LP08 Posted January 28, 2023 Share Posted January 28, 2023 Bullseye almost 5 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ralph Wiggum Posted January 28, 2023 Share Posted January 28, 2023 8 minutes ago, LP08 said: Bullseye almost Tracking the 5 mile wide swath of white rain for next week sure makes for tons of fun. 1 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted January 28, 2023 Share Posted January 28, 2023 Well... next Saturday 12z Euro says it's 21 degrees for high temps at DCA 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Daniel Boone Posted January 28, 2023 Share Posted January 28, 2023 2 hours ago, windycutter said: On the above gif, It appears that the High comes in to late with a low pushing through the north of New England. Wouldn't the Low be problematic? Regardless of what precip field that's showing, verbatim that's high elevation mountains heavy snow NC and VA . Thickness appears to be shown as ab out 543 in those area's. As long as 850 is 0 to -2T C. . Of course, does most of us no good. Hopefully, more cold will be injected than modeled. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
yoda Posted January 28, 2023 Share Posted January 28, 2023 Single digits and low teens Friday night next week... yay? 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stormchaserchuck1 Posted January 28, 2023 Share Posted January 28, 2023 Wetter than average/-NAO December's evolves into +NAO February's Drier than average/+NAO December's evolves into -NAO February's 75 years of basis.. pretty cool correlation there. The Feb NAO signal> Dec NAO(pick and choose) *wetter/drier than average across the US Strong -PNA December's = -PNA/+NAO February's at 0.68 correlation Strong +PNA December's = +PNA/-NAO February's at 0.70 correlation 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Rvarookie Posted January 28, 2023 Share Posted January 28, 2023 4 minutes ago, yoda said: Single digits and low teens Friday night next week... yay? Nah. 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
clueless Posted January 28, 2023 Share Posted January 28, 2023 3 minutes ago, yoda said: Single digits and low teens Friday night next week... yay? And zippo precip? Perfect. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DarkSharkWX Posted January 28, 2023 Share Posted January 28, 2023 nino 1+2 has made it into positive territory and is continuing to rise i think by next year we should at the very least be in a warm netural 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Maestrobjwa Posted January 28, 2023 Share Posted January 28, 2023 12 minutes ago, DarkSharkWX said: nino 1+2 has made it into positive territory and is continuing to rise i think by next year we should at the very least be in a warm netural Warm neutral isn't gonna do much good...If we're already trending warmer, doesn't that make a case for a more established niño next winter? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DarkSharkWX Posted January 28, 2023 Share Posted January 28, 2023 2 minutes ago, Maestrobjwa said: Warm neutral isn't gonna do much good...If we're already trending warmer, doesn't that make a case for a more established niño next winter? yeah i think we'll get into some form of an El Nino.. hopefully moderate to strong Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted January 28, 2023 Share Posted January 28, 2023 Warm neutral isn't gonna do much good...If we're already trending warmer, doesn't that make a case for a more established niño next winter?Warm neutral is prob better than nina.... 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stormchaserchuck1 Posted January 28, 2023 Share Posted January 28, 2023 If Nino 1+2 is already warm we will probably be going into El Nino. May has been the month where it backs off or goes full forward lately. 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Daniel Boone Posted January 28, 2023 Share Posted January 28, 2023 1 hour ago, Stormchaserchuck1 said: We actually have some pretty big pressure hitting the coast of Alaska today, and it's so warm out.. feels like 50. If the -PNA/+NAO that these LR models are showing verifies it will be 60s/70s ^look how this is kind of a 180*/from today, and it's still so warm out. Pressure breaching the N. Pacific is definitely a staple of this time. (I still think there is a +PNA signal 2nd week of February, will be interesting to see how this evolves.) Yeah, many have punted mid Feb as very mild due to lrg and MJO warm phase forecast by most guidance. Hopefully, MJO avoids those phases then . Would be our luck to get a + PNA then and the MJO foul us up then. It's just that type Winter. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Maestrobjwa Posted January 28, 2023 Share Posted January 28, 2023 34 minutes ago, Ji said: 41 minutes ago, Maestrobjwa said: Warm neutral isn't gonna do much good...If we're already trending warmer, doesn't that make a case for a more established niño next winter? Warm neutral is prob better than nina.... Yeah but if neutrals are no longer working (the last two were awful), and a very weak niño a la 2018-19 doesn't work...we better hope for a legit one! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted January 28, 2023 Share Posted January 28, 2023 12 bwi ens probabilities through 0z 2/6/23 1”: 49% 3”: 29% 6”: 5% 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAPE Posted January 28, 2023 Share Posted January 28, 2023 3 hours ago, Chris78 said: I'm not even sure what to root for anymore. Spring. 3 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted January 28, 2023 Share Posted January 28, 2023 42 minutes ago, Ji said: 49 minutes ago, Maestrobjwa said: Warm neutral isn't gonna do much good...If we're already trending warmer, doesn't that make a case for a more established niño next winter? Warm neutral is prob better than nina.... Too small a sample to draw conclusions but the last one was 2020 and the last 4 were all below below normal! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stormchaserchuck1 Posted January 28, 2023 Share Posted January 28, 2023 QBO favorable with Strong El Nino could be awesome Flip this year for the NAO lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted January 28, 2023 Share Posted January 28, 2023 Too small a sample to draw conclusions but the last one was 2020 and the last 4 were all below below normal! Why...was there a se ridge? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Interstate Posted January 28, 2023 Share Posted January 28, 2023 Almost at 50 pages. Time for a new long/mid range thread. Since the other ones helped to change our luck. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted January 28, 2023 Author Share Posted January 28, 2023 3 minutes ago, Interstate said: Almost at 50 pages. Time for a new long/mid range thread. Since the other ones helped to change our luck. Nope, I got 10 more pages to go. We might pull it off. lol, no we won't. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Solution Man Posted January 28, 2023 Share Posted January 28, 2023 1 minute ago, stormtracker said: Nope, I got 10 more pages to go. We might pull it off. lol, no we won't. Happy hour still on tap 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
GATECH Posted January 28, 2023 Share Posted January 28, 2023 5 minutes ago, stormtracker said: Nope, I got 10 more pages to go. We might pull it off. lol, no we won't. Who ever opens the next long range thread, can I suggest it be called …. The SER Strikes Back 2 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAPE Posted January 28, 2023 Share Posted January 28, 2023 These 3 panels illustrate how problematic next week is. Flat, fast flow with weak strung out vorticity in the "southern stream", modified dry cold, and suppressed moisture feed. Need a robust shortwave to bring moisture northward, and even then the 'true cold' is too far north, associated with the W-E oriented TPV. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Maestrobjwa Posted January 28, 2023 Share Posted January 28, 2023 21 minutes ago, Ji said: 28 minutes ago, psuhoffman said: Too small a sample to draw conclusions but the last one was 2020 and the last 4 were all below below normal! Why...was there a se ridge? Well 2020 was the raging +AO...I'm sure psu can fill in the rest, lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IronTy Posted January 28, 2023 Share Posted January 28, 2023 19 minutes ago, stormtracker said: Nope, I got 10 more pages to go. We might pull it off. lol, no we won't. "Episode V, the GFS strikes back. Stories of futility and despair in the Mid-Atlantic" 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IronTy Posted January 28, 2023 Share Posted January 28, 2023 11 minutes ago, GATECH said: Who ever opens the next long range thread, can I suggest it be called …. The SER Strikes Back Lmao, beat me to the ESB reference 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAPE Posted January 28, 2023 Share Posted January 28, 2023 My last dank 120 for HH. Desperate times. Old Fashioned next. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted January 28, 2023 Share Posted January 28, 2023 23 minutes ago, Ji said: 31 minutes ago, psuhoffman said: Too small a sample to draw conclusions but the last one was 2020 and the last 4 were all below below normal! Why...was there a se ridge? There have only been 2 warm neutral winters since 2000 and 4 since 1950. Way too small a sample to draw conclusions. But neutral is only within .5 of 0. Even a weak Nino often has muted impacts so I think it’s fair to lump all neutrals together. This is the composite for all neutral winters since 2000 We were discussing this the other day. Actually the flip in enso neutral winters accounts for a large portion of our degraded snow climo. From 1950 to 1993 neutral winters averaged 24” at BWI with 52% above avg. The last 30 years they avg 12” with 17% above avg. Enso neutral used to be almost as good as Nino and now it’s been the worst enso state the past 30 years by avg, median, and % above normal. The main cause us a persistent SER. @Terpeast speculated this winter is actually behaving more like a neutral than a Nina. I’ve also tried to point this out when people root for a Nina to fade but it’s too late. Once you enter winter it’s better if the Nina persists. Neutral is even worse! We actually have a better chance at a snowy Feb/Mar in a Nina that doesn’t fade Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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