CAPE Posted January 28, 2023 Share Posted January 28, 2023 EPS mean snowfall Wed-Thursday period: 1 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IronTy Posted January 28, 2023 Share Posted January 28, 2023 Wtf even northern Maine is all rain on the upcoming storm. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ralph Wiggum Posted January 28, 2023 Share Posted January 28, 2023 It befuddles me how we can get a Nina-ish SER base but once there is any semblance of a cold push instead of the SER fighting and creating lift and overunning it just folds and the entire flow gets squashed and sheared/shredded in this progressive pattern. I know it's Nina, progressive is common but seeing zero lift with a H5 look that would suggest such is absolutely mind-boggling. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAPE Posted January 28, 2023 Share Posted January 28, 2023 5 minutes ago, IronTy said: Wtf even northern Maine is all rain on the upcoming storm. You sure? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WxUSAF Posted January 28, 2023 Share Posted January 28, 2023 At least this time we made it to D5-6 with digital blue! Progress! At this rate, by late April we’re gonna cash in! 2 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chris78 Posted January 28, 2023 Share Posted January 28, 2023 None of the moisture wants to play in the colder air. Either it's shunted south or if it does comes north the thermal boundary races north and the rain/snow line is up in NY. So F'ing frustrating. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mappy Posted January 28, 2023 Share Posted January 28, 2023 8 minutes ago, Chris78 said: None of the moisture wants to play in the colder air. Either it's shunted south or if it does comes north the thermal boundary races north and the rain/snow line is up in NY. So F'ing frustrating. We haven’t sacrificed enough, need half the forum to go out of town or something 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ralph Wiggum Posted January 28, 2023 Share Posted January 28, 2023 10 minutes ago, Chris78 said: None of the moisture wants to play in the colder air. Either it's shunted south or if it does comes north the thermal boundary races north and the rain/snow line is up in NY. So F'ing frustrating. I don't ever remember anything like it. Though we have had the exact opposite in some years where whenever it can snow it does and will. So it's one of those balancing acts that nature likes to perform. This winter is just pathetic but there is only one way to go from here. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormy Posted January 28, 2023 Share Posted January 28, 2023 As I said yesterday, January has been a dry month for much of our region. The latest models are now continuing that pattern into February with both snow and rain for many areas. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
H2O Posted January 28, 2023 Share Posted January 28, 2023 March will be rocking 1 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ravens94 Posted January 28, 2023 Share Posted January 28, 2023 6z individual ensembles still have a few amped members for the upcoming and only a few suppressed. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted January 28, 2023 Share Posted January 28, 2023 2 hours ago, CAPE said: There was a bit more of a meridional component to it but guidance has incrementally backed off. Makes sense it would stay mostly across Canada once the -NAO look vanished. What we are left with is flat, fast, west-east flow, with the NS vorticity strung out and separated from the (weak) vorticity impulses ejecting eastward out of the main energy in the SW. There has to be some sort of notable 'kink' in the flow to get moisture transport north into the cold(and dry) air. We will see what happens when the main energy ejects east towards the end of the week- it looks like the Canadian trough/TPV digs more southward as it shifts east, but that might be problematic with timing and degree of cold in place. There is still a path to a win. My lament is that one of the reasons those wins are so few and far between is there are several factors lowering the odds. One example in this case coming up is the lack of penetration south of the boundary. If we had a more expansive cold dome then the path to victory is simple. Root for a stronger SW to throw moisture over it. Simple. Easy. Now we need 10,000 things to go perfectly. We need the confluence to be even stronger to compensate for the fact we have no wiggle room with the cold but that is also more suppressive and so then we need an even stronger SW but to too strong because there is no wiggle room with the cold. We’re trying to thread a needle here on everything. As for the reasons why…the analogs I mentioned were all positive NAO periods. More recently we saw in 2015 that a tpv in eastern Canada with a +NAO can be a frigid result here! Additionally in this case the NAO is more a result than a cause. The NAO trended + because the TPV trended north. We did kinda get head faked again. The tpv does get displaced and rotate across but that displacement is not nearly as severe as initially hinted. That second split I alluded to 4 days ago never happened. It fell apart on guidance, guess when, at about day 7 lol. So we got a less severe displacement which takes it into the NAO domain which causes the trend in the NAO. Instead of having the tpv under and the wave breaking pumping the NAO you end up with the opposite effect. So here the NAO was a product of the cold not making it far enough south not the cause! Before anyone gets defensive and makes this about AGW I am not stating causality. And it’s difficult to quantify any correlation with any one event. There have always been examples of blocking fails. If you look at the scatter plot it -NAO -pna snowfall months I posted there was always some duds. So we can’t say “this NAO failed because of X” regardless of what x is. There is unpredictable variability in this. Same with a tpv displacement. There are enough past fails that we can’t conclusively attribute this one to any specific thing. And that’s not what I’m doing. I’m just noting the issues and logging them. We can discuss the possible why is other appropriate threads! 5 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IronTy Posted January 28, 2023 Share Posted January 28, 2023 41 minutes ago, CAPE said: You sure? Yes. The GFS seems sure at least. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Solution Man Posted January 28, 2023 Share Posted January 28, 2023 31 minutes ago, mappy said: We haven’t sacrificed enough, need half the forum to go out of town or something I did buy a snowblower last year, I will self select 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LeesburgWx Posted January 28, 2023 Share Posted January 28, 2023 Have the spring threads opened up yet? This is pathetic 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted January 28, 2023 Share Posted January 28, 2023 44 minutes ago, Ralph Wiggum said: It befuddles me how we can get a Nina-ish SER base but once there is any semblance of a cold push instead of the SER fighting and creating lift and overunning it just folds and the entire flow gets squashed and sheared/shredded in this progressive pattern. I know it's Nina, progressive is common but seeing zero lift with a H5 look that would suggest such is absolutely mind-boggling. That actually makes sense. One of the reasons I’ve always been skeptical of this period having a high probability to produce. I’m trying to think how to articulate this. It’s like “showing your work” on a math problem you just do in your head. But think of how the flow is affected by having a huge ridge at the mid levels right under us and the Tpv right on top. The whole flow is compressed. Shred factory! That’s not the flow we want to get something to amplify near us. Ideally we want a split flow and a trough to cut across under the tpv. But I can’t because the SER is a beast so it tries to lift over the SER. That only leaves 2 likely scenarios. It can’t lift and gets shredded. It can and cuts. The in between scenario is the least likely and involved needed a thread the needle perfect balance between everything. Add on top of that what I referenced above that the cold lately isn’t even penetrating into the ridge as much as it usually does and it’s even more difficult because any weak boundary wave caused by these weaker vorts in the flow won’t have much frozen associated with them if the cold is mostly to the north of the zone of least resistance in the flow between the TPV and the SER. When I play out this steam interaction in my head the paths to win seem way harder to imagine than the fails. As @Bob Chill likes to say it’s complicated and we don’t do complicated well. 4 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ralph Wiggum Posted January 28, 2023 Share Posted January 28, 2023 16 minutes ago, Solution Man said: I did buy a snowblower last year, I will self select I have snowmen juju all over the house. Into the fiery pits of hell they go. 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAPE Posted January 28, 2023 Share Posted January 28, 2023 10 minutes ago, IronTy said: Yes. The GFS seems sure at least. First time the temp gets even close to freezing up there on the GFS after today is Feb 6. It snows there tomorrow with some rain right along the immediate coast. That's not N Maine though. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Eskimo Joe Posted January 28, 2023 Share Posted January 28, 2023 17 minutes ago, LeesburgWx said: Have the spring threads opened up yet? This is pathetic At this point you almost want to root for the shutout or just have some insanely historic storm better then Jan '96. 3 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IronTy Posted January 28, 2023 Share Posted January 28, 2023 2 minutes ago, CAPE said: First time the temp gets even close to freezing up there on the GFS after today is Feb 6. It snows there tomorrow with some rain right along the immediate coast. That's not N Maine though. 7 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAPE Posted January 28, 2023 Share Posted January 28, 2023 1 minute ago, IronTy said: lol you said on the upcoming storm. Feb 9th? 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ruin Posted January 28, 2023 Share Posted January 28, 2023 9 hours ago, Ji said: Ouch. What would Hitler say about this what the actual fuck with a Low that far south and east no way rain goes that far north the model is smoking something or bad data got in so bad data out 2 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IronTy Posted January 28, 2023 Share Posted January 28, 2023 4 minutes ago, CAPE said: lol you said on the upcoming storm. Feb 9th? Isn't this the "mid/long" range thread? And yeah, it's "upcoming". Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
forkyfork Posted January 28, 2023 Share Posted January 28, 2023 you guys should just give up on snow. i'm hundreds of miles north and the no winter line is even going to get here 7 6 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
dailylurker Posted January 28, 2023 Share Posted January 28, 2023 37 minutes ago, LeesburgWx said: Have the spring threads opened up yet? This is pathetic At least we're allowed to grow weed legally starting in July. Since we're not having winter let's get this warm season started. I'm hoping for a torch at this point. 1 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted January 28, 2023 Share Posted January 28, 2023 23 minutes ago, forkyfork said: you guys should just give up on snow. i'm hundreds of miles north and the no winter line is even going to get here Our way is better 8 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IronTy Posted January 28, 2023 Share Posted January 28, 2023 56 minutes ago, LeesburgWx said: Have the spring threads opened up yet? This is pathetic I ordered a new cold frame for my garden that should arrive today. Clearly winter is a lost cause this year so at least I might as well start growing lettuce. Maybe that'll be enough to turn the tides and usher in record cold and snow. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
WeatherShak Posted January 28, 2023 Share Posted January 28, 2023 At this point you almost want to root for the shutout or just have some insanely historic storm better then Jan '96.Isn’t that our new normal with climate change? Less frequency but bigger storms? 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
IronTy Posted January 28, 2023 Share Posted January 28, 2023 2 minutes ago, WeatherShak said: Isn’t that our new normal with climate change? Less frequency but bigger storms? 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Chris78 Posted January 28, 2023 Share Posted January 28, 2023 51 minutes ago, Ruin said: what the actual fuck with a Low that far south and east no way rain goes that far north the model is smoking something or bad data got in so bad data out Welcome to 2023 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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