BlizzardNole Posted January 28, 2023 Share Posted January 28, 2023 1 hour ago, LeesburgWx said: Have the spring threads opened up yet? This is pathetic Ah, spring. Just watch us finally get blocking and big coastal low in mid-April with low 40s and rain 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted January 28, 2023 Share Posted January 28, 2023 6 minutes ago, IronTy said: I understand the problem it causes but it is kinda ridiculous and difficult to avoid any mention of CC in a thread devoted to discussing weather when CC kinda impacts everything “weather”. The whole thing is stupid. 7 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kevin Reilly Posted January 28, 2023 Share Posted January 28, 2023 11 hours ago, Ji said: Ouch. What would Hitler say about this That right there is exactly what's been happening all winter. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mappy Posted January 28, 2023 Share Posted January 28, 2023 Y’all know we will end up getting a day long snow on March 22nd that amounts to nothing because sun angle season will have begun. Except PSU who will somehow measure 4” 1 1 10 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LP08 Posted January 28, 2023 Share Posted January 28, 2023 13 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Solution Man Posted January 28, 2023 Share Posted January 28, 2023 2 minutes ago, LP08 said: I can watch it snow across the street 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Maestrobjwa Posted January 28, 2023 Share Posted January 28, 2023 So this run does it only come north because of the dang GL low? Lol Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Solution Man Posted January 28, 2023 Share Posted January 28, 2023 Southern Md, western Md, most of NOVA and Central Va, snow at 114, Nothing for Ji yet Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Cobalt Posted January 28, 2023 Share Posted January 28, 2023 16 minutes ago, LP08 said: So close, but at least it's good to know that surface and 850 thermals and would suggest an actual shot of snow out of this as per the GFS depiction. Would like to see models juice this wave up as we enter range, as they've hinted off and on. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted January 28, 2023 Author Share Posted January 28, 2023 GFS at 171...high is in perfect position, strong sws to the west. Now watch this.... Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted January 28, 2023 Author Share Posted January 28, 2023 Cooking up something at 192. Still have CAD in place 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted January 28, 2023 Share Posted January 28, 2023 3 minutes ago, stormtracker said: GFS at 171...high is in perfect position, strong sws to the west. Now watch this.... So now Feb 7 is “the one” ? Oh and the high isn’t perfect, it’s 4.3 miles too far east and isn’t 1060. Fail. 5 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted January 28, 2023 Author Share Posted January 28, 2023 Snowing at 198 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted January 28, 2023 Author Share Posted January 28, 2023 1 minute ago, psuhoffman said: So now Feb 7 is “the one” ? Oh and the high isn’t perfect, it’s 4.3 miles too far east and isn’t 1060. Fail. Of course not. This is going to fail in the long term like all of the others 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kevin Reilly Posted January 28, 2023 Share Posted January 28, 2023 28 minutes ago, LP08 said: Bullseye!! Right where ya want it! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted January 28, 2023 Author Share Posted January 28, 2023 It's a really good setup. Loaded with potential. Snowing at 201...about to lose thermals tho Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted January 28, 2023 Author Share Posted January 28, 2023 Neg tilt at 204, but thermals 850 bisects DC. Freezing line north and west. We lose therms a 207. Juicy storm Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted January 28, 2023 Author Share Posted January 28, 2023 If that high hung back, we would have been destroyed. As is, there is some front end Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted January 28, 2023 Author Share Posted January 28, 2023 h5 map is glorious, but...warm :/. Looks like a general 2-4 across the area, but washed away after. Mountains crushed Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Maestrobjwa Posted January 28, 2023 Share Posted January 28, 2023 11 minutes ago, stormtracker said: If that high hung back, we would have been destroyed. As is, there is some front end Oh for just a little bit of blocking to keep the high there!! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IronTy Posted January 28, 2023 Share Posted January 28, 2023 2 hours ago, Ruin said: what the actual fuck with a Low that far south and east no way rain goes that far north the model is smoking something or bad data got in so bad data out You gotta love that closed 540 line almost down to the GoM coast. The big ones make their own cold air. 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ralph Wiggum Posted January 28, 2023 Share Posted January 28, 2023 13 minutes ago, stormtracker said: Neg tilt at 204, but thermals 850 bisects DC. Freezing line north and west. We lose therms a 207. Juicy storm So we are back to a day 8-9 threat. Do I have that right? OK, this has got to be the one....right? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ralph Wiggum Posted January 28, 2023 Share Posted January 28, 2023 7 minutes ago, Maestrobjwa said: Oh for just a little bit of blocking to keep the high there!! CMC is out to sea so yeah. Oh but prior it is all rain, zero snow even with a massive polar fresh hp to the N. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted January 28, 2023 Share Posted January 28, 2023 14 minutes ago, stormtracker said: It's a really good setup. Loaded with potential. Snowing at 201...about to lose thermals tho Man look at the progression of that storm. And it’s not a pac puke airmass there was an arctic high in front of it. Yes I know it moves out. Yes every one of the 500 variables didn’t go 100% perfect. But look at the h5 and surface progression. In early Feb. then look at the results. Tell me it doesn’t look the way you would expect if that was happening in early November or April not mid winter! 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IronTy Posted January 28, 2023 Share Posted January 28, 2023 50 minutes ago, LP08 said: Don't worry, the inevitable tick north has already started. SoMD will be dry slot in a couple runs. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IronTy Posted January 28, 2023 Share Posted January 28, 2023 1 hour ago, psuhoffman said: I understand the problem it causes but it is kinda ridiculous and difficult to avoid any mention of CC in a thread devoted to discussing weather when CC kinda impacts everything “weather”. The whole thing is stupid. I think it's fucking hilarious. Like me trying to post on an engineering forum without being able to mention math. 4 2 5 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kevin Reilly Posted January 28, 2023 Share Posted January 28, 2023 5 minutes ago, psuhoffman said: Man look at the progression of that storm. And it’s not a pac puke airmass there was an arctic high in front of it. Yes I know it moves out. Yes every one of the 500 variables didn’t go 100% perfect. But look at the h5 and surface progression. In early Feb. then look at the results. Tell me it doesn’t look the way you would expect if that was happening in early November or April not mid winter! Can someone check the ocean water temps New Jersey to Florida to see if we can cool the SSE flow directed up the coast. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
anotherman Posted January 28, 2023 Share Posted January 28, 2023 1 minute ago, Kevin Reilly said: Can someone check the ocean water temps New Jersey to Florida to see if we can cool the SSE flow directed up the coast. The oceans are boiling. That is ground truth and not up for 'debate.' 1 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IronTy Posted January 28, 2023 Share Posted January 28, 2023 2 minutes ago, Kevin Reilly said: Can someone check the ocean water temps New Jersey to Florida to see if we can cool the SSE flow directed up the coast. Nope 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Kevin Reilly Posted January 28, 2023 Share Posted January 28, 2023 2 minutes ago, anotherman said: The oceans are boiling. That is ground truth and not up for 'debate.' Believe this to be a big factor in the winter of 2022-2023 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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