Stormchaserchuck1 Posted January 29, 2023 Share Posted January 29, 2023 I think this is a pretty big model error coming in at -PNA Days 14-16 on gfs ensembles (haven't seen 18z yet). Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Weather Will Posted January 29, 2023 Share Posted January 29, 2023 I was a kid in the late 60’s-70s and back then lived just outside the Beltway in PG. First 10 years of my life, 50% of those years had 10 inches or less….the first big snowstorm I remember is 1978, calm down everyone…. 2 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ralph Wiggum Posted January 29, 2023 Share Posted January 29, 2023 1 hour ago, stormtracker said: Hear me out...the wave behind the wave...... Waving it goodbye is more like it 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ralph Wiggum Posted January 29, 2023 Share Posted January 29, 2023 1 hour ago, CAPE said: Time for another relax- reload- reset. Blow it up. Damn this old fashioned is good. Kinda winged it. When Roger Smith's astronomical telleconnections and solar voices can't even produce, we're fooked 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ralph Wiggum Posted January 29, 2023 Share Posted January 29, 2023 1 hour ago, CAPE said: Late Feb to mid March is gonna be our time. Maybe. The extended products look pretty good. CFS says we rock in March with a gradient pattern but we've seen this song and dance before. But the SSWE, the solar flares, and the WDI gotta mean something. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dallen7908 Posted January 29, 2023 Share Posted January 29, 2023 If we don't score during the next 10 days. CPC is still onboard for a rocking late February and hopefully early March. Best not to read their discussion of week 3 and early week 4. Yes a lot of qualifiers! Should the MJO's propagation continue into phases 8 and 1 along with the prior forcing from phases 5, 6, and 7, there is a possibility that troughing may try to establish over the eastern CONUS during the end of Week 4 in conjunction with the development of a negative NAO, which could lead to colder temperatures across the East and Southeast. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Terpeast Posted January 29, 2023 Share Posted January 29, 2023 Yes it’s not even Feb yet, and I’m already punting to next winter. Might as well get the shutout year out of the way, because I’m 90% certain we won’t have back-to-back shutout seasons. Let’s just hope we don’t get an east-based +3 nino… otherwise all bets are off 3 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stormchaserchuck1 Posted January 29, 2023 Share Posted January 29, 2023 I guess it was cloudy today (-AO pick up on models) 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
frd Posted January 29, 2023 Share Posted January 29, 2023 8 minutes ago, Terpeast said: Yes it’s not even Feb yet, and I’m already punting to next winter. Might as well get the shutout year out of the way, because I’m 90% certain we won’t have back-to-back shutout seasons. Let’s just hope we don’t get an east-based +3 nino… otherwise all bets are off Pretty clear its over and has been since even before the late December arctic invasion. I have given into the psu snow rational posts and it has enlightened me, as I feel relaxed seeing this winter just go away. Only issue is that we may see a lot more of these winters in the years ahead. 1 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ralph Wiggum Posted January 29, 2023 Share Posted January 29, 2023 7 minutes ago, dallen7908 said: If we don't score during the next 10 days. CPC is still onboard for a rocking late February and hopefully early March. Best not to read their discussion of week 3 and early week 4. Yes a lot of qualifiers! Should the MJO's propagation continue into phases 8 and 1 along with the prior forcing from phases 5, 6, and 7, there is a possibility that troughing may try to establish over the eastern CONUS during the end of Week 4 in conjunction with the development of a negative NAO, which could lead to colder temperatures across the East and Southeast. Yeah, and no disrespect to them but "should" cold air settle into the east and "if" moisture meets up with it at the right time it "could" lead to snow somewhere. I'm telling ya, even some of the pros are perplexed attm. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
clskinsfan Posted January 29, 2023 Share Posted January 29, 2023 2 hours ago, Ji said: The SER shouldnt be a dominant feature on paper. The SER is dominate because the west coast trough has been dominate. You cant have a suppressed SER with a trough on the west coast without some kind of ridiculous blocking. Edit: And by the way. What the hell happened to the PV getting beaten to death? That just kind of disappeared into lala land. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Terpeast Posted January 29, 2023 Share Posted January 29, 2023 10 minutes ago, frd said: Pretty clear its over and has been since even before the late December arctic invasion. I have given into the psu snow rational posts and it has enlightened me, as I feel relaxed seeing this winter just go away. Only issue is that we may see a lot more of these winters in the years ahead. May be the case. Looks like a lot more trips to deep creek, colorado, and if I’m really itching for a 36” blizzard, Lake Tahoe. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Weather Will Posted January 29, 2023 Share Posted January 29, 2023 WB 18Z GEFS…. The upcoming week may be a bust but the ensemble still gives us a shot the second week of February. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted January 29, 2023 Share Posted January 29, 2023 The SER is dominate because the west coast trough has been dominate. You cant have a suppressed SER with a trough on the west coast without some kind of ridiculous blocking. Edit: And by the way. What the hell happened to the PV getting beaten to death? That just kind of disappeared into lala land. The warming was decent but not major...the wind never reversed....so minor ssw not major so easy to recover:( 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Snowmadness Posted January 29, 2023 Share Posted January 29, 2023 P16 will keep everyone happy..lol…seems like we really need a -NAO and +PNA to occur at the same time. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
uncletim Posted January 29, 2023 Share Posted January 29, 2023 25 minutes ago, Terpeast said: Yes it’s not even Feb yet, and I’m already punting to next winter. Might as well get the shutout year out of the way, because I’m 90% certain we won’t have back-to-back shutout seasons. Let’s just hope we don’t get an east-based +3 nino… otherwise all bets are off It’s been so not close to snowing that they haven’t even brined around here once, which normally happens even when there’s coldish rain forecast. So, at least this year thousands of tons of salt won’t end up in the streams. There - silver lining found. 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted January 29, 2023 Share Posted January 29, 2023 Worst ssw ever 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stormchaserchuck1 Posted January 29, 2023 Share Posted January 29, 2023 9 minutes ago, Ji said: Worst ssw ever (Maybe that's why they're picking up a -PNA at Days 14-16?) -AO's/-NAO's have a ~+15-20 day lag from SSW at that time of year. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Eskimo Joe Posted January 29, 2023 Share Posted January 29, 2023 5 hours ago, Stormchaserchuck1 said: If Nino 1+2 is already warm we will probably be going into El Nino. May has been the month where it backs off or goes full forward lately. If we get an east based El Nino next year people are going to jump off the Bay Bridge. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Weather Will Posted January 29, 2023 Share Posted January 29, 2023 19Z NBM compared to 01Z…. 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Lucketts Life Posted January 29, 2023 Share Posted January 29, 2023 3 hours ago, Ji said: every model run feels like an Adam Dunn at Bat...strike out after strike out after strike out But you could always count on the home run happening before too long. This winter would be the equivalent of Dunn going 0/44. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
SnowenOutThere Posted January 29, 2023 Share Posted January 29, 2023 2 hours ago, Weather Will said: I was a kid in the late 60’s-70s and back then lived just outside the Beltway in PG. First 10 years of my life, 50% of those years had 10 inches or less….the first big snowstorm I remember is 1978, calm down everyone…. As a teen I grew up in the past 7 years so don’t go trying to figure out who has had it worse for childhood snow. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
pazzo83 Posted January 29, 2023 Share Posted January 29, 2023 3 hours ago, Always in Zugzwang said: Well who knows...maybe we'll back our way into some decent March event! I know several here don't care for March snows, but I don't mind them! We've had some good ones over the years. And at this point with January gone, and February going...going...(gone?), I'd take a solid event in March (or later February) if we happened to get one. (Speaking of "Morch"...I remember the absolute real March torch we got in 2012!! 80 degree days, and the cherry blossoms were in full bloom by St. Paddy's Day! It was ridiculous. I think that also led into a hot summer, when we had back-to-back Julys with 100+ temps...ugh! I remember that because I was playing softball at the time and it was awful! ) 2012 March was one of those "it's so warm right now and it's not supposed to be that this feels unsettling" moments. I was on a business trip in Chicago and I got up for an early morning run (around 7am) and it was in the upper 60s out. Like mid fuckin summer. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rtd208 Posted January 29, 2023 Share Posted January 29, 2023 Wondering when someone is going to break out the Swiss model, that might show snow. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted January 29, 2023 Share Posted January 29, 2023 Wondering when someone is going to break out the Swiss model, that might show snow. How bout this 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ravens94 Posted January 29, 2023 Share Posted January 29, 2023 18z GEFS had some nice hitting ensembles later in the week next week. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Terpeast Posted January 29, 2023 Share Posted January 29, 2023 7 minutes ago, Ji said: How bout this This will be the 5th time I see a rain/sleet mix at the onset this winter. Pass. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted January 29, 2023 Share Posted January 29, 2023 This will be the 5th time I see a rain/sleet mix at the onset this winter. Pass.Trending colder...was rain past few runs 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Solution Man Posted January 29, 2023 Share Posted January 29, 2023 7 minutes ago, Ji said: 9 minutes ago, Terpeast said: This will be the 5th time I see a rain/sleet mix at the onset this winter. Pass. Trending colder...was rain past few runs Towel in hand Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stormchaserchuck1 Posted January 29, 2023 Share Posted January 29, 2023 18 minutes ago, Ji said: 20 minutes ago, Terpeast said: This will be the 5th time I see a rain/sleet mix at the onset this winter. Pass. Trending colder...was rain past few runs They like a high pressure in the -AO domain -PNA ridge near the Aleutians is really strong, too powerful to overcome, still not fully considered. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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