a big storm, but something of warning-level criteria.  Maybe I feel like this because that has happened before, where we get a consolation prize of sorts near the end of winter after a craptastic season.  Or I'm just crazy for hoping, LOL!!  Probably more of the latter.

That’s right, WEEDS are what we are going to have soon along with our paper cuts as we struggle to pull them

[Scarlet Pimpernel]

16 minutes ago, Solution Man said:

That’s right, WEEDS are what we are going to have soon along with our paper cuts as we struggle to pull them

Like pulling thistles without gloves!!

[Stormchaserchuck1]

I keep saying this but I think Days 13-16 are going to bust/trend colder. Maybe a little -EPO/+PNA setup. 

[Ralph Wiggum]

1 hour ago, Bob Chill said:

This hobby is a process similar to death by a thousand cuts without the death part. I mean you can die from it and stuff but it takes waaaay more than 1000 cuts. 

If you sit back and just look at winters for what they are as they progress, it gets much easier. I've been expecting everything to morph and fade like it has simply because it's been doing it basically all winter.

Winter personality is something I mention often. It's a very subjective term but the essence of it is a quantum calculation in your head that produces a strong gut feel. No specifics. Just kind of an "aha! I see what's going on here!" feeling. I've grown to trust it and while I certainly get stuff plenty wrong in all directions, on avg my expectations seem to match conditions quite well and that removes negative emotions and all the "fun" circular thinking that goes with it. 

There's literally 7 weeks of solid snow climo left. Especially for bigger events. This is the beginning of prime time for that. It could easily snow here this year and we can get a big storm. But given this winter's incredibly persistent personality, it's unlikely to rush thru the door. Right now, "tracking" is just chasing the crack in the door at long ranges. It may never crack open. I'm waiting for that crack to be at hour -24 before getting excited. Until then, CAPE does a masterful job at updating morning thoughts and I trust his words 100%. I just read that daily and drive tractors 

Agreed 1000%. A handful of us knew by Thanksgiving that we were toast this winter....but most of us refrained from Debbing and still deep inside hoped for some sort of fluke or reversal....and some continue to remain patient in hopes of a backloaded type deal. Atmospheric memory is a real thing...well, not 'memory' as it doesn't have a mind BUT similar outcomes repeat themselves over and over throughout a season as you noted. We hope for something to reshuffle things but most of the time we wait.....and wait.....and wait. We could still fluke into something later in Feb or March we've seen this period is  becoming more volatile and convoluted in recent years. So we hold out hope, but iykyk.

[Eskimo Joe]

1 minute ago, Ralph Wiggum said:

Agreed 1000%. A handful of us knew by Thanksgiving that we were toast this winter....but most of us refrained from Debbing and still deep inside hoped for some sort of fluke or reversal. Atmospheric memory is a real thing...well, not 'memory' as it doesn't have a mind BUT similar outcomes repeat themselves over and over throughout a season as you noted. We hope for something to reshuffle things but most of the time tlwe wait.....and wait.....and wait. We could still fluke into something later in Feb or March we've seen this period is  ecoming more volatile and convoluted in recent years. So we hold out hope, but iykyk.

I held hope until after that cold shot in December was over. It became obvious by New Years Day we were probably be staring another shutout winter in the face.

[psuhoffman]

0z combined ens probability through Feb 6

1”: 36%
3”: 10%
6”: 5%
 

Unless this period makes a comeback at 12z it’s provably time to move on and start tracking through Feb 12 since there are some attempts at false hope in the Feb 7-10 range.  There is the chance of 1-2” somewhere with wave 1 but that’s honestly best tracked with the operational runs at this point.  The main threat we were tracking in this period looks like a fail at this point  

 

 

[Ralph Wiggum]

Just now, Eskimo Joe said:

I held hope until after that cold shot in December was over. It became obvious by New Years Day we were probably be staring another shutout winter in the face.

Yeah, that was probably a good date as an indicator. Background state was already laid out by Dec 1 then the avocado TPV came and we thought "well, maybe this is different". But even with an odd Nina base (more super Nino at times) we still couldn't get things to sync up properly. Other factors were at play too and still are that are mucking things up even with perfect tracks in prime climo.

[Eskimo Joe]

4 minutes ago, Ralph Wiggum said:

Yeah, that was probably a good date as an indicator. Background state was already laid out by Dec 1 then the avocado TPV came and we thought "well, maybe this is different". But even with an odd Nina base (more super Nino at times) we still couldn't get things to sync up properly. Other factors were at play too and still are that are mucking things up even with perfect tracks in prime climo.

Watch us get a raging east based El Nino next year.

[yoda]

12z RGEM remains a nice hit Wednesday morning 

[yoda]

[psuhoffman]

24 minutes ago, Eskimo Joe said:

Watch us get a raging east based El Nino next year.

If we can only get what used to be a normal amount of snow during one specific type of one specific enso state that happens 1/15 years…

[Weather Will]

12Z ICON also throws a little light snow in N. Zones overnight Tuesday.

[yoda]

Nudge north on 12z GFS at 51 compared to 06z at 48 re snow

[BristowWx]

2 minutes ago, yoda said:

Nudge north on 12z GFS at 51 compared to 06z at 48 re snow

Right along the 540.  Interesting 

[Cobalt]

7 minutes ago, yoda said:

Nudge north on 12z GFS at 51 compared to 06z at 48 re snow

Curious as to if the GFS is keying in on the wrong wave entirely. It's been persistent in bringing a band of snow to the S part of our area near 18z Tuesday, meanwhile the rgem, ggem, and icon have been focusing more on 6z Wednesday. Interesting nonetheless 

 

edit: GFS did nudge North with the Wednesday precip, but by just a small margin.

[yoda]

 

[Weather Will]

Mulch topper at best with surface temps at or above freezing on Tuesday.  WB 12Z GFS.

[87storms]

Still a whole lot of nothing on the GFS further north.  The entire system gets sheared out with none of those boundary waves looking like big precip producers.  The late week system looks like the one to keep an eye on given the cold airmass in place.

[yoda]

1 minute ago, Weather Will said:

Mulch topper at best with surface temps at or above freezing on Tuesday.  WB 12Z GFS.

Uh, the snow is falling at the 32 degrees region

[Weather Will]

WB 12Z GFS thru midweek: hilarious or pathetic depending on your point of view….

[Weather Will]

4 minutes ago, yoda said:

Uh, the snow is falling at the 32 degrees region

Light snow is not going to stick in the middle of the day at 32 this time of year, especially since ground temperatures are warm.

[yoda]

I'll take the 1-2 inches the GFS and RGEM show any day 

[DarkSharkWX]

2 minutes ago, Weather Will said:

WB 12Z GFS thru midweek: hilarious or pathetic depending on your point of view….

Show positive snow depth increase

[clskinsfan]

CMC pretty nice as well. Although I think its short range is based on the RGEM. 

[Weather Will]

3 minutes ago, DarkSharkWX said:

Show positive snow depth increase

WB 12Z GFS.  Get out the microscope.