psuhoffman Posted January 28, 2023 Share Posted January 28, 2023 7 minutes ago, SnowenOutThere said: @psuhoffman How do you like this amount of frozen on a wave in peak climo? 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
pazzo83 Posted January 28, 2023 Share Posted January 28, 2023 I'd be curious to know how extensively these models are trained on historical data and maybe analogs just don't work anymore? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
mappy Posted January 28, 2023 Share Posted January 28, 2023 50 minutes ago, stormtracker said: While we wait for the next fail suite. It's safe Sorry to interrupt pbp…. I spent that entire video silently belly laughing and cackling, as not to wake the kid, with tears down my face. I needed that, thanks boo. 2 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Solution Man Posted January 28, 2023 Share Posted January 28, 2023 Canadian different, precip further north at 174 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Solution Man Posted January 28, 2023 Share Posted January 28, 2023 She gone Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted January 28, 2023 Share Posted January 28, 2023 Both the gfs and cmc had more robust southern sw....both got squashed anyway Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Amped Posted January 28, 2023 Share Posted January 28, 2023 941MB low off the Greenland coast at 198hrs. I'm sure we'll get a block next year. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DarkSharkWX Posted January 28, 2023 Share Posted January 28, 2023 models are going to continue to mishandle the placement of the TPV until the short-early mid range, especially considering the lack of NATL blocking Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted January 28, 2023 Share Posted January 28, 2023 Ouch. What would Hitler say about this Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted January 28, 2023 Share Posted January 28, 2023 12 minutes ago, Ji said: Ouch. What would Hitler say about this So what if the low takes a perfect track with a high to our north during prime climo. Obviously the problem is the fact there was some solar flare or something. 3 2 1 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Interstate Posted January 28, 2023 Share Posted January 28, 2023 24 minutes ago, Solution Man said: Canadian different, precip further north at 174 What are talking about Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
RedSky Posted January 28, 2023 Share Posted January 28, 2023 Anybody hear from Roger Smith his storm looks hot 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted January 28, 2023 Author Share Posted January 28, 2023 36 minutes ago, mappy said: Sorry to interrupt pbp…. I spent that entire video silently belly laughing and cackling, as not to wake the kid, with tears down my face. I needed that, thanks boo. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
stormtracker Posted January 28, 2023 Author Share Posted January 28, 2023 27 minutes ago, Ji said: Ouch. What would Hitler say about this It really is a shame to see. 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
clskinsfan Posted January 28, 2023 Share Posted January 28, 2023 1 hour ago, stormtracker said: While we wait for the next fail suite. It's safe Holy shit. All time great right there!!! Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted January 28, 2023 Share Posted January 28, 2023 @Ji that Feb 7 fail is the worst. We can’t even dismiss it with “pac puke”. There is an arctic 1045 high over top on Feb 5 after a week straight of epo ridge and flow off the arctic. 24 hours later a weak NS wave comes across that brings a mix of PC and MP air and that alone is enough to in 1 day rout an arctic airmass and totally wreck the thermals to Canada so bad that the next day a storm can take a perfect track with the next polar high coming across and it doesn’t matter. Do you know how unlikely it is to get snow if we need to perfectly time up a fresh arctic high exactly with a perfect track low? How often does that ever happen. Ugh. Fuck this winter. Fuck whatever the hell is going on. 2 2 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Heisy Posted January 28, 2023 Share Posted January 28, 2023 [mention=514]Ji[/mention] that Feb 7 fail is the worst. We can’t even dismiss it with “pac puke”. There is an arctic 1045 high over top on Feb 5 after a week straight of epo ridge and flow off the arctic. 24 hours later a weak NS wave comes across that brings a mix of PC and MP air and that alone is enough to in 1 day rout an arctic airmass and totally wreck the thermals to Canada so bad that the next day a storm can take a perfect track with the next polar high coming across and it doesn’t matter. Do you know how unlikely it is to get snow if we need to perfectly time up a fresh arctic high exactly with a perfect track low? How often does that ever happen. Ugh. Fuck this winter. Fuck whatever the hell is going on. That was brutal 00z as expected. That day 9-10 event on the GFS had the Hp build in too late, but it’s absolutely horrible how nothing can go right. Praying for a March miracle, but at this rate just don’t see it happening. Some winters nothing goes right and this is def one of those . Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
psuhoffman Posted January 28, 2023 Share Posted January 28, 2023 Or the fact a TPV cuts across eastern Canada and the cold boundary never even gets that far south of us at any point! Look at previous periods a tpv was there and how cold it was here. There wetent many snowstorms in the analogs to day 8 when I checked yesterday but most were frigid periods with highs in the 20s or teens and single digit lows! We don’t even really get that cold this time. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Interstate Posted January 28, 2023 Share Posted January 28, 2023 WE SUCK Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
AtlanticWx Posted January 28, 2023 Share Posted January 28, 2023 euro was an awesome step in the right direction, very wet snow near va beach around hour 156 or something perhaps we go back to what 00z/06z runs were last night soon enough Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Heisy Posted January 28, 2023 Share Posted January 28, 2023 Both the gfs and cmc had more robust southern sw....both got squashed anyway Yea, if you go back and look at the euro from a few nights ago it got all the TPV energy out ahead of the southern ULL. Now the models have energy rotating N of the southern vort, just no space for it to come north. Shame . Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
AtlanticWx Posted January 28, 2023 Share Posted January 28, 2023 13 minutes ago, Heisy said: Yea, if you go back and look at the euro from a few nights ago it got all the TPV energy out ahead of the southern ULL. Now the models have energy rotating N of the southern vort, just no space for it to come north. Shame . more than enough time for it to trend held back/amped. wouldn't worry Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
AtlanticWx Posted January 28, 2023 Share Posted January 28, 2023 00z eps coming in w more confluence and a more amped S/W. let's see how this trends tmr, i have a good feeling but we'll see 2 1 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Weather Will Posted January 28, 2023 Share Posted January 28, 2023 WB 6Z GFS. Upcoming 7 days is dry and with slightly above average temperatures. 3 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAPE Posted January 28, 2023 Share Posted January 28, 2023 6 hours ago, psuhoffman said: Or the fact a TPV cuts across eastern Canada and the cold boundary never even gets that far south of us at any point! Look at previous periods a tpv was there and how cold it was here. There wetent many snowstorms in the analogs to day 8 when I checked yesterday but most were frigid periods with highs in the 20s or teens and single digit lows! We don’t even really get that cold this time. There was a bit more of a meridional component to it but guidance has incrementally backed off. Makes sense it would stay mostly across Canada once the -NAO look vanished. What we are left with is flat, fast, west-east flow, with the NS vorticity strung out and separated from the (weak) vorticity impulses ejecting eastward out of the main energy in the SW. There has to be some sort of notable 'kink' in the flow to get moisture transport north into the cold(and dry) air. We will see what happens when the main energy ejects east towards the end of the week- it looks like the Canadian trough/TPV digs more southward as it shifts east, but that might be problematic with timing and degree of cold in place. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAPE Posted January 28, 2023 Share Posted January 28, 2023 Our best shot next week might be next Friday-Sat when the main energy comes east, if its cold enough and dependent on the TPV timing as it shifts east. 0z EPS depiction looks pretty good. 3 1 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAPE Posted January 28, 2023 Share Posted January 28, 2023 0z EPS also suggests light snow across the area with the midweek wave Wed into Thursday. The snow mean is 2.5 to 3.5" in our region through next Sunday. 4 Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ji Posted January 28, 2023 Share Posted January 28, 2023 0z EPS also suggests light snow across the area with the midweek wave Wed into Thursday. The snow mean is 2.5 to 3.5" in our region through next Sunday.Wow. Any big hits in there? Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
snowmagnet Posted January 28, 2023 Share Posted January 28, 2023 15 hours ago, anotherman said: Uh, yeah. Also, has the Canadian ever been right? Jan 6, 2018. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
CAPE Posted January 28, 2023 Share Posted January 28, 2023 11 minutes ago, Ji said: 16 minutes ago, CAPE said: 0z EPS also suggests light snow across the area with the midweek wave Wed into Thursday. The snow mean is 2.5 to 3.5" in our region through next Sunday. Wow. Any big hits in there? Like 6"+? A few for next weekend and even into early the following week. The midweek deal looks like 1-2 or 2-4 on a good chunk of members- some right over us, others a bit south or north. Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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