windycutter Posted January 28, 2023 Share Posted January 28, 2023 15 minutes ago, Ralph Wiggum said: CMC is out to sea so yeah. Oh but prior it is all rain, zero snow even with a massive polar fresh hp to the N. On the above gif, It appears that the High comes in to late with a low pushing through the north of New England. Wouldn't the Low be problematic? 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
anotherman Posted January 28, 2023 Share Posted January 28, 2023 3 minutes ago, Kevin Reilly said: Believe this to be a big factor in the winter of 2022-2023 Uh, yeah. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted January 28, 2023 Share Posted January 28, 2023 what are we even doing anymore??? 6 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ralph Wiggum Posted January 28, 2023 Share Posted January 28, 2023 Just now, psuhoffman said: what are we even doing anymore??? We are the new Georgia coast clime. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted January 28, 2023 Share Posted January 28, 2023 3 minutes ago, Ralph Wiggum said: We are the new Georgia coast clime. Our mid winter climo is acting like November. Yea it’s possible to snow but in November we knew even if everything went 95% right it would still fail most of the time because it was just too warm and takes an extremely anomalous event and rare confluence of every factor going perfectly to overcome that. Well welcome to mid winter and… 5 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
fujiwara79 Posted January 28, 2023 Share Posted January 28, 2023 15 minutes ago, IronTy said: I think it's fucking hilarious. Like me trying to post on an engineering forum without being able to mention math. Agreed. Why are some people so scared to even mention "CC" on an atmospheric science forum. It's so sensitive that we can't even spell it out; we have to acronymize it. Politics truly has become the new opiate of the masses. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted January 28, 2023 Share Posted January 28, 2023 38 minutes ago, stormtracker said: If that high hung back, we would have been destroyed. As is, there is some front end 26 minutes ago, Maestrobjwa said: Oh for just a little bit of blocking to keep the high there!! Look at the CMC. The high is perfect and it’s still all rain. It wouldn’t matter. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chris78 Posted January 28, 2023 Share Posted January 28, 2023 I'm not even sure what to root for anymore. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Interstate Posted January 28, 2023 Share Posted January 28, 2023 19 minutes ago, psuhoffman said: what are we even doing anymore??? I hate to say this... but it is not just us... it is the whole East Coast. This is not a Mid Atlantic Thing. It is just one of those years. I know someone up in Rochester NY... They have had one storm that has produced a 6 inches. 4 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Buddy1987 Posted January 28, 2023 Share Posted January 28, 2023 At this juncture I will literally take any type of crippling winter storm. I don’t give a shit if it’s 4” of sleet or 2” of ice. This year has been unreal. 2 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted January 28, 2023 Share Posted January 28, 2023 Forgot to update the 0z collective probabilities for 1”/3”/6” at bwi 1”: 50% 3”: 24% 6” 9% 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
clskinsfan Posted January 28, 2023 Share Posted January 28, 2023 50 minutes ago, anotherman said: The oceans are boiling. That is ground truth and not up for 'debate.' If you mean the north Atlantic then sure. If you are saying it's not debatable on a global scale you would be wrong: 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IronTy Posted January 28, 2023 Share Posted January 28, 2023 34 minutes ago, fujiwara79 said: Agreed. Why are some people so scared to even mention "CC" on an atmospheric science forum. It's so sensitive that we can't even spell it out; we have to acronymize it. Politics truly has become the new opiate of the masses. It seems a possible good compromise is being able to discuss a warming world (the fact that it's warming really isn't in question and there's empirical date that shows it) and what it's impacts are on our weather. What could be banned would be the whole "humans are causing it" debate which seems to be where politics comes in and things go off the rails. But I'm not a mod so it's easy for me to say since I don't do any administrative work on the forum. Maybe it would end up a disaster. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ralph Wiggum Posted January 28, 2023 Share Posted January 28, 2023 32 minutes ago, Chris78 said: I'm not even sure what to root for anymore. I'm not sure anyone does. Even many of the pros are perplexed. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ralph Wiggum Posted January 28, 2023 Share Posted January 28, 2023 28 minutes ago, psuhoffman said: Forgot to update the 0z collective probabilities for 1”/3”/6” at bwi 1”: 50% 3”: 24% 6” 9% Is this for the remainder of winter? Seems like it. 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
anotherman Posted January 28, 2023 Share Posted January 28, 2023 9 minutes ago, clskinsfan said: If you mean the north Atlantic then sure. If you are saying it's not debatable on a global scale you would be wrong: https://www.noaa.gov/news/2022-was-worlds-6th-warmest-year-on-record#:~:text=Below are highlights from NOAA's 2022 annual global climate report%3A&text=Earth's average land and ocean,in the 1880-2022 record. Global ocean heat content (OHC) hit a record high: The upper ocean heat content, which addresses the amount of heat stored in the upper 2,000 meters of the ocean, was record high in 2022, surpassing the previous record set in 2021. The four highest OHCs have all occurred in the last four years (2019-2022). 1 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stormchaserchuck1 Posted January 28, 2023 Share Posted January 28, 2023 8 minutes ago, anotherman said: https://www.noaa.gov/news/2022-was-worlds-6th-warmest-year-on-record#:~:text=Below are highlights from NOAA's 2022 annual global climate report%3A&text=Earth's average land and ocean,in the 1880-2022 record. Global ocean heat content (OHC) hit a record high: The upper ocean heat content, which addresses the amount of heat stored in the upper 2,000 meters of the ocean, was record high in 2022, surpassing the previous record set in 2021. The four highest OHCs have all occurred in the last four years (2019-2022). And the same February pattern is repeating as the last 4 years (as per current models). Mathematical odds of 5 strong -PNA's is actually pretty low. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Stormchaserchuck1 Posted January 28, 2023 Share Posted January 28, 2023 13 minutes ago, Ralph Wiggum said: Is this for the remainder of winter? Seems like it. I would say no snow through Valentine's day.. easy call 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MDScienceTeacher Posted January 28, 2023 Share Posted January 28, 2023 It seems a possible good compromise is being able to discuss a warming world (the fact that it's warming really isn't in question and there's empirical date that shows it) and what it's impacts are on our weather. What could be banned would be the whole "humans are causing it" debate which seems to be where politics comes in and things go off the rails. But I'm not a mod so it's easy for me to say since I don't do any administrative work on the forum. Maybe it would end up a disaster. I am sorry… but what does cc stand for? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kevin Reilly Posted January 28, 2023 Share Posted January 28, 2023 54 minutes ago, Chris78 said: I'm not even sure what to root for anymore. Neither are the models Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
MDScienceTeacher Posted January 28, 2023 Share Posted January 28, 2023 I am sorry… but what does cc stand for?Oh haha climate change.. yeah that’s a sensitive topic… there is a lot of science out there that is pretty much undebatable. And I am pretty sure we are now seeing the outcomes first hand. It’s the find out part of it.. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
cbmclean Posted January 28, 2023 Share Posted January 28, 2023 1 hour ago, psuhoffman said: Look at the CMC. The high is perfect and it’s still all rain. It wouldn’t matter. Visiting this site I've learned a good bit about teleconnections but I have almost no knowledge of storm dynamics. I gather from your posts that with the track depicted, with the high position/strength as depicted it "should" snow. It is also my understanding that the precipitation starts as snow but melts on the way down. So putting those together I conclude that somewhere in the column the snow is encountering layers where the air is warmer than it "should" be given the track and high location/strength. Where does that anomalous layer start and what is the source of the anomaly? And yeah I know what the ultimate source of the anomaly is. I'm just talking the proximate cause. An example would be something like (I'm just making this up as an example) 1. "The air at 700 mb and below is being sourced from the NNE and the water there is +2 C warmer than the mean." Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kevin Reilly Posted January 28, 2023 Share Posted January 28, 2023 32 minutes ago, clskinsfan said: If you mean the north Atlantic then sure. If you are saying it's not debatable on a global scale you would be wrong: Guess we would have to calculate the square miles then find the difference between the two then compare and contrast. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxUSAF Posted January 28, 2023 Share Posted January 28, 2023 Do you all really need twice daily reminders not to talk climate change in this thread? 7 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Terpeast Posted January 28, 2023 Share Posted January 28, 2023 Just got back home and checked the model suite… looks to me that they’re becoming masters at pulling houdini acts from incoming snowstorms in the east coast. When they’re doing their best not to snow inside 5 days, maybe it’s time to hang it up this winter. The december cutter set the tone from the beginning. Luckily, we have the mountains within a 2-3 hour drive that get some upslope even in the worst pattern. Got my fix there, and I’m good until next year. If you need yours, it’s only a few hours away. Not that complicated. Next time I go, I want to stay a week and airbnb it. Or vbro. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted January 28, 2023 Share Posted January 28, 2023 50 minutes ago, Ralph Wiggum said: Is this for the remainder of winter? Seems like it. The rest of our lives 1 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted January 28, 2023 Share Posted January 28, 2023 24 minutes ago, WxUSAF said: Do you all really need twice daily reminders not to talk climate change in this thread? but what about talking about talking about climate change? I do think the compromise that its ok to talk about the affects of the fact it is getting warmer so long as we don't debate the cause or human involvement should avoid the politics side. I mean the fact it is warmer now than in recent recorded history isn't controversial or political. Its simply the debate over the cause that gets messy. But I defer to the bosses. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
fujiwara79 Posted January 28, 2023 Share Posted January 28, 2023 The GFS depicts deformation rain bands in early February. lol. 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted January 28, 2023 Share Posted January 28, 2023 Just now, fujiwara79 said: The GFS depicts deformation rain bands in early February. lol. Like I said...the whole run looks more like you would expect a run in early November to look. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
pazzo83 Posted January 28, 2023 Share Posted January 28, 2023 1 hour ago, Interstate said: I hate to say this... but it is not just us... it is the whole East Coast. This is not a Mid Atlantic Thing. It is just one of those years. I know someone up in Rochester NY... They have had one storm that has produced a 6 inches. yeah only your typical lake effect bullseye areas have seen anything noteworthy. And of course THAT is being driven by anomalously warm lake water temps. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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