psuhoffman Posted January 28, 2023 Share Posted January 28, 2023 23 minutes ago, Ji said: 31 minutes ago, psuhoffman said: Too small a sample to draw conclusions but the last one was 2020 and the last 4 were all below below normal! Why...was there a se ridge? There have only been 2 warm neutral winters since 2000 and 4 since 1950. Way too small a sample to draw conclusions. But neutral is only within .5 of 0. Even a weak Nino often has muted impacts so I think it’s fair to lump all neutrals together. This is the composite for all neutral winters since 2000 We were discussing this the other day. Actually the flip in enso neutral winters accounts for a large portion of our degraded snow climo. From 1950 to 1993 neutral winters averaged 24” at BWI with 52% above avg. The last 30 years they avg 12” with 17% above avg. Enso neutral used to be almost as good as Nino and now it’s been the worst enso state the past 30 years by avg, median, and % above normal. The main cause us a persistent SER. @Terpeast speculated this winter is actually behaving more like a neutral than a Nina. I’ve also tried to point this out when people root for a Nina to fade but it’s too late. Once you enter winter it’s better if the Nina persists. Neutral is even worse! We actually have a better chance at a snowy Feb/Mar in a Nina that doesn’t fade Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stormchaserchuck1 Posted January 28, 2023 Share Posted January 28, 2023 6 minutes ago, psuhoffman said: There have only been 2 warm neutral winters since 2000 and 4 since 1950. Way too small a sample to draw conclusions. But neutral is only within .5 of 0. Even a weak Nino often has muted impacts so I think it’s fair to lump all neutrals together. This is the composite for all neutral winters since 2000 We were discussing this the other day. Actually the flip in enso neutral winters accounts for a large portion of our degraded snow climo. From 1950 to 1993 neutral winters averaged 24” at BWI with 52% above avg. The last 30 years they avg 12” with 17% above avg. Enso neutral used to be almost as good as Nino and now it’s been the worst enso state the past 30 years by avg, median, and % above normal. The main cause us a persistent SER. @Terpeast speculated this winter is actually behaving more like a neutral than a Nina. I’ve also tried to point this out when people root for a Nina to fade but it’s too late. Once you enter winter it’s better if the Nina persists. Neutral is even worse! We actually have a better chance at a snowy Feb/Mar in a Nina that doesn’t fade You'd be better off making conclusion based on subsurface ENSO.. higher correlation. by a pretty significant margin actually vs the surface difference An example is this year so far being more +PNA vs 10-year average,. when subsurface is +Neutral-weak El Nino vs surface La Nina Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted January 28, 2023 Author Share Posted January 28, 2023 21 minutes ago, IronTy said: "Episode V, the GFS strikes back. Stories of futility and despair in the Mid-Atlantic" I had the perfect title too . Whoever said a New Nope might be right. HH has GOT to deliver, right? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted January 28, 2023 Author Share Posted January 28, 2023 18 minutes ago, CAPE said: My last dank 120 for HH. Desperate times. Old Fashioned next. It's so hard to find a coveted 120 here. I searched and did find one store semi-close by. I'm going to wait until we are chasing the real deal and buy a 4 pack. They should be cheaper by then in 2024 1 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GATECH Posted January 28, 2023 Share Posted January 28, 2023 5 minutes ago, stormtracker said: I had the perfect title too . Whoever said a New Nope might be right. HH has GOT to deliver, right? …by delivers you mean disappointment. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Solution Man Posted January 28, 2023 Share Posted January 28, 2023 6 minutes ago, stormtracker said: It's so hard to find a coveted 120 here. I searched and did find one store semi-close by. I'm going to wait until we are chasing the real deal and buy a 4 pack. They should be cheaper by then in 2024 You got the mic? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted January 28, 2023 Author Share Posted January 28, 2023 8 minutes ago, Solution Man said: You got the mic? Yeah. Don't hate me when I have to deliver the bad news Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted January 28, 2023 Author Share Posted January 28, 2023 Some light stuff at 75...dusting type deal Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Solution Man Posted January 28, 2023 Share Posted January 28, 2023 5 minutes ago, stormtracker said: Yeah. Don't hate me when I have to deliver the bad news Good news coming Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted January 28, 2023 Author Share Posted January 28, 2023 4 minutes ago, Solution Man said: Good news coming Not sure I have any. Colder, but precip more souther approaching Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted January 28, 2023 Author Share Posted January 28, 2023 S/W slight more amp'd at 108, but the confluence is a tad more suppressive Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted January 28, 2023 Author Share Posted January 28, 2023 10 minutes ago, Solution Man said: Good news coming No good news. . I'm sorry 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dailylurker Posted January 28, 2023 Share Posted January 28, 2023 5 minutes ago, stormtracker said: Not sure I have any. Colder, but precip more souther approaching I hope VA Beach gets it's annual blizzard. 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted January 28, 2023 Share Posted January 28, 2023 lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Solution Man Posted January 28, 2023 Share Posted January 28, 2023 3 minutes ago, stormtracker said: No good news. . I'm sorry Oh well Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted January 28, 2023 Share Posted January 28, 2023 3 minutes ago, stormtracker said: No good news. . I'm sorry There is just no win to be had here. Until we see stream interaction in which there is actually a legit frozen representation to the north of storms at or south of our latitude…we are just rearranging deck chairs. There is no real path. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted January 28, 2023 Author Share Posted January 28, 2023 Just now, psuhoffman said: There is just no win to be had here. Until we see stream interaction in which there is actually a legit frozen representation to the north of storms at or south of our latitude…we are just rearranging deck chairs. There is no real path. Yeah, I'm calling this one and hoping there's something behind it. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted January 28, 2023 Share Posted January 28, 2023 2 minutes ago, Maestrobjwa said: Actually ya do get snow into NC in the next panel... Impressive! but actually check the thermals. Surface temps are 34-37. White rain. 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Maestrobjwa Posted January 28, 2023 Share Posted January 28, 2023 Just now, psuhoffman said: Impressive! but actually check the thermals. Surface temps are 34-37. White rain. There's a reason I deleted that post, lol 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted January 28, 2023 Author Share Posted January 28, 2023 2 minutes ago, stormtracker said: Yeah, I'm calling this one and hoping there's something behind it. There are two s/w behind it, but definitely not in synch to phase like 12z Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAPE Posted January 28, 2023 Share Posted January 28, 2023 Looks a little better on WB 2-3 inches.. might chase 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted January 28, 2023 Share Posted January 28, 2023 1 minute ago, stormtracker said: There are two s/w behind it, but definitely not in synch to phase like 12z Every once in a while a crazy anomaly happens. But on that 12z run things went like 95% right and it still didn’t work with that next wave. Last weekend we had a perfect track coastal and no one even noticed as it was raining. We’re in real bad shape. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted January 28, 2023 Share Posted January 28, 2023 Just now, CAPE said: Looks a little better on WB 2-3 inches.. might chase In the higher elevation of western NC sure. But no one under like 700 feet is getting accumulation with those boundary thermals. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted January 28, 2023 Author Share Posted January 28, 2023 5 minutes ago, stormtracker said: There are two s/w behind it, but definitely not in synch to phase like 12z Nevermind. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted January 28, 2023 Author Share Posted January 28, 2023 Plenty cold too...problem is squished s/w Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted January 28, 2023 Author Share Posted January 28, 2023 Something tries to get going off the SC coast at 200, but s/w is positively tilted...going out to sea Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted January 28, 2023 Share Posted January 28, 2023 So close Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted January 28, 2023 Author Share Posted January 28, 2023 Just now, psuhoffman said: So close Hear me out...the wave behind the wave...... 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted January 28, 2023 Share Posted January 28, 2023 6 minutes ago, stormtracker said: Plenty cold too...problem is squished s/w It’s only cold because the wave is 500 miles south of us. Had it amplified and come north the boundary would have also. We’ve seen this run after run. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted January 28, 2023 Share Posted January 28, 2023 its amazing how precip just wont enter the Northern Virginia sector at all in these runs Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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