psuhoffman Posted January 28, 2023 Share Posted January 28, 2023 1 minute ago, stormtracker said: Hear me out...the wave behind the wave...... We’re due and all that Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted January 28, 2023 Share Posted January 28, 2023 1 hour ago, psuhoffman said: There have only been 2 warm neutral winters since 2000 and 4 since 1950. Way too small a sample to draw conclusions. But neutral is only within .5 of 0. Even a weak Nino often has muted impacts so I think it’s fair to lump all neutrals together. This is the composite for all neutral winters since 2000 We were discussing this the other day. Actually the flip in enso neutral winters accounts for a large portion of our degraded snow climo. From 1950 to 1993 neutral winters averaged 24” at BWI with 52% above avg. The last 30 years they avg 12” with 17% above avg. Enso neutral used to be almost as good as Nino and now it’s been the worst enso state the past 30 years by avg, median, and % above normal. The main cause us a persistent SER. @Terpeast speculated this winter is actually behaving more like a neutral than a Nina. I’ve also tried to point this out when people root for a Nina to fade but it’s too late. Once you enter winter it’s better if the Nina persists. Neutral is even worse! We actually have a better chance at a snowy Feb/Mar in a Nina that doesn’t fade lol you would think a neutral is a 50/50 type thing. like you ENSO shouldnt be driving the pattern as much as say your NAO/AO and PNA. The SER shouldnt be a dominant feature on paper. You would think you have bouts of wintry weather combined with bouts of warmth and you should be getting average snow lol. Thats how i would see it on paper. But if we get SE ridge in NINA and Neutral as the most dominant feature....were fooking done Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Maestrobjwa Posted January 28, 2023 Share Posted January 28, 2023 And after that...it's pretty much a shutout pattern, isn't it? All I saw on the EPS and GEFS earlier was +NAO far as the model eye can go, smh Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAPE Posted January 28, 2023 Share Posted January 28, 2023 Time for another relax- reload- reset. Blow it up. Damn this old fashioned is good. Kinda winged it. 1 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted January 28, 2023 Share Posted January 28, 2023 every model run feels like an Adam Dunn at Bat...strike out after strike out after strike out 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted January 28, 2023 Share Posted January 28, 2023 Just now, CAPE said: Time for another relax- reload- reset. Blow it up. Damn this old fashioned is good. Kinda winged it. its almost april Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted January 28, 2023 Share Posted January 28, 2023 1 minute ago, Ji said: were fooking done The cliffs notes version 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted January 28, 2023 Share Posted January 28, 2023 1 minute ago, Maestrobjwa said: And after that...it's pretty much a shutout pattern, isn't it? All I saw on the EPS and GEFS earlier was +NAO far as the model eye can go, smh yep--we are still owed our February Nina thing Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Solution Man Posted January 28, 2023 Share Posted January 28, 2023 Just now, Maestrobjwa said: And after that...it's pretty much a shutout pattern, isn't it? All I saw on the EPS and GEFS earlier was +NAO far as the model eye can go, smh It’s always been a shutout, but maybe we can luck into something…torch is coming fast Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kevin Reilly Posted January 28, 2023 Share Posted January 28, 2023 27 minutes ago, psuhoffman said: lol Looks like convective feedback 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAPE Posted January 28, 2023 Share Posted January 28, 2023 Just now, Ji said: its almost april Late Feb to mid March is gonna be our time. Maybe. The extended products look pretty good. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Maestrobjwa Posted January 28, 2023 Share Posted January 28, 2023 Just now, Solution Man said: It’s always been a shutout, but maybe we can luck into something…torch is coming fast Definitely gonna take something a bit flukey--Aside from an almost extinct clipper, I don't know what could even get us on the board. A front end thump deal maybe...Record for latest snowfall is Feb 21st. I don't know what happened in 1973, but it feels like we'd be hard pressed to get it, lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Amped Posted January 28, 2023 Share Posted January 28, 2023 Chasing in Greenland anyone? 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted January 28, 2023 Share Posted January 28, 2023 8 minutes ago, Maestrobjwa said: And after that...it's pretty much a shutout pattern, isn't it? All I saw on the EPS and GEFS earlier was +NAO far as the model eye can go, smh Hemispheric energies are low 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IronTy Posted January 28, 2023 Share Posted January 28, 2023 1 hour ago, stormtracker said: HH has GOT to deliver, right? New to the forums, eh? 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IronTy Posted January 28, 2023 Share Posted January 28, 2023 31 minutes ago, CAPE said: Looks a little better on WB 2-3 inches.. might chase FFS, South Carolina gets more snow than us this winter. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stormchaserchuck1 Posted January 28, 2023 Share Posted January 28, 2023 10 minutes ago, Amped said: Chasing in Greenland anyone? Good maybe we'll get some snow Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAPE Posted January 28, 2023 Share Posted January 28, 2023 5 minutes ago, Maestrobjwa said: Definitely gonna take something a bit flukey--Aside from an almost extinct clipper, I don't know what could even get us on the board. A front end thump deal maybe...Record for latest snowfall is Feb 21st. I don't know what happened in 1973, but it feels like we'd be hard pressed to get it, lol It wont be a clipper in this pattern. Our best chances before the pattern probably goes to crap for mid month are with these 2 periods, where there is the possibility of deep enough cold meeting up with some semblance of a shortwave that can actually toss some moisture northward enough. Maybe another shot around the 7th-8th. In each case there are issues and at best we are looking at a modest or mixed event. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted January 28, 2023 Share Posted January 28, 2023 15 minutes ago, psuhoffman said: The cliffs notes version the easiest way to get snow is to have the mean trough in the east lol. The easiest way to have that is a having a ridge in the west. How do we keep a ridge in the west? Seems like we need to start having PDO winters that are positive. https://www.ncei.noaa.gov/pub/data/cmb/ersst/v5/index/ersst.v5.pdo.dat the PDO has been very negative for a long time. We need to shift our SSTs out west --not sure how that happens? Nino? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
thunderbolt Posted January 28, 2023 Share Posted January 28, 2023 12 minutes ago, Amped said: Chasing in Greenland anyone? Just your every day 937mb blizzard Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted January 28, 2023 Share Posted January 28, 2023 No Morch this year Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAPE Posted January 28, 2023 Share Posted January 28, 2023 12 minutes ago, Ji said: No Morch this year TT graphics suck. That isn't awful. Better off looking at the weeklies though. GEFSx isn't a bad look for the end of Feb into March. Canadian extended looks the same. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted January 28, 2023 Share Posted January 28, 2023 i blame @Bob Chillfor this winter. He gave us so much hope in November..he never even posts in November! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted January 28, 2023 Share Posted January 28, 2023 9 minutes ago, CAPE said: TT graphics suck. That isn't awful. Better off looking at the weeklies though. GEFSx isn't a bad look for the end of Feb into March. Canadian extended looks the same. TT Graphics are definitely biased towards red or warmer colors. I need a weather website designed by a republican 4 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Scarlet Pimpernel Posted January 28, 2023 Share Posted January 28, 2023 17 minutes ago, Ji said: No Morch this year Well who knows...maybe we'll back our way into some decent March event! I know several here don't care for March snows, but I don't mind them! We've had some good ones over the years. And at this point with January gone, and February going...going...(gone?), I'd take a solid event in March (or later February) if we happened to get one. (Speaking of "Morch"...I remember the absolute real March torch we got in 2012!! 80 degree days, and the cherry blossoms were in full bloom by St. Paddy's Day! It was ridiculous. I think that also led into a hot summer, when we had back-to-back Julys with 100+ temps...ugh! I remember that because I was playing softball at the time and it was awful! ) 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Scarlet Pimpernel Posted January 28, 2023 Share Posted January 28, 2023 2 minutes ago, Ji said: TT Graphics are definitely biased towards red or warmer colors. I need a weather website designed by a republican LOL! Well, not to get overly political, but since you started it (haha!), I'd rather a lot more BLUE and purple on the map, myself!! 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Scarlet Pimpernel Posted January 28, 2023 Share Posted January 28, 2023 57 minutes ago, psuhoffman said: The cliffs notes version 10 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Solution Man Posted January 28, 2023 Share Posted January 28, 2023 Snow chances sports analogies Mid-Atlantic -(football)4th and goal from the 10 down by 8 2 mins left in game -(basketball) 69-61 down 8 with 3 mins left point guard fouled out -(golf) our player is down 2 holes with 3 holes to play in match play, our drive is in the tree line other guy in fairway 130 in -(hockey) We lead the next team by 2 points but they have 3 games in hand for final playoff spot -(baseball) We’re down 2-0 top of the 9th no outs bottom of the order up -(tennis) We’re down 30 Love 1st game 3rd set down 2 sets to none -(boxing) Our trainer has his hand on the towel 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Weather Will Posted January 29, 2023 Share Posted January 29, 2023 Why on January 28 are we punting all of February already…WB 12Z EPS was not horrible. 1 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stormchaserchuck1 Posted January 29, 2023 Share Posted January 29, 2023 14 minutes ago, Solution Man said: Snow chances sports analogies Mid-Atlantic -(football)4th and goal from the 10 down by 8 2 mins left in game -(basketball) 69-61 down 8 with 3 mins left point guard fouled out -(golf) our player is down 2 holes with 3 holes to play in match play, our drive is in the tree line other guy in fairway 130 in -(hockey) We lead the next team by 2 points but they have 3 games in hand for final playoff spot -(baseball) We’re down 2-0 top of the 9th no outs bottom of the order up -(tennis) We’re down 30 Love 1st game 3rd set down 2 sets to none -(boxing) Our trainer has his hand on the towel Eagles covering -2.5 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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